Group 1 - Ctrip reported a revenue growth of 16% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 194.01% in Q3 2025, achieving a net profit of 199 billion yuan, surpassing Kweichow Moutai's net profit of 192.2 billion yuan [3][4] - The significant profit increase was partly due to the disposal of certain assets, including a portion of its stake in MakeMyTrip, which contributed 170.32 billion yuan in "other income" [3][4] - Ctrip's gross margin reached 81.55%, significantly higher than other major internet companies like Tencent and NetEase, which reported gross margins of 56.41% and 64.10% respectively [5][7] Group 2 - The hotel booking segment contributed 80 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 43.72% of total revenue, marking the highest proportion in three years [9] - Ctrip's commission rates for hotels are notably high, with some hotels paying up to 20% in commissions, reflecting the industry's heavy reliance on Ctrip for customer acquisition [10][12] - Ctrip's market share in the domestic OTA market is projected to be 56% in 2024, significantly ahead of competitors like Tongcheng, Meituan, and Fliggy [12] Group 3 - Ctrip enjoys a strong competitive advantage with no significant direct competitors in the domestic OTA market, allowing it to capitalize on its market leader status [16][17] - The company has strategically invested in and partnered with potential competitors in the past, effectively consolidating the market and reducing price competition [13][14] - Ctrip's focus on service quality has fostered customer loyalty, making it difficult for competitors to gain market share despite potential price incentives [16][17]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 携程集团-S（09961.HK） 优于大市 Q3 延续绩优表现，海外份额扩张蓄力中线空间 Q3 旺季收入增速环比平稳，主业利润增速环比改善。2025Q3 公司收入 183.4 亿元/+15.5%，好于彭博预期的 14.6%，环比上半年的 16%增速维持基本稳定； Non-GAAP 归母净利润 191.56 亿元/+221.2%，主要系出售 Makemytrip 带来其 他收益贡献；其中主业相关的经调整 EBITDA 为 63.5 亿元/+11.7%，环比提 速，好于彭博预期的+4.8%，对应利润率为 34.6%/-1.2pct。今年以来海外投 入及占比提升致利润率同比回落，但公司凭借优异执行力带来良好表现。 收入拆分：国内与出境自由行份额继续提升，海外 Trip.com 增势不减。 2025Q3 公司住宿预订收入 80.5 亿元/+18.3%，交通票务收入 63.1 亿元 /+11.6%，旅游度假收入 16.1 亿元/+3.1%，商旅管理收入 7.6 亿元/+15.2%， 其他收入 16.5 亿元/+33.9%。分区域看：1）估算 Q3 国内收入同比增长约 10%， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong growth in Q3 2025, with net operating income reaching 18.3 billion yuan (YoY +16%) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 19.9 billion yuan (YoY +194%) [1] Group 1: Overall Performance - The company's Q3 2025 net operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders showed robust year-on-year growth, driven by resilient domestic tourism demand, high growth in cross-border/international business, and a one-time gain from the sale of MMYT.O [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of outbound tourism and the development of inbound tourism, alongside continuous improvements in its global OTA platform and the application of AIGC in the cultural tourism sector [1] Group 2: Domestic Business - Diverse travel demands are driving steady growth in the domestic market, with significant increases in bookings from remote areas like Urumqi, Hohhot, and Lhasa, which saw nearly 30% year-on-year growth [2] - The company is targeting the silver-haired market, with user numbers and total transaction volume for its "Old Friends Club" growing over 70% year-on-year [2] - Collaborations with several entertainment companies have been established to further drive revenue growth in the youth travel segment [2] Group 3: Outbound Business - The outbound business continues to grow steadily, with cross-border flight capacity recovering to 88% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019, and hotel and flight bookings for outbound travel increasing nearly 20% year-on-year, reaching 140% of 2019 levels [2] Group 4: Global OTA Business - The international OTA platform saw total bookings increase by approximately 60% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the Asia-Pacific region, and mobile platforms accounting for over 70% of total bookings [3] - Inbound tourism bookings surged over 100% year-on-year, with the Asia-Pacific region remaining the primary source of inbound tourists, while Europe and the US markets also showed strong growth [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - As a leading player in the OTA industry, the company is expected to benefit from the release of domestic tourism demand, the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism, and the deepening of its global OTA business [3] - The company forecasts net operating income of 61.9 billion, 70.1 billion, and 79.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 31.8 billion, 20.4 billion, and 22.9 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to diluted EPS of 48.6, 31.3, and 34.8 yuan [3] - The target market value for the company in 2026 is set at 440.5 billion yuan, with a target price of 678 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

2025 年 11 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 相关报告 《携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q2 财报点评：利 润强劲增长，关注国际业务长期增量（买入）*旅 游及景区*陈梦竹，张娟娟》——2025-08-31 《携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q1 财报点评：旅 游需求持续强劲，关注国际业务长期增量（买入） *旅游及景区*陈梦竹，张娟娟，罗婉琦》—— 2025-05-24 《携程集团-S（9961.HK）2024Q4 财报点评：延 续高质量增长，看好国际业务长期增量空间（买入） *旅游及景区*陈梦竹，张娟娟，罗婉琦》—— 事件: 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 张娟娟 S0350523110004 zhangjj02@ghzq.com.cn ——携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q3 财报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2025/11/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 携程集团-S | 8.0% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) with a target price of 635 HKD, reflecting an expected upside of 12.3% from the current price of 564.50 HKD [2][4]. Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported a revenue of 18.37 billion HKD in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.5%. The gross margin was 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points year-over-year. Operating profit reached 5.57 billion HKD, up 11.3% year-over-year, while net profit surged to 19.89 billion HKD, a remarkable increase of 194.0% due to gains from the disposal of certain investments [2][4]. - The accommodation booking revenue exceeded expectations, amounting to 8.05 billion HKD, with a year-over-year growth of 18.3%. Transportation ticketing revenue was 6.31 billion HKD, up 11.6% year-over-year. The international business continued to grow significantly, with total bookings on the international OTA platform increasing by approximately 60% year-over-year [8][2]. - The company has increased its marketing expenses to support overseas business expansion, leading to a sales expense ratio of 22.8%, which is an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-over-year [8][2]. - The sale of MakeMyTrip shares resulted in a substantial non-recurring gain, with other income for Q3 2025 reaching 17.03 billion HKD, a significant rise from 1.78 billion HKD in the same period last year [8][2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Ctrip Group are estimated at 61.68 billion HKD for 2025, 70.16 billion HKD for 2026, and 79.54 billion HKD for 2027, with year-over-year growth rates of 15.7%, 13.8%, and 13.4% respectively [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 31.65 billion HKD in 2025, 20.62 billion HKD in 2026, and 23.59 billion HKD in 2027, with growth rates of 85.4%, -34.9%, and 14.4% respectively [4][9]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings ratio of 20x for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of 452.4 billion HKD [8][4].

Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported significant growth in revenue and profit for Q3 2025, driven by strong global travel demand and robust international business performance [1] - The company's net operating revenue reached 18.3 billion RMB, a 16% increase year-over-year and a 24% increase quarter-over-quarter [1] - Net profit soared to 19.9 billion RMB, up approximately 193% compared to the same period in 2024, and a substantial increase from 4.9 billion RMB in the previous quarter [1] Revenue Breakdown - International OTA platform bookings increased by about 60% year-over-year, with inbound travel bookings more than doubling [1] - Outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [1] - Accommodation bookings, the main revenue driver, generated 8 billion RMB, reflecting an 18% year-over-year growth [1] - Transportation ticketing revenue was 6.3 billion RMB, a 12% increase year-over-year [1] - Travel vacation business revenue was 1.6 billion RMB, showing a slight 3% year-over-year increase but a significant 49% increase quarter-over-quarter [1] - Business travel management revenue reached 756 million RMB, up 15% year-over-year [1] Strategic Focus - Ctrip's leadership emphasized the importance of leveraging artificial intelligence to optimize travel experiences and enhance service capabilities [2] - The company aims to build a vibrant and interconnected international tourism ecosystem through collaboration with partners [2]

Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported a net revenue of 18.338 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.53% driven by strong travel demand [1] - The company experienced growth across all major business segments, with accommodation booking revenue increasing by 18.3%, transportation ticketing revenue by 11.61%, vacation revenue by 3.08%, and business travel management revenue by 15.24% [1] - Ctrip's international OTA platform bookings grew approximately 60% year-on-year, with inbound tourism bookings more than doubling [1] Financial Performance - Ctrip achieved a net profit of 19.919 billion yuan in Q3, significantly up from 6.823 billion yuan in the same quarter of 2024 and 4.88 billion yuan in the previous quarter [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was 6.346 billion yuan, an increase from 5.68 billion yuan year-on-year and 4.88 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [1] - The substantial increase in net profit was primarily due to the disposal of certain investments, with "other income" reported at 17.032 billion yuan compared to 1.781 billion yuan in the previous year [2] Cost and Investment - Operating costs for Q3 were 3.359 billion yuan, up 19.96% year-on-year, aligning with the revenue growth trend [2] - Research and development expenses rose by 12.17% to 4.083 billion yuan, while sales and marketing expenses increased by 23.63% to 4.181 billion yuan [2] - As of September 30, 2025, Ctrip held cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and term deposits totaling 107.7 billion yuan [2]

公司首席执行官孙洁也对第三季度的强劲表现，特别是跨境旅游的增长感到欣喜。她表示："我们致力 于赋能合作伙伴全面提升服务能力并精准把握增长机遇，携手共建一个服务卓越、体验难忘、活力充沛 且连接紧密的国际旅游生态。" （文章来源：证券时报网） 值得注意的是，携程的国际业务在本季度表现尤为突出。国际OTA平台的总预订量同比增长约60%，入 境旅游预订量同比增长超过100%。 同时，出境酒店和机票的预订量已攀升至2019年同期水平的140%。 携程董事会执行主席梁建章表示："今年夏季的旅游需求保持强劲态势，这源于旅行者对探索世界的恒 久热情。正运用人工智能优化旅行的各环节，并将持续拓展技术与服务的边界，致力于塑造一个更智 慧、更可持续的旅游业未来。" 携程集团发布2025年第三季度业绩，第三季度的净营业收入达到183亿元人民币（约合26亿美元），与 去年同期相比增长了16%。这一增长主要得益于全球旅游需求的持续增强。季度净利润更是达到了199 亿元人民币（约合28亿美元），相较于2024年同期的68亿元人民币，同比大幅增长。 从具体业务板块来看，携程的各项业务均实现了同比增长：住宿预订业务收入为80亿元人民币，同比增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong investment rating for the social services industry, particularly focusing on the OTA sector [1]. Core Insights - The overall trend in tourism is upward, with domestic travel showing significant growth. In the first half of 2025, domestic residents made 3.285 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and spent 3.15 trillion yuan, up 15.2% [5][10]. - Major OTA platforms like Trip.com and Tongcheng Travel have reported strong performance, with robust growth in core services such as accommodation and transportation bookings [10][13]. - The competitive landscape in the OTA market is characterized by a few dominant players, with Trip.com leading and several strong competitors like Tongcheng and Feizhu [16][41]. - The OTA industry has established significant barriers to entry through strong supply chain relationships and consumer loyalty, particularly for leading companies like Trip.com [20][70]. - New consumer demands are being met by OTAs through AI tools and innovative product offerings, catering to both younger travelers and the elderly demographic [87][80]. Summary by Sections 2025H1 Tourism Market Recovery - The tourism market is recovering, with OTAs outperforming expectations. Domestic travel is on the rise, with significant increases in both the number of trips and spending [5][10]. OTA's Role in Connecting Supply and Demand - OTAs effectively link fragmented upstream suppliers (hotels, airlines) with diverse consumer demands, creating a strong two-sided scale effect [20][28]. Competitive Landscape and Barriers - The OTA market has evolved into a "one strong, many strong" competitive structure, with Trip.com as the leader and others like Tongcheng and Meituan following closely [41][46]. Adapting to New Consumer Needs - OTAs are adapting to new consumer preferences by offering experience-based travel products and leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency [80][87]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading OTA companies like Trip.com and Tongcheng Travel, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing recovery in tourism and changing consumer preferences [10][86].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable revenue growth and improved profit margins in Q2 2025, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations, driven by strong execution and increased overseas investments [1][4]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic hotel and outbound travel businesses continue to gain market share, with Q2 accommodation booking revenue at 62.3 billion yuan, up 21.2%, and transportation ticketing revenue at 54.0 billion yuan, up 10.8% [2]. - Estimated Q2 domestic revenue growth exceeded 10%, with hotel night growth maintaining over 15%, while outbound revenue also grew over 10%, with hotel and flight bookings recovering significantly [2]. - International platform revenue is expected to grow over 30%, with Trip.com seeing over 60% growth in hotel and flight bookings [2]. Profitability Breakdown - The international platform is still in an investment phase, impacting profit margins, while domestic operations are optimizing profitability [3]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with R&D and management expenses rising by 18.3% [3]. - The company has repurchased 4 billion USD worth of shares and announced a new 50 billion USD buyback plan, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [3].