Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of urea are in a gradually weakening supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to the sentiment reversal of the urea 09 contract. The urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern before entering the agricultural off - season. The weak expectation of urea is gradually reflected in the 09 contract, and the price is expected to decline [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Some enterprises had maintenance this cycle, including Shandong Runyin Biological Chemical, Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer Industry, Shaanxi Shanhua Coal Chemical, Wushi Petrochemical, and Shanxi Tianze Coal Chemical. Enterprises that resumed production this cycle were Henan Jinkong Tianqing Coal Chemical, Shandong Union Chemical, and Shandong Runyin Biological Chemical. Next week, the daily urea production will be around 193,000 tons [4]. Inventory - As of April 16, 2025, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises in China was 906,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72,500 tons, and the inventory of major ports in China was 112,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons [4]. Demand - In the agricultural sector, the northern agriculture is in a stagnant stage, and the fertilizer use in the southern rice - growing areas is following up in stages. However, due to poor rainfall, the agricultural demand replenishment has slowed down. In the industrial sector, some small factories in the compound fertilizer industry face the problem of insufficient orders and shut down, but there is still phased demand. Compound fertilizer factories still need to replenish raw materials to fulfill previous orders. In the short term, the demand side will still follow up based on rigid demand [4]. Spot - On Sunday this week, the price in Shandong was 1,800 (05 basis + 27), and in Henan was 1,790 (05 basis + 17). The spot trading of urea improved on Friday, and both spot and futures rebounded during the day. But the spot trading returned to light this weekend, and the grass - roots level in the northern region is still stagnant, with prices expected to decline [5]. Strategy - Before entering the agricultural off - season, urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern. The current fundamentals of urea are in a gradually weakening supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to the sentiment reversal of the urea 09 contract [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea supply is expected to increase with the planned resumption of production by 3 parking enterprises and no planned maintenance by enterprises in the coming week. The weekly average daily output is estimated to rise from 19.86 million tons to 20.00 million tons [6]. - Agricultural demand for urea continues to advance, with fertilizer use in the rice - growing regions and later in the Northeast region starting successively. However, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate has declined slightly, and the consumption of urea for thermal power denitration has decreased with the rise in temperature [6]. - Urea enterprise inventory has been rising due to the weakening of downstream industrial demand and the short - term gap in agricultural demand. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 90.62 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.25 million tons (+8.70%) [6]. - Urea prices are expected to stabilize, and production profits are expected to recover. For example, the production profit of urea factories using the fixed - bed process in Shanxi is expected to increase from 250 yuan/ton to 280 yuan/ton [6]. - In the futures market, after the main contract shifted from UR05 to UR09, the price of the 09 contract was pressured by short - side active position - increasing. Looking ahead, as production increases, supply will be more abundant, and demand is expected to increase with the arrival of the peak season for summer corn fertilizer production in the Huanghuaihai region. However, the view of demand over - consumption in the market may suppress the 09 contract [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea and Related Product Prices - Domestic urea spot prices are presented for different regions such as Henan, Shanxi (small and large particles), and Sichuan from 2021 - 2025 [9][10]. - International urea prices and spreads are shown, including FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East, as well as the port - collection profit of small - particle urea in Shandong factories and the cost difference between the Middle East and Shandong factory port - collection from 2021 - 2025 [12][13]. - Unit nitrogen element prices and spreads are provided, including the price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei, ammonium chloride in Henan, and the spreads between liquid ammonia and urea, and between urea and ammonium chloride from 2021 - 2025 [15][16]. - Phosphorus and potassium fertilizer prices are given, including the prices of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, 60% potassium fertilizer, and 62% port potassium fertilizer in Hubei from 2021 - 2025 [18][19]. - Urea futures basis and inter - month spreads are presented, including the price of the urea futures 05 contract, its basis, and the 5 - 9 spread from 2020 - 2025 [21][22][23] 3.2 Urea Supply - Domestic urea production data is provided, including weekly average daily output, cumulative output since the beginning of the year, weekly average daily output of natural - gas - based and coal - based urea from 2021 - 2025 [27][28]. - Coal prices and urea profits are shown, including the prices of anthracite lump and bituminous coal, as well as the production profits of fixed - bed process in Shanxi and new - process in Henan from 2021 - 2025 [29][30]. - Urea factory inventory and apparent consumption data are presented, including enterprise inventory, enterprise - perspective daily average apparent consumption, enterprise urea order volume, and domestic daily average apparent consumption from 2021 - 2025 [32][33] 3.3 Urea Demand - Compound fertilizer data is provided, including the compound fertilizer enterprise's operating rate, inventory, import volume, export volume, and net export volume from 2021 - 2025 [37][38]. - Compound fertilizer upstream data is presented, including the weekly output of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate, domestic supply volume, and cumulative supply volume from 2021 - 2025 [39][40]. - Another set of compound fertilizer upstream data shows the operating rate of domestic potassium fertilizer, port potassium fertilizer inventory, domestic supply volume, and cumulative supply volume from 2021 - 2025 [42][43]. - Melamine data is provided, including weekly output, price, price - to - urea ratio, and domestic net retention volume from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - Urea export data is presented, including monthly export volume and cumulative export volume from 2021 - 2025 [48][49] 3.4 Urea Inventory - Urea inventory data is provided, including enterprise inventory, port inventory, the sum of enterprise and port inventory, and urea warehouse receipts from 2021 - 2025 [50][51]

1）新洋丰 （睿璞投资参与公司分析师会议） 调研纪要：2024年新洋丰实现营收155.63亿元，同比增长3.07%，归母净利润13.15亿，同比增长 8.99%。复合肥销量435.71万吨，同比增长8.7%，其中新型复合肥销量138.00万吨，同比增长22.93%， 主要受益于消费升级和规模种植群体需求。磷矿石价格高位，毛利率受压制，未来磷矿产出增加将提升 毛利率。公司在西北大区投建三个基地，提升供应能力和知名度，降低运输成本。中小产能退出市场， 头部企业市占率提升。经营性现金流下降因销售节奏差异，2024年末存货增加8亿。未来资本开支项目 为夷陵项目和莲花山矿。 根据市场公开信息及4月18日披露的机构调研信息，知名私募睿璞投资近期对1家上市公司进行了调研， 相关名单如下： 机构简介： 广东睿璞投资管理有限公司是国内研究能力强、激励制度领先的私募基金管理公司，成立于2015年8月 11日，注册资本1000万人民币，创始人为国内著名基金经理蔡海洪先生。与资本市场上众多的资产管理 者相比，我们团队的独特之处在于热爱投资、践行纯粹的价值投资、专注于能力圈、坚持独立判断、保 持勤奋和专业精神、坚守诚信尽责理念。我们以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 15.563 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.315 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.99% increase [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.56% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 19.04% [2] - The company's net profit for Q4 2024 was 202 million yuan, down 6.52% year-on-year and down 46.11% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The adjusted net profit after excluding non-recurring items was 1.241 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.75% [2] Group 2: Product Sales and Market Position - The company's phosphate and compound fertilizer business generated a revenue of 14.739 billion yuan in 2024, with an 8.3% increase in sales volume to approximately 5.49 million tons [3] - The sales revenue for phosphate, conventional compound fertilizer, and new-type compound fertilizer were 3.556 billion yuan, 6.913 billion yuan, and 4.269 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +16.5%, -8.0%, and +16.5% [3] - The sales volume of new-type compound fertilizer reached 1.38 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.6% from 2018 to 2024 [3] - In 2024, new-type compound fertilizer accounted for 31.7% of total sales volume and 38.2% of sales revenue [3] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for the phosphate and compound fertilizer business improved by 1.6 percentage points to 16.7% due to the increased sales proportion of new-type compound fertilizers and stabilized upstream raw material prices [3] - The sales, research and development, and financial expense ratios increased by 0.19 percentage points, 0.48 percentage points, and 0.10 percentage points respectively, while the management expense ratio decreased by 0.02 percentage points [3] Group 4: Industry Integration and Capacity Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company had a total production capacity of 10.28 million tons per year for various high-concentration phosphate and compound fertilizers, along with 900,000 tons per year for phosphate rock [4] - The company is constructing a new project with a total investment of approximately 9.6 billion yuan, which includes a capacity of 1.5 million tons per year for ore selection and various other phosphate-related products [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][19]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.563 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.07%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.315 billion yuan, up 8.99% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights the steady increase in sales of phosphate compound fertilizers and the rising proportion of new-type fertilizers, which have contributed to improved gross margins [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to a total of 376 million yuan, which represents 28.63% of the annual net profit [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the phosphate compound fertilizer segment generated a revenue of 14.74 billion yuan, with production and sales volumes of 6.407 million tons and 5.486 million tons, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 15.4% and 8.3% [9]. - The gross margin for the phosphate compound fertilizer segment was recorded at 16.66%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points year-on-year, with new-type fertilizers achieving a gross margin of 21.22% [9]. - The company has invested in new projects, including a 150,000-ton water-soluble fertilizer and a 300,000-ton acid residue fertilizer project, enhancing its integrated supply chain advantages [9]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 17.037 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.5% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.643 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 24.9% [5]. - The report provides a target price of 18.34 yuan for 2025, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral, and it is expected that the urea market will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Downstream demand has weakened, causing the price of urea to decline continuously [1] - The supply - side pressure has increased as previously shut - down urea enterprises gradually resume production, while downstream replenishment has slowed down, leading to a decrease in overall orders and an increase in enterprise inventory [3] - The cost of coal - based and gas - based production has fluctuated slightly. The decline in urea prices has led to lower production profits, but cost support is still acceptable [3] - Agricultural fertilizer use has entered an off - season, with slow fertilizer preparation for southern rice and scattered agricultural demand. Industrial demand in the compound fertilizer and panel industries has seen a slight decline in the operating rate, and rigid demand has advanced steadily [3] - With the domestic export policy remaining tight, port inventory has fluctuated slightly [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - The report presents graphs of Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [8][9][11][15][17] 3.2 Urea Production - Graphs of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume are provided, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [20][27] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report shows graphs of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [23][31][34] 3.4 Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - Graphs of urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, relevant price differences, urea export profit, and disk export profit are presented, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [36][39][42][45][48] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Graphs of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days are provided, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [55][56][57] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes graphs of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [60][61][64]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company Overview - The company discussed is Xin Yang Feng, a player in the fertilizer industry, particularly focusing on compound fertilizers and new types of fertilizers. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - In 2024, Xin Yang Feng achieved revenue of 15.563 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.07% [2] - The company reported a net profit of 1.315 billion yuan, up 9% year-on-year [2] - Sales volumes for various fertilizers were as follows: - Conventional compound fertilizers: 1.129 million tons, up 6.6% - New type compound fertilizers: 2.977 million tons, up 3.2% - Other compound fertilizers: 1.38 million tons, up 22.9% [1][2] Market Dynamics - The demand from downstream customers remains rigid, unaffected by international export pressures [3] - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, with Xin Yang Feng's market share at approximately 9%, with potential to reach 18% [3][10] - The company’s compound fertilizer business operates on a cash transaction basis, resulting in low accounts receivable [3] Product Insights - New type fertilizers have shown a significant annual growth rate of 16.6% since 2018, with expectations for continued growth due to increasing penetration and consumer upgrades [1][4] - The profitability of new type fertilizers is expected to recover faster than conventional fertilizers due to their appeal to price-insensitive economic crop farmers [1][4] Regional Development - The Northwest region (including Xinjiang and Gansu) is expected to significantly contribute to future revenue, with the company establishing three subsidiaries to enhance local supply capabilities and reduce transportation costs [5][6] - The revenue contribution from the Northwest region is anticipated to exceed the current 8% [6] Phosphate Mining Projects - Progress on phosphate mining projects is influenced by external factors, with specific production timelines yet to be determined [7][8] - The company is optimistic about the eventual success of phosphate mining efforts, although the timeline remains uncertain [8] Financial Strategy - The company does not plan to adjust the conversion price of its convertible bonds [3][13] - Future capital expenditures will focus on projects including the Yining project and associated phosphate mining [3][13] - A commitment to increase the dividend payout ratio to at least 40% post-maturity is noted [14] Long-term Outlook - The company positions itself as a long-term competitor, focusing on sustainable growth rather than short-term gains [16] - There is significant room for recovery in gross margins compared to 2018 levels, with expectations for sales growth as the industry stabilizes [16] Additional Important Insights - The increase in inventory by 800 million yuan is attributed to rising raw material prices and proactive stocking by downstream distributors [11] - The collaboration with local governments for phosphate resources is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in securing mining rights [12][15]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a stable performance in 2024, with total revenue of 3.313 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 409 million yuan, a significant increase of 57.67% [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The company maintained robust performance across its business lines, with fertilizer manufacturing, phosphate mining, and new energy materials producing 771,500 tons, 1,400,300 tons, and 3,200 tons respectively, and generating revenues of 2.602 billion yuan, 706 million yuan, and 50 million yuan [2] - The compound fertilizer, accounting for 76.60% of revenue, experienced a revenue decline of 7.41%, yet maintained market share due to technological innovation and market positioning [2] - The phosphate mining business saw a revenue increase of 81.62%, becoming a core driver of the company's growth, supported by strategic investments in scarce phosphate resources [2] Group 2: Financial Metrics - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 548 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120.31%, attributed to increased sales collections and reduced payments to suppliers [3][4] - The financial expenses increased due to changes in financing methods, while sales, management, and R&D expense ratios saw slight declines [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is transitioning from a traditional fertilizer supplier to a planting service operator, leveraging a "product + data + service" model to create a new agricultural service ecosystem [4] - The core platform, the Agricultural Finance APP, integrates various digital functions and has seen user growth, indicating a successful digital transformation [4] - The company aims to enhance user engagement through a nationwide service network and value-added services, positioning itself for growth in the smart agriculture sector [4] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company anticipates continued growth in net profit, projecting 838 million yuan, 972 million yuan, and 1.093 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11.0, 9.5, and 8.4 times [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company XinYangFeng (000902) reported a revenue of 15.563 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.07% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.315 billion yuan, marking an increase of 8.99% compared to the previous year [1] - The basic earnings per share (EPS) stood at 1.05 yuan, which is a 5.00% increase year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) to all shareholders, with no bonus shares or capital reserve transfers [1]

Core Insights - Urea, known as "the food of food," is crucial for China's agricultural sector, with the country being the largest producer and consumer globally, accounting for over 30% of the world's production [1] - The volatility of urea prices has been significant, with annual fluctuations exceeding 40% from 2020 to 2024, impacting both agricultural enterprises and farmers [1] - The introduction of urea futures in August 2019 has provided a stabilizing mechanism for the industry, allowing companies to manage risks more effectively [1][2] Group 1: Small Enterprises - A small enterprise in Anhui, previously struggling with urea procurement, successfully reduced its total procurement cost by 72.7 yuan/ton through futures contracts, highlighting the transformative impact of financial instruments [2] - The successful hedging experience has empowered small enterprises to take control of their operations, shifting from a reactive to a proactive approach in managing costs [2][3] Group 2: Leading Enterprises - In 2024, urea prices experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from 2400 yuan/ton to 1600 yuan/ton, yet leading companies like Yuntu Holdings managed to stabilize their operations by locking in profits through futures [3] - Yuntu Holdings has established a comprehensive risk management system, utilizing futures for cost locking, production guidance, and profit stabilization [3][4] Group 3: Industry Transformation - The urea industry is undergoing a "basis revolution," with pricing now influenced by futures rather than regional markets, enhancing pricing efficiency and reducing negotiation conflicts [4][5] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has been instrumental in supporting industry leaders and financial institutions to engage with the futures market, promoting the use of basis trading to stabilize prices and supply [5][6] - The collaboration between ZCE and industry players has led to a significant increase in the adoption of basis trading, improving the overall efficiency of the urea market [6]