Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 Index decreased by 1.55% this week, with an average daily trading volume of 19.4 billion, reflecting a 2.8% decrease compared to the previous week [6][11][16] - The new stock, Hengdongguang, listed this week, with a first-day increase of 878.16% and a turnover rate of 53.79% [11][30] - The theme investment remains active, particularly in sectors such as humanoid robots, AI, commercial aerospace, and nuclear fusion, with notable performances from Tianming Technology (+65.8%) and Lifan Holdings (+29.9%) [11][12][13] Group 2 - A total of 40 companies were accepted for public offering this week, with several expected to achieve over 200 million yuan in net profit for 2024 [12][13] - The report highlights the potential for high-quality expansion in the North Exchange in 2026, with attention on companies like Jieli Technology and Xianlin Sanwei [12][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in theme investments, particularly in the context of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" and the spring market [13][14] Group 3 - The report indicates a shift in market style from small-cap stocks to growth sectors, with a focus on technology and cyclical industries for the first half of 2026 [13][14] - The North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 82.98 times, with a median of 39.74 times, indicating a valuation landscape that investors should consider [4][24][26] - The report notes that the financing balance for margin trading on the North Exchange is 7.985 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing investor engagement [6][30] Group 4 - The new third board saw 8 new listings and 3 delistings this week, with a total of 5960 companies listed [47][49] - The report mentions that the new third board completed financing of 769 million yuan this week, indicating active capital movement [47][52] - The report provides insights into the fundraising plans of various companies, highlighting significant amounts raised in the medical and mechanical sectors [52][53]

Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the North Exchange A-shares had a total of 288 stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.019 billion yuan[19] - The North Exchange 50 Index fell by 1.55% during the week of December 29 to December 31, closing at 1,440.43 points[19] - The average daily trading volume for North Exchange A-shares was 19.439 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.74% from the previous week[19] New Stock Listings - The new stock Hengtong Light (stock code: 920045.BJ) was listed on December 31, 2025, with a revenue of 1.625 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 91.38%[3][27] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Hengtong Light was 224 million yuan, up 123.75% year-on-year[3][27] Investment Insights - The North Exchange's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios as of December 31, 2025, were 45.85 for A-shares, 43.62 for the ChiNext, 13.08 for the Shanghai Main Board, 23.21 for the Shenzhen Main Board, and 75.12 for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board[4][28] - The report suggests focusing on technology sectors such as robotics, AI, commercial aerospace, and smart driving during the "spring market rally" period[4][28] Risks - Potential policy risks may affect investor enthusiasm and market heat[5][29] - Liquidity risks exist due to lower trading volumes compared to other boards like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ChiNext[5][29] - Earnings may not meet expectations due to external market changes, impacting stock prices negatively[5][29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the overseas computing power chain will maintain an upward trend in prosperity, with North American CSPs expected to continue high capital expenditure and enthusiasm for data center construction, supported by rapid scaling of computing chips like NVIDIA GPUs and Google TPUs, and the next generation of products expected to be commercialized by 2026 [1][2] - Domestic internet companies are also maintaining high investment in computing power construction, with the penetration rate of domestic computing supernodes expected to continue to rise, and some supernodes adopting optical interconnection solutions, further releasing demand for optical interconnection [1][2] - The optical interconnection sector is projected to be a high-certainty investment direction for 2026, with the high-end optical module market expected to grow annually, and demand visibility likely to extend further, driving rapid growth in the performance of supply chain companies [2] Group 2 - Key investment opportunities include leading companies that have entered the overseas/domestic computing supply chain, which are expected to benefit from the high growth of the optical interconnection industry, with specific companies suggested for attention such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, Guangxun Technology, and Huagong Technology [2] - The release of demand for high-speed optical modules will bring significant growth in demand for upstream optical chips and devices, with potential supply-demand mismatches expected to enhance the sector's prosperity, suggesting attention to companies like Yuanjie Technology, Shijia Photon, Changguang Huaxin, Yongding Co., and Dekeli [2] - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a rapid development phase, with multiple catalysts expected by 2026, particularly the launch of reusable and large-capacity commercial rockets, which will significantly enhance rocket capacity and facilitate satellite communication development [3] Group 3 - The end-side AI is entering a major tool era, with competition expected to extend from smaller devices to broader consumer-facing tools like smartphones, leading to investment opportunities in end-side AI hardware manufacturers and cloud-edge computing demand [4] - The liquid cooling sector is expected to experience a significant demand release in both overseas and domestic markets, with domestic supernodes entering a golden development period, suggesting attention to companies like Yingweike, Gaolan Co., Shenling Environment, and Kexin Innovation Source [4] - The long-cycle turning point for optical fiber and cable may have been confirmed, with the industry previously in a state of oversupply, but now expected to benefit from increased demand for high-end optical fibers, which could enhance profit levels for manufacturers [6]

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·通信 通信行业点评报告 2026 年通信投资机会梳理：算力为核，卫星 为翼 2026 年 01 月 04 日 证券分析师 欧子兴 执业证书：S0600525110002 ouzx@dwzq.com.cn -9% 2% 13% 24% 35% 46% 57% 68% 79% 90% 101% 2025/1/3 2025/5/3 2025/8/31 2025/12/29 通信 沪深300 相关研究 《 AI 算力方案多点开花，继续看好 光互联方向》 2025-11-27 《AI 算力跟踪深度（四）：怎么看算力 的天花板和成长性？》 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025-10-16 东吴证券研究所 1 / 3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 行业走势 ◼ 光互联核心受益海外算力与国内算力需求共振。展望 2026 年，海外算 力链将保持景气度向上。北美 CSP 对资本开支保持高投入预期，数据中 心建设热情高涨，以英伟达 GPU 和谷歌 TPU 为代表的算力芯片都在快 速上量，更下一代产品也将在 2026 年开始商用，与之配套的光互联全 ...

Core Insights - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) has achieved significant high-quality development in 2025, with a total of 26 companies listed, raising a total of 7.619 billion yuan [1] - The newly listed companies exhibit a trend of quality improvement, with a notable concentration of "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" small giant enterprises, accounting for nearly 70% of the new listings [1] - The BSE's secondary market remains active, with the North China 50 Index increasing by 38.8% and the specialized index rising by 44.01% [1] Group 1 - The listing of Hengtongguang marks the 26th company to join the BSE in 2025, focusing on passive optical devices in the optical communication sector [1] - A total of 26 companies raised 7.619 billion yuan, indicating a robust fundraising environment [1] - The new listings include 18 specialized small giant enterprises across key sectors such as high-end manufacturing, new materials, TMT, biomedicine, and rail transportation [1] Group 2 - The average first-day stock price increase for new shares exceeds 300%, with some stocks experiencing intraday gains over 1000% [2] - The total funds for individual new shares approached 1 trillion yuan, reflecting strong investor interest in innovative small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the total number of listed companies on the BSE reached 288, with a total market capitalization of 869.4 billion yuan [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the unprecedented opportunities in the optical communication sector, driven by the explosive growth in AI computing power and infrastructure needs [2][4]. Group 1: AI Arms Race and Infrastructure - The competition in AI has evolved from merely acquiring chips to building comprehensive computing and interconnect capabilities [5]. - Major companies like Google and Meta are developing custom ASIC chips and data centers to enhance AI system efficiency [7]. - The essence of this competition is to scale computing power, with optical communication networks serving as the "highway" for connecting computing units [10]. Group 2: Optical Module Market Dynamics - The demand for optical modules is surging due to the exponential increase in data throughput and the need for higher transmission speeds [16]. - The transition from 400G/800G to 1.6T and the anticipated move towards 3.2T in optical module technology reflects the industry's rapid evolution [16]. - Chinese manufacturers are rising in prominence, with seven out of the top ten global optical module companies being Chinese by 2024 [18]. Group 3: Key Players in Optical Communication - Company A (中际旭创) is a global leader in high-speed optical modules, particularly in the 800G and next-generation 1.6T segments, and is closely tied to major AI firms like NVIDIA and Google [19]. - Company B (高意) ranks among the top three globally and is recognized for its differentiated technology in linear drive pluggable optical modules [21]. - Company C (光迅科技) has a vertically integrated business model covering the entire optical communication supply chain, enhancing its risk management and cost control [23]. Group 4: Technological Innovations - Silicon photonics technology is revolutionizing traditional optical modules by integrating multiple optical components into a single silicon chip, leading to significant cost and power savings [31]. - The cost of silicon optical modules is projected to decrease significantly, with the market expected to reach $10.3 billion by 2029, capturing a larger share of the optical module market [34]. - Emerging technologies like Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) and Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) are set to further enhance efficiency and reduce latency in data centers [35]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article emphasizes that while risks exist, the demand for AI-driven computing and interconnect solutions is expected to remain robust, indicating a prolonged high-growth cycle for optical communication [38]. - Historical trends show that each technological revolution has been preceded by infrastructure upgrades, positioning the optical communication sector at the forefront of the current AI era [42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes a mid-term investment strategy focusing on hard technology, with a strong correlation between performance and growth, particularly in AI infrastructure and hardware sectors [4][5]. - Key sectors include optical modules, AI PCBs, and liquid cooling systems, which are expected to benefit from global demand for computing power [4][5]. - The article suggests that the AI industry chain is entering a phase of large-scale implementation, leading to a rigid growth in hardware demand and opening up new market opportunities for leading and secondary manufacturers [5]. Group 2 - For short to medium-term opportunities, the focus is on AI applications and software, particularly in AI + SaaS and industrial software, with a preference for companies that have overseas mapping logic and high performance realization [6][7]. - The article highlights the importance of domestic substitution in sectors like semiconductors, chip design, and AI hardware, driven by policy and technological breakthroughs [8][9]. - High elasticity sectors such as humanoid robots and AI power are noted for their potential, with a focus on real orders and commercialization processes [10]. Group 3 - The article outlines a short-term strategy driven by themes and event catalysts, including energy, strategic resources, and emerging topics like quantum computing and controllable nuclear fusion [13][14]. - The core logic for the cross-year mainline is based on the three-dimensional resonance of performance, capital, and industry, emphasizing the need for verifiable order increments and avoiding pure speculative trading [15]. Group 4 - The article suggests that companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication have reached reasonable valuations and are positioned for a deepening industry phase from 2026 to 2027 [16]. - It emphasizes the need to closely monitor the progress of domestic upstream material suppliers entering the North American supply chain and the capacity release of secondary optical module manufacturers [16]. - The article also stresses the importance of tracking major AI players like Nvidia and Google for insights into the extension of the AI industry chain and the potential benefits for the A-share market [17]. Group 5 - The investment priority is outlined as mid-term (AI infrastructure + high elasticity) > wave opportunities (software or domestic substitution) > thematic (short-term speculation) [19]. - The core strategy is to use hard technology as a foundation while seeking returns from elastic sectors, focusing on the verification and realization of orders, performance, and industry logic [20]. - Key milestones for validation include Q1 and Q2 2026 financial reports and the pace of AI application commercialization, which may serve as a turning point for individual stock performance [21].

Group 1 - The A-share market set multiple records in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark for the first time since August 2015, closing at 3968.84 points, marking an 18.41% increase for the year, the best performance since 2020 [5][8] - Over 500 stocks in the A-share market doubled in value, with 540 stocks increasing by over 100%, and 10 stocks rising by more than 500%. The top performer, Upwind New Materials, surged by 1820.29% [8][11] - The U.S. stock market also saw significant gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rising by 16.39% and 20.36% respectively, marking three consecutive years of growth [12][15] Group 2 - Precious metals experienced substantial increases, with gold rising over 60% and silver increasing by over 140% throughout 2025 [3][17] - The price of gold reached $4318.258 per ounce, while silver was priced at $71.577 per ounce at the end of 2025, reflecting significant annual gains [18][19] - Analysts attribute the rise in precious metal prices to macroeconomic factors, including monetary and financial conditions, which are expected to continue influencing prices in 2026 [20] Group 3 - In 2025, a notable performance was observed in public funds, with the top fund, managed by Ren Jie, achieving a 233.29% return, breaking a 17-year record for annual returns [21][22] - The investment strategy of the top-performing fund focused on the global cloud computing industry, indicating a high concentration in key sectors [24] - The competition among funds was intense, with 90 funds achieving returns over 100%, highlighting the aggressive nature of the market in 2025 [30] Group 4 - Looking ahead to 2026, companies are expected to see a 4.8% increase in net profits, driven by domestic demand policies and structural opportunities in the market [32] - Analysts suggest focusing on three key areas: upgrading traditional manufacturing, globalization of Chinese enterprises, and the commercialization of AI applications [32][33] - The investment strategy emphasizes a focus on hard technology and flexible sectors, with a preference for companies demonstrating solid order and performance metrics [34][36]

Summary of Google TPU and Liquid Cooling Demand Insights Industry and Company Involved - The discussion revolves around Google and its upcoming changes in the TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) architecture and the associated demand for optical modules and liquid cooling technology [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Google is expected to significantly increase the shipment of V7+8 TPUs by 2026, primarily featuring 1.6T optical modules and liquid cooling technology, indicating substantial changes in the related supply chain [1][3]. - The introduction of 3D Taurus or Cloth architecture at the cabinet level is anticipated, which will increase the demand for scale-up optical modules and Active Optical Cables (AOC) [1][4]. - The 3D Taurus architecture aims to reduce latency through direct interconnection, with each Cube containing 64 TPUs, while the Cloth architecture employs a traditional fat-tree multi-layer network to alleviate OCS (Optical Circuit Switching) port pressure [5][6]. - The structural changes are projected to significantly boost the demand for 1.6T optical modules, benefiting suppliers like Zhongji Xuchuang and Yuanjie Technology; increased chip counts will raise power consumption, leading to a higher demand for liquid cooling, favoring suppliers like Invec [7]. Additional Important Content - Liquid cooling technology is critical to the entire data center solution, requiring stringent supplier selection. Once a supplier enters Google's supply chain, their market share tends to grow steadily, provided their product quality remains high [8]. - Companies expected to benefit from these changes include Zhongji Xuchuang, NewEase, Yuanjie Technology, and others in the optical module sector, as well as Invec in the liquid cooling sector. Additionally, companies linked to the AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) supply chain, such as Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, Tengjing Technology, and Oulu Tong, are also likely to gain from these developments [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the remarkable performance of the Yongying Technology Smart Selection Fund, managed by Ren Jie, achieving a unit net value growth rate of 233.29%, making it the top-performing fund in the public offering market for 2025, surpassing the previous record held for 17 years [1][3] - The fund, established on October 30, 2024, reached a scale of 11.521 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, with 91.59% of its total assets invested in stocks, primarily focused on the global cloud computing industry and key sectors like optical communication and PCB [3][10] - Ren Jie emphasizes that the current market rally is underpinned by a more solid foundation than in the past, driven by internal changes in the Chinese economy, with new productive forces becoming a new engine for economic growth [9][10] Group 2 - The investment strategy of Ren Jie is characterized by a focus on capturing "changes" in the market, relying on deep research to understand industry dynamics and company fundamentals, rather than short-term market sentiments [5][7] - Ren Jie transitioned from traditional industry classifications to a trend-based investment framework, allowing for a broader understanding of technological advancements and cross-industry opportunities, particularly in AI and cloud computing [6][10] - The article notes that the global cloud computing industry remains a key area of focus, with significant developments in AI models and their commercialization, indicating a potential for higher investment levels in the sector [10][11] Group 3 - Ren Jie advises that any risk asset is not guaranteed to rise indefinitely, urging investors to manage their expectations and understand the risk-return profile of the funds they invest in [4][12] - Recommendations for investors include implementing risk control measures before making investment decisions, diversifying investments to mitigate risks, and avoiding attempts to predict short-term market fluctuations [13] - The article underscores the importance of a rational approach to investment, particularly in high-growth sectors, and emphasizes the need for investors to be aware of the inherent volatility associated with such investments [4][12][13]