资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 3 月 2 日，四大期指当月合约涨跌互现。IF 上涨 0.07%，IH 上涨 0.08%，IC 下跌 0.07%，IM 下跌 1.15%。 本交易日来看，期指总成交回升，显示投资者交易热情有所升温；具体来看，IF 总成交增加 46751 手，IH 总成交增加 18781 手，IC 总成交增加 49152 手。IM 总成交增加 70153 手。持仓方面，IF 总持仓增 加 13048 手，IH 总持仓增加 4743 手，IC 总持仓增加 12026 手；IM 总持仓增加 17661 手。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 02 月 27 日 策略点评 证券分析师 低开高走，震荡上行 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2026 年 2 月 27 日周五，A 股市场低开高走，延续春节后震荡上行走势；国 债期货市场小幅震荡；商品指数上涨，沪锡领涨。 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：低开高走，震荡上行 低开高走，震荡上行。今日 A 股市场低开高走，上证指数全天在 4130‑4170 点区 间震荡，最终收于 4162.88 点，涨幅 0.39%；深证成指相对偏弱，收于 14495.09 点，微跌 0.06%；创业板指全天弱势运行，收于 3310.30 点，跌幅 1.04%；万得 全 A 指数上涨 0.41%，反映市场整体赚钱效应温和。全市场 3267 只个股上涨， 2066 只下 ...

上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种均小幅走低。具体来看，隔夜Shibor下跌1.00BP，报1.3680%；7天Shibor下跌4.00BP，报1.4570%；14天Shibor 下跌4.20BP，报1.5290%。 | 上海银行间同业拆放利率（2月26日） | | --- | 新华财经北京2月26日电（高二山）人民银行26日开展3205亿元7天期逆回购操作，鉴于当日有4000亿元14天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净回笼795亿元。 来源：全国银行间同业拆借中心 据上海国际货币经纪公司交易员消息，26日资金面整体呈均衡偏松态势。早盘大行国股行隔夜和跨月融出活跃。开盘隔夜押利率存单成交在加权+8和定价 1.55%附近，押信用成交在1.58%左右。跨月方面， 4D押利率存单成交1.62%，7D押利率存单成交在1.58%-1.60%左右，押信用成交在1.60%-1.62%附近。临 近午盘，资金面转松，隔夜押利率存单成交下探至1.47%-1.48%区间，押信用成交价在1.50%-1.53%；跨月方面，4D押利率存单在1.56%-1.57%附近成交，7D 押利率存单融出在1.53%-1.55%附近；14天非银 ...

今天是正月初四迎灶神，除尘纳福万事兴！ 先来看海外市场表现。 截至19日收盘，现货黄金涨0.42%，报4998.50美元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货涨0.09%，报5014美元/盎 司。现货白银涨1.32%，报78.2375美元/盎司。COMEX白银期货涨0.82%。 美股三大股指收盘下跌，道指跌0.54%，纳指跌0.31%，标普500指数跌0.28%。个股方面，西方石油涨 超9%，闪迪涨超3%，西部数据跌超4%。 纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.24美元/桶，收于66.43美元/桶，涨幅为1.9%；4月交 货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.31美元/桶，收于71.66美元/桶，涨幅为1.86%。 消息面上，美国商务部19日发布的数据显示，美国2025年商品贸易逆差金额达到创纪录的12409亿美 元，比前一年增加255亿美元，增幅为2.1%。 数据显示，美国2025年商品出口和进口总额分别为21975亿美元和34384亿美元。其中，美国与欧盟的商 品贸易逆差为2188亿美元，比前年减少171亿美元，而美国与墨西哥、越南的商品贸易逆差分别为1969 亿美元和1782亿美元，分别比前年增加254亿美 ...

利弗莫尔中概股龙头指数收跌0.54%。成分股中，陆金所跌超3%，霸王茶姬、携程集团等跌超2%； AHG涨超10%，NEGG、新濠博亚娱乐涨超4%，希尔薇金属矿业、华住等涨超1%。 富时A50期指连续夜盘收跌0.34%，报14814点。 当地时间2月19日，美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.54%，纳指跌0.31%，标普500指数跌0.28%。 大型科技股多数收跌，苹果、奈飞、英特尔跌超1%，微软、谷歌、英伟达小幅下跌；亚马逊、特斯 拉、Meta小幅上涨。迪尔农机收涨12%，创收盘历史新高。 现货黄金、现货白银收涨。 相关知情人士称，若获得授权，该行动可能在数日内展开，目标将锁定少数军事或政府设施，意在向德 黑兰施压，而非立即发动全面战争。相关方案被视为分阶段行动的第一步。 纽约原油CFD报66.691美元/桶，涨幅2.52%；布伦特原油报71.534美元/桶，涨幅2.53%。 据媒体报道，有分析师指出，地缘政治担忧加剧导致股市走低，同时推动油价持续飙升。 据央视新闻，当地时间2月19日，美国方面消息称，美国总统特朗普正权衡对伊朗实施一次"有限规 模"的初步军事打击，以迫使其接受美国提出的核协议要求。 据称，若伊 ...

Group 1: US Stock Market Performance - The three major US stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.07% to 49,533.19 points, the S&P 500 up 0.10% to 6,843.22 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.14% to 22,578.38 points [1] - Large technology stocks showed mixed results, with the US Tech Giants Index rising 0.53%. Apple increased by over 3%, while Tesla, Microsoft, and Google fell by over 1% [1] - Bank stocks collectively rose, with JPMorgan up over 1%, Goldman Sachs up over 1%, and Citigroup up over 2% [1] - Energy stocks declined across the board, with ExxonMobil down over 1% and Chevron down 0.75% [1] - Airline stocks saw an increase, with Southwest Airlines up over 6% and American Airlines up over 3% [1] - Semiconductor stocks had mixed results, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 0.02%, while Broadcom rose over 2% [1] Group 2: Chinese Stocks and Economic Outlook - Chinese stocks showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.10% and the Wind China Tech Leaders Index down 0.28% [2] - Individual stocks such as Luokung Technology surged nearly 16%, while companies like TAL Education and Tencent Music fell over 3% [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Barr indicated that interest rates are likely to remain stable for some time, with no evidence suggesting that artificial intelligence is causing rising unemployment [2] - The job market is stabilizing, but inflation risks remain significant, with the Fed cautious about adjusting policies until more evidence of inflation returning to the 2% target is observed [2] Group 3: European Stock Market and Commodity Prices - European stock indices all rose, with the FTSE 100 up 0.79%, CAC 40 up 0.54%, and DAX up 0.80% [3] - International oil prices saw a slight decline, with light crude oil futures down 0.89% to $62.33 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.79% to $67.42 per barrel [3] - Precious metals futures generally fell, with COMEX gold futures down 2.33% to $4,896.10 per ounce and silver down 3.93% to $73.55 per ounce [3]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's Q4 holdings report indicates a strategy focused on maintaining core technology positions, reducing index exposure, and enhancing active selection capabilities [1] Group 1: Overall Holdings - Morgan Stanley's total holdings value for Q4 reached $1.67 trillion, a 1.2% increase from $1.65 trillion in the previous quarter [1] - The fund added 454 new stocks, increased positions in 4,007 stocks, reduced positions in 3,028 stocks, and completely exited 415 stocks [1] - The top ten holdings accounted for 22.15% of the total portfolio value [1] Group 2: Major Holdings - Apple (AAPL.US) became the largest holding with an increase of approximately 1.38 million shares [1] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) remained the second-largest holding with an increase of nearly 780,000 shares [1] - Microsoft (MSFT.US) dropped from first to third place but still saw an increase of about 980,000 shares [1] - Google Class A (GOOGL.US) was reduced by approximately 150,000 shares, while Google Class C (GOOG.US) was increased by 1.13 million shares, indicating a shift in stock type optimization [1] - Amazon (AMZN.US) was reduced by about 1.28 million shares, ranking fifth [1] Group 3: Sector Adjustments - In the technology sector, Meta (META.US) saw an increase of about 820,000 shares, while Tesla (TSLA.US) was reduced by 360,000 shares [2] - AMD (AMD.US) was reduced by 5.02 million shares, and Palantir (PLTR.US) was reduced by 103,000 shares [2] - Defensive and high-dividend sectors, such as healthcare and consumer staples, saw reductions in holdings, including Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US), AbbVie (ABBV.US), and Walmart (WMT.US) [2][3] Group 4: New Positions and ETF Strategy - Morgan Stanley increased positions in JPMorgan (JPM.US), Uber (UBER.US), and gold ETF (GLD.US) [4] - New investments included Medline (MDLN.US), Total (TTE.US), Qnity Electronics (Q.US), Solstice (SOLS.US), and Dream Dragon (MICC.US) [4] - The decline in ETF positions suggests a preference for individual stock selection to achieve excess returns rather than relying on broad index exposure [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the extravagant year-end rewards given by various companies, particularly in the tech and gaming sectors, showcasing a trend of high-value prizes and bonuses that have sparked discussions about wealth display and corporate culture [3][31]. Group 1: Year-End Bonuses and Prizes - Henan Mining Crane Co., Ltd. distributed over 60 million yuan in cash bonuses, totaling more than 180 million yuan when including online distributions [3][31]. - Ying Shi Innovation is noted for having the highest total value of prizes, including five apartments and luxury cars, making it the "king of year-end rewards" [4][31]. - Mu Tong Technology awarded an average of 5 grams of pure gold bracelets per employee, marking it as the company with the highest gold distribution rate [5][31]. Group 2: Notable Company Practices - Ying Shi Innovation's year-end event featured five apartments and luxury cars, with an 80% prize-winning rate for attendees [6][32]. - Ji Bi Te's year-end event included a mountain of iPhones and a million-yuan property reward for the game producer, reflecting a significant profit increase of 79%-97% year-on-year [10][36]. - Li Li Si's event offered over 1,100 prizes, including a 30g gold bar and high-end electronics, ensuring participation from all employees, including interns [37][41]. Group 3: Unique Reward Structures - Mei Tu's year-end event included stock awards, granting each employee 1,357 shares, marking the third time since its IPO that stock has been distributed [13][39]. - Chasing Technology transformed its year-end meeting into a concert, rewarding all employees with 1 gram of gold and offering travel incentives [16][42]. - FunPlus set up multiple prize tiers, including cash and high-end electronics, ensuring that even those who did not win major prizes received a cash bonus [27][53]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Expert Opinions - Analysts noted that many companies are using year-end events as marketing opportunities, but there is a risk of these events becoming displays of wealth, particularly among smaller tech firms [29][55]. - The trend of high-value rewards is seen as a way to attract and retain talent, but experts caution against fostering a culture of envy and competition among employees [29][55].

Group 1: Fund Issuance and Market Trends - In January 2026, the number of new fund issuances reached 169, the highest level since March 2023, with several funds selling out in one day and some triggering proportionate allotment due to oversubscription [1] - The number of newly established public FOFs (funds of funds) in 2026 has reached 31, a year-on-year increase of 244.44%, driven by strong demand for stable value-added products and continuous innovation in product offerings [1] Group 2: Bond Market and Investment Products - The issuance of pure bond funds has significantly declined in 2026, with only a few new pure bond funds launched, while "fixed income +" funds continue to dominate the new bond fund market [2] - The demand from residents and institutions for "fixed income +" funds is expected to support their development, although the industry faces challenges such as pressure on bond market yields and increased competition [2] Group 3: Corporate Developments - Mercedes-Benz is recalling 11,895 vehicles in the U.S. due to a potential fire risk from high-voltage batteries [3] - Dream Dragon Ice Cream reported a revenue of 65.175 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, but net profit plummeted by 48.4% to 2.533 billion yuan [3] - Lantu Motors announced plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 19, 2026, with approximately 885.38 million H-shares [4] - Zhengzhou Bank's president resigned after one year due to personal reasons [4] Group 4: Financial Challenges and Risks - Baili Technology is facing overdue debts and is in communication with creditors to resolve the situation, which may impact its financing capabilities [5] - ST Haihua announced a projected revenue of 336 million yuan for 2025, with a net profit loss of approximately 70 million yuan, putting its stock at risk of delisting [5] - ST Zhongdi's stock experienced abnormal fluctuations, with a projected revenue of 180 to 220 million yuan for 2025, alongside significant expected losses [7] Group 5: Fundraising and Market Positioning - Fulongma plans to raise up to 1.005 billion yuan through a stock issuance to enhance its competitiveness in the environmental services market [8] - Xinlitai has submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [9]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen is pushing for high-quality development in cross-border tourism and consumption, with a focus on enhancing the business environment at the Shenzhen-Hong Kong port and integrating cultural and tourism resources to become a world-class tourist destination and international consumption center [1][2]. Group 1: Optimizing Payment Environment - The port is crucial for cross-border tourism, with Shenzhen's annual entry and exit numbers reaching 273 million, a historical high, and foreign entries maintaining the second position among Chinese cities for two consecutive years [2]. - Issues such as "foreign exchange scalpers" and irregular currency exchange practices at ports are highlighted as detrimental to the financial order and international image of Shenzhen [2][3]. - Recommendations include enhancing foreign currency exchange services, promoting legal currency exchange methods, and establishing comprehensive service centers at ports to improve the visitor experience [3]. Group 2: Attracting and Retaining Tourists - To convert transient visitors into repeat customers, a proposal for the Shenzhen Bay Avenue business district is presented, emphasizing the integration of commerce, culture, and tourism [4][5]. - Suggestions include organizing promotional activities, shopping festivals, and targeted consumption vouchers to stimulate cross-border spending [4]. - The importance of unique offerings and events, such as food festivals and sports events, is emphasized to attract younger consumers and cross-border tourists [4][5]. Group 3: Leveraging Technology in Tourism - A proposal to create an "AI + Cultural Tourism" demonstration zone in Bao'an District aims to utilize Shenzhen's technological strengths to enhance tourism experiences [6]. - The establishment of a "Bay Area Cultural Tourism Super Brain" is suggested to integrate digital tourism initiatives and create a unified data platform for better visitor engagement [6]. - The concept of "Shenzhen Intelligent Manufacturing · Global Experience Port" is introduced, encouraging local tech companies to set up flagship stores that offer hands-on experiences and immediate product delivery [7].