冰火两重天的行业悖论 近日，当中国北方即将入冬寒意渐浓之时，作为中国在线旅游（OTA）行业的绝对霸主，携程发布了第三季度财报，一串数字背后却引发了行业的争论。 根据携程的财报数据，2025第三季度营收同比增长约16%，达到183亿元人民币。净利润达到惊人的199亿元人民币，但这一数字不仅包含主营业务增长带 来的收益，也包含其通过投资组合的出售获得的价值回报。 另一方面，各地酒店实体的生意却没有相应的增长，很多商家反馈"没有利润"。这种强烈的反差，平台方的利润收割与酒店经营的生存挣扎，构成了2025 年中国酒旅行业最绚丽也最残酷的商业图景。 行业内关于对OTA吸血的指责声浪从未像今天这样高涨。为何在同一个生态系统中，一个产业链核心连接点的携程能够实现赢家通吃，而作为服务最终提 供者的酒店业却陷入了增收不增利的泥潭？ 要理解这一现象，首先必须对2025年Q3的财务表现进行详细的拆解。这并非简单的数字罗列，而是要透视其商业模式演化与行业话语权变迁。 携程第三季度的净营收为183亿元人民币，同比增长近16%。在当前的经济环境下，两位数的增长本身就极为罕见。更值得关注的变化是其收入构成的： | 业务板块 | 2025 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel (00780), highlighting robust performance in Q3 with double-digit growth in both revenue and adjusted net profit, driven by strong core OTA business performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tongcheng Travel achieved revenue of 5.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.060 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points [1] - The core OTA business revenue reached 4.609 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [2] Group 2: Business Segments - Q3 2025 revenue from accommodation bookings was 1.579 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, driven by strong summer demand and an increase in high-quality hotel bookings [2] - Transportation ticketing revenue was 2.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, with international ticketing contributing 6% to total transportation revenue, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Other business revenue reached 821 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 34.9%, primarily due to strong performance in hotel management [2] Group 3: Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 65.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 19.2%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance operational efficiency, with the AI trip planning tool DeepTrip attracting millions of users [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of annual paying users reached 253 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, with over 87% of registered users residing in non-first-tier cities [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, the company expects core OTA business revenue to maintain double-digit year-on-year growth, with other business revenue driven by hotel management expected to remain high [4]

Core Insights - The report from Everbright Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel (00780), highlighting robust performance in Q3 with double-digit growth in both revenue and adjusted net profit, driven by strong performance in the core OTA business, particularly in international ticketing and hotel management [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tongcheng Travel achieved revenue of 5.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%; adjusted net profit reached 1.060 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year; the adjusted net profit margin was 19.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The core OTA business revenue reached 4.609 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [2] Business Segmentation - Accommodation booking revenue in Q3 2025 was 1.579 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, driven by strong summer demand and an increase in high-quality hotel bookings [2] - Transportation ticketing revenue was 2.209 billion yuan, a 9.0% year-on-year increase, supported by the growth in international ticketing, which accounted for 6% of total transportation revenue, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Other business revenue reached 821 million yuan, a significant increase of 34.9% year-on-year, primarily due to strong performance in hotel management [2] Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 65.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year; the adjusted net profit margin was 19.2%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance operational efficiency, with the AI trip planning tool DeepTrip attracting millions of users [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of annual paying users reached 253 million, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, with over 87% of registered users residing in non-first-tier cities [3] Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, the core OTA business is expected to maintain double-digit year-on-year revenue growth, with other business revenues likely to be driven by hotel management [4]

Core Viewpoint - Morningstar maintains a fair value of HKD 27 for Tongcheng Travel (00780), highlighting strong growth in accommodation bookings as a key driver for a 10% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 [1] Financial Performance - The company's Q3 revenue growth of 10% is primarily attributed to robust growth in accommodation bookings, aligning with expectations [1] - Operating profit margin exceeded expectations by 100 basis points, with core revenue growing by 15% [1] Growth Catalysts - The firm believes that the expansion of international business and profit margin will serve as long-term growth catalysts [1] - Tongcheng's hotel room nights are expected to increase by 23%, indicating strong demand [1] Future Projections - The group anticipates a 15-20% growth in core business revenue for Q4, which includes additional revenue from the recent acquisition of Wanda [1] - Excluding the acquisition, the projected revenue is still expected to achieve double-digit growth [1] Profitability Insights - The monetization rate for international tourism is approximately 10-15%, higher than the 5-6% for domestic low-star hotels, suggesting potential for future margin improvement [1] - Long-term expectations indicate that international tourism revenue will account for over 15% of total revenue [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morningstar maintains a fair value of HKD 27 for Tongcheng Travel (00780), highlighting strong growth in accommodation bookings as a key driver for a 10% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 [1] Financial Performance - The company's Q3 revenue growth of 10% aligns with expectations, driven by robust accommodation booking growth [1] - Operating profit margin exceeded expectations by 100 basis points, with core revenue increasing by 15% [1] Growth Catalysts - International business and margin expansion are seen as long-term growth catalysts for the company [1] - The number of hotel room nights for Tongcheng is expected to increase by 23%, indicating strong demand [1] Future Projections - The group anticipates a 15-20% growth in core business revenue for Q4, including additional revenue from the recent acquisition of Wanda [1] - Excluding the acquisition, projected revenue growth is still expected to be in double digits [1] Market Insights - The monetization rate for international tourism is approximately 10-15%, higher than the 5-6% for domestic low-star hotels, suggesting potential for future margin improvement [1] - Long-term expectations indicate that international tourism revenue will account for over 15% of total revenue [1]

2025 年 11 月 27 日 公司研究 25Q3 盈利能力持续增长，国际业务与酒管业务表现亮眼 ——同程旅行（0780.HK）2025 年三季度业绩点评 要点 事件：公司发布 25Q3 业绩公告，25Q3 实现营收 55.09 亿元，同比+10.4%；实 现经调整净利润 10.60 亿元，同比+16.5%；经调整净利润率 19.2%，同比 +1.0pcts。 点评： 25Q3 核心 OTA 业务稳健增长，国际业务与酒店管理业务表现亮眼：25Q3 公司 核心 OTA 业务营收达到 46.09 亿元，同比+14.9%。分业务板块：1）25Q3 住宿 预订营收达到 15.79 亿元，同比+14.7%，主要系暑期旺季需求稳健，日均间夜 量创历史新高，同时公司重点满足用户对高品质酒店的需求，推动了平台上高品 质酒店预订量同比提升，ADR 亦持续改善。2）25Q3 交通票务营收达到 22.09 亿元，同比+9.0%。主要系公司持续丰富增值产品与服务，且国际机票业务保持 快速增长（25Q3 国际机票业务营收占交通票务总收入比例达 6%，同比提升 2.0pcts）。3）25Q3 其他业务营收达到 8.21 亿元，同比+3 ...

招银国际发布研报称，略上调同程旅行(00780)目标价5.8%，从24港元升至25.4港元，维持"买入"评级。 鉴于2025年10月起同程旅行开始合并万达酒店管理业务并由此获得新增收入，该行将2025-2027年收入 预测值上调1-3%；预计同程旅行2026年收入与经调整净利润将有14%与12%的同比增长。 招银国际表示，同程旅行2025年第三季业绩表明，总收入达55亿元人民币(下同)，同比增10.4%，较招 银国际预期及市场一致预期均高出1%；经调整净利润为10.6亿元，同比增16.5%，分别较招银国际预期/ 机构一致预期高4%/2%，得益于核心OTA业务的营运杠杆表现超预期。第三季核心OTA业务的营业利益 率升至31.2%(24Q3：31.1%)，较该行的预测值高出0.1个百分点。 ...

总收入55亿元，同比增10%，符合该行及机构一致预期。经调整净利润同比增17%至10.6亿元，略超该 行/市场预期4%/2%，经调整利润率19.2%，同比/环比提升1个/3个百分点，受益于经营费用效率优化。 分业务看，核心OTA经营利润同比增15%至14亿元，经营利润率31.2%，同比稳定，环比提升4个百分 点。 Q3为核心OTA业务旺季 3季度核心OTA收入同比增15%，其中：1)住宿预订收入同比增15%，受益于日均间夜量(创新高)稳健增 长及ADR小幅提升(好于行业)。高质量酒店间夜量同比增20%，快于平台整体间夜量增速，占比持续提 升。2)交通票务预订收入同比增9%，变现率稳定，国际机票业务贡献交通票务收入的6%，同比提升2个 百分点。 智通财经APP获悉，国投证券发布研报称，上调同程旅行(00780)目标价至27.2港元(前值：24.9港元)， 维持买入评级，公司营收与经调整净利润实现高速增长，核心广告平台Mintegral增势强劲，其AI智能出 价产品已广泛采用并成为主要收入来源，公司正通过深化AI技术在素材制作与广告投放环节的应用， 持续提升服务竞争力。 用户ARPPU值提升趋势不变 国投证券主要 ...

国投证券发布研报称，上调同程旅行(00780)目标价至27.2港元(前值：24.9港元)，维持买入评级，公司 营收与经调整净利润实现高速增长，核心广告平台Mintegral增势强劲，其AI智能出价产品已广泛采用并 成为主要收入来源，公司正通过深化AI技术在素材制作与广告投放环节的应用，持续提升服务竞争 力。 3季度MPU为4,770万，同比增3%，APU同比增9%至2.53亿人。ARPPU值角度，若以最近12个月总收入/ 核心OTA收入除APU，计算单个用户对年度总收入/年度核心OTA收入贡献为74元/63元，同比增 6%/7%，该行认为平台的用户规模优势将逐步释放。 财务预测 该行预计4季度核心OTA收入同比增17%，其中住宿预订/交通票务同比增15%/9%，预计国内酒店预订 收入仍主要由间夜量增长驱动。看中长期业务潜力，对于国内业务，该行认为住宿预订是主要增长动 力，高星酒店占比提升将带动ADR增长、新住宿场景开发带来间夜量新增长动力;对于国际业务，公司 指引未来2-3年对总收入的占比有望提升至10-15%，当前的业务重心为提升国际机票用户粘性及单量、 国际酒店供给能力建设，后续建议关注国内高星酒店间夜量 ...

招商证券发布研报称，维持同程旅行(00780)"强烈推荐"评级，暑期旺季以来休闲旅游需求持续释放， 得益于公司补贴策略&三星以上酒店占比提升驱动，酒店业务呈现量价齐升趋势，国际业务延续高增长 趋势&Q3已初步实现盈利，叠加公司持续推进降本增效&精细化补贴，看好未来业绩延续高增长。 招商证券主要观点如下： 产品服务丰富，用户增长稳中向好 25Q3公司平均月付费用户为4770万人/+2.8%，公司年付费用户为2.5亿人/+8.8%，创历史新高。过去12 个月累计服务的旅客人次为20.2亿人次/+7.3%，付费用户延续稳增长趋势。 投资建议 风险提示：全球疫情反复;经济消费下滑风险;出行政策变化风险。 收入持续增长，业绩符合预期 报告期内公司实现营收55.1亿元/+10.4%;实现经调整EBITDA 15.1亿元/+14.5%，实现经调整利润10.6亿 元/+16.5%，收入&业绩表现均符合预期。分业务来看，25Q3公司住宿预订/交通票务/度假业务/其他业 务分别实现收入15.8/22.1/9.0/8.2亿元，其他业务表现出色，主要受酒店管理业务的优异表现推动，轻资 产酒店管理业务维持强劲的增长势头。截至2025年 ...