证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-10-10 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报：美国 GDP 上修，经济 韧性仍存》 - 2025.10.06 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：美国消费与就业分化，美元短期企 稳 ⚫ 核心观点： 当前美国经济呈现出"消费强劲+就业市场疲软"的非典型组合， 出现这一现象的内在原因是美国企业吸收了大量的关税冲击后并未 大幅涨价，从而稳定了居民购买力，但同时企业为了应对抬升的成本 也在降本增效，这导致了就业市场的疲软。相比之下，2021 年企业同 样面临成本攀升与供应瓶颈，但当时需求旺盛、通胀预期上升，为企 业提供了涨价空间。企业通过提价成功对冲了部分成本上升，并在扩 充产能与增加雇佣的同时实现利润增长。但今年以来企业定价能力弱 化，成本冲击更多被企业内部吸收，涨价幅度远小于成本抬升幅度， 企业投资与用工扩张动力减弱。 整体来看，除就业数据以外，美国经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has officially added 14 foreign entities to the unreliable entity list, marking a significant shift in trade relations and signaling a strong stance against those infringing on China's core interests [2][4]. Group 1: Announcement Details - The announcement was made on October 9, 2023, and it affects companies involved in sensitive areas such as anti-drone technology, defense security, and high-tech analysis [2]. - The measures include a complete ban on import and export activities with China, prohibition of new investments in China, and restrictions on data transmission and sensitive information sharing with these entities [4]. Group 2: Listed Entities - The following companies have been added to the unreliable entity list: 1. Dedrone by Axon (anti-drone technology) 2. DZYNE Technologies 3. Elbit Systems of America, LLC 4. Epirus, Inc. 5. AeroVironment, Inc. 6. Exelis Inc. 7. Alliant Techsystems Operations LLC 8. BAE Systems, Inc. 9. Teledyne FLIR, LLC 10. VSE Corporation 11. Cubic Global Defense 12. Recorded Future, Inc. 13. Halifax International Security Forum 14. TechInsights Inc. and its subsidiaries [4][9].

当地时间10月1日，欧盟国家领导人在丹麦首都哥本哈根召开峰会，重点讨论欧洲防务、俄乌冲突等关键议题。其中，建立欧盟"无人机墙"的提议成为会议 焦点之一。 原计划持续两小时的会议最终延长至四小时才告结束。据多方消息透露，会议期间气氛一度紧张，围绕"无人机墙"建设的讨论尤为激烈。欧洲媒体援引与会 外交官的消息称，德国和法国领导人对该计划提出了强烈批评，态度坚决，而欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在会后仍表示，该计划将继续推进。 这一分歧凸显了"无人机墙"计划在欧盟内部的争议性：它并非一个单纯的技术项目，而正逐渐演变为一场有关欧洲防务方向与政治立场的博弈。 "无人机墙"究竟能化解哪些风险？ 9月26日，欧盟防务官员与部分欧盟国家国防部长、乌克兰以及北约代表通过视频会议讨论"无人机墙"防御系统。 △10月1日欧盟领导人在丹麦哥本哈根举行非正式会议合影 欧盟负责防务的高级官员库比柳斯将其作为欧盟的"优先事项"。在库比柳斯看来，日前发生在北欧、东欧各地的无人机事件传递出"俄罗斯正在试探欧盟和 北约"的信号，对此欧盟必须作出"坚定、团结、迅速"的回应。 △库比柳斯来自立陶宛，是欧盟负责防务的高级官员 △欧洲媒体制作的"无人机墙"效果 ...

Group 1: War Evolution and Technology - The article discusses the shift from traditional warfare to a new form of "intelligent warfare" characterized by the use of drones, AI, and real-time data collaboration [2][5][11] - Historical context shows that warfare has always evolved with technological advancements, moving from manpower in the cold weapon era to industrial warfare and now to intelligent warfare [4][5][11] Group 2: Military Spending Implications - If major global powers increase military spending to 5% of GDP, it would lead to a structural transformation in military economics [6][10] - Current military expenditures are approximately $997 billion for the US (3.5% of GDP), $314 billion for China (1.6% of GDP), and €343 billion for the EU (1.9% of GDP) [7][8][9] - The global military expenditure could potentially double from $2.7 trillion to over $5 trillion, with 30%-35% allocated to equipment procurement and intelligent system development [10] Group 3: Key Defense Companies Overview - Major defense companies and their financials for 2024-2025 include: - RTX (Raytheon Technologies): Market Cap $193.2 billion, Revenue $67.5 billion, Growth +7% [21] - Lockheed Martin: Market Cap $107.4 billion, Revenue $68 billion, Growth +4% [21] - Northrop Grumman: Market Cap $71.1 billion, Revenue $39 billion, Growth +5% [21] - General Dynamics: Market Cap $78 billion, Revenue $42 billion, Growth +6% [21] - BAE Systems: Market Cap $75 billion, Revenue $38 billion, Growth +9% [21] - Thales: Market Cap $60.9 billion, Revenue $22 billion, Growth +3% [21] - Rheinmetall: Market Cap $92.8 billion, Revenue $22 billion, Growth +12% [21] - Leonardo: Market Cap $19.6 billion, Revenue $15 billion, Growth +2% [21] - Elbit Systems: Market Cap $6.9 billion, Revenue $5.5 billion, Growth +6% [21] - Hanwha Aerospace: Market Cap $7.8 billion, Revenue $7 billion, Growth +8% [21] Group 4: Future Warfare Scenarios - Potential future scenarios include: - A full-scale intelligent war driven by AI and unmanned systems if major powers enter irreconcilable conflicts [22] - A normalization of low-intensity, multi-regional conflicts without full-scale wars or true peace [23] - The possibility of peace being restructured through technology that helps prevent conflicts [24]

Core Viewpoint - European defense stocks have shown strong performance due to escalating war risks in Europe, with price increases continuing into the current week [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The report from Baader Europe highlights that defense sector stocks have risen significantly, driven by concerns over Russia's actions in the Baltic region and delayed large orders that were previously anticipated [1] - Thales received a new order for a modern air defense system from Denmark, while Rheinmetall is prepared to deliver "Sky Archer" air defense guns to Ukraine and other European countries [1] - Last week, Thales and Rheinmetall's stock prices increased by 12.7% and 8.7% respectively [1] Group 2: Daily Stock Movements - On Wednesday, Rheinmetall's stock rose by 2.5%, Hensoldt by 2.3%, Thales by 1.1%, Lenk Group by 0.95%, and Babcock International by 0.7% [1]

Group 1 - Japan and India are strengthening cooperation in economic investment and security, with a focus on enhancing trade and cultural exchanges [1][3] - India has secured a commitment from Japan for investments totaling 680 billion USD over the next decade, as part of an economic security agreement [1][3] - The two countries have revised the "Security Cooperation Declaration" for the first time in 17 years, emphasizing joint development of defense equipment and advanced military technologies [3] Group 2 - The collaboration between Japan and India is seen as a response to China's activities in the Indo-Pacific region, with both countries expressing serious concerns over the situation in the East and South China Seas [3] - Modi's visit to Japan and subsequent attendance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in China indicates India's strategy to balance relations among major powers [1][4] - The relationship between India and China is reportedly improving, with Modi highlighting the importance of stable bilateral relations for regional and global peace [4][5]

Group 1 - BPCE Bank is set to issue its first bond to finance European defense spending, aiming to meet the growing investor interest in this sector [1] - The bond issuance will be at least €500 million (approximately $582 million) and follows the newly launched "European Defense Bond" standard by the pan-European exchange [1] - This initiative reflects a fundamental shift in financing attitudes towards the defense industry since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, with defense companies becoming one of the hottest investment targets in Europe [1][2] Group 2 - The bond issuance comes amid a surge in defense spending, with NATO members agreeing to increase defense budgets to 5% of GDP, driven by geopolitical tensions and U.S. pressure [2] - BPCE's financing for the defense sector has increased 2.5 times, with financing for French defense product exports growing over 7 times [2] - The bond's initial pricing guidance indicates a yield approximately 105 to 110 basis points above mid-swap rates [1] Group 3 - BPCE has adopted a new framework called "European Defense Bond Label," developed in collaboration with key stakeholders in the defense and security financing ecosystem [3] - The bank will provide an annual fund allocation report verified by an external review agency, similar to green debt reporting standards [3] - There is uncertainty regarding the participation of sustainable investment-focused investors in this bond issuance [3]

Core Viewpoint - The value of core assets is being redefined by national security, supply chain stability, and energy independence as capital from the US, France, Japan, and emerging economies enters the market [2] Group 1: Investment Activities - SoftBank reached a $2 billion equity investment agreement with Intel, purchasing shares at $23 each [3] - The US government is considering converting part of the $10.9 billion subsidy under the CHIPS and Science Act into approximately 10% equity in Intel, potentially making it the largest shareholder [4] - This competition for Intel highlights its strategic role in the expansion of the US advanced semiconductor manufacturing and supply chain [4][5] Group 2: Strategic Importance of Intel - Intel's value has transcended its individual corporate worth, becoming a foundational infrastructure for US technological sovereignty [5] - The hidden value in Intel's asset package includes its role as a "national security vehicle" and "supply chain stabilizer" [6] - The US government's plan to convert subsidies into equity reflects a non-market valuation based on Intel's strategic necessity rather than its current profitability [6] Group 3: Global Capital Movements - The shift in capital movements indicates a global revaluation of core assets, with similar actions seen in France, Japan, and Saudi Arabia [7] - The French government has fully nationalized EDF, while Japan's national fund invested 900 billion yen in JSR, a leader in photoresists [7] - Central banks in Beijing and Warsaw are accumulating gold, indicating a trend towards securing national resources [7] Group 4: Changing Asset Valuation Logic - The previous focus on efficiency and globalization is being replaced by a new paradigm prioritizing national security, supply chain stability, and energy independence [9] - The traditional metrics of market discount rates and capital returns are being diminished in importance, with new core indicators emerging [9]

Group 1: Investment Announcements - Panjiang Co. plans to increase investment by 55.8 million yuan in its wholly-owned subsidiary, New Energy Zhenning Co., for the construction of a wind power project with a total investment of 279 million yuan [1] - Lianyungang's wholly-owned subsidiary, Yunport Ferry Co., intends to invest 548.8 million yuan in building a passenger and vehicle ferry, having signed a construction contract with Huanghai Shipbuilding Co. [1] - Guanggang Gas plans to use 350 million yuan of raised funds for the Wuhan Guanggang Semiconductor Electronic Gas Station project, with a total planned investment of 503 million yuan [1] - Hongjing Optoelectronics intends to invest in a new R&D and manufacturing headquarters with a total investment of 1.533 billion yuan [6] Group 2: Share Transfers - Anzheng Fashion's shareholder plans to transfer 5.35% of the company's shares, totaling 20.8 million shares at a price of 6.78 yuan per share, amounting to 141 million yuan [2] - Bidetech's actual controllers plan to transfer 29.9% of the company's shares, totaling 56.1672 million shares at a price of 15.97 yuan per share, amounting to 897 million yuan [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - Jingji Zhino reported sales of 203,600 pigs in July, generating revenue of 351 million yuan, with a cumulative sales revenue of 2.243 billion yuan from January to July [6] - Zhengbang Technology reported sales of 695,200 pigs in July, with a revenue of 741 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 91.38% and a cumulative revenue of 4.818 billion yuan from January to July [6] - Shuoshi Bio reported a 1.05% decrease in revenue to 176 million yuan for the first half of the year, with a net profit decline of 86.35% to 3.9926 million yuan [9] Group 4: Regulatory Issues - Jihua Group is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected information disclosure violations [4] - *ST Gaohong received a notice indicating potential major illegal delisting due to fraudulent issuance of shares and false records in annual reports from 2015 to 2023 [4] Group 5: Other Announcements - Wanjing Technology plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [7] - Guangdong Hongda's subsidiary intends to acquire 60% of Changzhilin for 1.02 billion yuan, enhancing its defense equipment business [7] - Lio Co. approved a plan to use up to 3 billion yuan of its own funds for securities investments [8]

Core Viewpoint - Boeing faces significant challenges as approximately 3,200 workers at its defense plant in St. Louis initiated a strike, marking the first such action since the mid-1990s, following the rejection of a new contract proposal [1][2] Group 1: Strike Details - The strike is organized by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) District 837, affecting production lines for fighter jets F-15, F/A-18, and some missile products [1] - The latest contract proposal from Boeing included a 20% wage increase over four years, a one-time signing bonus of $5,000, and improved sick leave and vacation terms, but workers felt it did not adequately reflect their contributions [2] Group 2: Boeing's Recovery Challenges - Boeing's CEO attempted to downplay the strike's impact, stating it is smaller than last year's strike, but the labor dispute still casts a shadow over the company's recovery efforts amid low morale and ongoing scrutiny [2] - Despite recent signs of recovery, including reduced financial losses and a significant order from Qatar Airways for 210 aircraft, Boeing continues to grapple with the repercussions of past safety incidents and the COVID-19 pandemic [2] Group 3: Industry-Wide Labor Issues - The strike highlights deeper structural labor issues within the U.S. defense industry, particularly at Boeing's St. Louis facility, which is crucial for producing key military equipment [4] - A report by PwC and the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) indicates that 29% of the aerospace and defense workforce is over 55 years old, with a projected risk of 3.5 million skilled worker shortages by 2026 [4] - The industry faces challenges in attracting young talent, as new graduates show little interest in aerospace and defense careers, preferring sectors with better pay flexibility and job experiences [4][5] Group 4: Long-term Implications - Experts have warned that the lack of qualified workers could severely impact the U.S. military's industrial base, emphasizing the need for improved wages, benefits, and training to retain skilled workers [5] - The labor issues in the defense sector are seen as structural and long-term, posing significant obstacles to the future development of the U.S. defense industry if not addressed [5]