Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of a new group in the U.S. defense industry, referred to as the "Palantir Pack," which is linked to the influential "PayPal Mafia" led by Peter Thiel [3][4][20] - Palantir Technologies has seen a significant stock price increase of 340% in 2024, making it the best-performing company in the S&P 500, with a market capitalization surpassing many defense giants [3][8] - The interconnected network of venture capitalists and angel investors in Silicon Valley is fostering a robust investment-entrepreneur ecosystem, particularly in the defense sector [4][28] Group 1: Key Players and Companies - Peter Thiel is a central figure in both the "PayPal Mafia" and the "Palantir Pack," having founded Palantir and maintaining control through special voting rights [3][8] - The "Palantir Pack" includes numerous startups, with over 170 companies founded or led by former Palantir executives [3] - Anduril Industries, valued at $28 billion, has a high concentration of executives from Palantir, indicating the influence of the "Palantir Pack" [6][9] Group 2: Investment Trends - 8VC, founded by Joe Lonsdale, a member of the "Palantir Pack," has invested in several defense startups, including Epirus, which focuses on drone defense technology [15][17] - Y Combinator, led by Garry Tan, a former Palantir employee, made its first investment in the defense sector in August 2024, reflecting a growing interest in this area among Silicon Valley investors [17][20] - Notable venture capital firms like a16z and Valor have also participated in multiple funding rounds for Anduril, indicating a trend of increased investment in defense startups [25][28] Group 3: Political Connections - Members of the "Palantir Pack" have also engaged in political activities, notably supporting Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, which illustrates the intertwining of technology investment and political influence [20][30] - The relationships among key figures like Thiel, Musk, and Lonsdale highlight a network that not only invests in startups but also seeks to shape policy and regulatory environments favorable to their interests [20][30]

美国总统特朗普坚持提高关税的强硬态度(REUTERS) 然而，实际情况是，标普500指数在1～3月下跌了5%。财政扩张预期提高的德国和高科技股被买 入的香港等的同期股价涨幅超过2位数。容易受到美国股市影响的日本股市也表现低迷。如果美 国股市的下跌局面长期化，对日本股市也将带来逆风。 在特朗普上台前，许多投资者认为特朗普主张的关税只是"谈判筹码"，并未充分重视。也有观点 期待特朗普把股价当作自己的成绩单，顾及股市。但当市场目睹关税议案的提出和关税启动的速 度与规模超乎想象、以及特朗普和政府官员对当前股市下跌的轻视态度，乐观情绪消失。 "应做好美股再下跌10%的心理准备"，有经济学家这样说。美国股市1~3月的涨跌率明显逊色于 香港和欧洲，此前的"一强"地位正在动摇。资金远离美国股市的理由可能不仅仅是对眼前经济的 不安…… 美国股市正在失速。1～3月的股价指数涨跌率截至3月28日下跌5%，按季度计算，或1年半来首 次出现下跌。美国股市落后于欧洲股市等，此前的"一强"地位正在动摇。针对美国总统特朗普构 筑"关税壁垒"、谋求美国经济结构转型的野心，市场认为是在动真格，因此正在对美国经济形势 恶化做准备。 "忍耐是有限度 ...

核 心 观 点 特朗普就任后，美国外交政策明显转向孤立主义，其退出欧洲事务的想法，与俄罗斯拒绝北约东扩诉求不谋而合，迅速推动俄乌停火。冲突若能顺利平息，将成为 今年最大的预期差，这对于欧洲乃至于世界经济，将带来什么影响？ "独立自主"引来天量刺激。 特朗普就任后，开始积极推进俄乌停火。停火将是大概率事件， 根本原因是美国明显转向孤立主义，而俄罗斯希望北约势力不再东 扩，美俄核心诉求不谋而合 。 若俄乌冲突平息， 美国政策转向将加速欧洲走向独立自主 。长期以来，欧洲军备开支明显不足。为应对美国在欧洲防务中的淡出， 欧盟提出了《欧洲防务白皮书》，计划在2030年前投入万亿欧元重振军备， 相当于平均每年投入欧盟2024年总投资的5%、GDP的1%，预计将拉动GDP年增长0.8 个百分点以上。德国财政也"加油门"， 通过改革"债务刹车"，并加大财政支出，德国预计将向军事和基础设施领域投资近1万亿欧元，或每年拉动德国投资增长 11%，GDP年增长2个百分点以上 。 停火后，经济如何"重铸"？ 一方面， 俄乌冲突平息后， 能源的正常供应将降低欧洲企业生产成本， 天然气供给有望恢复运量巅峰时期的六成。成本下降将带 动企业营 ...