回顾2025年，巨星传奇围绕"IP+"融合模式加速推进全球IP生态构建，在持续巩固"IP+文旅商体验"融合业态的同时，前瞻布局"IP+AI+机器人"新蓝海，推动 IP商业价值在更广阔场景中反复释放。 12月22日，巨星传奇（6683.HK）在格隆汇"金格奖"年度卓越公司评选中荣获"年度成长价值奖"。该奖项的授予既是对公司IP长效运营能力与阶段性经营成 果的高度认可，也反映出市场对其长期成长潜力积极预期。 构建全球IP生态池，前瞻卡位稀缺资源 自2017年成立以来，巨星传奇（6683.HK）始终聚焦IP创造与营运，并以IP赋能驱动AI+机器人及健康生活新消费业务的协同发展。在IP打造方面，公司深度 绑定周杰伦、刘畊宏等头部艺人资源，成功孵化"周同学""刘教练"等现象级IP，累计粉丝覆盖超过2.8亿人次，构筑起高黏性的IP生态基本盘。 今年以来，巨星加速构建全球IP生态池。一方面战略入股权志龙经纪公司Galaxy，提前锁定全球顶级艺人资源；另一方面战略入股国家体育场（鸟巢），打 通国家级演出场景的长期合作通道。依托"顶级IP × 顶级场景"的稀缺组合，公司得以深度嵌入全球头部艺人与大型活动的合作链条，持续打造差异 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, anticipating potential market resilience in 2026 due to policy support and corporate improvements [1] 2025 Review - In the first nine months of 2025, China's retail sales reached 365.877 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with retail sales of non-automotive consumer goods growing by 4.9% [1] - Cosmetics sales increased by 3.9%, while gold and jewelry sales surged by 11.5% due to a low base last year and rising gold prices [1] - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports amounted to approximately 2.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.4% growth despite external tariff impacts [1] Structural Highlights - The consumption landscape in 2025 shows structural highlights in sectors like pets, trendy toys, personal care, and jewelry, driven by new consumer insights and product innovation [2] - The new consumption industry trends and the reversal expectations of traditional consumption are identified as two core themes, with initial positive market performance followed by a cooling phase [2] 2026 Outlook - New Market: Exploration of incremental growth opportunities in domestic markets and continued overseas expansion as a key strategy for Chinese brands [3] - New Demand: Insights into emerging consumer preferences will drive product innovation focused on emotional and practical value [3] - Platformization: In a competitive environment, companies need to develop platform mechanisms and explore new opportunities to ensure sustainable growth [3]

Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, highlighting the potential for recovery in consumer demand and the importance of adapting to new market conditions [1][4][10] 2025 Industry Review - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's retail sales reached 365,877 billion yuan, growing by 4.5% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales increasing by 4.9% [2][10] - The cosmetics sector saw a stable growth of 3.9%, while gold and jewelry sales surged by 11.5% due to low base effects and rising gold prices [2][26] - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports amounted to approximately 2.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.4% despite external pressures [2][33] 2026 Outlook - New markets will be explored, including offline channel adjustments and innovations in instant retail, alongside continued overseas expansion opportunities [3][61] - New consumer demands will focus on emotional and practical value, leveraging AI and IP for product innovation [3][66] - A platform-based approach is necessary to ensure sustainable growth amid intensifying competition and shorter product life cycles [3][66] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in beauty care, gold and jewelry, cross-border e-commerce, and offline retail, with specific recommendations for companies like Up Beauty, Chow Tai Fook, and Yonghui Superstores [4][34] - The beauty care sector is expected to benefit from product innovation and platform capabilities, while gold and jewelry companies are advised to capitalize on differentiated designs [4][45] - Cross-border e-commerce firms are projected to thrive as external tariff impacts diminish, with recommendations for companies like Anker Innovations and Focus Technology [4][54] Consumer Behavior Trends - The report notes a structural shift in consumer preferences, with a growing emphasis on emotional value and product differentiation, particularly among younger demographics [3][78] - Instant retail is identified as a significant growth area, with the market expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [3][80] Cross-Border E-commerce Insights - Cross-border e-commerce continues to show resilience, with exports to the EU growing by 8.4% while exports to the US declined by 17% due to tariff impacts [33][87] - Successful brands in overseas markets are those that effectively combine global branding with localized operational strategies [87]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is currently facing resistance at 26,000 points, influenced by the extension of the US-China tariff truce and a more dovish stance from the US Federal Reserve, which may lead to interest rate cuts [2][4] - The overall market is active with capital rotating among different sectors, as investors await earnings reports from major companies [2] Short-term Sector Outlook - Focus on upcoming economic indicators such as US GDP, personal consumption, and core PCE, along with earnings from companies like Alibaba, Li Auto, ZTE, and China Pacific Insurance [3] - Anticipation of new policies in China aimed at expanding service consumption and promoting AI and IP-related sectors [3] Company News - Meituan reported a significant 89% drop in adjusted profit for Q2, falling short of expectations, while Ctrip's mid-term profit rose by 12% with a share buyback plan of 39 billion yuan [4][10] - Anta Sports experienced a 9% decline in mid-term profit but is forming a joint venture with South Korean fashion platform MUSINSA [10] - Zhuhai Gold's shareholders plan to reduce holdings to cash out approximately 2 billion yuan [10] - Kangfang Biologics is raising 3.5 billion yuan through a discounted share placement [10] Macro Focus - China's industrial profits fell by 1.7% in the first seven months, with state-owned enterprises seeing a 7.5% decline [9] - The Chinese government is set to introduce measures to boost service consumption, focusing on high-quality service supply and encouraging foreign investment in various sectors [9] - Huawei is set to launch a new foldable phone on September 4, indicating ongoing innovation in the tech sector [9] Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,202, down 1.27% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a 27.52% increase [5] - Major companies like Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba have experienced declines in their ADRs, reflecting broader market trends [5] Upcoming Developments - Zijin Mining plans to raise approximately 2 billion USD through an IPO in Hong Kong [10] - Chery Automobile is preparing for an overseas listing in Hong Kong, aiming to issue up to 699 million shares [10] - Hesai Technology is also looking to list in Hong Kong, targeting around 300 million USD [10]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong interest in new consumption trends, particularly in cosmetics and medical beauty sectors, with increased fund holdings in these areas [11][34] - The report indicates a mixed performance across sectors, with social services and retail showing varied fund allocation changes [34] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q2 2025, fund holdings in social services, retail, and beauty care sectors changed by -0.15pct, -0.76pct, and +0.08pct, reaching 1.11%, 1.87%, and 0.54% respectively [4][14] - Excluding Alibaba and Meituan, the fund holdings for social services and retail were 0.61% each [4][14] Sub-industry Performance - The cosmetics sector saw a significant increase of +0.08pct in fund holdings, while tourism retail II also increased by +0.029pct [9][17] - Other sectors like hotel and restaurant services, and general retail experienced declines in fund holdings [9][17] Northbound Capital Movement - In Q2 2025, northbound capital saw a net inflow of 6.264 billion yuan into the retail sector, while the beauty care and social services sectors experienced net outflows of 0.526 billion yuan and 0.818 billion yuan respectively [10][30] - Key companies with increased foreign capital allocation included Fengshang Culture and ShouLai Hotel [30][31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests embracing new industrial opportunities and capitalizing on product upcycles, recommending companies such as Laopu Gold, Maogeping, and Runben [11][34] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued retail/service companies with improving fundamentals [11][34]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities highlights the emergence of a "new consumption" sector driven by external market fluctuations, subdued domestic demand, and a scarcity of quality consumer assets, suggesting that structured opportunities will continue to evolve in the market [1] Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The "new consumption" trend is characterized as a strong alpha market that is less affected by macro disturbances, with quality new consumer brands experiencing growth due to structural dividends and product cycles [2] - Sectors such as beauty care and gold jewelry are expected to see a recovery in optional consumption, with brands that have differentiated market experiences likely to achieve counter-cyclical growth [2] Group 2: IP and AI Opportunities - The IP retail industry in China, exemplified by companies like Sanrio, has maintained high levels of prosperity since 2021, with a complete and high-quality industrial chain emerging from content production to diverse consumer monetization [3] - The AI sector is also witnessing increased application scenarios and consumer payment conversions, particularly in human resource management and B2B cross-border e-commerce [3] Group 3: Offline Retail and Services - The overall revenue growth for offline services and retail is expected to remain under pressure in 2024 and Q1 2025, but there are signs of improvement in consumption data at both the macro and micro levels [4] - The combination of policy support and low base effects is anticipated to sustain the upward trend in consumption data, with specific sectors like hotels and personal services showing signs of stabilization and growth [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][19]. Core Views - The company is solidifying its position as a leading state-owned film and television enterprise while actively developing a multi-product cultural platform centered around "IP+" [2]. - The company is transitioning into a diversified, light-asset, platform-oriented cultural enterprise, expanding into various sectors including short dramas, interactive dramas, animation, gaming, cultural tourism, and performance economy [11]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2023 is 461 million, with a decrease of 1.1% from the previous year. Revenue is expected to decline to 366 million in 2024, followed by a significant increase of 31.5% to 481 million in 2025 [4][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 28 million in 2023, with a substantial increase to 56 million by 2025, reflecting an 84.2% growth [4][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.06 in 2023 to 0.12 in 2025 [4][12]. Business Segments - The film and television segment is projected to generate 35.29 million in revenue in 2024, accounting for 96.4% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 18.9% [11][13]. - The concert business is expected to contribute 1.21 billion in revenue in 2024, marking a 147.2% year-on-year increase [13]. - The company has strategic partnerships to explore new business opportunities in the performance and cultural tourism sectors [11]. Valuation - The report uses a price-to-book (PB) valuation method, applying a 4x PB multiple for 2025, leading to a target price of 8.88 per share [11][14]. - The average PB for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 5.71 [14]. Market Data - The current stock price is 7.62, with a market capitalization of 3.619 billion [6][12]. - The stock has shown a 39% increase over the past 12 months [10]. Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 2.9% in 2023 to 6.1% by 2027 [4][12]. - The net profit margin is expected to rise from 5.9% in 2023 to 14.0% in 2027 [12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing strategic collaborations and has over 10 S-level film projects in the pipeline [11]. - It is also investing in technology partnerships to integrate AI and XR into its content creation processes [11].