Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PMI) reported Q2 2025 revenue of $10.1 billion, with an organic year-over-year growth of 6.8%. For the first half of 2025, revenue reached $19.4 billion, up 6.5% year-over-year. The revenue from smoke-free products was $4.2 billion, reflecting a 14.5% organic growth and accounting for 41% of total revenue [4][9]. - The Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) segment continues to grow, with Q2 HNB sales reaching 38.8 billion units, a year-over-year increase of 9.2%. Excluding channel inventory effects, the growth rate was 11.4%. As of Q2 2025, the number of HNB users reached 34 million, with Japan's HNB penetration rate increasing to 48% [4][10]. - British American Tobacco (BAT) reported H1 2025 revenue of £12.569 billion, a 1.8% increase year-over-year at constant exchange rates. The revenue from new tobacco products was £1.651 billion, up 2.4%, representing 18.2% of total revenue [4][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The global tobacco industry is approaching a market size of nearly $1 trillion, with new tobacco products growing at a faster pace and expected to capture more market share. Major players like PMI and BAT are increasing their focus on smoke-free products, particularly HNB [4][12]. Company Performance - PMI's Q2 2025 performance highlights include a 14.5% increase in smoke-free product revenue and a 100% increase in electronic vapor product sales. The company maintains a full-year sales growth forecast of 10-12% for HNB products [4][9]. - BAT's H1 2025 results show a mixed performance in new tobacco products, with HNB revenue growing modestly while electronic vapor products faced challenges due to regulatory issues [4][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies linked to new tobacco products, such as Smoore International, a leading OEM for BAT's HNB products, and Yingqu Technology, the manufacturer for PMI's IQOS [4][12].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [9] Core Insights - The report highlights that reduced-harm products and oral tobacco have become the core growth engines for British American Tobacco (BAT) and Philip Morris International (PMI) [1][3] - BAT's revenue for the first half of 2025 was £12.069 billion, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year, but a 1.8% increase when excluding currency effects, primarily driven by recovery in the US market [1] - PMI reported a revenue of $19.4 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [3] Summary by Sections British American Tobacco (BAT) - BAT's operating profit for the first half of 2025 was £5.069 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with an operating margin rising by 7.5 percentage points to 42.0% [1] - The diluted EPS for BAT was £2.036, up 1.6% year-on-year [1] - The number of consumers of BAT's reduced-harm products reached 30.5 million, an increase of 1.4 million year-on-year [2] - Modern oral products generated £470 million in revenue, a 38.1% increase year-on-year, with sales volume rising by 42.2% [2] Philip Morris International (PMI) - PMI's gross profit for the first half of 2025 was $13.1 billion, a 12.0% increase year-on-year [3] - The adjusted diluted EPS for PMI was $3.6, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [3] - PMI's total shipment volume for the first half of 2025 was 387.9 billion units, a 2.5% increase year-on-year [4] - Reduced-harm product shipments reached 87.9 billion units, a 13.1% increase year-on-year, with 41.5 million consumers globally, an increase of 5 million [4] Regional Performance - In Japan, IQOS covered over 10 million legal-age consumers, with a shipment volume of 13.9 billion units in Q2 2025, a 3.2% increase year-on-year [6] - In the EU, IQOS shipments reached 6 billion units in Q2 2025, a 13.21% increase year-on-year [6] - In South Korea, IQOS shipments were 1.6 billion units in Q2 2025, a 12.8% increase year-on-year [6] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on the vaping supply chain, including companies like Smoore International and Yihua Healthcare, as well as the tobacco supply chain with companies like China Tobacco Hong Kong and China Boton [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - British American Tobacco (BAT) reported a revenue of £12.069 billion for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% (an increase of 1.8% at constant exchange rates) [2][6] - Revenue from combustible tobacco decreased by 3.5% to £9.515 billion (an increase of 0.8% at constant exchange rates), with total cigarette sales down by 8.7% to 229 billion sticks [2][6] - Revenue from new tobacco products remained flat at £1.651 billion (an increase of 2.4% at constant exchange rates), accounting for 13.7% of total revenue, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][6] - The company expects a revenue growth of 1%-2% for 2025 (closer to the upper limit) and mid-single-digit growth for new tobacco products, with a projected revenue growth of 3%-5% for 2026 [2][6] Summary by Sections Combustible Tobacco - Revenue decreased by 3.5% to £9.515 billion, driven by price increases, while total cigarette sales fell by 8.7% to 229 billion sticks [2][6] New Tobacco Products - Revenue remained flat at £1.651 billion, with a 2.4% increase at constant exchange rates. The modern oral tobacco segment showed strong growth, while heated tobacco products (HNB) performed steadily, and vaping products faced pressure from illegal markets [2][6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 1%-2% for 2025 and mid-single-digit growth for new tobacco products, with expectations of 3%-5% growth in 2026 [2][6] Product Performance - Vaping products saw a revenue decline of 15.3% due to illegal market impacts, while heated tobacco products showed a 0.8% revenue increase. Modern oral tobacco revenue surged by 38.1% [12]

Market Overview - The London Stock Exchange's FTSE 100 index closed at 9068.58 points on August 1, down 64.23 points, representing a decline of 0.70% [1] - All three major European stock indices experienced declines on the same day [1] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks led the gains in the London stock market, with the top five performers being: - Pearson Group, up 6.06% - Melrose Industries, up 5.00% - Unilever, up 2.79% - British American Tobacco, up 2.25% - Fresnillo, a precious metals producer, up 2.07% [1] - Service stocks were the biggest losers, with the top five decliners being: - Intertek Group, down 6.68% - WSP Global, down 6.15% - Rentokil Initial, down 4.72% - Babcock International Group, down 3.99% - Barclays Bank, down 3.95% [1] Other European Indices - The CAC 40 index in Paris closed at 7546.16 points, down 225.81 points, a decline of 2.91% [1] - The DAX index in Frankfurt closed at 23425.97 points, down 639.50 points, a decline of 2.66% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The new tobacco products from British American Tobacco (BAT) contributed significantly to profits in the first half of 2025, with revenues of £1.651 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and an adjusted gross profit of £1.006 billion, up 6.8% [1] - BAT expects accelerated growth in its new tobacco business in the second half of 2025, projecting a mid-single-digit revenue growth for the full year [1] - The Glo Hilo product received positive feedback from its trial in Sendai, Japan, and there are plans for further promotion in Europe [2] - The heated tobacco segment saw a slight revenue increase of 0.8% in the first half of 2025, although market share declined due to increased competition [2] - The vaping segment faced challenges, with Vuse sales down 12.9% and revenues down 15.3% due to the proliferation of illegal products [3] - The oral tobacco segment, particularly Velo, experienced significant growth, with sales up 42.2% and revenues up 38.1% in the first half of 2025 [4] - The company is optimistic about the future growth of Glo Hilo and the oral tobacco segment, while the vaping segment may recover due to regulatory actions against illegal products [5] Financial Summary - Projected revenues for the company from 2025 to 2027 are £13.161 billion, £15.590 billion, and £18.633 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11.55%, 18.45%, and 19.52% respectively [5] - Projected net profits for the same period are £1.311 billion, £2.040 billion, and £2.763 billion, with growth rates of 0.57%, 55.68%, and 35.40% respectively [5] - The current market capitalization is approximately HK$131.19 billion [6]

Group 1 - The tobacco sector saw an increase of 1.53%, ranking 8th among concept sectors, with 32 stocks rising, including a limit-up for Kain Co., and significant gains for Huichen Co., Xiangyi Rongtong, and Qiming Star, which rose by 8.32%, 6.01%, and 4.45% respectively [1][2] - The tobacco sector experienced a net inflow of 239 million yuan from main funds, with 16 stocks receiving net inflows, and 5 stocks exceeding 10 million yuan in net inflow, led by Qiming Star with a net inflow of 137 million yuan [2][3] - Kain Co., Zhongke Information, and Guanhao High-tech had the highest net inflow ratios at 32.04%, 13.49%, and 13.09% respectively [3][4] Group 2 - The top gainers in the tobacco sector included Qiming Star, Zhongke Information, Kain Co., and Huichen Co., with respective daily gains of 4.45%, 4.33%, 9.96%, and 8.32% [3][4] - The stocks with the largest declines included Yuanwanggu, Yaxiang Co., and Changrong Co., which fell by 4.24%, 2.35%, and 2.11% respectively [1][5] - The overall market performance showed a mixed trend with various sectors experiencing both gains and losses, indicating a diverse investment landscape [2][5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group revenue increased by 1.8%, adjusted gross profit rose by 3%, and adjusted profit from operations grew by 1.9% [8][24] - Adjusted diluted EPS increased by 1.7% [21] - The company anticipates full-year revenue at the top end of the 1% to 2% guidance [8][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Smokeless products now account for 18.2% of group revenue, up 70 basis points year-over-year, with 1.4 million new smokeless consumers added [3] - New categories revenue increased by 2.4%, driven by modern oral growth of over 40% and heated products growth of more than 3% [9] - Combustibles revenue increased by 0.8%, with volume decline offset by strong pricing [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., combustibles revenue grew by 3.8%, marking a return to revenue and profit growth for the first time since 2022 [13] - The AME region saw revenue rise by 3.5%, with combustibles up nearly 3% [15] - APMEA region experienced a total revenue decline of 4.8%, with combustibles down 7.9% [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on quality growth and balancing top and bottom line delivery, with a strong emphasis on cash generation [4][6] - A multi-category strategy is being pursued to capitalize on consumer trends towards new categories [26] - The introduction of the "Fit to Win" program aims to simplify operations and enhance agility, targeting £500 million in annualized savings by 2028 [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the pathway ahead, highlighting the transformation of the nicotine industry and the company's readiness to benefit from these changes [26] - The company remains optimistic about regulatory developments in the U.S. that could improve the market for smokeless products [40] - Future growth is expected to be driven by continued strength in the U.S. and the rollout of new products [24][45] Other Important Information - The company has increased its 2025 share buyback program by £200 million to £1.1 billion [3][23] - The company has delivered nearly £900 million in productivity savings since 2023 and aims to exceed £1.2 billion by year-end [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the early performance of the GloHilo launch in Japan? - Feedback from consumers has been positive, with competitive offers tailored for the Japanese market [53][54] Question: What is the momentum for VeloPlus in the U.S.? - VeloPlus is maintaining strong momentum with a high retention rate of 70% and increasing market share [56] Question: Can you clarify the Fit to Win program's costs? - There will be some costs in 2025, but these are included in the guidance, with £500 million in annualized savings targeted by 2028 [60] Question: What is the performance of the vape business in the AME region? - The vape business has faced challenges in Canada due to regulations, but there is potential for growth as the market transitions to closed systems [68] Question: How is the company addressing the illegal vapor market in the U.S.? - The company is seeing a 40% reduction in illicit vapor shipments, and there is optimism about regulatory enforcement improving the market [72][74]

Macro Strategy - The chemical sector has seen continuous catalysts on both supply and demand sides since 2024, with the current "anti-involution" trend enhancing the market outlook, driven by a favorable fundamental environment and potential valuation uplift from emerging industries [1][23] - More than half of the existing convertible bonds in the chemical sector are issued at the peak of the cycle, currently entering or about to enter the redemption period, coinciding with an upward cycle, leading to more proactive debt conversion measures [1][23] - The majority of chemical convertible bonds are small-cap, which, combined with their near-term characteristics, amplifies the asymmetry of returns [1][23] Currency Exchange Rate - The RMB central parity has shown a gradual appreciation trend, with the exchange rate expected to challenge the 7.15 range again, and the spot exchange rate may drop to the 7.10-7.15 range in August [1][25] - The recent strengthening of the RMB is supported by optimistic expectations from US-China trade negotiations and a robust domestic stock market [1][25] Anti-Involution Policy - The "anti-involution" price governance aims to address three main objectives: short-term regulation of price wars, medium-term capacity reduction to promote supply-demand balance, and long-term price recovery, particularly in PPI [2][26] - The previous supply-side reforms led to a 10-month recovery in PPI, and under neutral assumptions, a similar recovery may take 11-12 months, potentially reaching around 1.9% by September next year [2][26] Industry Rotation - The market is expected to remain optimistic in the third quarter, with a focus on sectors that align with upcoming policies and key events, particularly those benefiting from the "anti-involution" strategy [3][5] - Suggested sectors for investment include those with potential short-term demand improvements, such as photovoltaic, coal, and chemical industries, as well as technology sectors with recent catalysts [5][3] Company-Specific Insights - Xidi Microelectronics is positioned as a leading player in the analog chip sector, with a projected revenue growth of 32.10% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by significant contributions from its audio coil motor driver chip product line [11][12] - Minshida reported a 27.91% year-on-year revenue increase in its 2025 mid-year report, with expectations for continued growth in the transformer market driven by demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and wind power [13] - Gaomei's second-quarter performance is expected to turn profitable due to supply-side optimization driven by the "anti-involution" policy, with N-type silicon wafer prices rising to 1.1 yuan per piece [14][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][17]. Core Views - The report indicates that China Tobacco Hong Kong has reached a consensus with the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration to maintain its exclusive operation of duty-free cigarette exports within China, suggesting limited impact from recent policy changes [2][10]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with total revenue projected to increase from HKD 11.836 billion in 2023 to HKD 16.690 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.4% [4][11]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow from HKD 599 million in 2023 to HKD 1.208 billion in 2027, with a notable increase of 59.7% in 2023 and a steady growth trajectory thereafter [4][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: HKD 11,836 million - 2024: HKD 13,074 million (+10.5%) - 2025: HKD 14,378 million (+10.0%) - 2026: HKD 15,545 million (+8.1%) - 2027: HKD 16,690 million (+7.4%) [4]. - Net profit projections are: - 2023: HKD 599 million - 2024: HKD 854 million (+42.6%) - 2025: HKD 969 million (+13.5%) - 2026: HKD 1,092 million (+12.7%) - 2027: HKD 1,208 million (+10.6%) [4]. - The report maintains EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at HKD 1.40, HKD 1.58, and HKD 1.75 respectively [10]. Market Data - The current stock price is HKD 32.65, with a market capitalization of HKD 22,583 million and a total share count of 692 million [6][7]. - The stock has traded within a 52-week range of HKD 13.82 to HKD 37.30 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the release of the draft management measures for domestic duty-free tobacco products, indicating a regulatory shift aimed at improving market order and protecting tax revenues [8] - The company is positioned as the only listed entity under China Tobacco International, focusing on the import and export of tobacco products, with a significant portion of revenue expected from the domestic duty-free market [8] - The report anticipates a steady growth in revenue and profit, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being HKD 870.39 million, HKD 1,011.77 million, and HKD 1,125.43 million respectively [1][8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections (in million HKD) are as follows: 2023A: 11,836, 2024A: 13,074, 2025E: 13,432, 2026E: 14,656, 2027E: 15,718, with year-on-year growth rates of 42.19%, 10.46%, 2.74%, 9.11%, and 7.25% respectively [1] - The diluted EPS forecasts are: 2023A: 0.87, 2024A: 1.23, 2025E: 1.26, 2026E: 1.46, 2027E: 1.63, with corresponding P/E ratios of 37.72, 26.45, 25.95, 22.32, and 20.07 [1] - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 11.00% by 2027 [9] Market Context - The report discusses the regulatory environment affecting the duty-free tobacco market, emphasizing the need for compliance with new management measures to enhance operational integrity [8] - The company is expected to benefit from the consolidation of resources within the international tobacco supply chain, which may lead to increased market share and profitability [8]