Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong interest in new consumption trends, particularly in cosmetics and medical beauty sectors, with increased fund holdings in these areas [11][34] - The report indicates a mixed performance across sectors, with social services and retail showing varied fund allocation changes [34] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q2 2025, fund holdings in social services, retail, and beauty care sectors changed by -0.15pct, -0.76pct, and +0.08pct, reaching 1.11%, 1.87%, and 0.54% respectively [4][14] - Excluding Alibaba and Meituan, the fund holdings for social services and retail were 0.61% each [4][14] Sub-industry Performance - The cosmetics sector saw a significant increase of +0.08pct in fund holdings, while tourism retail II also increased by +0.029pct [9][17] - Other sectors like hotel and restaurant services, and general retail experienced declines in fund holdings [9][17] Northbound Capital Movement - In Q2 2025, northbound capital saw a net inflow of 6.264 billion yuan into the retail sector, while the beauty care and social services sectors experienced net outflows of 0.526 billion yuan and 0.818 billion yuan respectively [10][30] - Key companies with increased foreign capital allocation included Fengshang Culture and ShouLai Hotel [30][31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests embracing new industrial opportunities and capitalizing on product upcycles, recommending companies such as Laopu Gold, Maogeping, and Runben [11][34] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued retail/service companies with improving fundamentals [11][34]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities highlights the emergence of a "new consumption" sector driven by external market fluctuations, subdued domestic demand, and a scarcity of quality consumer assets, suggesting that structured opportunities will continue to evolve in the market [1] Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The "new consumption" trend is characterized as a strong alpha market that is less affected by macro disturbances, with quality new consumer brands experiencing growth due to structural dividends and product cycles [2] - Sectors such as beauty care and gold jewelry are expected to see a recovery in optional consumption, with brands that have differentiated market experiences likely to achieve counter-cyclical growth [2] Group 2: IP and AI Opportunities - The IP retail industry in China, exemplified by companies like Sanrio, has maintained high levels of prosperity since 2021, with a complete and high-quality industrial chain emerging from content production to diverse consumer monetization [3] - The AI sector is also witnessing increased application scenarios and consumer payment conversions, particularly in human resource management and B2B cross-border e-commerce [3] Group 3: Offline Retail and Services - The overall revenue growth for offline services and retail is expected to remain under pressure in 2024 and Q1 2025, but there are signs of improvement in consumption data at both the macro and micro levels [4] - The combination of policy support and low base effects is anticipated to sustain the upward trend in consumption data, with specific sectors like hotels and personal services showing signs of stabilization and growth [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][19]. Core Views - The company is solidifying its position as a leading state-owned film and television enterprise while actively developing a multi-product cultural platform centered around "IP+" [2]. - The company is transitioning into a diversified, light-asset, platform-oriented cultural enterprise, expanding into various sectors including short dramas, interactive dramas, animation, gaming, cultural tourism, and performance economy [11]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2023 is 461 million, with a decrease of 1.1% from the previous year. Revenue is expected to decline to 366 million in 2024, followed by a significant increase of 31.5% to 481 million in 2025 [4][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 28 million in 2023, with a substantial increase to 56 million by 2025, reflecting an 84.2% growth [4][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.06 in 2023 to 0.12 in 2025 [4][12]. Business Segments - The film and television segment is projected to generate 35.29 million in revenue in 2024, accounting for 96.4% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 18.9% [11][13]. - The concert business is expected to contribute 1.21 billion in revenue in 2024, marking a 147.2% year-on-year increase [13]. - The company has strategic partnerships to explore new business opportunities in the performance and cultural tourism sectors [11]. Valuation - The report uses a price-to-book (PB) valuation method, applying a 4x PB multiple for 2025, leading to a target price of 8.88 per share [11][14]. - The average PB for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 5.71 [14]. Market Data - The current stock price is 7.62, with a market capitalization of 3.619 billion [6][12]. - The stock has shown a 39% increase over the past 12 months [10]. Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 2.9% in 2023 to 6.1% by 2027 [4][12]. - The net profit margin is expected to rise from 5.9% in 2023 to 14.0% in 2027 [12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing strategic collaborations and has over 10 S-level film projects in the pipeline [11]. - It is also investing in technology partnerships to integrate AI and XR into its content creation processes [11].