中央政治局日前召开会议强调，要有效释放内需潜力。近日召开的国务院第九次全体会议提出，持续激 发消费潜力，加力扩大有效投资，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，不断释放超大规模市场红利。 今年以来，面对外部环境变化，我国把发展的立足点更多放在扩大内需、做强国内大循环上，一系列政 策举措有效激发了内需潜力。专家认为，下半年扩内需等政策效果将继续显现，为经济平稳健康发展提 供支撑。 更加注重补上消费短板 今年上半年，内需对GDP增长的贡献率达到68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%，继续发挥增长主 动力作用。 加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新政策，有效激发了消费活力。今年第三批690亿元支持消费品以旧换新的 超长期特别国债资金已下达完毕。在以旧换新政策带动下，7月份，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材 类、文化办公用品类、家具类和通讯器材类商品零售额同比分别增长28.7%、13.8%、20.6%、14.9%， 均明显快于商品零售额增速。 中央政治局会议提出，"在扩大商品消费的同时，培育服务消费新的增长点""在保障改善民生中扩大消 费需求"。中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，这预示着促消费的重点将会转向服务消费以及改善民 生方面， ...

Group 1 - The State Council's ninth plenary session emphasizes strengthening domestic circulation by removing restrictive measures in the consumption sector to stimulate consumer potential and promote high-quality economic development [1][2] - Systematic removal of restrictions will empower consumers with more autonomy, enhance their quality of life, and stimulate demand [1][3] - Optimizing policies in the automotive sector is crucial as it is a pillar industry that supports various supply chain segments, leading to overall industry development and transformation [1][2] Group 2 - Adjusting real estate market policies is essential to release potential demand for improved housing, which is interconnected with multiple industries such as construction and furniture [2][3] - Accelerating the growth of service consumption and new consumption models, such as online education and shared economy, is necessary to meet the evolving needs of consumers [2][4] - The execution of removing consumption restrictions should follow a scientific and orderly approach, avoiding a one-size-fits-all strategy while optimizing the business environment [3][4] Group 3 - In the automotive sector, transitioning from purchase management to usage management can alleviate traffic pressure and meet consumer needs more effectively [3][4] - The real estate sector requires a comprehensive cancellation of purchase, sale, and price restrictions to promote healthy market development [3][4] - In the service consumption area, breaking down invisible market entry barriers and enhancing the supply of high-quality services can create job opportunities and drive economic growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - A series of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption have shown effectiveness this year, leading to stable growth in China's consumption market and highlighting the role of consumption as a key driver of economic growth [1] Group 1: Consumption Policies and Impact - The "trade-in" policy for consumer goods has significantly boosted sales, with related sales exceeding 1.9 trillion yuan (approximately 265 billion USD) and benefiting over 320 million people by August 14, 2023 [1] - The automotive sector saw over 7.3 million vehicles traded in, while home appliances experienced over 110 million units traded in, and digital products like smartphones had over 7.89 million units purchased [1] - High-efficiency appliances are experiencing rapid sales growth, indicating a shift towards higher quality and energy-efficient products [1] Group 2: Service Consumption Trends - There has been a continuous release of demand for service consumption, particularly during the summer travel season, with many people traveling for events [1] - Cultural venues have extended their hours, and new experiences like "Museum Night" have emerged, contributing to a vibrant cultural consumption landscape [1] - In the first seven months of the year, retail sales in tourism, leisure, and related services have shown double-digit growth [1] Group 3: Online Consumption Growth - Online retail has gained momentum, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% in the first seven months, marking a new high for the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the sluggish recovery of consumer spending in China, indicating that while there is potential for growth, consumer confidence and willingness to spend remain low due to various underlying issues [2][4]. Group 1: Consumer Data Analysis - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7% but a month-on-month decline of 0.14% [3]. - The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles amounted to 34,931 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.3% [3]. - From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 284,238 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.8% [4]. Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Willingness - The consumer confidence index was reported at 88.03 in June 2025, indicating a weak state compared to the historical average of 124.6 in 2019 [5]. - The increase in household savings, with a balance of over 160 trillion yuan, suggests that while consumers have the capacity to spend, they prefer saving due to uncertainties about the future [4][5]. - Factors such as inadequate social security, high living costs, and barriers to consumption (e.g., housing and vehicle purchase restrictions) contribute to the lack of consumer willingness [5][6]. Group 3: Unlocking Consumption Potential - China has a significant consumption potential, with 75% of it yet to be realized, necessitating reforms to enhance the ability, willingness, and ease of consumption [6][7]. - To improve the "ability to consume," reforms in income distribution and labor compensation are essential, alongside addressing wage arrears for migrant workers [7][8]. - Enhancing consumer confidence requires stable social security measures and government policies to reduce precautionary savings and encourage spending [8]. Group 4: Addressing Consumption Barriers - The article emphasizes the need to eliminate restrictive policies on purchasing homes and vehicles to unlock potential consumer demand [8]. - Improving product quality and service standards is crucial for meeting the unmet needs of middle and high-income consumers [8]. - Strengthening consumer rights protection and enhancing the legal framework to address issues like price transparency and counterfeit goods are necessary for fostering a secure consumption environment [8].

Consumption Overview - As of 2023, China's final consumption expenditure accounts for approximately 56.8% of nominal GDP, significantly lower than developed economies like Japan and the US, which range from 65% to 81%[1][9]. - The contribution of government consumption to GDP in China is relatively close to developed countries, recorded at 17.2% in 2023, higher than the US at 13.4%[1][9]. Service Consumption Insights - Service consumption in China constitutes about 52-53% of total household expenditure, which is lower than the 56%-69% seen in the US, Japan, and South Korea[2][17]. - The value added by the accommodation and catering industry in China is only 1.8% of GDP, compared to 3.3% in the US and 2% in Japan[2][18]. Demand-Side Factors - To boost total demand, increasing disposable income and consumer expectations is crucial; the growth of disposable income is closely tied to nominal GDP growth[2][39]. - Short-term subsidies, such as those for food delivery services, are expected to have a significant impact, with estimates suggesting over 10 billion yuan in subsidies could increase daily orders by 30-40%[2][47]. Supply-Side Considerations - There is substantial room for investment in service-related sectors, with China's per capita railway kilometers at only 20% of that in developed countries and airport numbers at about 10%[3][17]. - The healthcare sector's value added is only 2.6% of GDP, significantly lower than the 5.3%-8% range in developed nations, indicating a need for improvement in healthcare services[3][18]. Long-Term Consumption Trends - Long-term consumption rates are influenced by factors such as population structure, economic growth, and institutional reforms, with a high savings rate acting as a slow variable in the economy[3][5]. - The current economic environment has led to a rise in the savings rate, with household savings increasing from 81.3 trillion yuan in 2021 to 159 trillion yuan in April 2023[5][42].

Core Insights - The "618" promotional event has introduced two new features: the simplification of discount methods and the integration of national subsidies, leading to significant consumer interest and engagement [1][2][4] Group 1: New Promotional Methods - The promotional strategies have shifted to simpler and more direct discounts, with platforms eliminating complex discount structures in favor of straightforward price reductions [1][4] - The introduction of national subsidies has allowed certain products to be offered at discounts as low as 50%, enhancing the appeal of the promotions [3][8] - Major brands such as Apple and Xiaomi have seen significant price reductions on their products, with the iPhone 16 Pro being offered at a final price of 5499 yuan after applying various discounts [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - There is a notable increase in consumer engagement, with over 20 million products participating in the "618" event, reflecting a strong demand for both high-end and budget-friendly items [3][10] - The trend indicates that consumers are increasingly checking for national subsidies before making purchases, with significant participation from various provinces and cities across China [9][10] - The younger demographic, particularly those born after 2000, is reshaping market demand, showing a preference for high-quality, stylish products that enhance their lifestyle [10] Group 3: Sales Performance - The sales performance during the "618" event has been remarkable, with a 283% increase in total transaction volume for categories like home appliances and digital products compared to last year's "Double 11" event [7] - The national subsidy program has effectively driven sales, with 1.1 trillion yuan in sales attributed to the program and a significant increase in the number of consumers utilizing these subsidies [7][8] - The home appliance sector has experienced continuous double-digit growth, with retail sales in this category increasing by 38.8% in April alone [8] Group 4: Logistics and Service Enhancements - E-commerce platforms are enhancing their logistics services, with initiatives like same-day delivery for products purchased through national subsidy programs [5][6] - The "618" event has seen improvements in the recycling and replacement of old appliances, with comprehensive services offered across various regions [5][6] Group 5: Economic Impact - The "618" event and national subsidies are seen as crucial for stimulating domestic consumption, contributing to a consumption contribution rate of 51.7% in the first quarter of the year [11][12] - Collaborative efforts among government, platforms, and merchants are essential to maximize the potential of shopping festivals in driving economic growth [12]

Group 1 - China's high-tech zones reported industrial revenue exceeding 10 trillion yuan in the first four months of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [6] - The "Two New" policies are being actively implemented across various regions, effectively accelerating the release of consumption potential [7] - The renovation of old urban residential areas is progressing rapidly, with 5,679 new projects started in the first four months of this year [8] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments are launching a digital transformation plan for the electronic information manufacturing industry, aiming for over 85% CNC rate in key processes by 2027 [12] - A pilot program for the integration of human resources services and manufacturing industries will be conducted in about 30 cities over three years to promote high-quality employment [13] - The Ministry of Finance issued 12.5 billion yuan of government bonds in Hong Kong, with a subscription rate of 3.96 times, indicating strong investor interest [16]

Group 1 - China's high-tech zones reported industrial revenue exceeding 10 trillion yuan in the first four months of this year [4] - The "Two New" policies are continuously driving the acceleration of consumer potential [5] - The renovation of old urban residential areas in China is progressing rapidly [6] Group 2 - Major engineering projects are being actively promoted across various regions [7] - The digital transformation implementation plan for the electronic information manufacturing industry has been issued [10][10] - A pilot program for the integration of human resources services and manufacturing industries is being organized [10]

Group 1 - The 618 shopping festival has become a critical battleground for e-commerce platforms and brands, showcasing new characteristics such as simplified discount methods and increased consumer engagement [1][2] - Platforms have eliminated complex discount strategies in favor of straightforward "instant discounts," enhancing user experience and aligning with a more rational consumer mindset focused on product quality and value [1][2] - The integration of live streaming and short video content has led to a noticeable trend of online and offline retail convergence, promoting consumption through various channels [1] Group 2 - The extended promotional period of over a month allows for multi-scenario consumption and helps alleviate pressure on platforms and merchants, optimizing inventory and logistics [2] - Merchants are encouraged to innovate marketing strategies beyond traditional discounts, incorporating cashback, gifts, and exclusive member benefits to enhance consumer engagement [2] - The emphasis on creating unique shopping experiences, such as themed shopping festivals and the use of VR/AR technologies, aims to improve overall consumer satisfaction [2][3] Group 3 - A multi-channel collaboration approach is recommended to combine online, offline, and community group buying, catering to diverse consumer needs [3] - The focus on rational, quality, and green consumption trends encourages brands to innovate and upgrade their products, offering healthier and more environmentally friendly options [3] - Efficient financial, logistics, and after-sales services are essential to enhance the overall shopping experience and build long-term brand competitiveness [3]

Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods reached 371.74 billion yuan, growing by 5.1% year-on-year [1][4] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for January to April was 1,470.24 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [1] Consumer Trends - The "new pragmatic" consumption trend emphasizes the dual demand for "quality-price ratio" and "supporting services," encouraging companies to integrate products and services deeply [1][11] - The shift in consumption patterns from "external display" to "internal entertainment" highlights the importance of service consumption in driving economic growth [1][9] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is currently in a bottoming phase, with short-term policies focusing on stabilizing demand while maintaining supply and basic needs in the long term [1][6] - Policies such as lowering mortgage rates and optimizing city-specific support measures are suggested to boost market confidence [1][5] Manufacturing Sector - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors achieved high growth rates of 9.8% and 10% respectively, indicating ongoing industrial structure optimization [1][4] - Encouragement for companies to expand into high value-added and high-quality end products is emphasized [1][5] Foreign Trade - In April, exports increased by 9.3% year-on-year, with a notable shift of enterprises towards domestic sales, indicating a diversification of market strategies [1][14] - Future foreign trade focus should include enhancing resilience in supply chains and exploring new markets through regional cooperation like RCEP and the Belt and Road Initiative [1][16]