Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/09/30 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: NDRC will implement macroeconomic policies in a timely manner. Futures Pri ...

全市社会消费品零售总额6723.43亿元，同比增长3.8% 【深圳商报讯】（首席记者 刘琼）9月28日，深圳市统计局发布2025年1—8月深圳经济运行情况。数据 显示，1—8月，全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.4%，增速比1—7月加快0.3个百分点。规模以上服 务业、市场销售等经济指标均实现较快增长。深圳经济运行保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 工业生产稳步增长 8月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长7.0%，比7月份加快2.0个百分点。1—8月，全市规模以上工业增 加值同比增长4.4%，增速比1—7月加快0.3个百分点。 分门类看，采矿业增加值与上年同期持平，制造业增长4.6%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增 长6.8%。主要行业大类中，通用设备制造业增长16.9%，仪器仪表制造业增长8.3%，电气机械和器材制 造业增长7.4%。 分消费类型看，商品零售增长4.1%；餐饮收入增长1.9%。基本生活类商品增势较好，限额以上单位日 用品类、粮油食品类零售额分别增长11.9%、7.9%。消费品以旧换新政策继续显效，限额以上单位家用 电器和音像器材类、文化办公用品类、通讯器材类零售额分别增长45.5%、30.0% ...

Economic Overview - Dalian's economy showed stable performance in the first eight months of the year, with industrial production improving and consumer momentum continuing to release [1] - The city's industrial added value for enterprises above designated size increased by 12.8% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month [1] Industrial Performance - The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 15.9% year-on-year, continuing a double-digit growth trend [1] - State-owned enterprises saw a significant increase in added value by 21.9%, while joint-stock enterprises grew by 16.7%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises by 4.2%, and private enterprises by 2.3% [2] - Mining industry added value surged by 61.5%, while manufacturing grew by 13.3% and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 6.8% [2] - Key industries such as petrochemical increased by 7.1%, equipment manufacturing by 17.8%, with notable growth in the railway and shipbuilding industry at 62.0% and the automotive industry at 27.7% [2] - Pharmaceutical manufacturing saw a remarkable increase of 42.9%, with raw material drug manufacturing skyrocketing by 536.3% [2] Service Sector - The service sector in Dalian remained stable, with most industries experiencing growth [3] - The total turnover of road, water, and air transport increased by 1.8%, 4.1%, and 2.5% respectively [3] - Retail sales for large-scale units reached 579.9 billion yuan, marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in categories such as building materials (990.7%) and home appliances (285.9%) [3] Consumer Prices and Electricity Consumption - Consumer prices in Dalian continued to operate at low levels, with food and beverage prices decreasing by 1.6% [4] - Total electricity consumption in the city reached 33.79 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with industrial electricity consumption at 20.49 billion kWh, growing by 1.6% [4]

Economic Overview - Jinan's economy showed overall stability in the first eight months of 2023, with a focus on implementing national macro policies effectively [1] - The city's industrial production increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1% in the value added of above-scale industries [1] Industrial Performance - The six key industries in Jinan experienced a combined value added growth of 13.0%, surpassing the overall industrial growth by 4.9 percentage points [1] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors saw remarkable growth, with increases of 63.3% and 27.6% in the automotive manufacturing sector [1] - The equipment manufacturing industry maintained a strong growth rate of 21.3%, contributing 9.6 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [1] - High-tech manufacturing also performed well, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1%, contributing 4.2 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [1] Service Sector - The service sector showed steady growth, with above-scale service industry revenues reaching 275.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [2] - Among the ten major service sectors, eight reported revenue growth, with transportation, storage, and postal services generating 115.58 billion yuan, up 5.2% [2] - The leasing and business services sector achieved a revenue of 45.68 billion yuan, growing by 15.9% [2] - Private enterprises in the above-scale service sector generated 109.12 billion yuan, accounting for 39.6% of the total service revenue, with an 8.8% growth rate [2] Retail and Consumption - Retail sales in Jinan showed a stable growth, with a total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 131.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [3] - Basic living goods performed well, with food and oil retail sales increasing by 5.8% and daily necessities by 8.4% [3] - Online consumption remained active, with retail sales through public networks reaching 35.26 billion yuan, growing by 21.2% [3] - The "trade-in" policy positively impacted sales, with significant growth in communication equipment (34.7%), cultural and office supplies (32.5%), and new energy vehicles (12.8%) [3] Financial and Trade Performance - Financial institutions in Jinan reported a total deposit balance of 3.19063 trillion yuan, a growth of 6.9% year-to-date [4] - The total loan balance reached 3.42752 trillion yuan, increasing by 10.2% since the beginning of the year [4] - Jinan's foreign trade saw rapid growth, with total imports and exports reaching 178.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [4] - Exports amounted to 118.16 billion yuan (up 21.7%), while imports were 59.87 billion yuan (up 36.3%) [4] - Private enterprises accounted for 59.5% of the total trade, with a total of 105.92 billion yuan in imports and exports, growing by 17.5% [4] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Jinan increased by 0.2% cumulatively in the first eight months, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% in August [5] - Prices of eight major categories of goods and services showed a "five up, three down" trend, with healthcare and living services rising by 0.3%, clothing by 1.6%, and education and entertainment by 5.8% [5] - Conversely, housing prices decreased by 0.6%, food and tobacco prices fell by 1.7%, and transportation and communication prices dropped by 2.9% [5]

Economic Overview - In August, Guangdong's economy showed overall stability despite a complex external environment and insufficient domestic demand [1] - From January to August, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 2.2% year-on-year, with the manufacturing sector growing by 2.6% [1][2] Key Industries Performance - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry saw a 7.0% increase in added value, while the automotive manufacturing industry grew by 8.3% [1][2] - The production of industrial robots, service robots, and civilian drones increased by 32.1%, 17.3%, and 54.7% respectively [2] - Clean energy products also showed strong growth, with wind turbine units, solar cells, and new energy vehicles increasing by 43.3%, 81.5%, and 21.9% respectively [2] Consumer Market Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Guangdong increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the first eight months, with urban consumption growing by 3.4% and rural consumption by 1.3% [2][3] - Retail sales through public networks grew by 17.9%, accounting for 43.7% of total retail sales, an increase of 5.4 percentage points from the previous year [3] Service Sector Growth - The revenue of the service industry above designated size reached 3.38 trillion yuan, marking a 7.0% year-on-year increase [4] - Key sectors such as information transmission, software and IT services, and transportation services reported revenue growth of 9.2%, 6.9%, and 8.7% respectively [4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Guangdong decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in investments in the transportation sector, including rail and water transport [4][5] - Investment in research and experimental development increased by 15.4%, indicating a focus on innovation [5] - Investment in modern service industries, particularly in internet and related services, grew by 63.8% [5]

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation of the province remains stable in the first eight months of the year, with a year-on-year industrial added value growth of 3.5% [1] - High-tech manufacturing industry added value increased by 6.4% [1] Industrial Performance - Mining industry added value grew by 10.1%, manufacturing by 2.9%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 0.1% [1] - Among 40 major industrial categories, 23 experienced year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 57.5% [1] - Notable product performance includes transformer production up by 63%, chemical reagents by 35.9%, civil steel ships by 32.1%, and new energy vehicles by 19.7% [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector grew rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and high-tech manufacturing investment up by 16.7% [1] - Investment in the primary industry increased by 20.4%, while the secondary industry saw a growth of 4.1% [1] - Investment in construction projects exceeding one billion yuan grew by 2.8% [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 687.48 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [2] - Basic living goods sales showed stable growth, with food and oil retail sales up by 16% and daily necessities by 11.4% [2] - Upgraded consumer goods saw significant sales growth, including smartphones up by 120%, wearable smart devices by 77.8%, and energy-efficient home appliances by 44.7% [2] Trade Performance - The total import and export value reached 501.94 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [2] - Exports totaled 267.67 billion yuan, growing by 11.6%, with notable increases in agricultural products by 9.6% and steel by 5.7% [2] - Electrical equipment exports increased by 14.6%, while ship exports rose by 23.1% [2] Price Trends - Consumer prices decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, while industrial producer prices fell by 4.8% [2] - The purchase prices for industrial producers declined by 5.2% [2]

Economic Performance Overview - Yunnan Province's industrial added value increased by 4% year-on-year from January to August, with significant contributions from various sectors [1][2] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a notable growth of 15.4%, accelerating by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 12.5%, contributing 23.6% to the overall industrial growth [1] Sector-Specific Growth - The coal industry reported a 12.4% increase in added value, maintaining a growth rate above 10% throughout the year [2] - The electronic industry experienced an 18.9% growth, marking a 3.4 percentage point acceleration from the previous month [1] - The non-tobacco and non-energy industrial sectors grew by 7.4%, indicating a diversification in industrial growth [1] Consumer and Investment Trends - Social retail sales in Yunnan reached 838.08 billion yuan, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [2] - Fixed asset investment saw a slight increase of 0.3%, with the first industry growing by 2.5% and the third industry declining by 0.5% [2] - The production of new energy vehicles and solar batteries surged by 83% and 64.9% respectively, highlighting a shift towards greener industrial practices [2] Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance is stable, with high-quality development being actively pursued [3] - Challenges such as weak expectations and insufficient effective demand remain, necessitating further efforts to solidify economic recovery [3] - Future policies will focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations to promote healthy economic development [3]

Economic Overview - The provincial economy has maintained a stable and positive trend in the first eight months, with steady industrial production, effective investment growth, and a robust consumer market [1][2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 8.4% year-on-year in the first eight months [2] - The equipment manufacturing industry saw significant growth, with an increase of 11.8% in added value, and specific sectors such as electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing growing by 41.8% [1] - Key products showed notable increases: coal production up by 2.2%, natural gas production up by 3.4%, and automobile production up by 16.6%, with new energy vehicles increasing by 17.6% [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year, with industrial investment showing a rapid increase of 19.4% [1] - Manufacturing investment rose by 23.2%, and industrial technological transformation investment surged by 31% [1] - Private investment also performed well, increasing by 11%, which is 6.9 percentage points higher than the overall investment growth rate [1] Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods by enterprises above designated size increased by 7.9% year-on-year [2] - The "old for new" consumption policy showed effectiveness, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment retail sales rising by 33.7% [2] - Online retail remained active, with a 21.2% year-on-year increase in sales through public networks, accounting for 22.6% of total retail sales [2] Foreign Trade - The total import and export value reached 332.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [2] - Exports amounted to 230.434 billion yuan, growing by 13.2%, while imports were 102.163 billion yuan, up by 4.8% [2] - The export of "new three samples" products, including lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles, saw remarkable growth, with increases of 97.7% and 84.4% respectively [2]

Economic Overview - The provincial economy has maintained a stable and positive trend in the first eight months, with steady industrial production, effective investment growth, and a robust consumer market [1][2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 8.4% year-on-year in the first eight months [1] - The equipment manufacturing industry experienced significant growth, with an increase of 11.8% in added value, and specific sectors such as electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing saw a remarkable 41.8% increase [1] - Key products showed varied growth, including coal production up by 2.2%, natural gas production up by 3.4%, and automobile production up by 16.6%, with new energy vehicles increasing by 17.6% [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year, with industrial investment showing a rapid increase of 19.4% [1] - Manufacturing investment rose by 23.2%, and industrial technological transformation investment surged by 31% [1] - Private investment also performed well, increasing by 11%, which is 6.9 percentage points higher than the overall investment growth rate [1] Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods in enterprises above designated size increased by 7.9% year-on-year [2] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy showed positive effects, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment retail sales rising by 33.7% [2] - Online retail remained active, with a 21.2% year-on-year increase in sales through public networks, accounting for 22.6% of total retail sales [2] Foreign Trade - The total import and export value reached 332.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [2] - Exports amounted to 230.434 billion yuan, growing by 13.2%, while imports were 102.163 billion yuan, up by 4.8% [2] - The export of "new three samples" products, including lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles, saw significant growth, with increases of 97.7% and 84.4% respectively [2]

Production Insights - Industrial production growth in August was 5.2%, down from 5.7% in July and below the market expectation of 5.75%[3] - The service production index increased by 5.6% year-on-year in August, slightly lower than the 5.8% in July[3] - The production resilience is supported by the expansion in the PMI production index, although both industrial and service sectors show signs of marginal weakening[3] Demand Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year in August, significantly lower than the previous month's 1.6% and below the market expectation of 1.29%[3] - Real estate investment plummeted by 12.9% year-on-year, worsening from a 12.0% decline in July and exceeding market expectations of -12.4%[3] - Retail sales growth was 3.4% in August, down from 3.7% in July and below the expected 3.82%[3] Investment Dynamics - Manufacturing investment growth was 5.1%, down from 6.2% in July, reflecting a decline in marginal returns due to prior equipment updates and external demand weakening[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, down from 3.2% in July, influenced by seasonal construction factors and insufficient domestic demand[4] - Private investment fell by 2.3% year-on-year in August, indicating a further decline in investment sentiment[4] Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance in August reflects persistent production resilience but continued pressure on demand, with both consumption and investment showing signs of marginal weakening[4] - Future economic stability will depend on the effectiveness of policy measures and the restoration of market confidence, particularly in the fourth quarter[4] - Risks include potential export weakness, further declines in the real estate market, and insufficient policy support[4]