广发证券指出，原奶价格变动是影响奶牛公平值变动的重要因素，当奶价上行时，奶牛公平值向上 调整，增加奶牛养殖公司表观业绩弹性。当前产能去化有望加速，原奶周期拐点将近。此外，随着前期 肉牛产能去化效应显现，肉牛价格周期回升，亦或增加奶牛养殖公司业绩弹性。在国际财报准则 下，"生物资产公平值减销售成本变动产生的损益"科目涵盖淘汰牛损失、成母牛折旧、奶牛公平值变 动，这些因素共同影响牧业公司表观业绩。 养殖ETF（159865）跟踪的是中证畜牧指数（930707），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及畜禽养殖、 饲料生产及兽药制造等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映畜牧养殖产业链相关上市公司证券的 整体表现。成分股覆盖了畜牧业上下游的主要企业，具有较强的行业代表性。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF联接A（012724），国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF联 接C（012725）。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： n ...

农产品日报 | 2025-08-12 供应仍显宽松，猪价震荡调整 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场分析 综合来看，预计未来生猪的供应会继续增加，现货价格预计将会继续承压。消费端的改善存在不确定性，受到现 货供应增加影响导致近期价格快速下跌，市场解读生猪库存去化明显，对远期合约的预期有所改善。但从能繁的 去化程度来看现阶段生猪产能整体的去化并不明显，未来仍需持续关注。 策略 中性 风险 无 鸡蛋观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14140元/吨，较前交易日变动-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.28%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.66元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+-480，较前交易日变动+70；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.87元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.12元/公斤，现货基差LH09+-270，较前交易日变动-10；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.34元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09-800，较前交易日变动+140。 据农业农村部监测，8月11日"农产品批发价格200指数"为114.15，比上周五上升0.21个 ...

Group 1: Company Announcements - Puyuan Precision plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - Wanxing Technology intends to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [11] - Liou Co. plans to use no more than 3 billion yuan of its own funds for securities investment [13] - Guangdong Hongda's subsidiary intends to acquire 60% equity of Changzhilin for 1.02 billion yuan [12] Group 2: Financial Performance and Investments - GSK Gas plans to use 350 million yuan of raised funds for the Wuhan GSK Semiconductor Electronic Gas Station project, with a total investment of 503 million yuan [3] - Lianyungang's wholly-owned subsidiary plans to invest 548.8 million yuan in shipbuilding [2] - Hongjing Optoelectronics plans to invest 1.533 billion yuan in the construction of its R&D and manufacturing headquarters [9] Group 3: Regulatory Issues - Jihua Group is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected information disclosure violations [7] - *ST Gaohong may face forced delisting due to major violations related to fraudulent issuance of shares and false records in annual reports from 2015 to 2023 [8] Group 4: Sales Performance - Jingji Zhinnong reported sales of 3.51 billion yuan from selling 203,600 pigs in July, with a cumulative sales revenue of 2.243 billion yuan from January to July [8] - Zhengbang Technology reported sales of 7.41 billion yuan from selling 695,200 pigs in July, with a cumulative sales revenue of 4.818 billion yuan from January to July, showing significant year-on-year growth [10] Group 5: Share Transfers - Anzheng Fashion's shareholder plans to transfer 5.35% of the company's shares at a price of 6.78 yuan per share, totaling 141 million yuan [5] - Bidetech's actual controller and associates plan to transfer 29.9% of the company's shares to Dinglong Qishun for 897 million yuan [6]

作为广西东融先行示范区，贺州市近年来主动对接、深度融入粤港澳大湾区发展大局。当地实体产业锚 定可持续发展方向蓄力前行，通过持续强化自主研发与创新能力，稳步拓展国内外市场，为区域经济提 质增效注入强劲动能。 正是看中贺州市的区位优势，广西桂鑫钢铁集团有限公司于2002年在贺州落地。该公司党委书记、总经 理助理陈根介绍，2024年，该企业的钢材产量达161万吨，其钢材产品有95%销往广东。 中新网贺州8月8日电题：广西贺州借势大湾区以产业创新激活区域发展 走进广西贺州市京基智农时代有限公司位于该市平桂区的养殖场，映入眼帘的不是传统猪舍，而是数栋 配备智能化系统的现代化多层养殖楼。在这里，生猪过上了"现代化"生活，实现了"立体安居"。 贺州市毗邻粤港澳大湾区，每年约有七成蔬菜、五成生猪等供应大湾区市场。目前，贺州市正着力推动 生猪养殖产业，加快生猪屠宰加工全产业链项目发展。上半年，贺州市平桂区生猪出栏量达27.11万 头，同比增长6.2%。 贺州市京基智农时代有限公司总经理助理黄勇威介绍，公司为猪舍配备智能化养殖管理系统，可自动喂 料、自动除臭等。对比传统生猪养殖，该模式的生产效率大大提高，平均一个工作人员可饲养生 ...

Sales Performance - In July 2025, the company sold a total of 79,400 pigs, which includes 48,400 commercial pigs, 30,100 piglets, and 800 breeding pigs [1] - The sales revenue from pig sales amounted to 96.73 million yuan, with an average selling price of 14.98 yuan per kilogram for commercial pigs [1] Data Disclosure - The sales data provided does not include figures from the company's affiliated companies and is unaudited, indicating potential discrepancies with regular report disclosures [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the livestock industry in China, with the China Livestock Breeding Index rising by 0.80% and key stocks such as Shengnong Development and Yisheng Shares showing significant gains [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a meeting focused on the high-quality development of the pig industry, emphasizing the need to reduce production capacity, control operations, and lower weights, indicating a shift towards substantial capacity regulation [1] - According to招商证券, there is considerable room for efficiency optimization in China's pig farming industry compared to overseas counterparts, suggesting that leading companies may drive value extraction efforts over the coming years [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 64.83% of the index, with notable companies including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Haida Group [2] - The Livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Breeding Index, which includes listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of related companies [1]

神农集团（SH 605296，收盘价：31.8元）8月4日晚间发布公告称，截至2025年7月31日，公司本次回购 已累计回购股份约658万股，占公司当前总股本的比例为1.25%，已支付的总金额约为1.8亿元。 2024年1至12月份，神农集团的营业收入构成为：畜牧养殖占比68.02%，生猪屠宰占比26.38%，饲料加 工占比5.24%，其他业务占比0.31%，其他占比0.06%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The pricing mechanism is determined by the long-term contract system, where the sales price for the next month is based on the last price index of the current month[10] 2. The model incorporates year-over-year changes in price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but it relies heavily on the accuracy of price and capacity factor inputs[10][14] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the supply-demand gap for hogs six months in advance based on the relationship between sow inventory and hog slaughter rates[15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assumes a stable proportional relationship between quarterly hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months[15] 2. The formula for the slaughter coefficient is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[15] 3. The potential supply and demand six months later are calculated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6)} $ $ \text{Potential Demand (t+6)} = \text{Hog Slaughter (t+6, Previous Year)} $[16] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this model effectively identifies hog price upcycles, making it a valuable tool for forecasting[16] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[18] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model uses comprehensive steel prices and considers the costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[18] 2. Monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability are calculated based on these inputs[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures the dynamics of the steel industry effectively, but its accuracy depends on the reliability of input data[23] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and designs allocation signals based on these changes[25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability trends in the glass and cement industries[25] 2. It incorporates economic data such as manufacturing PMI and real estate sales to analyze potential infrastructure investment expectations[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of industry profitability and its drivers, but it is sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations[29] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth rates and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices and crude oil prices[30] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model calculates profit growth rates and cracking spreads using changes in fuel and crude oil prices[30] 2. Allocation signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the profitability dynamics of the refining industry, but its performance is influenced by oil price volatility[37] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The coal industry index achieved a cumulative excess return of 0.3% in July 2025[10] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The model predicts a potential supply of 18,249,000 hogs and a demand of 18,226,000 hogs for Q4 2025, indicating a roughly balanced market[17] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The model predicts positive year-over-year profit growth for July 2025, with improved per-ton profitability[23] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: The model indicates that glass industry gross profit remains in a year-over-year decline, but the rate of decline has narrowed[29] - **Cement Industry**: The model predicts a slight year-over-year profit growth for the cement industry in July 2025[29] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Profit Growth**: The model predicts slight year-over-year profit growth for the refining industry in July 2025[33] - **Oilfield Services**: The model observes that oil prices in July 2025 are lower than the previous year, with no significant change in new drilling activity[38]

畜牧ETF紧密跟踪中证畜牧养殖指数，中证畜牧养殖指数选取涉及畜禽饲料、畜禽药物以及畜禽养殖等 业务的上市公司证券作为样本，以反映畜牧养殖相关上市公司的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)前十大权重股分别为牧原股份(002714)、温 氏股份(300498)、海大集团(002311)、梅花生物(600873)、新希望(000876)、大北农(002385)、生物股份 (600201)、圣农发展(002299)、唐人神(002567)、天康生物(002100)，前十大权重股合计占比65.27%。 截至2025年7月31日 15:00，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)成分股方面涨跌互现，天马科技(603668)领涨 0.91%，生物股份(600201)上涨0.59%，美农生物(301156)上涨0.56%；金河生物(002688)领跌。畜牧 ETF(159867)最新报价0.63元。 国金农业团队指出，本周生猪均价14.15元/Kg，环比-0.84%；出栏均重128.48Kg，环比-0.35Kg。会议后 行业龙头依旧积极降重，散户看好8月价格持续压栏，目前看月初月末价格反 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a slight recovery in the breeding capacity of sows in the second quarter, with a total stock of 40.43 million heads by the end of June, reflecting a 0.1% increase compared to the previous month, nearing the levels expected by the end of Q2 2024 [1] - In terms of pig supply, the total output expected by Q2 2025 is 171.43 million heads, which is a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with an average meat yield per head of 82.72 kg, up by 0.46 kg from the previous period [1] - The average price of commercial pigs dropped to 14.57 yuan/kg in June, a decrease of 20.6% year-on-year, while the price of piglets fell by 14.5% year-on-year, leading to a narrowing of average profits for large-scale farms to 7 yuan per head, with smallholders facing a loss of 6 yuan per head [1] Group 2 - The breeding ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock feed, breeding, vaccines, and veterinary drugs to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - The index comprehensively covers the upstream and downstream industries of livestock, effectively representing the overall development status of the sector [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai China Securities Livestock Breeding ETF Connect A (012724) and Connect C (012725) [1]