Group 1 - In July, urea prices experienced a spike followed by a decline due to macroeconomic factors, with expectations of maintaining volatility in August as fundamentals become crucial [1] - High supply remains the primary pressure on urea prices, with daily production exceeding 190,000 tons, marking a historical high compared to previous years [4] - As of August 7, urea enterprise inventory reached 783,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week, indicating sustained high supply levels [4] Group 2 - Demand for compound fertilizers is expected to improve in August, becoming the main driver of demand as production ramps up for the autumn season, with compound fertilizer operating rates rising to approximately 34%, a 14 percentage point increase from previous lows [5] - Recent adjustments in export policies have allowed for partial exports of urea to India, with price floors set at $470/ton for small granules and $490/ton for large granules, potentially providing support to the market [6] - The raw material side remains relatively strong, with coal prices increasing from around 620 yuan/ton to 675 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.87%, which may lead to increased production costs for urea [7] - Overall, despite high supply acting as a key suppressive factor, support from raw materials, domestic demand, and exports may lead to a "top-down, bottom-up" volatile market for urea in August [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the urea industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term, medium - term, and long - term amplitudes are expected to be between - 5% and 5% [4][84] 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is influenced by a mix of long and short factors. Macro - level factors, cost, and export prospects are positive, while domestic demand is negative. Therefore, the market is expected to oscillate [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Urea production was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons (1.94% week - on - week). The weekly average daily production was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 3700 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 81.98%, a decrease of 1.62% week - on - week. Some provinces saw production and capacity utilization changes. Overall, the supply factor is neutral [4] - **Demand**: The urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Shandong Linyi was 930 tons, a decrease of 200 tons (17.70% week - on - week). The pre - received order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.53 days, an increase of 0.41 days (6.70% week - on - week). The demand factor is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The port sample inventory was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (2.03% week - on - week). The total enterprise inventory was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 29,700 tons (3.24% week - on - week). The inventory factor is neutral [4] - **Basis/Spread**: The UR spread had a narrow - range oscillation this week, and the factor is neutral [4] - **Profit**: The theoretical profit of urea sample enterprises had a narrow - range fluctuation. The theoretical profit of coal - fired fixed - bed process was - 167 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), that of the new coal - water slurry process was 282 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week), and that of the gas - fired process was - 185 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week). The profit factor is bullish [4] - **Valuation**: The full cost of the fixed - bed process is about 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton, and that of the new coal gasification process is around 1400 - 1500 yuan/ton. The valuation factor is neutral [4] - **Macro and Policy**: There is an expectation of anti - involution policy, and the cost - side support is relatively strong. The macro and policy factor is bullish [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, also wait and see [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The domestic urea market first rose and then declined this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong dropped to 1740 - 1780 yuan/ton, with the average price decreasing by 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. After the export policy was announced, the market trading sentiment cooled down, and the short - term market may decline slightly again [6] 3.3 Urea Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Supply Data**: The report presents data on daily urea production, weekly production of large and small particles, production from coal and natural gas sources, and the capacity utilization rate over multiple years [28][30] - **Downstream Agricultural Demand**: Data on corn, wheat, and rice prices, as well as pre - received order days, compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, and compound fertilizer prices are provided [45][48] - **Downstream Industrial Demand**: Information about the capacity utilization rate and production of formaldehyde, production of melamine, capacity utilization rate of melamine, national building materials and home furnishing index, and vehicle urea price is presented [54][58] - **Inventory and Export Situation**: Data on factory inventory, port inventory, Guangxi inventory, downstream enterprise inventory, compound fertilizer inventory, and export volume are shown [65][71] - **Cost and Profit**: The report provides data on fixed - bed cost, coal - water slurry cost, natural gas - fired cost, and their corresponding profits over multiple years [77]

金融界8月11日消息，有投资者在互动平台向新洋丰提问：二季度作为公司传统旺季，为何营收反而同 比出现了6%的下滑。具体是销量出现下滑，还是产品价格下跌导致？ 公司回答表示：尊敬的投资者，您好！今年的春肥行情集中在一季度，而去年同3月东北气温低，春肥 销售延迟，造成了去年4月份基数高，今年4月份的量偏低。另外，5、6月因为原材料价格回调，而夏季 肥和秋季肥出现了销售延迟，复合肥需求刚性，经销商会在三季度需求爆发时采购。感谢您对公司的关 注！责任编辑：磐石 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Xin Yang Feng (000902) indicated that this year's spring fertilizer sales were concentrated in the first quarter, contrasting with last year's delayed sales due to low temperatures in Northeast China in March [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Last year's high sales in April were attributed to a high base effect, while this year's sales volume in April was lower [1] - The sales of summer and autumn fertilizers were delayed in May and June due to a decline in raw material prices [1] Group 2: Market Demand - The demand for compound fertilizers remains rigid, and distributors are expected to increase purchases during the third quarter when demand surges [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has implemented new tariffs on imported goods from multiple trade partners, effective August 7, impacting the fertilizer market significantly [1] - Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, major suppliers of phosphate fertilizers to the U.S., will face a 10% tariff, while Jordan and Israel will incur a 15% tariff [1] - Saudi Arabia exported 519,000 tons of ammonium phosphate to the U.S. from January to May 2025, accounting for 54.7% of total U.S. ammonium phosphate imports [1] Group 2 - Trinidad and Tobago, the second-largest ammonia supplier to the U.S. after Canada, will face a 15% tariff, but the market impact is expected to be limited [2] - Algeria's granular urea will be subject to a 30% tariff, while Nigeria will face a 15% tariff, both being significant suppliers to the U.S. fertilizer market [1] - The price assessment for diammonium phosphate in New Orleans is between $785 and $800 per short ton, while urea is priced at $455 to $465 per short ton [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has implemented new tariffs on imported goods from multiple trade partners, effective August 7, impacting the fertilizer market significantly [1] - Major suppliers of phosphate fertilizers to the U.S., including Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, will face a 10% tariff, while Jordan and Israel will incur a 15% tariff [1] - Saudi Arabia exported 519,000 tons of ammonium phosphate to the U.S. from January to May 2025, accounting for 54.7% of total U.S. ammonium phosphate imports [1] Group 2 - Trinidad and Tobago, a key source of ammonia for the U.S., will face a 15% tariff, but the market impact is expected to be limited due to the relatively low rate [1] - Algeria's granular urea will be subject to a 30% tariff, while Nigeria will face a 15% tariff, both being significant suppliers to the U.S. fertilizer market [1] - The new tariffs may lead to shifts in trade flows, requiring affected countries to adapt to these changes [1] Group 3 - Canada, Mexico, and China are subject to separate regulations and negotiations, with Canada’s potash trade governed by the USMCA, thus unaffected by the new tariffs [2] - Brazil will face a total tariff rate of 50% on certain exports, but some fertilizer products have been exempted from these tariffs after negotiations [2] - As of July 31, 2023, the assessed prices for ammonium phosphate in New Orleans range from $785 to $800 per short ton, while urea prices are between $455 and $465 per short ton [2]

长江期货尿素周报： 上下有限 区间震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 尿素：上下有限 区间震荡 01 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 1 市场变化：价格：尿素周度价格先强后弱，8月8日尿素2509合约收盘价1728元/吨，较上周上调19元/吨，涨幅 1.11%。尿素现货河南市场日均价1771元/吨，较上周上调17元/吨，涨幅0.97%。基差：尿素主力基差震荡运行， 周度基差运行区间-8-45元/吨，8月8日河南市场主力基差43元/吨，较上周基本持平，期间8月5日收盘基差-8元/吨。 价差：尿素9-1价差走弱，表现为01合约升水，8月8日9-1价差-23元/吨，周度运行区间-23——-10元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率82.72%，较上周降低2.21个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率75.47%， 较上周降低3.15个百分点，尿素日均产量18.98万吨。成本端无烟煤市场价格稳中偏强调整，下游用煤企业原料煤采 购仍以刚需为主，对高价煤接受度一般。截至8月7日，山西晋城S0.4-0.5无烟洗小块含税价820-890元 ...

公司第二季度业绩出现显著好转。尿素和三聚氰胺的售价环比分别增长10%和11%。同时，得益于销售 网络的扩张，复合肥和三聚氰胺的销量环比分别增长29%和20%。 中国心连心化肥公布，上半年公司收入约126.66亿元，同比增长5%；但受产品售价降幅大于成本降幅 影响，母公司拥有人应占溢利约5.99亿元，同比减少12.77%。其中，尿素产品毛利大幅下滑是主要原 因。 ...

Core Insights - The "Shangchu Wuyou" project has provided risk management services for 4.95 million tons of urea to 99 enterprises over five years, covering 23 provinces in China, including 13 major grain-producing provinces, establishing itself as a benchmark for the futures market serving the real economy [1][2] Group 1: Project Achievements - The project has optimized its support structure, increasing warehouse fee support and transaction fee limits, creating a comprehensive support system of "warehouse + factory warehouse" and "futures + options" [2] - The project has fostered a positive atmosphere for comprehensive participation among reserve enterprises, with nearly all qualified enterprises now involved [3] - The number of warehouse receipts has significantly increased, enhancing the project’s role in stabilizing market price expectations and ensuring compliance with national fertilizer storage requirements [3][4] Group 2: Corporate Practices - Enterprises like Zhongnong Group have successfully utilized the project to reduce registration costs and improve the flow of reserve urea in the market, aligning with national market integration goals [4] - Anhui Huilong Agricultural Group reported a reduction in losses of nearly 10 million yuan through participation in the project, receiving close to 1 million yuan in project funding [5] - The project has provided critical support for enterprises to manage price volatility, with a correlation of over 95% between futures and spot prices for urea [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The project has evolved from providing 160,000 yuan in subsidies to over 10 million yuan, covering 80% of national fertilizer reserves, indicating strong support from various stakeholders [9] - Future plans include optimizing delivery layouts and enhancing innovative models like "insurance + futures" to ensure the project continues to support farmers and enterprises effectively [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the urea price has adjusted during the off-season in May and June, leading to a delay in stocking by distributors and usage by farmers, but the compound fertilizer industry remains a necessity, with delayed demand expected to be concentrated in the third quarter [1] - The price gap for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) between domestic and international markets is significant, and most of the company's phosphate fertilizer exports are expected to be realized in the third quarter [1]