高盛策略师警告称欧洲股市或许对关税风险过于自满。 ...

智通财经7月14日电，摩根士丹利获得沙特批准做市业务。 ...

摩根士丹利获得沙特批准做市业务。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists report that tariffs may have increased prices for goods with supply chains extending overseas, such as home goods, entertainment, and communication products [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Inflation Impact - Last month, airfare prices may have rebounded, but Goldman Sachs predicts that due to expected declines in used car prices and stable new car prices, the overall core inflation rate for June may be approximately 0.23% month-on-month [1] - The team anticipates that the monthly inflation rate for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will range between 0.3% and 0.4% in the coming months due to the potential severe impacts of tariffs [1]

4月以来，一度高歌猛进的黄金市场，其价格驱动逻辑正悄然生变。一度由投机头寸主导的上涨行情已然降温，取而代之的是以央行为代表的、更具结构 性与粘性的长期资金，这为金价提供了更为稳固的支撑基础。 据追风交易台消息，高盛在13日的研报中表示，金价自4月以来在约3200-3450美元/盎司的区间内盘整，但其背后的资金构成已截然不同。此前一度处于 历史高位的投机性头寸，在4月1日及相关的追加保证金要求后大幅平仓。目前，管理基金的净多头头寸已回归至长期平均水平。 这一变化对市场意义重大。投机性资金的退潮，意味着因强制平仓导致金价大幅下跌的风险已经降低。同时，这也为更稳定的长期资本入场创造了空间， 尤其是交易所交易基金（ETF）的潜在流入和各国央行持续的购金需求，正逐步成为支撑金价的核心力量。 上周后半段，受贸易紧张局势重燃的消息影响，黄金价格上扬，周五收于3355美元/盎司，再次印证了其作为防御性对冲和避险资产的角色。高盛预测， 到2025年底金价将升至3700美元/盎司，到2026年中期将达到4000美元/盎司。 投机热潮退去，市场基础更稳固 黄金市场正在经历一次重要的"换手"。报告指出，2024年以来一度将金价推至高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the prevailing bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, with major Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warning of a new bear market for the dollar, driven by both cyclical and structural factors [1][6][7]. Group 1: Dollar Performance and Market Sentiment - The US dollar index has experienced its weakest performance in the first half of the year since the Nixon administration ended the gold standard, with a decline of approximately 10% year-to-date [1][7]. - Major financial institutions predict that the dollar may enter a bear market trajectory until at least the end of 2026, influenced by the chaotic trade policies of the Trump administration [2][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - Morgan Stanley's forex strategy team recommends establishing short positions on the dollar and suggests going long on currencies such as the euro, Australian dollar, and Norwegian krone, which are seen as cyclical strong currencies [5][8]. - The report emphasizes that despite some short-term technical indicators suggesting a potential rebound for the dollar, the overall bearish trend remains intact due to accumulating fundamental disadvantages [5][7]. Group 3: Structural and Cyclical Factors - The dollar's mid-term bearish outlook is attributed to factors such as slowing US economic growth, narrowing interest rate differentials, high dollar valuations, and increasing fiscal deficits [7][8]. - The report highlights that trade policy uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs, pose significant risks to the dollar's future performance, potentially undermining investor confidence [11][12]. Group 4: Trade Risks and Tariff Policies - The potential for renewed tariffs under the Trump administration is identified as a critical risk factor that could negatively impact the dollar and the broader US economy [11][12]. - The report warns that if widespread tariffs are implemented, it could lead to a significant loss of confidence in dollar assets, prompting a shift towards defensive currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by recent economic data and geopolitical events, highlighting a shift in market expectations and internal debates within the Fed regarding monetary policy [1][2][4][9]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The June CPI data showed a decline in core inflation for the third consecutive month, signaling a potential easing of inflationary pressures [1]. - Goldman Sachs' report predicts that the Fed will not cut rates in July but may do so in September, October, and December, with a total of two additional cuts expected in 2026 [2]. - Wage growth is slowing, and tourism demand is weak, contributing to a decrease in inflation expectations [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The Fed is experiencing internal divisions, with some officials advocating for immediate rate cuts while others express concerns about tariffs leading to sustained inflation [7]. - Christopher Waller, a key Fed official, has suggested increasing the proportion of short-term Treasury bills in the Fed's asset portfolio to enhance flexibility in monetary policy [4][5]. - Waller's stance on rate cuts is not politically motivated, emphasizing the need for a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet from $6.7 trillion to $5.8 trillion [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - The announcement of significant tariffs by the Trump administration on imports from several countries has created uncertainty in global markets, impacting economic forecasts [8]. - Geopolitical risks, including events in Ukraine, are becoming increasingly relevant in the Fed's economic assessments and interest rate decisions [9].

Group 1: Market Overview - The international spot gold price opened at $3334.45, reached a high of $3368.57, and closed at $3355.09, marking an increase of $20.09 or 0.60% for the week [1] - The US dollar index opened at 96.97 points, peaked at 97.96 points, and closed at 97.85 points, up 0.90% for the week [3] - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 6869.55 points, reached a high of 7062.24 points, and closed at 7036.32 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 2.48% [3] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Silver price increased by 3.97% to $38.38, while platinum rose by 0.60% to $1399.35, and palladium surged by 7.16% to $1216.00 [3] - Platinum showed strong mid-term fluctuations at high levels, while gold experienced a rebound after initial declines [3] Group 3: Economic and Policy Context - Goldman Sachs warned that the dollar may soon exhibit characteristics of a "risk currency," influenced by trade tariffs, concerns over Federal Reserve independence, and increasing fiscal risks [7] - The dollar index suffered a decline of over 10% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance in 52 years [7] - The Trump administration's renewed tariff threats have complicated the Federal Reserve's policy path, potentially delaying interest rate cuts [9][10] Group 4: Investment Trends - Global gold ETF inflows surged by $38 billion in the first half of the year, with total assets rising by 41% to $383 billion [10] - The North American region contributed the most to gold ETF inflows, followed by Asia and Europe [10] - Despite the dollar's challenges, its status as a reserve currency remains intact, with a 58% market share [10]

2025年盛夏的十字路口：全球金融在深夜的抉择 高盛的紧急预测与降息逻辑 世界经济的巨轮驶入2025年盛夏的十字路口，每个深夜传来的消息都可能成为改变航向的海风。货币政策、地缘博弈与国家战略在历史的节点上交汇，世界 永远在深夜的消息与黎明的市场反应间，重塑它的面貌。这一关键时刻，由7月7日深夜爆发的四重奏拉开序幕，最终在7月9日高盛的紧急报告中达到高潮。 金融风暴前的预兆：7月7日深夜的四重奏 7月7日，全球金融市场被四大重磅消息接连震动，如同深夜惊雷，预示着风暴的来临。首先，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发布关税威胁，任何与金砖国 家"反美政策"保持一致的国家将面临额外10%的关税。这道深夜推文如同闪电划破国际经贸夜空，全球贸易市场瞬间紧张起来。同时，美国政府宣布将于当 日中午公布与贸易伙伴的关税信函或协议，为8月1日起最高达70%的惩罚性关税铺路。 几乎与此同时，乌克兰战场上演了开战以来最大规模的无人机袭击。数百架无人机如同复仇蜂群，袭击了俄罗斯境内16个地区，从南部罗斯托夫到西部卡卢 加，从西北部圣彼得堡到首都莫斯科，甚至远至540公里外的克拉斯诺扎沃茨克化工厂——这座为俄国防部生产多管火箭炮和弹药的关键设 ...

Core Insights - The forum discussed strategies for Chinese companies to adapt to the reshaping of the global economic landscape due to geopolitical challenges, trade barriers, financial volatility, and technological changes [2][3] Group 1: Global Economic Landscape - The pressure of global supply chain restructuring highlights China's strong production, logistics, and human resources, which can still provide competitive advantages [3] - The "dual circulation" strategy emphasizes the importance of enhancing negotiation skills with the world and identifying systematic opportunities for international expansion [3] - The World Bank indicates that since 2004, the share of global goods and services trade in global GDP has steadily increased, showing that globalization has not halted [6] Group 2: Digital Currency and Regulation - The U.S. and global regulatory frameworks are evolving, particularly with the introduction of the U.S. Stablecoin Innovation Act and Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulations, which may diminish the decentralized nature of stablecoins [4] - The development of stablecoins by the U.S. is seen as a strategy to reinforce the dominance of the dollar in the global economy [4][5] - There is a call for China to accelerate legislation and regulation regarding digital currencies and stablecoins to enhance the internationalization of the renminbi [4][5] Group 3: Localization and Global Strategy - Companies must implement localization strategies to succeed in overseas markets, as evidenced by Ganfeng Lithium's approach to respecting local cultures and sharing benefits [7] - The integration of new technologies like artificial intelligence with China's manufacturing advantages is crucial for addressing challenges in overseas operations [7] - Key experiences for state-owned enterprises in international expansion include global resource allocation, differentiation, compliance, and low-carbon transformation [8] Group 4: Economic Challenges and Policy - Domestic economic challenges in China include a decline in import ratios, fluctuating real estate markets, and a need for more proactive monetary policies to stimulate investment and consumption [6] - The future of China's economy relies not only on macroeconomic policy adjustments but also on the ability of enterprises to find differentiated paths in the new phase of globalization [8]