1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Spot prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Based on sow and piglet data, there may still be a slight increase in hog slaughter volume by December, and with ample supply, it's difficult for hog prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference exists, which may enhance farmers' willingness to increase weight. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if so, hog prices are expected to rebound at the end of the year. One could consider a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, this week's futures prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spreads fluctuated and adjusted. With the weakness of the spot market, the 11 - 01 contract showed a reverse spread trend [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and hog prices fluctuated weakly [13]. - **区域价差**: Regional price differences were relatively reasonable [15]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard price difference can strengthen after the weather turns cool, which may enhance the weight - increasing willingness of scattered farmers if it does [17]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [21]. - **养殖利润**: Self - breeding and self - raising still had profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening was in a slight loss state [23]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [25]. 3.3 Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of July was 40.42 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. Mysteel data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [27]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: This week, the price of culled sows showed a weak trend. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, indicating an increase in the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction [29]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (previous value: + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the volume of hogs to be slaughtered in February next year (calculated based on a 6 - month fattening period) [31]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [33]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises in July was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. In terms of frozen products, the market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on hog prices will change from positive to neutral - negative [35]. 3.5 Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic hog prices is relatively limited [38].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy documents emphasize the importance of promoting green and low-carbon development in the livestock industry, highlighting the need for a transition towards an environmentally friendly production system to address significant greenhouse gas emissions from livestock farming [1][2]. Group 1: Policy and Strategic Direction - The central government has issued opinions to stimulate the internal motivation for green and low-carbon development across society, with a focus on the agricultural sector [1]. - The "Two Mountains" concept is highlighted as a guiding principle for ecological civilization, aiming to establish a low-carbon and environmentally friendly modern livestock production system [1]. Group 2: Current Challenges - Despite rapid development in the livestock sector, significant environmental pollution issues persist, particularly greenhouse gas emissions from livestock, primarily methane from ruminants and manure [1]. - The adoption rate of pollution reduction and carbon reduction technologies remains low due to limited environmental awareness among farmers, inadequate management levels, and outdated facilities [1][2]. Group 3: Recommendations for Transition - Accelerating the development of new productive forces in the livestock industry is essential, focusing on technological innovation and digitalization to enhance production efficiency and environmental monitoring [2]. - Increasing awareness and understanding of pollution reduction and carbon reduction technologies among farmers is crucial, necessitating widespread dissemination of knowledge and tailored training programs [2][3]. Group 4: Technical Promotion and Support - Establishing a comprehensive technical promotion system that considers regional characteristics and employs diverse strategies is necessary for effective implementation [3]. - Encouraging the development of low-carbon feed products is vital for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with recommendations for establishing industry standards and providing financial incentives for research and development [3].

Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, which was anticipated and reflected in the market [2] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts, with Powell indicating this was a "risk management" cut, suggesting a hawkish stance [2] - Market expectations for further rate cuts in October and December may be overly optimistic, indicating a need for caution [2] Group 2: U.S.-China Relations - Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump had a constructive phone call regarding U.S.-China relations, focusing on strategic guidance for future stability [2] - Xi emphasized the historical alliance between China and the U.S. during World War II and the importance of cherishing peace and creating a better future [2] Group 3: Agricultural Production - Autumn grain, which accounts for three-quarters of China's annual grain production, is entering the harvest season, with significant contributions from various regions [3] - In Heilongjiang, the grain planting area remains stable at over 22 million acres, with corn planting area around 10 million acres [3] - In Hunan, over half of the 22 million acres of mid-season rice has been harvested, while in Chongqing, rice harvest is over 90% complete, indicating a positive outlook for total grain production [3] Group 4: Livestock Production - A meeting was held to discuss the regulation of pig production capacity, focusing on controlling the breeding sow population and limiting "secondary fattening" [4] - Although the proposed reduction in production did not meet expectations, the overall trend towards reduced production to support prices is confirmed [4] Group 5: Domestic Computing Power - Huawei announced a series of upcoming and planned chips, including Ascend computing chips and Kunpeng CPUs [6] - SMIC is testing its first domestic DUV lithography machine, with encouraging preliminary results [6] - As design and manufacturing capabilities improve, domestic computing power is expected to catch up, potentially driving the next market trend [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy documents emphasize the importance of promoting green and low-carbon development in the livestock industry, highlighting the need for a transition towards a modern, environmentally friendly production system [1][2]. Group 1: Current Challenges and Context - The livestock industry in China has seen rapid development since the 18th National Congress, but it still faces significant environmental pollution issues, particularly greenhouse gas emissions from livestock farming [1]. - Methane emissions from ruminant digestion and manure management are identified as major contributors to the livestock sector's greenhouse gas emissions [1]. - The adoption rate of pollution reduction and carbon reduction technologies remains low due to limited environmental awareness among farmers, inadequate management levels, and outdated facilities [1][2]. Group 2: Strategies for Green Transition - The transition from scale expansion to quality and efficiency enhancement in the livestock sector is crucial for achieving high-quality development and reducing environmental costs [2]. - Accelerating the development of new productive forces in the livestock industry is essential, which includes increasing investment in technological innovation and improving breeding techniques to enhance overall production efficiency [2]. - Raising awareness among farmers regarding pollution reduction and carbon reduction technologies is a prerequisite for promoting green transformation in the livestock sector [2]. Group 3: Technical Promotion and Support - Establishing and improving a technical promotion system tailored to regional characteristics and technology specifics is necessary for effective implementation [3]. - Encouraging the development of low-carbon feed is vital for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in livestock farming, with recommendations for establishing industry standards and certification systems for low-carbon feed products [3]. - Financial incentives such as subsidies and tax benefits are suggested to lower the costs for companies developing low-carbon feed, thereby increasing their motivation to innovate [3].

Core Viewpoint - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicates that inflation in the U.S. is ongoing, significantly impacting household expenses due to rising prices of essential goods and services [2] Price Increases - Ground beef prices have reached a historic high of $6.63 per pound, driven by a 75-year low in U.S. cattle inventory, drought-related feed cost increases, and high tariffs of 35% and 50% on beef imports from Canada and Brazil respectively [2] - Banana prices have surged to a historic high of $0.67 per pound, primarily due to tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% imposed on major banana-exporting countries like Mexico and Ecuador [2] Contributing Factors - Domestic production declines and avian influenza outbreaks are contributing to rising prices of other goods, with orange production hitting a near 90-year low, pushing prices close to historical highs [2] - The avian influenza may lead to new challenges for egg prices in the fall [2] - Energy costs are also rising, with electricity prices reaching new highs, increasing monthly expenses for average households [2] Economic Challenges - The report outlines multiple challenges facing the U.S. economy, including trade barriers, supply chain bottlenecks, and extreme weather impacts, all contributing to a comprehensive rise in living costs for ordinary families [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The investment logic for the pig industry continues to strengthen due to dual catalysts from policies and diseases, with a recommendation for long-term positioning despite current price lows [3][5] - The pet food export volume continues to grow year-on-year, indicating a sustained positive trend in the pet food market [4][28] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The pig price is running at a low level, with the national average price at 12.71 yuan/kg as of September 21, 2025, down 0.50 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 5.73 yuan/kg year-on-year [3][13] - The average weight of pigs sold is 128.45 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week and year-on-year [3][13] - The pig industry is expected to see a strong execution of policies aimed at capacity reduction, which will enhance the expectations for substantial capacity reduction [3][13] Weekly Viewpoint - The investment logic for the pig industry is marginally improving, with a recommendation for companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [5][24] - The domestic feed market is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [5][25] - The pet food sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [5][28] Market Performance (September 15-19) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 1.40 percentage points, with the agricultural index down 2.70% [6][29] - Leading stocks included Shennong Biotechnology (+9.36%), Xuelong Biotechnology (+7.64%), and Tianma Technology (+3.90%) [6][29] Price Tracking (September 15-19) - The average price of pigs was 12.68 yuan/kg, down 0.66 yuan/kg from the previous week [7][37] - The average price of piglets was 22.38 yuan/kg, down 1.57 yuan/kg week-on-week [7][37] - The average price of beef was 65.60 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase [44][37] Key News (September 15-19) - Notification regarding the central reserve frozen pork storage auction scheduled for September 23, 2025, with 15,000 tons available for auction [35]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The spot price of live pigs is weakly operating, and the futures price is also in a weak state. The 9 - month supply and demand of live pigs both increase, but due to the inventory cycle turning from inventory accumulation to de - stocking and the production capacity cycle entering the incremental release stage, the probability of a weak peak season before the double festivals increases, and the spot price is still in the process of finding the bottom [2][3] - The LH2511 contract in the futures market is currently in a situation of high - capacity realization, high inventory, and high premium. It is temporarily anchored at the self - breeding and self - raising cost of 12,000 yuan/ton. Consider shorting the valuation of the May contract, and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (9.5 - 9.21) - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs is weakly operating. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan is 27.4 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan is 13.48 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide is 1,595 yuan/head, all remaining unchanged from last week. The supply is still loose, and the demand is weak. The average slaughter weight nationwide is 124.72KG, with a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [2] - **Futures Market**: The price of the live - pig futures LH2511 contract is weakly operating. The highest price is 13,335 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 12,770 yuan/ton, and the closing price is 12,825 yuan/ton, down from 13,255 yuan/ton last week. The basis of the LH2511 contract is 105 yuan/ton, down from 225 yuan/ton last week [2] Next Week's Market Outlook (9.22 - 9.28) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to operate weakly. In September, the supply pressure is large, and the demand has a seasonal increase. The inventory cycle is changing from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and the production capacity cycle is in the incremental release stage, so the probability of a weak peak season before the double festivals increases [3] - **Futures Market**: The LH2511 contract is currently facing high - capacity realization, high inventory, and high premium. It is temporarily anchored at 12,000 yuan/ton. The price of piglets is expected to continue to decline, and it is considered to short the valuation of the May contract. The short - term support level of the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] Key Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week's basis is 105 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 monthly spread is - 525 yuan/ton [9] - **Production and Import**: In July, the pork output is 5.011 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.4%; the pork import is 88,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.18% [12]

Group 1: Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development - The Yellow River Basin is a crucial ecological security barrier and an important area for population activities and economic development in China [1] - Since the implementation of the ecological protection and high-quality development strategy, the ecological environment quality in the Yellow River Basin has steadily improved, with significant highlights in high-quality development [1][2] - The 20th National Congress proposed optimizing the ecological protection and high-quality development mechanism in the Yellow River Basin [1] Group 2: Agricultural Development - The Yellow River Basin contributes significantly to national food security, providing 35% of the country's grain, 32% of meat, 40% of poultry eggs, and 49% of milk [2] - Grain production capacity in the Yellow River Basin has steadily increased, with grain output rising from 155 million tons in 2000 to 248 million tons in 2024 [2] - The area of high-standard farmland in the basin reached 45.07% of total arable land by 2024, supporting stable grain production [2] Group 3: Agricultural Product Advantages - The construction of specialized agricultural product advantage zones has shown significant results, with diverse agricultural product clusters established along the Yellow River [3] - In 2023, the area of high-quality strong gluten wheat in Henan reached 15 million mu, accounting for nearly 30% of the national total [3] - The brand value of Shanxi's Qinzou Yellow Millet reached 12.072 billion yuan, significantly boosting local economies [3] Group 4: Green Agricultural Development - Efforts to reduce agricultural pollution and promote green fertilizers have led to a 90% coverage rate of soil testing and formula fertilization technology in Shandong [4] - The area of ecological agriculture demonstration zones has exceeded 50, showcasing the multiple values of ecological agriculture [4] Group 5: Industrial Development and Energy Transition - The Yellow River Basin is rich in natural resources, contributing to national energy security, with coal production accounting for about 80% of the national total [7][8] - The region has made progress in green and low-carbon industrial transformation, with a focus on renewable energy sources [10] - By 2024, Inner Mongolia's renewable energy installed capacity is expected to exceed 135 million kilowatts, producing over 200 billion kilowatt-hours of green electricity [10] Group 6: Ecological Environment Changes - The water quality of the Yellow River has improved significantly, with the main stream achieving Class II water quality for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024 [13] - Water and soil loss has been effectively curbed, with the area of soil erosion reduced from 450,000 square kilometers to 245,800 square kilometers [14] Group 7: Cultural and Tourism Development - The Yellow River Basin is rich in cultural heritage, with 15 world cultural heritage sites and a significant number of intangible cultural heritage projects [18][20] - The region is developing a cultural tourism belt, promoting various themed tourism routes and enhancing regional collaboration [22][23]

Core Points - The Brazilian government aims to strengthen trade relations with Arab countries in agriculture and livestock, increasing the variety of export products [1] - Brazil's Agriculture and Livestock Minister Carlos Favaro highlighted the desire to import more key materials, primarily fertilizers, from Arab nations while also being open to purchasing other goods of interest from them [1] - Brazil is a leading exporter of halal products globally and is one of the largest exporters of halal food [1] Export Focus - The main agricultural products exported by Brazil to Arab countries include poultry, beef, sugar, corn, and honey [1] - Brazil has facilitated exports of live fertilized eggs to Saudi Arabia, Brazilian berries to Egypt, and coffee and orange juice to the UAE [1] Strategic Goals - Favaro's statements align with Brazil's strategy to diversify markets and reduce dependence on certain trade partners [1] - Brazil is actively working to "open markets, expand business relationships, and create records," with a focus on importing fertilizers and expanding the types of export products [1]

Group 1: Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development - The Yellow River Basin is a crucial ecological security barrier and an important area for population activities and economic development in China [1] - Since the implementation of the ecological protection and high-quality development strategy, the ecological environment quality in the Yellow River Basin has steadily improved, with notable highlights in energy and food security [1][2] - The 20th National Congress proposed optimizing the ecological protection and high-quality development mechanism in the Yellow River Basin [1] Group 2: Agricultural Development - The Yellow River Basin contributes significantly to national food security, accounting for 35% of the country's grain, 32% of meat, 40% of poultry eggs, and 49% of milk [2] - Grain production capacity in the Yellow River Basin has steadily increased, with grain output rising from 155 million tons in 2000 to 248 million tons in 2024 [2] - The area of high-standard farmland in the basin reached 45.07% of total arable land by 2024, with effective irrigation water utilization improving to 0.58 [2] Group 3: Agricultural Product Advantages - The construction of specialized agricultural product advantage zones has shown significant results, forming diversified agricultural product clusters along the Yellow River [3] - In 2023, Henan's high-gluten wheat area reached 15 million mu, accounting for nearly 30% of the national total [3] - Shanxi and Inner Mongolia's coarse grain industry cluster produced 6.8 million tons in 2023, representing 43% of the national total [3] Group 4: Green Agricultural Development - Efforts to reduce agricultural pollution and promote green fertilizers have led to a 90% coverage of soil testing and formula fertilization technology in Shandong [4] - The area of ecological agriculture demonstration zones exceeded 50, with carbon trading pilot areas covering over 1 million mu, achieving an annual carbon fixation of 2 million tons [4] Group 5: Industrial Development and Energy Transition - The Yellow River Basin is rich in natural resources, contributing approximately 80% of the country's raw coal output and one-third of the national oil and gas reserves [7][8] - The region has a high concentration of resource-based cities, with traditional industries like steel and chemical production dominating, leading to environmental sustainability challenges [8][9] - The transition to a low-carbon economy is underway, with significant investments in renewable energy, including a cumulative installed capacity of over 135 million kilowatts in Inner Mongolia by 2024 [10] Group 6: Ecological Restoration and Biodiversity - The water quality in the Yellow River Basin has improved significantly, with the main stream achieving Class II water quality for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024 [13] - Water and soil erosion has been effectively controlled, with the area of soil erosion reduced from 450,000 square kilometers to 245,800 square kilometers [14] - Biodiversity is gradually recovering, with the number of bird species in the Yellow River Delta increasing from 187 to 373 [15] Group 7: Cultural and Tourism Development - The Yellow River Basin is rich in cultural heritage, with 15 world cultural heritage sites and a significant number of intangible cultural heritage projects [18][20] - The region is developing a cultural tourism belt, promoting various themed tourism routes and enhancing regional collaboration [22] - Innovative cultural IPs are being developed to enhance the domestic and international influence of Yellow River culture [23]