"地利"方面，政策端与产业端协同发力，正推动半导体国产替代加速。9月13日，商务部发布公告，决 定对原产于美国的进口相关模拟芯片发起反倾销立案调查，有望为国内厂商份额扩张创造有利条件。长 期看，国产替代空间亟待释放。国泰海通证券指出，上一轮缺芯潮中，模拟芯片在消费电子等中低端市 场实现初步渗透，推动国产替代率从2019年的个位数提升至2024年的16%，但仍处于相对低位。（资料 来源：国泰海通《电子：商务部发起模拟IC反倾销调查，国产替代加速》2025年9月15日） 近一年多以来，科技板块强势领跑，半导体作为硬科技的代表被整体推高，Wind数据显示，截至9月30 日，万得半导体设备概念指数（8841321.WI）近一年涨幅超112%。（指数过往表现不预示其未来表 现，市场有风险，投资需谨慎） 板块强势背后，离不开基本面支持。近期，部分半导体企业披露2025年前三季度业绩预告，营业收入等 核心指标表现亮眼，进一步印证板块潜力。值得一提的是，这一年在行情与业绩共振下，半导体主题基 金业绩表现同样突出。 半导体板块的强势表现并非偶然，而是"天时、地利、人和"多重因素共振的结果。 "天时"方面，全球流动性正在持续改善 ...

| 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 推荐次数 | 申万行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 002415. SZ | 海康威视 | 2 | 计算机 | | 2 | 688169. SH | 石头科技 | 2 | 家用电器 | | 3 | 603799. SH | 华友钻业 | 2 | 华友钻业 | | র্ব | 603486. SH | 科沃斯 | 2 | 家用电器 | | 5 | 603993. SH | 洛阳钼业 | 2 | 有色金属 | | 6 | 688208. SH | 道通科技 | 2 | 计算机 | | 7 | 002648. SZ | 卫星化学 | 2 | 基础化工 | | 8 | 603986. SH | 兆易创新 | 2 | 电子 | | 0 | 000063. SZ | 中兴通讯 | 2 | 通信 | | 10 | 601100. SH | 恒立液压 | 2 | 机械设备 | | 11 | 688981. SH | 中芯国际 | 2 | 电子 | | 12 | 600690. SH | 海尔智家 | 2 | 家用电器 | | 13 ...

Group 1 - The monthly "golden stocks" list reflects the comprehensive research strength and stock selection ability of various brokerages, with 111 stocks included as of October 1, 2023 [1] - Notable stocks attracting institutional attention this month include Hikvision, Stone Technology, Huayou Cobalt, Ecovacs, and Luoyang Molybdenum, with sectors like electronics, automotive, and pharmaceuticals receiving broker recognition [1][2] - Institutions believe that favorable factors for A-share performance are still in play, with expectations for the market center to rise in October due to technological industry catalysts and long-term policy layout windows [1][6] Group 2 - Hikvision, Stone Technology, Huayou Cobalt, Ecovacs, and Luoyang Molybdenum received recommendations from two brokerages each, including Everbright Securities and Guojin Securities [2][3] - The electronic sector, including stocks like Zhaoyi Innovation and SMIC, is favored by brokerages, with expectations for a strong performance in the fourth quarter due to traditional seasonal demand [4] - All 11 brokerage "golden stock" combinations have recorded positive returns year-to-date, with the top five being KSY Securities, Huaan Securities, Dongxing Securities, Everbright Securities, and China Galaxy [5] Group 3 - Institutions are optimistic about the "Red October" market, with catalysts for A-share performance continuing, and a potential upward shift in market structure expected [6] - Factors such as the calendar effect of the National Day holiday and the initiation of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle are seen as supportive for market sentiment [6] - The liquidity outlook remains positive, with expectations for continued inflows into the market, and a structural rally may re-emerge after addressing short-term valuation issues [6]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 周二A股市场出现了震荡中有所分化的态势。资源股、军工股、存储股、CXO主线等品种反复震荡走高，牵引着科创50指数、上证综指再度回升。 但小市值品种以及前期强势的CPO为代表的AI硬件主线有所休整，创业板指也随之乏力。看来，在即将进入三季度业绩披露窗口期的背景下，短线 A股市场的资金偏好可能会有所转变，更偏好于那些业绩兑现能力较强的方向。 新产业催化剂层出不穷 从盘面来看，新产业催化剂仍然是动量资金关注的重要方向。因此，新的产业催化剂频频涌现的品种往往成为短线涨升先锋。比如说在周二，关于 存储芯片价格持续扬升的信息使得动量资金再度聚焦到芯片板块，从而推动着科创50指数在周二再度创出阶段性新高，主升浪的趋势依然较为清 晰。 与此同时，近期一直滞涨的军工板块也迎来新的产业催化剂，不仅整个军工板块出现了强劲走势，部分龙头品种更是创出了历史新高（含复权）， 比如说中航沈飞（600760）。由于当前全球格局的微妙变化，越来越多的动量资金开始认同A股军工板块的业绩驱动力将由内需走向外需，从而拥 有了新的业绩驱动力，也拥有了估值提振的驱动力。或者说，随 ...

Group 1 - The core market sentiment reflects a significant decline in the ChiNext index, dropping by 2.6%, with over 3,400 stocks falling, particularly in the technology sector such as gaming and computing hardware [1][3] - The technology sector is experiencing a collective pullback, attributed to high valuations not matching earnings growth, despite some stocks having over 100% gains this year [3][4] - The wind power and chemical fiber sectors are showing resilience, with companies like Weili Transmission and Shunfeng Mingyang seeing substantial gains, indicating strong performance amid broader market declines [1][4] Group 2 - The wind power sector benefits from global energy transition trends, with domestic profitability turning a corner and new business opportunities in hydrogen and ammonia [4][5] - The chemical fiber industry is undergoing supply-side reforms, with companies like Shunfeng Mingyang expanding into high-value products, contributing to their stock performance [4][5] - The trading volume decreased to 2.17 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious sentiment among large investors, with a shift from high-valuation tech stocks to undervalued sectors [5][6] Group 3 - The strategy suggests avoiding high-valuation sectors like gaming and computing hardware while focusing on performance-driven sectors like wind power and chemical fiber [6][7] - Maintaining a cash reserve and controlling positions below 60% is recommended to prepare for clearer market directions post-holiday [7][8] - The current market adjustment is viewed as a strategic shift from speculative bubbles to value investments, emphasizing the importance of policy support and earnings certainty [8]

Group 1 - Nanjing University of the Arts and Insta360 signed a strategic cooperation agreement to establish the "Insta360-Nanjing University of the Arts Panoramic Imaging Joint Innovation Laboratory" [1] - Insta360 will launch the "Image Creator Program" at Nanjing University of the Arts, aiming to foster creativity and provide a platform for students to showcase their talents [1] - The collaboration will involve joint research projects, curriculum integration, project incubation, and practical internships, enhancing the learning and development opportunities for students [1] Group 2 - Insta360, founded in 2015, is a leading imaging brand and smart hardware unicorn, recognized in the 2025 MIT Technology Review's "50 Smartest Companies" list and awarded the 2025 Engineering, Science, and Technology Emmy Award [2] - The company has received multiple international awards, including CES Innovation Awards, Red Dot Design Awards, and iF Design Awards, highlighting its strong position in the industry [2] - The event included a salon session where Insta360's market manager and department directors discussed industry trends and talent needs, engaging with students in an interactive format [2]

Group 1 - The Shanghai government has officially released measures to promote high-quality development in the cosmetics industry, emphasizing technological innovation, digital intelligence, and regulatory efficiency, making it the most supportive initiative in the country [1] - The measures include financial support for the registration and filing of new cosmetic raw materials, with a maximum of 2 million yuan for registered materials and 500,000 yuan for filed materials, aimed at reducing reliance on imported core ingredients [1] - The initiative encourages local companies to innovate and develop new raw materials, with the goal of enhancing the competitiveness of Shanghai's cosmetics brands [1] Group 2 - Shanghai's AI innovation is boosting the local beauty industry, with companies like Rongxiusheng leveraging AI solutions for natural essential oil extraction, which helps in achieving cost advantages and product uniformity [2] - The measures promote the integration of AI and multi-omics to drive innovations in cosmetic manufacturing processes, including the development of organoids and 3D skin models [2] - The initiative also includes support for AI resources such as computing power vouchers, which are unique advantages for companies in Shanghai [2] Group 3 - The measures aim to accelerate innovation through regulatory support, with the government providing guidance to cosmetic companies developing medical devices, thus reducing the likelihood of application rejections [3] - The initiative emphasizes the construction of industrial spaces, with plans to add 30 million square meters of "smart manufacturing space" from 2023 to 2025, facilitating vertical factories for cosmetics companies [3] - E-commerce platforms are encouraged to promote Shanghai beauty brands, with project support amounts reaching up to 30 million yuan [3] Group 4 - Shanghai holds a leading position in the high-end cosmetics industry in China, with 17 brands listed in the top 50 Chinese color cosmetics brands according to Hurun Research Institute [4] - The city is home to listed companies such as Shiseido and Shanghai Jahwa, with others like Lin Qingxuan planning to go public in Hong Kong [4]

Macro Overview - Overall consumption is improving, with notable increases in automobile retail and high-end liquor prices due to seasonal demand and base effects [4] - Service consumption indicators such as urban population flow and movie box office revenues are also showing improvement, although inter-city migration indices have turned negative year-on-year [4] - Investment in infrastructure is accelerating with special bond issuance, while real estate sales are recovering during the peak season, despite a cooling land market and low construction start data [4] - Production across most industries is declining, with sectors like power generation and steel adjusting due to demand or profit impacts [4] - Inventory levels are primarily focused on replenishment, with industrial prices rising and CPI showing divergence [4] - The dollar index has slightly increased, while the RMB has appreciated moderately [4] Strategy Insights - Market adjustments present opportunities, and the Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trajectory [7] - The "transformation bull market" is driven by the demand for assets and capital market reforms aimed at improving investor returns [7] - Recent communication between Chinese and U.S. leaders indicates a stabilization of short-term risks, while a weak dollar and overseas interest rate cuts favor Chinese monetary easing [7] - The consensus on economic expectations is overly cautious, but there are signs of stabilization in revenue and inventory growth for Chinese listed companies [8] - Emerging industries are entering a new capital expenditure expansion cycle, indicating increased certainty in economic development [9] Industry Comparisons - The technology sector remains a key focus, with recommendations for investments in internet, semiconductor, innovative pharmaceuticals, and robotics [9] - Financial stocks are suggested for gradual allocation due to potential increases in dividend returns after recent adjustments [9] - The shift in economic governance is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics for cyclical goods such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, real estate, and new energy [9] - Recommendations for consumer sectors include national brands in retail and cosmetics, as well as traditional categories like agriculture and food and beverage [9] Thematic Recommendations - Positive outlook on domestic computing power infrastructure and increased penetration of domestic supply chains [10] - Favorable conditions for commercial aerospace investments due to satellite communication license issuance [10] - Anticipation of improved pricing expectations in sectors benefiting from economic governance changes, such as lithium batteries and energy storage [10] - Growth in embodied intelligence with accelerated equity financing in robotics and logistics [10] Hong Kong Dividend Assets - Hong Kong dividend assets are characterized by stable performance and sustainable cash flows, offering higher dividend yields compared to A-shares [15] - The average cash dividend payout ratio for Hong Kong stocks from 2017 to 2024 is 44%, significantly higher than A-shares at 36% [15] - The dividend yield for the Hang Seng Index is 2.9%, compared to 1.9% for the Wind All A Index, indicating a clear advantage for Hong Kong stocks [15] - Hong Kong dividend assets have a lower valuation level, with PE and PB ratios of 7.2x and 0.6x, respectively, compared to 7.9x and 0.8x for the CSI Dividend All Return Index [15] Market Dynamics - Both Hong Kong and A-share dividend assets exhibit defensive characteristics in weak markets, but absolute returns are positively correlated with market performance [16] - Hong Kong dividend assets face higher taxation and are more sensitive to U.S. Treasury yields compared to A-shares [16] - Current market conditions suggest that Hong Kong dividend assets may offer better value for allocation, especially as institutional demand for dividend stocks increases [17] - Long-term trends indicate a strengthening of dividend policies and a low-interest environment, enhancing the appeal of Hong Kong dividend assets for sustained investment [17]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the overall performance of the electronics industry is expected to continue its growth trend under normal demand conditions in Q3 2025, with several sub-sectors showing promising results [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Performance Expectations - The electronics sector is anticipated to enter a peak stocking season in September and October, which will drive up utilization rates [1] - Key sub-sectors expected to perform well include leading companies in computing-related PCBs, storage, analog devices, equipment, optics, CIS, and certain power companies [1] Investment Opportunities - For Q4 2025, the report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in four areas: computing, storage, semiconductor equipment, and consumer electronics [1] Market Drivers - Three main factors are expected to sustain the industry's prosperity: 1. Self-sufficiency in domestic computing breakthroughs, expansion orders from storage manufacturers, and confirmed orders from logic manufacturers [1] 2. AI innovation, including increased overseas computing orders and continuous iteration of new products on the edge [1] 3. Cycle prosperity, particularly with rising storage prices [1] - Capital market catalysts, such as IPO financing events, are expected to accelerate the positive outlook for the sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Modern Shanghai Design Week and Modern Shanghai Home Furnishing Exhibition have commenced at the Expo Center, showcasing advancements in various fields such as original design, lifestyle, high-end manufacturing, green technology, sustainability, cross-border trade, AI innovation, and new consumption trends, attracting 200,000 professional visitors from 160 countries and regions [1] Group 1 - The event features upgraded exhibition areas including the Design High Ground Pavilion, Commercial High-end Integrated Decoration Pavilion, and a new online-offline integrated factory direct sales model [1] - The exhibition includes 18+ trendy special events, three authoritative awards, and over 100 cutting-edge forums, emphasizing the theme "Crossing into a New Era" [1] - The dual exhibitions aim to guide global traffic and provide a comprehensive industry feast for the global home furnishing community [1]