Core Viewpoint - MINISO SPACE, the first global store of MINISO, opened in Nanjing's Deji Plaza, marking a significant innovation in the intersection of high-end retail and trendy IPs [3][10]. Group 1: Store Opening and Consumer Response - The opening day saw long queues, with consumers starting to line up as early as 2 AM to purchase limited edition products [6]. - The exclusive WAKUKU products launched at the store quickly sold out, indicating strong demand among young consumers [6][17]. Group 2: Strategic Positioning and Market Impact - MINISO SPACE is positioned as an immersive IP-themed retail space, aiming to bridge high-end commercial environments with popular consumer trends [10][13]. - The store is located in Deji Plaza, known as the "global store king," with annual sales reaching 24.5 billion yuan, highlighting the strategic choice of location for MINISO [10]. Group 3: Design and Experience - The store features a narrative flow of "exhibition-experience-retail," designed by the team behind the popular "internet celebrity restroom" in Deji, integrating art installations and interactive experiences [14]. - Consumers can engage with multiple globally recognized IP themes, including Disney and Harry Potter, enhancing the shopping experience [16].

Core Viewpoint - MUJI has experienced a significant turnaround in its performance in China, driven by a combination of local market adaptation, consumer insights, and strategic operational changes [2][4][15]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first quarter of the new fiscal year, MUJI reported a revenue increase of 21.3% year-on-year, reaching 197.6 billion yen, and an operating profit increase of 58.2%, totaling 21.9 billion yen [2]. - MUJI's sales in mainland China exceeded expectations, with existing store sales growing over 11.0% year-on-year [2][15]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - China is MUJI's most important overseas market, with a dedicated marketing and product development team, and it has become the second-largest market globally after Japan [3][6]. - MUJI has shifted its strategy to include localized operations, such as launching delivery services, live streaming sales, and opening unique stores to cater to Chinese consumers [4][5][15]. Group 3: Consumer Insights - The brand's revival is attributed to its long-standing consumer-centric philosophy, resonating with the current trend of sustainability and long-term value among Chinese consumers [6][12]. - MUJI's target demographic includes a diverse range of consumers, from young professionals to affluent middle-class individuals, who appreciate the brand's focus on practicality and timeless design [8][12]. Group 4: Product Adaptation - MUJI has introduced over 5,000 customized products tailored to Chinese consumer preferences, including pet supplies and mobile accessories, reflecting a deep understanding of local market needs [16][17]. - The company has also adjusted its pricing strategy, with significant price reductions on various products, making them more competitive in the market [17][18]. Group 5: Operational Changes - MUJI has streamlined its supply chain and increased local sourcing, with a goal of achieving 70% local supply for certain product categories in mainland China [17]. - The company has accelerated its store opening strategy, increasing the number of new stores from an average of 20+ per year to over 50 in recent years, with a total of 414 stores across 81 cities in China [20]. Group 6: Marketing and Sales Channels - MUJI has successfully expanded its online presence and introduced instant retail through partnerships with platforms like Meituan, significantly enhancing its sales performance [19]. - The company has leveraged promotional events, such as "MUJI Week," to drive customer engagement and boost sales across channels [18].

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on high-quality growth through channel optimization and inventory adjustments, with expectations for improved same-store sales and profitability recovery in the coming quarters [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Market Performance - The company aims to stabilize and gradually improve same-store sales by refining product offerings and services to address competitive pressures [1]. - Inventory adjustments are being made to better match demand across different market tiers, enhancing product quality in lower-tier markets while promoting popular products in higher-tier markets [1]. - The company has closed underperforming stores and is focusing on flagship "big stores" to drive growth, with new store openings planned [1]. Group 2: Overseas Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its overseas operations by establishing a product development team in North America and improving same-store performance since April [2]. - Cost optimization strategies are being implemented, including concentrated store openings and flexible staffing to reduce operational costs in North America [2]. - The company is also strengthening guidance for overseas partners and exploring new store models in the agent market [2]. Group 3: Profitability and Financial Forecast - The company anticipates short-term fluctuations in profitability due to the ramp-up phase of high-growth businesses, but expects improvements as operational models are optimized [2]. - The company projects adjusted net profits of 2.99 billion, 3.73 billion, and 4.57 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [2]. - A target price of 47 HKD is maintained, with a PE ratio of 18x for 2025, reflecting short-term business uncertainties [2].

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's stock price plummeted over 18% on May 26, primarily due to concerns raised by its Q1 2025 financial report, which showed revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit [2] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Miniso reported revenue of 4.43 billion RMB, an 18.9% year-on-year increase, while net profit fell by 28.92% to 417 million RMB [2][3] - The increase in revenue was overshadowed by a sharp rise in sales and distribution expenses, which reached 1.02 billion RMB, a 46.7% increase year-on-year [3][4] - General and administrative expenses also rose by 26.6% to 242 million RMB, further squeezing profit margins [3][4] Cost Structure - The rise in sales and distribution expenses was attributed to direct investments in new stores and interest expenses from loans related to the acquisition of Yonghui Superstores [4] - High operational costs associated with overseas expansion, including rent, depreciation, and wages, increased by 71.4%, leading to low profit contributions from new stores [5] Market Expansion and Competition - As of March 31, 2025, Miniso had expanded its overseas store count to 3,213, a net increase of 617 stores year-on-year [5][6] - The company faces challenges in the domestic market due to increased competition and changing consumer preferences, which have diminished the effectiveness of its low-price strategy [6] - Same-store sales have shown a mid-single-digit decline, indicating reduced operational efficiency and growth potential in the domestic market [6] Debt and Financial Health - Miniso's total liabilities nearly doubled from 7.77 billion RMB to 15.51 billion RMB, with the debt-to-asset ratio rising from 42.85% to 59.22% [7][8] - Despite revenue growth, the significant drop in net profit, risks from overseas expansion, and intense market competition raise concerns about the company's future profitability and ability to manage costs effectively [8]

Core Viewpoint - MINISO's stock price has significantly dropped in both US and Hong Kong markets, leading to a market value loss exceeding $2 billion since the beginning of the year, following disappointing quarterly earnings reports [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, MINISO reported total revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, but net profit fell by 28.9% to 417 million yuan [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was approximately 587 million yuan, down from 617 million yuan in Q1 2024, marking a new low in nearly seven quarters [2][4]. - The company's gross profit increased by 21.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 0.8 percentage points to 44.2% [2]. Cost and Expense Management - Sales and distribution expenses surged to 1.021 billion yuan, a 46.7% increase compared to Q1 2024, with sales expenses accounting for 52.2% of gross profit [4][6]. - The company’s costs related to rent, depreciation, and labor rose by 71.4% during the reporting period, indicating challenges in cost control [4][6]. Store Expansion and Strategy - MINISO's overseas store count nearly doubled from 281 to 548, while the number of TOP TOY stores increased from 17 to 40, reflecting aggressive expansion strategies [4][5]. - The average size of new stores opened in Q1 2025 was approximately 300 square meters, with a focus on upgrading store formats [5][6]. Market Position and Competition - The domestic store count showed signs of stagnation, with a net increase of only 241 stores in mainland China, marking the first sequential decline since Q2 2022 [7][11]. - The main brand's revenue in mainland China was approximately 2.494 billion yuan, with a modest year-on-year growth of 9.1%, indicating a slowdown compared to previous high double-digit growth rates [11]. Future Outlook - The company is considering a potential spin-off of TOP TOY for a Hong Kong listing, aiming to raise $300 million, but faces challenges related to high licensing costs and the need for a distinct brand identity [12][14].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with a gross margin of 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 590 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year [1] - The domestic same-store sales showed improvement, with a significant recovery in sales performance since the beginning of the year, and a notable recovery during the May Day holiday [1] - The company achieved a total of 4,275 stores in China by the end of March 2025, with a net closure of 111 stores, focusing on high-quality development and refined store network strategy [1] Group 2: International Operations - In Q1 2025, the company's overseas revenue reached 1.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, despite high base pressure from the previous year [2] - The company added 95 new stores overseas, focusing on markets in Asia and North America, with a stable performance in overseas same-store sales when viewed from a two-year compound growth perspective [2] - Since April, there has been a month-on-month improvement in same-store performance in key overseas markets such as Mexico and the United States, supported by the execution of the IP strategy and store quality enhancement [2] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company is committed to a five-year strategic plan aimed at stable profit growth, with projected revenues of 20.54 billion yuan, 24.60 billion yuan, and 29.55 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to growth rates of 20.9%, 19.7%, and 20.2% respectively [2] - Adjusted net profits are expected to be 2.86 billion yuan, 3.68 billion yuan, and 4.56 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 4.97%, 28.74%, and 24.04% respectively [2] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating due to its supply chain advantages and strengthened IP conversion capabilities, alongside ongoing global strategic initiatives [2]

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's high gross profit margin is showing signs of strain as the company faces challenges in maintaining profitability despite revenue growth [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In Q1, Miniso reported revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, an 18.9% year-on-year increase, but net profit fell by 4.8% to 587 million yuan, leading to a net profit margin decline of 3.3 percentage points to 13.3% [2] - The company's revenue has grown 1.5 times over the past two years, with 2,200 new stores opened, and overseas store growth consistently outpacing domestic growth [9] Market Position and Strategy - Miniso's optimistic outlook on same-store sales contrasts with market skepticism, as the company aims for a revenue growth acceleration in the latter half of the year [4] - The company is transitioning from a low-cost brand to a "global IP co-branded store," which has raised expectations for international expansion [7][8] Operational Challenges - The increase in revenue without corresponding profit growth is seen as a potential warning sign, with significant investments in IP licensing and a shift in business strategy [5][6] - The company has adopted a three-pronged store opening strategy: partner model, direct operation model, and agency model in overseas markets [10] International Expansion - Miniso's overseas direct stores have increased to 548, more than doubling in two years, with a focus on the North American market [11] - However, the rapid expansion of overseas direct stores has led to increased upfront costs, impacting short-term profitability [12] Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic market is showing signs of saturation, particularly in first- and second-tier cities, with a projected store penetration rate of 66% [15] - Same-store sales growth is declining, with a shift from a 30-35% growth rate in 2023 to an expected 8-9% decline in 2024 [16] IP Strategy and Risks - Miniso's reliance on IP products has increased, with IP product sales contributing significantly to revenue, but the associated costs are rising [23][26] - The company faces challenges in balancing the cost of IP licensing with consumer price sensitivity, especially in a competitive market [25][27] Capital Management - Financial costs have nearly doubled year-on-year, with the company issuing $550 million in convertible bonds and facing increased debt levels [32][42] - Miniso's acquisition of Yonghui Superstores has raised questions about its impact on profitability, despite the stock price increase since the acquisition [40][41] Future Outlook - The potential IPO of TOP TOY could alleviate some financial pressures on Miniso while expanding its market presence [43][46] - The company aims to maintain double-digit growth in the domestic market, focusing on same-store sales rather than aggressive new store openings [17][19]

Group 1 - Miniso (MNSO.N) stock fell over 2% in pre-market trading following earnings report [1] - Multiple major investment banks have downgraded earnings forecasts for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's 1Q25 revenue increased by 18.9% YoY to RMB4,427 million, but adjusted net profit (NP) declined by 4.8% YoY to RMB587 million, missing market expectations significantly. This decline is attributed to higher operating expenses related to new self-operated stores in the US, impacting the margin structure. Management remains optimistic about the full-year outlook, particularly for 4Q25, but investor concerns regarding earnings may take time to alleviate. The company is expected to present buying opportunities following the post-1Q25 earnings softness [1][2][5]. Revenue and Profit Performance - 1Q25 revenue growth of 18.9% YoY was in line with expectations, but adjusted NP fell by 4.8% YoY to RMB587 million, marking the lowest level since 3Q23. This decline contrasts sharply with the 20% YoY growth in NP recorded in 4Q24. The significant drop in adjusted NP is primarily due to a 47% YoY increase in selling and distribution expenses, which reached RMB1,021 million [2][3]. Operating Expenses and Store Strategy - The increase in operating expenses is mainly due to frontloaded costs associated with new self-operated stores in the US, which have higher operating expenses compared to franchised stores. Although the impact of these self-operated stores may diminish over time, it requires proof of effectiveness [3][4]. Management Outlook and Same-Store Sales Growth - Management anticipates that the new US stores will begin contributing to operating profits during the peak season in 4Q25. There has been sequential improvement in same-store sales growth (SSSG) in overseas markets, particularly in the US and Mexico, attributed to a refined strategy focusing on SSSG [4][5]. Future Expectations and Strategy Adjustments - Despite the 1Q25 miss, management's full-year target for 2025 remains unchanged, emphasizing a commitment to improving SSSG rather than aggressive store expansion. After a weak SSSG performance in 2024, there has been a quarter-over-quarter improvement in China, with expectations for further SSSG enhancement in 2Q25 [5][6]. Store Opening Plans - While the company still aims for a net store opening of 200-300 in 2025, management has indicated that this target is negotiable. The strategy of opening larger stores, particularly the IP-focused Miniso Land, is expected to support long-term SSSG growth [6]. Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast remains unchanged, with expectations that Miniso's earnings will align with original forecasts if self-operated stores overseas ramp up sufficiently in the second half of 2025. The target price is set at US$26.5 and HK$51.60, reflecting a P/E ratio of 20x/15x for 2025E/26E [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.9%, while net profit decreased by 28.9% to 417 million yuan [1]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 587 million yuan, a decline of 4.8% year-on-year [1]. - The overall gross margin increased by 0.8 percentage points to 44.2% in Q1 2025, driven by an increase in overseas market revenue and improvements in product mix [2]. - The MINISO brand revenue grew by 16.5% year-on-year, with overseas revenue increasing by 30.3% due to a 24.6% rise in average store count [2]. - The total number of stores reached 7,768 by the end of Q1 2025, with a net decrease of 12 stores, while domestic stores decreased by 111 and overseas stores increased by 95 [3]. - The company returned a total of 990 million yuan to shareholders, including 100 million USD in cash dividends and 260 million yuan in share buybacks [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenues of 20.415 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 20.1% [5]. - The projected profit attributable to equity shareholders for 2025 is 2.701 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 2.8% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.16 yuan [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 20.8% for 2025 [12]. Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on optimizing store quality and structure domestically while maintaining significant investments in overseas markets [4]. - The report highlights the importance of releasing operational leverage in overseas markets during peak seasons [4].