Group 1 - The core logic of the "anti-involution" policy is to shift from short-term stimulus to long-term sustainable growth, focusing on reducing excessive competition and restoring industry pricing power [3][33] - The current economic environment is more complex, facing local debt issues, demographic changes, and fragmented export markets, which necessitates a more market-oriented and gradual approach to reforms [6][33] - The "anti-involution" initiative aims to address systemic issues such as local government financing platforms and overcapacity in emerging sectors like solar energy and batteries, where private enterprises dominate [4][6] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has developed three scenarios for the MSCI China index's return on equity (ROE) based on the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy and demand stimulation [7][9] - In the base case scenario, the MSCI China ROE is projected to recover from 11.1% in 2025 to 13.3% by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% from 2025 to 2030 [9][10] - The optimistic scenario anticipates a faster recovery, with the MSCI China ROE reaching 16.3% by 2030, driven by improved pricing power and capacity integration [12][14] Group 3 - High-potential industries identified include electric vehicle (EV) batteries, steel, and cement, which are expected to benefit from clear policy support and effective capacity control [20][22][33] - The aviation industry is also highlighted as having potential for profitability recovery through pricing improvements and capacity optimization, although policy progress is currently slow [23][33] - Medium-potential industries such as coal and float glass are characterized by lower reform urgency but have state-owned enterprises leading the market, making integration easier [24][25] Group 4 - The report identifies 22 key stocks across various sectors, including automobiles, consumer services, energy, and materials, that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" theme [29][31] - Representative stocks include Geely Automobile, Li Auto, and Contemporary Amperex Technology, which are positioned to gain from battery integration and improved pricing discipline [31][33] - The energy sector is represented by companies like PetroChina and China Shenhua Energy, which are expected to benefit from the elimination of outdated refining capacity [31][33] Group 5 - The "anti-involution" policy has already initiated several measures, with short-term actions focusing on upstream industries like coal, steel, and cement to implement moderate production cuts [32][33] - Medium-term reforms will target structural changes outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan, including shifts in fiscal policy and social welfare enhancements [32][33] - Long-term strategies will involve market-oriented mergers and efficiency upgrades to optimize the landscape of overcapacity industries [32][33]

| | | | 9月2日券商给予买入评级个股一览 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票 | 机构 | 最新 | 最高目标价 | 收盘价 | 目标涨 板 | | | 简称 | | 评级 | 〔元) | (元) | 喝 块 | | 002594.SZ | 比亚 | 东吴证券 | 买入 | 161 | 110.02 | 46.34% 汽车 | | | | | | | | | | 000528.SZ | | 柳工 太平洋 | ポゾ | 15.82 | 10.91 | 机械 45% | | | | | | | | 设备 | | 600585.SH | 海螺 | 天风证券 | 买入 | 32.77 | 24.16 | 建筑 35.64% | | | 水泥 | | | | | 材料 | | 603876.SH | 鼎胜 | 东吴证券 | 买人 | 14 | 10.5 | 20 000 0 0 0 | | | 新材 | | | | | 金属 | | 002916.SZ | 深南 | 招银国际 | ポイ | 235 | 179.89 | ...

福建水泥股份有限公司 会议时间：2025 年 9 月 15 日 目 录 议案 3 关于与集团财务公司重新签订金融服务协议(关联交易)的议案 .. 7 福建水泥股份有限公司 会 议 召 集 人 ：公司董事会 会 议 主 持 人 ：王振兴董事长 会 议 召 开 方 式 ：现场投票与网络投票相结合的方式 现 场 会 议 时 间 ：2025年9月15日 14点30分 现 场 会 议 地 点 ：福建省福州市晋安区塔头路396号福建能源石化大厦 平台的投票时间为股东会召开当日的9:15-15:00 现场会议主要议程： 序号 议 案 名 称 网络投票起止时间：自2025年9月15日至2025年9月15日 网 络 投 票 时 间 ：采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统，通过交易系统投票平 台的投票时间为股东会召开当日的交易时间段，即 关于与集团财务公司重新签订金融服务协议(关联交易)的 议案 总数；宣布第 3、4 项议案关联股东名单及非关联股东和股东代理人人数及 所持表决权股份总数。 议案 1 福建水泥股份有限公司 关于独立董事报酬的议案 各位股东： 根据公司情况，并参考同行业上市公司及省内国有控股上市公司独立董 事报酬标准的基础 ...

格隆汇9月3日丨冀东水泥(000401.SZ)公布，公司变更公司名称、证券简称的申请已经深圳证券交易所 审核无异议。自2025年9月4日起，公司中文证券简称由"冀东水泥"变更为"金隅冀东"，公司证券代 码"000401"保持不变。 ...

冀东水泥（000401）(000401.SZ)公告，公司已在唐山市行政审批局完成公司名称变更登记手续和《公 司章程》的备案，并取得换发的《营业执照》。公司中文名称由"唐山冀东水泥股份有限公司"变更 为"金隅冀东水泥集团股份有限公司"，英文名称由"TANGSHAN JIDONG CEMENT CO.,LTD"变更 为"BBMG JIDONG CEMENT GROUP CO.,LTD"。公司中文证券简称由"冀东水泥"变更为"金隅冀东"， 英文证券简称由"JIDONG CEMENT"变更为"BBMG JIDONG"，启用时间为2025年9月4日。 ...

| 证券代码：000401 证券简称：冀东水泥 公告编号：2025-071 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 唐山冀东水泥股份有限公司 | | | | | 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 | | | | | 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 | | | | | 特别提示： | | | | | 东水泥股份有限公司"变更为"金隅冀东水泥集团股份有限公司"，英文 | | | | | 名称由"TANGSHAN JIDONG CEMENT CO.,LTD"变更为"BBMG JIDONG CEMENT | | | | | GROUP CO.,LTD"； | | | | | JIDONG" 简称由"JIDONG CEMENT"变更为"BBMG | | | | | ，启用时间为 2025 | | 年 9 | | | 月 4 | 日； | | | | 变。 | | | | | 一、变更公司名称及证券简称的说明 | | | | | 2025 8 8 8 27 公司分别于 年 月 日、2025 年 月 日召开第十届董事会第 | | | | | 十八次会议、202 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Analysis Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to solve the systematic rotation problem of styles by conducting a bottom-up quantitative market trend analysis. It identifies the dominant asset characteristics that represent the future market's mainstream style through a comprehensive comparison of assets[1][5] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model considers five style stages based on the asset's industry lifecycle: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value[1][5] - The priority for asset comparison is based on the sequence: growth (g) > return on equity (ROE) > dividend (D)[1][5] - The model uses the spread of asset advantage differences to capture the trend changes of top assets, similar to factor timing[20] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has shown good explanatory power for past A-share style rotations, achieving an annualized return of 27.25% since 2009[15] Model Backtesting Results - **Quantitative Market Trend Analysis Framework**: - 2009: Asset Comparison Strategy 133%, Wind All A 82%, Excess Return 51%[18] - 2010: Asset Comparison Strategy 7%, Wind All A -7%, Excess Return 14%[18] - 2011: Asset Comparison Strategy -33%, Wind All A -22%, Excess Return -11%[18] - 2012: Asset Comparison Strategy 5%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 0%[18] - 2013: Asset Comparison Strategy 41%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 36%[18] - 2014: Asset Comparison Strategy 48%, Wind All A 52%, Excess Return -4%[18] - 2015: Asset Comparison Strategy 55%, Wind All A 38%, Excess Return 16%[18] - 2016: Asset Comparison Strategy -14%, Wind All A -13%, Excess Return -1%[18] - 2017: Asset Comparison Strategy 32%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 27%[18] - 2018: Asset Comparison Strategy -21%, Wind All A -28%, Excess Return 7%[18] - 2019: Asset Comparison Strategy 41%, Wind All A 33%, Excess Return 8%[18] - 2020: Asset Comparison Strategy 69%, Wind All A 26%, Excess Return 44%[18] - 2021: Asset Comparison Strategy 47%, Wind All A 9%, Excess Return 38%[18] - 2022: Asset Comparison Strategy 44%, Wind All A -19%, Excess Return 62%[18] - 2023: Asset Comparison Strategy 5%, Wind All A -5%, Excess Return 10%[18] - 2024: Asset Comparison Strategy 62%, Wind All A 10%, Excess Return 52%[18] - 2025 (Aug): Asset Comparison Strategy 27%, Wind All A 23%, Excess Return 4%[18] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on the highest analyst forecasted growth rates, regardless of the cycle stage[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest expected growth rates as forecasted by analysts[6] - The spread of expected growth advantage differences (Δgf) is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns since 2019, with notable performance in 2014-2015[34] Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest actual growth rates, particularly during transition and growth periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest actual growth rates (Δg)[6] - The spread of actual growth advantage differences (Δg) is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in growth-dominant environments[36] Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with high ROE and low valuation under the PB-ROE framework, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with high ROE and low PB-ROE residuals[6] - The spread of ROE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns from 2016 to 2020, with weaker performance since 2021[39] Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest DP+ROE scores, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest DP+ROE scores[6] - The spread of DP+ROE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[42] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[43] Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP+BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest DP+BP scores, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest DP+BP scores[6] - The spread of DP+BP advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[45] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[46] Factor Name: Bankruptcy Value (PB+SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores, concentrated in stagnation and recession periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores[6] - The spread of PB+SIZE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[48] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[49] Factor Backtesting Results - **Expected Growth (gf)**: - Cable: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Zhongtian Technology, average market cap 21.791 billion yuan, 3-month performance 49.62%[34] - Cement: 19 stocks, largest weight stock Conch Cement, average market cap 17.929 billion yuan, 3-month performance 12.71%[34] - Glass Fiber: 6 stocks, largest weight stock China Jushi, average market cap 26.657 billion yuan, 3-month performance 63.67%[34] - Rare Earth and Magnetic Materials: 17 stocks, largest weight stock Northern Rare Earth, average market cap 31.018 billion yuan, 3-month performance 98.77%[34] - White Goods III: 10 stocks, largest weight stock Midea Group, average market cap 113.675 billion yuan, 3-month performance -1.21%[34] - **Actual Growth (g)**: - Integrated Circuits: 104 stocks, largest weight stock Cambricon-U, average market cap 45.058 billion yuan, 3-month performance 42.93%[37] - PCB: 38 stocks, largest weight stock Shenghong Technology, average market cap 27.163 billion yuan, 3-month performance 112.10%[37] - Tungsten: 4 stocks, largest weight stock Xiamen Tungsten, average market cap 30.523 billion yuan, 3-month performance 69.26%[37] - Lithium Battery Equipment: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Lead Intelligent, average market cap 11.731 billion yuan, 3-month performance 60.15%[37] - Weapons and Equipment III: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Great Wall Military Industry, average market cap 21.307 billion yuan, 3-month performance 80.22%[37] - **Profitability (ROE)**: - Beer: 7 stocks, largest weight stock Tsingtao Brewery, average market cap 26.758 billion yuan, 3-month performance -3.94%[39] - Liquor: 20 stocks, largest weight stock Kweichow Moutai, average market cap 162.722 billion yuan, 3-month performance 4.12%[39] - Non-dairy Beverages: 7 stocks, largest weight stock Eastroc Beverage, average market cap 32.754 billion yuan, 3-month performance -4.45%[39] - Network Connection and Tower Setup: 19 stocks, largest weight stock Zhongji Xuchuang, average market cap 64.299 billion yuan, 3-month performance 202.29%[39] - Building Decoration III: 28 stocks, largest weight stock Gold Mantis, average market cap 3.436 billion yuan, 3-month performance 4.42%[39] - **Quality Dividend (DP+ROE)**: - Automotive Motor Control: 15

Core Viewpoint - Ji Dong Cement reported a significant improvement in its financial performance, with a net profit of 7.19 billion yuan in Q2, marking a year-on-year increase of 153.3% and a reduction in net loss for the first half of the year by 80.9% to -1.54 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 7.19 billion yuan in Q2, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 153.3% [1] - For the first half of the year, Ji Dong Cement's net profit was -1.54 billion yuan, which represents an 80.9% reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on stabilizing and improving prices in its core markets, which has led to significant profit recovery in Q2 [1] - Ji Dong Cement is enhancing cost reduction and efficiency internally while promoting industry ecosystem optimization externally [1] - The company is pursuing strategic integration in key markets, increasing mineral reserves, and expanding its "Cement+" industry layout, along with overseas capacity expansion [1] Industry Outlook - The company anticipates continued improvement in its performance due to ongoing industry self-discipline, despite facing pressure on overall industry demand [1] - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 2.7 billion yuan and 5.9 billion yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 3.6 billion yuan and 6.9 billion yuan [1] - A new profit forecast for 2027 has been introduced at 8.8 billion yuan [1] Incentive Mechanism - Ji Dong Cement has implemented a restricted stock incentive plan to strengthen its long-term incentive mechanism [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jidong Cement reported a significant improvement in its financial performance, with a net profit of 7.19 billion yuan in Q2, marking a year-on-year increase of 153.3%, while the overall net profit for the first half was a loss of 1.54 billion yuan, reducing losses by 80.9% [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 7.19 billion yuan in Q2, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 153.3% [1] - For the first half of the year, the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 1.54 billion yuan, which represents an 80.9% reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1] Market Strategy - Jidong Cement is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement internally, while externally promoting industry ecosystem optimization [1] - The company is implementing strategic integration in key markets, increasing mineral reserves, and expanding its "Cement+" industry layout, along with overseas capacity expansion [1] Industry Outlook - The company anticipates continued improvement in performance due to the ongoing industry self-discipline, despite facing pressure on industry demand [1] - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 2.7 billion yuan and 5.9 billion yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 3.6 billion yuan and 6.9 billion yuan [1] - A new profit forecast for 2027 has been introduced at 8.8 billion yuan [1] Incentive Mechanism - Jidong Cement has implemented a restricted stock incentive plan to enhance its long-term incentive mechanism [1]

证券之星消息，9月3日水泥板块较上一交易日下跌1.29%，国统股份领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3813.56，下跌1.16%。深证成指报收于12472.0，下跌0.65%。水泥板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 从资金流向上来看，当日水泥板块主力资金净流出1.87亿元，游资资金净流入4941.11万元，散户资金净 流入1.38亿元。水泥板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000877 | 天山股份 | -3896.80万 | 10.85% | 478.97万 | 1.33% | -4375.77万 | -12.19% | | 600425 青松建化 | | 2831.21万 | 5.27% | 2413.59万 | 4.50% | -5244.81万 | -9.77% | ...