Group 1 - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a market-wide pullback, with the only agricultural ETF (159275) closing down by 0.7% [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including animal health, broiler farming, and agricultural product processing, saw significant declines, with Bio-Stock dropping by 4.06% and several others falling over 2% [3] - The overall trend in pig prices remains downward, with current prices for fat pigs nearing 11 yuan/kg and weaned piglets dropping to around 150 yuan/head, indicating a phase of comprehensive losses in the industry [3] Group 2 - The agricultural sector's valuation is currently at a relatively low level, suggesting a good time for investment, with the agricultural ETF's index price-to-book ratio at 2.57, positioned at the 30.08 percentile over the past decade [3] - Guosen Securities is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle by 2025, highlighting the potential for domestic beef and raw milk markets to rise [4] - The industry is expected to undergo a quality improvement and efficiency enhancement trend, with outdated capacities gradually being eliminated, leading to an increase in market share for financially stable producers [4] Group 3 - The agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, with major holdings including leading companies in the sector, and approximately 40% exposure to pig-related stocks [5] - The index covers a wide range of industries within the agricultural sector, providing a comprehensive opportunity to capture the recovery of the entire agricultural value chain [5] - The ETF is the first and only one tracking the CSI Agricultural Index, which was established on December 31, 2004, and published on December 12, 2016 [8]

养殖ETF（159865）跟踪的是中证畜牧指数（930707），该指数从沪深市场中选取业务涉及畜禽养殖、 饲料加工等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映畜牧业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。中证畜牧 指数覆盖了畜禽养殖、饲料及动保等多个细分领域，具有较强的行业代表性。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 据Wind数据，养殖ETF（159865）盘中流入6.94亿份，净流入5.34亿份，资金抢筹养殖资产。 中邮证券表示，"反内卷"多次加码，利好明年猪价。自5月份以来，生猪行业"反内卷"持续加码，农业 部、发改委、行业协会等多方多次召开会议，围绕"控产能、降体重、限二育"精准发力。随着政策执行 力度的进一步加大，叠加近期猪价已进入亏损区间，预计四季度行业产能去化将有所加速，明年下半年 猪价有望迎来新一轮上行趋势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector showed strong performance on October 10, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) experiencing a price increase after a low opening, indicating positive market sentiment in this sector [1][5]. Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) opened lower but quickly rebounded, achieving a maximum intraday increase of 1.5% and closing up 0.3% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Guannong Co. (up 6.89%) and Shengwu Co. (up 4.52%), led the gains, with several others also showing increases of over 3% [1][5]. Price Trends - National average pig prices fell to 12.55 CNY/kg as of October 7, a decrease of 1.6% compared to the pre-holiday period, following a 10% drop in September [2][3]. - The decline in pig prices has resulted in significant losses for farmers, with losses of 54 CNY per pig for self-bred pigs and 128 CNY for purchased piglets [2][3]. Policy and Industry Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with the Ministry of Agriculture, has signaled a clear policy direction towards reducing production capacity in the pig industry, which is expected to enhance market dynamics [3][4]. - The current low valuation of the agricultural sector, with the agricultural ETF's price-to-book ratio at 2.61, suggests a favorable time for investment [3][4]. Future Expectations - Analysts predict that the ongoing measures to counteract overproduction in the pig industry will lead to a gradual increase in pig prices in the medium to long term [4][5]. - The focus on improving quality and efficiency in the pig industry, along with the elimination of outdated production capacity, is expected to benefit financially stable producers [4][5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing decline in pork prices, with the average price of live pigs at 12.64 CNY/kg, down 3.05% week-on-week, indicating a supply surplus in the market. However, upcoming festivals are expected to boost consumption and potentially stabilize prices [2][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of improving grain yield through advanced agricultural practices and technology, particularly in the context of food security and the promotion of genetically modified crops [1][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on enhancing grain yields through a comprehensive approach tailored to specific crops and regions. This includes promoting high-performance agricultural machinery and addressing storage issues in different regions [1][12] - Companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development are expected to benefit from these initiatives, along with seed companies such as Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Swine Farming - The current average price of live pigs is 12.64 CNY/kg, reflecting a significant decrease due to oversupply. A meeting was held to discuss reducing the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million to stabilize prices [2][13] - The report suggests that the swine industry will focus on quality improvement and efficiency, with a gradual elimination of outdated production capacity. Companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs are highlighted as key players to watch [2][5][13] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2360.47 CNY/ton, down 0.10% week-on-week [26] - Wheat: The average price is 2434.39 CNY/ton, up 0.23% week-on-week [29] - Soybeans: The average price is 4050.42 CNY/ton, up 0.17% week-on-week [38] - Cotton: The average price is 15090.00 CNY/ton, down 0.89% week-on-week [46] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.68 CNY/kg, with no change week-on-week. Vitamin E prices have decreased by 7.84% to 51.70 CNY/kg [52][63]

Core Insights - The livestock sector is experiencing significant capital inflow, with the Livestock ETF (159865) seeing nearly 1 billion yuan in net inflow over the past 10 days, with approximately 60% exposure to pig farming [1] - The average price of live pigs in China has decreased to 12.79 yuan/kg, down 3.55% week-on-week, indicating a continued downward trend in pig prices due to oversupply in the market [1] - A meeting held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on September 16 emphasized the need to reduce the breeding sow population by about 1 million heads, aiming to lower the total to approximately 39.5 million heads [1] - Recent measures to curb overproduction in the pig industry are expected to raise the price center of domestic pigs in the medium to long term, with a focus on improving quality and efficiency in the industry [1] - The livestock sector may be entering a favorable allocation phase, with attention on the marginal changes in the Livestock ETF (159865) [1] Investment Opportunities - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF Connect A (012724) and Connect C (012725) as potential investment options [2] - The "pig content" in the Livestock ETF is approximately 60%, indicating the weight of stocks related to pig farming, feed, and animal health within the index [2]

Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The Ministry of Commerce has announced preliminary findings of anti-dumping investigations on imported pork and related products from the EU, confirming dumping and substantial damage to the domestic industry [1] - Temporary anti-dumping measures will be implemented in the form of a deposit starting from September 10, 2025, requiring importers to provide corresponding deposit rates to customs [1] - In the first seven months of 2025, China imported 1.39 million tons of pork and related products, with nearly 50% coming from the EU, indicating a significant reliance on EU imports [1] Group 2: Market Prices and Trends - The market price of live pigs has dropped to 13.87 yuan/kg as of September 8, 2025, down from 14.22 yuan/kg at the end of July 2025 and 15.98 yuan/kg at the end of 2024 [2] - Pork wholesale prices have also decreased, with a recent price of 20.10 yuan/kg, compared to 20.50 yuan/kg at the end of July 2025 and 22.37 yuan/kg at the end of 2024 [2] - Major listed pig farming companies reported increased sales volumes in August 2025, but both price and profit margins have declined [2] Group 3: Production Capacity and Industry Adjustments - The number of breeding sows has slightly decreased by 0.80% in August 2025, indicating a potential adjustment in production capacity [3] - The Ministry of Agriculture has been promoting measures to stabilize the pig industry, including controlling breeding sow numbers and reducing overall supply [3] - Analysts suggest that the anti-dumping measures may lead to a reduction in imported pork supply, potentially driving domestic pork prices higher [3][4] Group 4: Company Performance - De Kang Agriculture reported sales of 813,100 pigs in August 2025, with a revenue of 1.432 billion yuan, but the average selling price decreased by 3.31% from July 2025 [5] - COFCO Joycome turned a profit in the first half of 2025 but faced pressure on profit margins due to declining pig prices, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts [6] - WH Group reported a 10.4% increase in operating profit for the first half of 2025, with a sales growth of 8.9%, marking the best performance since the second half of 2020 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing measures to prevent "involution" in the pig farming industry, focusing on capacity control, weight reduction, and limiting secondary fattening to promote high-quality development in the sector [1][5]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has proposed a framework to reduce the national breeding sow population by 1 million to 39.5 million, slightly above the basic capacity [2]. - Policies include optimizing pig production, increasing the elimination of weak piglets, and lowering the weight requirement for state reserves to 115 kg [2]. - The Ministry will enhance monitoring and require local authorities to report on breeding sows, inventory, average weight, and secondary fattening monthly [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The pig farming industry is experiencing a shift towards increased concentration, with the scale of pig farming rising from 53% in 2021 to 69% in 2024 [5]. - The top ten listed pig farming companies accounted for 23.7% of the slaughter volume in the first half of 2025, indicating a further increase in industry concentration [5]. - Major companies like Muyuan and Wen's have reduced their breeding sow inventory, with Muyuan's inventory decreasing by 54,000 heads to 3.43 million [5]. Group 3: Weight Reduction - The average slaughter weight of pigs in June was 90.3 kg, down 0.58% month-on-month and 2.11% year-on-year, reflecting a clear trend towards weight reduction [6]. - Major companies reported varying average weights, with Muyuan at 108.64 kg, Wen's at 113.69 kg, and New Hope at 99.21 kg, showing a significant decline in average weights across the industry [6]. Group 4: Secondary Fattening Practices - The practice of secondary fattening, where farmers purchase pigs at normal slaughter weight and further fatten them, has become common post-African swine fever, disrupting price stability [7]. - Environmental policies are expected to promote the upgrade or elimination of outdated production capacities, which will help stabilize the industry and curb secondary fattening practices [7].

Core Viewpoint - Since early June, live pig futures prices have shown a trend of fluctuating upward, but recently have experienced a pullback due to overall macro sentiment. As of July 30, the main contract for live pig futures closed at 14,075 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton or 4.5% from the closing price of 13,475 yuan/ton on June 9 [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The live pig spot price has continued to decline since August 2024 due to excess production capacity. As of June 2025, the number of breeding sows in China was 40.43 million, showing a negligible decline of less than 1% from the peak at the end of 2024 [1]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has implemented a series of regulatory measures since June, including suspending the expansion of breeding sows and regulating secondary fattening. Following these measures, leading breeding companies quickly responded, leading to a rebound in live pig spot prices from their lows [1]. - As of July 3, the average daily price of live pigs in the mainstream market was 15.5 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.56 yuan/kg or 11% from the low point in early June [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Despite the rebound in prices, supply-side pressures have not been effectively alleviated, and the current period is characterized by weak demand. The price of live pigs has shown a pullback after reaching a high in July [2][3]. - The recent "anti-involution" measures in the pig industry are expected to effectively eliminate outdated production capacity and control the weight of market pigs, which may lead to a decrease in live pig inventory [2]. - The average daily slaughter volume has decreased by 7.93% compared to June, making it difficult to absorb the output, and the spot price in Henan has dropped from 15.5 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to 14 yuan/kg [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to gradually take effect, potentially reducing the number of breeding sows to 39.5 million. This is likely to provide bottom support for long-term contracts [4]. - The increasing proportion of large-scale breeding enterprises is expected to smooth out the volatility of pig prices, reducing the impact of significant fluctuations in production capacity on prices [4]. - In 2024, the number of breeding sows among major listed companies is projected to increase by 6.12%, and the annual output of the top 10 listed pig companies is expected to reach 142.75 million heads, an increase of 10.56% compared to 2023 [4].