沪指6月19日下跌0.79%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有1个，涨幅居前的行业为石油石化，涨幅分别 为0.86%。跌幅居前的行业为纺织服饰、美容护理，跌幅分别为2.36%、2.28%。纺织服饰行业位居今日 跌幅榜首位。 纺织服饰行业资金流入榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300952 | 恒辉安防 | 0.36 | 6.16 | 2052.40 | | 300840 | 酷特智能 | -0.45 | 8.04 | 1317.89 | | 603665 | 康隆达 | 0.83 | 2.11 | 963.52 | | 002780 | 三夫户外 | -5.74 | 14.69 | 940.21 | | 300819 | 聚杰微纤 | -1.23 | 2.39 | 702.23 | | 603587 | 地素时尚 | -2.86 | 4.09 | 575.54 | | 002397 | 梦洁股份 | -0.52 | 3.06 | 353.85 | | 300577 | 开润股份 | ...

【博时市场点评6月19日】风险偏好收敛，沪深两市调整 6月19日，A股三大指数下跌。截至收盘，上证指数报3362.11点，下跌0.79%；深证成指报10051.97点， 下跌1.21%；创业板指报2026.82点，下跌1.36%；科创100报1022.12点，下跌0.46%。申万一级行业中， 仅石油石化上涨，涨幅为0.86%；纺织服饰、美容护理、轻工制造跌幅靠前，分别下跌2.36%、2.28%、 1.96%。699只个股上涨，4471只个股下跌。 简评：通过深化科创板改革"1+6"政策措施，重启未盈利企业适用科创板第五套标准上市，未盈利的优 质企业可在成长层渡过研发高风险期，盈利达标后转至科创板主层或主板，从而对科创企业形成全生命 周期的资本市场多层次支持链条，有助于提振科创企业发展信心，避免优质企业因盈利门槛外流，促进 资本市场各板块良性互动。 美联储公布6月利率决议，将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第四次会议按兵不动，符合市场预 期。美联储表示，对前景的不确定性已减弱，但仍然处于较高水平。美联储将2025年GDP预估下调至 1.4%，同时将通胀预期上调至3%。另外，美联储点阵图显示，202 ...

盘面回顾：全天窄幅震荡，领涨板块创新药和银行均出现调整。周二 A 股的明显变化，是此前领 涨市场的创新药和银行板块出现明显调整，在连续上涨后遇阻回落。取而代之的是煤炭、公用事业、石 油石化等高股息红利方向领涨，防御型品种内部实现高低切换。大盘全天窄幅震荡，沪指收盘依然站在 20 日均线之上，交易量相比周一小幅萎缩。板块表现涨跌互现，上涨个股数量超过 2200 家，市场依然 有着不错的赚钱效应。领涨板块分别是煤炭、公用事业、石油石化、交通运输、商贸零售等，多为前期 滞涨的防御型板块；领跌板块包括医药、美容护理、传媒、纺织服饰、轻工等。 风险提示：关税预期的反复摇摆，关税冲击的后续影响，美联储降息延后，海外经济衰退超预期， 国内经济复苏不及预期，政策执行不及预期等。 东局势紧张并未影响 A 股走势，大盘仍然在犹豫中缓慢前行。本周初中东局势的紧张令市场情绪 较为紧张，但实际影响比较影响，A 股并未受到该事件的影响，继续延续窄幅震荡的格局。近期市场对 于贸易冲突的担忧情绪进一步缓解，市场在震荡中维持缓慢盘升的格局，均线慢慢开始发散。6 月上中 旬贸易谈判和关税事件窗口已经慢慢过去，即将迎来 6 月中下旬的政策窗口期， ...

| | | 上周公募调研次数前十个股 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A 股间称 | 所属申万一级行业 周涨跌幅(%) | | 被调研次数(次) | | 天字通信 | 通信 | 14.26 | 57 | | 中科曙光 | 计算机 | 10. 65 | 46 | | 海元信息 | 电子 | 0.68 | 46 | | 孩子王 | 商贸零售 | -11. 71 | 36 | | 幸华珠宝 | 纺织服饰 | 13.35 | 34 | | 华曙高科 | 机械设备 | -1.88 | 29 | | 海天瑞声 | 计算机 | 1.27 | 26 | | 东方申抄 | 家用电器 | -1.18 | 20 | | 西麦食品 | 食品饮料 | 6.49 | 19 | | 隆利科技 | 电子 | 13. 38 | 17 | | | | 数据整理自:公募排排网,统计周期 2025年6月9日-6月15日,以上内容不构成股 | | | | | 票推荐或投资建议,短期个股业绩不代表未来表现,亦不代表基金必然投资方向。 | | 公募机构扎堆调研科技领域。上周共有17个申万一级行业获得公募机构重点调研，各行业 ...

Market Performance - The market experienced a rebound with the ChiNext leading the gains, closing at 2057.32, up by 0.66% [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3388.73, up by 0.35%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10163.55, up by 0.41% [2][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 252.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [7] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Media (up 2.70%), Communication (up 2.11%), and Computer (up 1.99%) [3][4] - The sectors with the weakest performance were Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (down 0.76%) and Beauty and Personal Care (down 0.49%) [3][4] - Concept indices that performed well included Digital Currency (up 4.72%) and Ant Financial Concept (up 4.40%) [3][4] Economic Indicators - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [6] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year in May, with a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [6] - The average sales price of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in May [6] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound trend in the short term, but overall is in a healthy operating condition [7] - Mid-term prospects remain positive due to economic resilience and supportive policy measures, indicating potential upward movement in the market [7] - Recommended sectors for attention include Finance, Non-ferrous Metals, Consumer Goods, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [7]

分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资要点 粤开市场日报-20250616 今日关注 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为 0.35%，深证成指涨跌幅为 0.41%， 创业板指涨跌幅为 0.66%。 申万一级行业表现：传媒、通信、计算机在行业涨跌幅榜居前；纺织服 饰、医药生物、汽车在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 概念板块表现：总体来看，数字货币、金融科技、首板概念表现相对较 好；黄金珠宝、仿制药、化学纤维概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 策略点评 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 二、风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 3 / ...

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 转债策略研究 证券研究报告 如何构建转债评级预测模型？ 可转债主体年报业绩期结束，转债评级调整重回市场短期关注焦点。评级 调整有何规律？如何对转债评级调整做前瞻预测？ 转债信用评级动态演化分析 1）转债市场近 5 年反映出信用风险边际扩大的趋势，整体呈"易下难上" 格局。2020-2024 年，评级下调数量由 7 只增至 49 只，上调案例不到 3 例/年。2）评级调整呈现季节性集聚。3）行业结构性分化明显，社会服务、 纺织服饰等行业下调比例显著较高。4）产业链分化显著，TMT 与制造产 业链风险抬升。5）评级下调迁移路径集中，下调主体中 AA、AA-级占比 长期占据主导地位。 转债评级因子体系 在可转债信用评级的预测中，构建一个全面且科学的评级因子体系是实现 精准预测的关键基础。基于市场实践与理论分析，并结合机器学习模型的 结果，可以将转债评级因子体系分为五大类： 1）转股压力因子：大多指标均为快变量，随市场行情逐日变化，便于实 时跟踪转债转股压力动态。债券余额/正股市值、正股近期是否创年内新低 等指标与评级下调显著正相关；正股收盘价、转股价值等显著负相关。 2）偿债压力因子：构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest financing balance of the ChiNext market has reached 344.88 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 744 million yuan, indicating a positive trend in market financing activities [1]. Financing Balance Overview - The total margin balance of ChiNext stocks is 345.84 billion yuan, which has increased by 766 million yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking a continuous increase for seven consecutive trading days [1]. - The financing balance specifically stands at 344.88 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 744 million yuan, also reflecting a seven-day growth streak [1]. - The margin trading balance for short selling is 95.6 million yuan, which has increased by 21.94 million yuan [1]. Stocks with Increased Financing Balance - A total of 476 ChiNext stocks have seen an increase in financing balance, with 39 stocks experiencing a growth rate exceeding 10% [1]. - The stock with the highest increase in financing balance is Huali Group, which has a latest financing balance of 111.47 million yuan, showing a week-on-week increase of 40.21% and a daily price increase of 2.01% [1][3]. - Other notable stocks with significant financing balance increases include Zhaori Technology and Hanshuo Technology, with increases of 31.71% and 31.30% respectively [1][3]. Market Performance of Stocks - Among the stocks with a financing balance increase of over 10%, the average daily increase was 3.44%, with 30 stocks rising, including Zhongke Magnetic Materials, which hit the daily limit, and other top performers like Guangkang Biochemical and Dahongli, with increases of 18.88%, 13.64%, and 13.28% respectively [1]. - Conversely, stocks with the largest declines include Kangliyuan, Baolid, and Wanbang Pharmaceutical, with declines of 7.91%, 7.48%, and 5.93% respectively [1]. Fund Flow Analysis - On June 11, among the stocks with increased financing balances, 28 stocks saw net inflows of main funds, with Zhaori Technology, Doushen Education, and Baiyang Pharmaceutical leading with net inflows of 273 million yuan, 135 million yuan, and 84.09 million yuan respectively [2]. - Conversely, 11 stocks experienced net outflows, with Baolid, Huaye Fragrance, and Kangliyuan seeing the largest outflows of 124 million yuan, 38.35 million yuan, and 22.94 million yuan respectively [2]. Stocks with Decreased Financing Balance - A total of 457 stocks experienced a decrease in financing balance, with 10 stocks showing a decline of over 10% [4]. - The stock with the largest decrease is Duku Culture, with a latest financing balance of 75.87 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 17.21% [4][5]. - Other stocks with significant declines include Hongjing Optoelectronics and Huilong New Materials, with decreases of 15.35% and 14.85% respectively [4][5].

晨 星 月 报 01 市场洞察 宏观经济延续上月承压走势，股债表现分化 5月，国内宏观经济走势有所改善，但依旧承压。反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得 49.5%，在4月份49.0%的基础上回升0.5%，连续两个月位于收缩区间。制造业景气水平的上升 主要是受到生产指数、新订单指数、原料库存指数和从业人员指数环比上行所带来的影响。4 月份CPI同比下降0.1%，PPI同比下降2.7%。相比于3月份CPI和PPI同比分别下降0.1%和下降 2.5%而言，CPI同比涨幅持平主要是受到食品价格降幅收窄和服务价格上涨的影响；生产资料 价格和生活资料价格的降幅扩大，带动PPI同比降幅上升。 5月，中美关税冲突有所缓和，叠加央行降准降息政策的落地推动A股在上旬回暖。随着市场 对关税利好的消化，下旬，受到特朗普贸易政策不确定性的延续及4月经济数据边际偏弱的影 响，股市出现小幅回落。主要股指在5月迎来普涨，其中上证指数和深证成指分别上涨2.09% 和1.42%。代表大盘股、中盘股和小盘股的沪深300指数、中证500指数和中证1000指数分别上 涨1.85%、0.70%和1.28%。31个申万行业多数收涨，其中25个行业上涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The current large basis of stock index futures reflects market hedging demand, which depends on the existence of obvious Alpha returns. The market's focus remains on the consumer and technology sectors. The high - tech manufacturing industry in China is in a capital expenditure expansion cycle, and the consumer sector benefits from policy support. In June, these two sectors are expected to be the main focus of the market. The bond market's focus has returned to changes in the capital side. Although there were concerns about capital tightening in June, after the central bank's operations, the expectation of capital tightening has weakened, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - The stock index futures are expected to oscillate, and the bond futures are also expected to oscillate [1]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The large basis of stock index futures reflects market hedging demand, which depends on Alpha returns. Last week, the market's focus was on consumer and technology sectors. The high - tech manufacturing industry is in a capital expenditure expansion cycle, and the consumer sector benefits from policies. In May, the retail of three major white - goods maintained a high year - on - year growth rate (over 60% each), and passenger car retail remained booming (16% year - on - year). There may be a pulse in overseas demand for textile, clothing, and electronic products due to "rush - to - export" [1]. - **Bond Futures**: On June 10, 2025, the 30 - year bond futures main contract rose 0.35%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.09%, and the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts were basically stable. The central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan. Capital interest rates declined slightly. The bond market's focus has returned to the capital side. Due to large maturing pressure of inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased government bond issuance, there were concerns about capital tightening in June, but after the central bank's operations, the expectation of capital tightening has weakened, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 9, 2025, compared with June 6, 2025, IH rose 3.0 points (0.11%), IF rose 12.4 points (0.32%), IC rose 41.0 points (0.72%), and IM rose 67.6 points (1.11%) [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 2.0 points (- 0.08%), the CSI 300 Index rose 11.3 points (0.29%), the CSI 500 Index rose 43.6 points (0.76%), and the CSI 1000 Index rose 66.1 points (1.07%) [4]. - **Bond Futures**: TS remained unchanged (0.00%), TF fell 0.015 points (- 0.01%), T rose 0.075 points (0.07%), and TL rose 0.36 points (0.30%) [4]. Market News - In May 2025, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased 4.8% year - on - year (previous value: 8.1%), and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.2%) [5]. - In May 2025, the national consumer price index decreased 0.1% year - on - year. From January to May, the average national consumer price index decreased 0.1% compared with the same period last year [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their respective basis trends [7][8][11]. - **Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of bond futures main contracts, bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward US dollar against the RMB for 1M and 3M, forward euro against the RMB for 1M and 3M, US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [21][22][25].