中国稀土所属申万行业为：有色金属-小金属-稀土。所属概念板块包括：国资改革、中盘、稀土永磁、 融资融券、MSCI中国等。 截至12月19日，中国稀土股东户数22.90万，较上期减少3.74%；人均流通股4634股，较上期增加 3.89%。2025年1月-9月，中国稀土实现营业收入24.94亿元，同比增长27.73%；归母净利润1.92亿元，同 比增长194.67%。 分红方面，中国稀土A股上市后累计派现3.46亿元。近三年，累计派现1.24亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，中国稀土十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股2906.94万股，相比上期增加946.69万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第五大流通股 东，持股1079.60万股，相比上期减少27.03万股。嘉实中证稀土产业ETF（516150）位居第六大流通股 东，持股799.75万股，为新进股东。南方中证申万有色金属ETF发起联接A（004432）位居第八大流通 股东，持股603.53万股，为新进股东。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入692.37万元，特大单买入492.52万元，占比3.50%，卖出33 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shenghe Resources has shown a modest increase of 2.04% as of January 5, 2023, with significant trading activity and a total market capitalization of 38.51 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 5, 2023, Shenghe Resources' stock price is 21.97 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 447 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.17% [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock has increased by 2.04%, with a 5-day increase of 2.28%, a 20-day increase of 6.96%, and a 60-day decrease of 12.71% [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shenghe Resources reported a revenue of 10.456 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 788 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 748.07% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of December 20, 2025, the number of shareholders of Shenghe Resources is 210,400, a decrease of 6.11% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person has increased by 6.50% to 8,329 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.039 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 561 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, with notable changes in their holdings [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - Geopolitical fluctuations are driving safe-haven demand, with a focus on upcoming economic data and adjustments to the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Short-term gold and silver may experience wide fluctuations, but it is recommended to increase equity allocation during corrections. The recent increase in metal futures margin requirements by the CME has led to significant price volatility in gold and silver, with short-term forced liquidation sentiment easing. The outlook for Q1 2026 suggests that the inflation and liquidity resonance window remains unchanged, with silver leading the continued upward trend in precious metals [3][4][5] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are creating a demand for safe-haven assets, while upcoming economic data and the Bloomberg Commodity Index adjustments are being monitored. Short-term fluctuations in gold and silver prices are expected, but equity allocation should be increased during corrections. The recent margin hikes by the CME have caused significant price volatility, and the forced liquidation sentiment has eased. The inflation and liquidity resonance window is expected to remain unchanged through Q1 2026, with silver leading the upward trend in precious metals [3][4] Industrial Metals - The overall performance of industrial metals remains strong, driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts and copper accumulation in the U.S. Recent data shows a week-on-week increase in copper inventory by 5.73% and a year-on-year increase of 86.11%. Aluminum inventory also saw a week-on-week increase of 2.93% and a year-on-year increase of 1.96%. The core logic for the strength in copper and aluminum prices is linked to interest rate cut expectations and U.S. copper accumulation [4][5] Energy and Minor Metals - Lithium is expected to see a supply inflection point and a new demand cycle. The price of lithium carbonate futures has surpassed 120,000 yuan/ton, reaching a new high. The recovery in rare earth demand is anticipated to initiate a new upward trend, with significant improvements in the performance of rare earth companies. Tungsten prices are also on the rise, with a long-term bullish outlook. The cobalt market is expected to face shortages from 2025 to 2027, with prices likely to rise due to supply constraints [5][6]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, leading to long-term uncertainty that supports gold prices. Recent military actions by the US against Venezuela have heightened risk aversion, impacting the precious metals market [1][50] - The macroeconomic environment remains accommodative with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is likely to benefit gold and silver prices in the long run [3][22] - The supply-demand dynamics for silver are strong, with significant inflows into ETFs and tight global inventories, suggesting a bullish outlook for silver prices [6][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold fell 4.82% to $4,341.90 per ounce, while silver dropped 9.30% to $72.27 per ounce. SHFE gold decreased 3.81% to ¥977.56 per gram, and silver fell 6.80% to ¥17,074.00 per kilogram [1][34] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 4.93% to 60.08, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 193,093.29 ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 1,722,502.60 ounces, reflecting changing investor sentiment [1][34] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper rose 2.70% to $12,460.50 per ton, aluminum increased 2.18% to $3,021.00 per ton, and zinc went up 1.31% to $3,127.00 per ton. SHFE copper fell 0.49% to ¥98,240.00 per ton, while aluminum and zinc saw increases [7][12] - The macroeconomic sentiment is positive, with expectations of increased fiscal spending in China to stimulate consumption and stabilize employment, which supports copper prices [8][12] - Supply-side risks are evident, with major mining companies reducing copper production forecasts due to operational challenges, which may tighten supply further [9][12] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at ¥17,210 per ton, with demand primarily driven by essential purchases amid a seasonal slowdown [19] - Molybdenum prices have increased due to strong demand from the steel sector, while vanadium prices are under pressure despite some positive signals from the storage sector [20][24]

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|有色金属 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 金属及金属新材料行业周报 降息预期交易继续 [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-04 [分析师： Table_Author]宫帅 SAC 执证号：S0260518070003 SFC CE No. BOB672 010-59136660 gongshuai@gf.com.cn 分析师： 王乐 SAC 执证号：S0260523050004 021-38003617 wangle@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈琪玮 SAC 执证号：S0260524040003 SFC CE No. BTE650 021-38003631 chenqiwei@gf.com.cn 请注意，王乐并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 -4% 16% 35% 55% 74% 94% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 有色金属 沪深300 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 工业金属与钢铁：内需预期有望改善，工业金属价格或高位运行。铜 铝：25 年 12 月 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "stronger than the market" rating [6] Core Views - Precious metals prices have retreated due to increased margin requirements and a stronger US dollar, which has suppressed speculative demand [2][14] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are expected to see price increases supported by government subsidies for old-for-new exchanges, despite current high prices [3][15] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels due to slowed inventory depletion and moderate demand recovery [4][21] - Rare earth prices are generally strong, while tungsten prices have decreased by 1.1% [4][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are limited by a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields, with margin requirements for futures contracts being raised to cool speculative activity [2][14] - Key stocks to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Lingnan, and others in both A-shares and H-shares [2][14] Industrial Metals - The continuation of old-for-new subsidies is expected to stimulate demand for copper and aluminum, with copper prices anticipated to rise despite current high levels [3][15] - Key stocks include Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others [3][15] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain high due to supply uncertainties and moderate demand recovery, with strategic investment opportunities in lithium stocks [4][21] - Key stocks include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianhua, and others [4][22] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are generally strong, with specific increases in praseodymium and neodymium prices, while tungsten has seen a slight decline [4][23] - Key stocks to monitor include Hunan Gold, China Rare Earth, and others [4][26] Weekly Market Review - The non-ferrous index increased by 0.4%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with lithium battery materials showing the largest gains [27][28] - Top gainers include Jiangxi Copper and Yinbang [37]

证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2026 01 01 年 月 日 有色金属 2026 年度策略：物少天成贵，势来价自高 贵金属：白银王者归来，黄金仍将闪耀。2026 年美联储仍有降息必要性，货 币政策基准情形将维持适度宽松。黄金方面，全球央行增持黄金热度不减；黄 金 ETF 往往在降息周期中持续流入。ETF 与央行共振下黄金牛市有望延续。 白银方面，2025 年白银 ETF 持仓显著提升，金融属性主导银价上涨。我们认 为，市场高估了工业需求的影响，而低估了金融属性所带来的投资需求拉动。 同时，尽管 2025 年银价涨幅超过黄金，但目前金银比仍然显示银价相对金价 低估。银价在 2025 年大幅上涨后，金银比依然位于 70 以上的历史偏高水平。 历史上看，金银比多数时间运行在 40-80 区间，目前金银比仍显示银价相对于 金价处于低估状态。 铜：供需缺口明确，铜价上行斜率提升。①宏观面：2026 年中美关键年份再 度重合，"关税退坡+财货双松"支撑铜价牛市加速。②供给端：供给矛盾在 2026 年依然存在，CAPEX 回升需要更高铜价激励。我们认为供给扰动的集中 发生也并非简单的"黑天鹅"事件 ...

证券之星消息，12月31日小金属板块较上一交易日上涨0.71%，宝钛股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3968.84，上涨0.09%。深证成指报收于13525.02，下跌0.58%。小金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600456 | 宝钛股份 | 39.45 | 6.25% | 49.56万 | 19.43亿 | | 000962 | 东方银√ | 33.06 | 5.86% | 29.47万 | 9.61亿 | | 002149 | 西部材料 | 45.51 | 5.84% | 116.87万 | 52.86 Z | | 002428 | 云南省业 | 31.75 | 5.52% | 51.14万 | 16.03亿 | | 920068 | 天工股份 | 19.50 | 3.17% | 7.16万 | 1.39 Z | | 688750 | 金天钛业 | 19.97 | 2.41% | 7.85万 | 1.55亿 | | 601958 | 金铝股份 | 1 ...

保证金突然上调！交易成本暴涨逼退投机资金 要说这波暴跌的"导火索"，非芝商所的新规莫属。12月29日，芝加哥商品交易所突然宣布，全线上调黄金、白银、铂金等金属期货的交易保证金，其中白银 期货上调幅度高达13.6%，黄金上调10%，铂金更是涨了23% 。可能有人听不懂"保证金上调"啥意思，说白了就是交易所觉得市场波动太疯狂，要提高交易 门槛——以前花100块能做的交易，现在得花113块，这直接让不少靠杠杆操作的投机资金扛不住了。 要知道，2025年以来白银价格已经涨了近150%，黄金也涨了70%，很多人都是抱着"赚快钱"的心态冲进来的。保证金一上调，这些高杠杆资金要么得追加 现金，要么只能被迫平仓离场，大量抛售直接引发了连锁反应，金银价格跟着直线往下掉。市场人士都说，这是交易所对当前贵金属市场异常波动的"降温 措施"，就是为了抑制过度投机 。 降息预期凉了！美联储鹰派言论压垮金银 深夜惊魂！贵金属狂泻美股小金属崩盘，3大杀招引爆市场 年底的金融市场就像坐过山车，前半夜还在为黄金白银的暴涨欢呼，后半夜就被一盆冷水浇透。深夜里，不少盯着K线图的投资者眼睁睁看着屏幕一片绿油 油，手里的咖啡瞬间不香了——那些被长辈当成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The small metals sector experienced a slight decline of 0.2% on December 30, with Haotong Technology leading the losses, while the Shanghai Composite Index remained stable with a negligible change of 0.0% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12, showing no change, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 [1]. - The small metals sector's individual stock performance varied, with notable gainers including Zhongkuang Resources, which increased by 2.66% to a closing price of 79.24, and Huaxi Nonferrous, which rose by 0.95% to 38.30 [1]. Group 2: Trading Volume and Value - Zhongkuang Resources had a trading volume of 248,800 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 1.946 billion yuan [1]. - The overall trading volume and value for the small metals sector indicated significant activity, with various stocks contributing to the total market dynamics [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The small metals sector saw a net outflow of 1.937 billion yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2.457 billion yuan [2]. - The capital flow data highlighted that while major and speculative funds withdrew, retail investors were actively buying into the sector [2][3].