晨会纪要（2025/12/18） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.18） 金融工程研究 主要指数全部震荡调整，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 行业研究 2025 年工业机器人产量有望突破 70 万台——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/12/18） 金融工程研究 主要指数全部震荡调整，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（12 月 10 日-12 月 16 日）A 股市场主要指数全部震荡调整，其中创业板指跌幅最大，下跌了 4.29%； 上证 50 跌幅最小，下跌了 1.44%。此外，上证综指下跌 2.17%，深证成指下跌 2.73%，科创 50 下跌 3.99%， 沪深 300 下跌 2.19%，中证 500 下跌 1.69%。 12 月 16 日，沪深两市两融余额为 24, ...

Core Insights - The meeting led by Liu Kun emphasized the importance of utilizing long-term funds and patient capital to support national development needs, particularly in the integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation - As of the end of Q3 this year, the market value of technology stocks (TMT sector, including electronics, communications, computers, and media) held by the social security fund exceeded 46.9 billion, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - This represents a significant increase of nearly 61% compared to the end of Q3 last year and more than an 18-fold increase compared to the same period in 2011, indicating strong support for technology stocks by the social security fund [1] Group 2: Long-term Holdings - The social security fund has consistently held positions in six technology stocks, including Zhongnan Media, Zhongyuan Media, Phoenix Media, Yilian Network, Sanhuan Group, and Transsion Holdings, for 24 consecutive quarters, with Transsion Holdings and Yilian Network each having a market value exceeding 1 billion at the end of the period [1] - Additionally, there are 11 other technology stocks that have been held for more than three years, with Pengding Holdings having a market value exceeding 3.2 billion at the end of the period [1] - The long-term holdings of the social security fund in technology stocks can be categorized into two types: industry-leading stocks with high dividend ratios and media stocks with high dividend yields [1]

专题：四大证券报精华 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 12月18日（星期四），今日报刊头条主要内容精华如下： 12月17日晚，凤形股份发布《发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金预案》，拟购买广东华鑫持有的白银华 鑫九和再生资源有限公司75%股权。本次交易后，白银华鑫将成为公司的控股子公司，凤形股份将实现 从传统金属制品产业向新兴绿色循环经济行业的转型升级。 最高690倍回报！沐曦投资人赚了多少？ 17日，国产GPU龙头沐曦股份登陆科创板，上市首日股价收报829.9元/股，市值为3320亿元，股价在盘 中最高触及895元/股，投资者中一签（500股）的浮盈最高可达39.5万元。五年前，沐曦有限（当时 名，后简称"沐曦"）在天使轮投后估值仅4.80亿元，如今估值已涨超690倍，单笔天使轮投资若坚守至 今，回报已达690倍。更引人注目的是，私募大佬葛卫东在上市前夕的2025年2月，精准入局，不到一年 个人账户浮盈已超110亿元。 上海证券报 中国证券报 "券商航母"合并预案出炉！中金公司、东兴证券、信达证券今日复牌 12月17日晚，中金公司与东兴证券、信达证券同步披露重大资产重组 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes China's economic resilience and strong innovation capabilities, highlighting the significance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" in guiding future economic and social development [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Strategy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focused on consolidating export-driven growth while stimulating domestic consumption and promoting green development, shifting the growth engine towards domestic consumers [2]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes "self-reliance in technology," aiming to develop key sectors such as energy, food, medicine, semiconductors, and shipping to reduce dependency risks [2][6]. - The plan aims to enhance the resilience and security of China's economic system through a dual circulation strategy, promoting domestic and international interactions [2][6]. Group 2: Innovation and Growth - Research indicates that various industries in China are prioritizing the cultivation of new productive forces, with R&D investment serving as a key indicator of policy and industry priorities [3]. - The top five industries for R&D investment in 2024 include computer, communication, and electronic equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery, automotive manufacturing, specialized equipment manufacturing, and general equipment manufacturing, reflecting a strong emphasis on innovation [3]. - China's innovation capabilities are increasingly recognized as original breakthroughs rather than mere imitation, challenging the Western narrative of China's technological development [4]. Group 3: Global Implications - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to shift the focus from labor-intensive growth to high-quality development, emphasizing innovation, green transformation, and social inclusivity [9][10]. - This transition is anticipated to create new opportunities for collaboration between China and other Global South countries in industrialization, digitalization, and green development [11]. - The article raises questions about whether other Global South countries can replicate China's leap to high-tech and high-value production without going through labor-intensive growth stages [10].

证券时报记者 陈见南 12月15日，社保基金会党组书记、理事长刘昆主持召开党组会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，研究贯彻落 实工作。会议提出，充分发挥长期资金、耐心资本作用，积极服务国家发展需要，更好支持科技创新和产业创新 深度融合。 从资产配置来看，截至今年三季度末，社保基金重仓的科技股（TMT板块，包括电子、通信、计算机和传媒四大 行业）期末市值超过469亿元，创出历史同期新高，相比去年三季度末大幅增长近61%，相比2011年同期增长18倍 多，彰显出社保基金对科技股的支持。 从行业分布来看，社保基金持有电子行业期末市值接近274亿元，在科技板块中持股市值最高。其次是计算机行 业，社保基金期末持股市值超过77亿元。另外，社保基金持有传媒、通信行业期末市值分别为73.22亿元和44.33亿 元。 从个股来看，传音控股有3只社保基金持仓，期末持股市值超过45亿元，居首。开源证券认为，公司手机产品持续 向中高端转型并拓展更多市场，非洲地区智能机渗透率提升也有望带来长期增量，公司有望凭产品多元化、业务 全球化、品类高端化保持快速增长。此外，鹏鼎控股、分众传媒、紫光国微、深南电路等多只个股社保基金持仓 市值均超过 ...

一、上市概况 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司及全体董事、高级管理人员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整、及时，没有虚假记载、误导 性陈述或重大遗漏。 经上海证券交易所审核同意，厦门优迅芯片股份有限公司（以下简称"优迅股份"、"公司"、"本公 司"或"发行人"）发行的人民币普通股股票将于2025年12月19日在上海证券交易所科创板上市，上市公 告书全文和首次公开发行股票的招股说明书在上海证券交易所网站（http://www.sse.com.cn）和符合中 国证监会规定条件网站（上海证券报：https://www.cnstock.com；中国证券报：https://www.cs.com.cn/； 证券日报：http://www.zqrb.cn；证券时报：https://www.stcn.com；经济参考网：http://www.jjckb.cn；中 国日报网：https://cn.chinadaily.com.cn；中国金融新闻网：www.financialnews.com.cn）披露，并置备于 发行人、上交所、本次发行保荐人（主承销商）中信证券股份有限公司的住所，供公众查阅。 （五）本 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The computer industry is expected to see overall performance improvement in 2025, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth, primarily due to cost-cutting measures by software companies [1][4][5] - Large-cap companies are performing better than small and mid-cap companies, demonstrating stronger cyclical resilience and earlier recovery times [1][5] - Public fund holdings in the computer sector are approximately 2.6%, indicating a significant underweight position compared to the standard allocation of 5% to 6% [1][6] AI Technology and Market Trends - AI technology is entering enterprise-level applications and integrating with software, which is expected to create a long-term bullish market lasting 2 to 3 years, although the exact timing remains uncertain [1][7] - Deepseek is driving AI technology development with its free and open-source model, offering a cost of $1-2 per million tokens, significantly lower than competitors like OpenAI and Gemini [1][8] - GPT-5.2 Pro is positioned for the enterprise market, priced at $168 per million tokens, making it suitable for large enterprises and significantly reducing costs in legal services [1][10][11] Market Dynamics and Financial Performance - The overall return in the computer sector is expected to be in the mid-range of 10% to 15%, with some stocks potentially reaching returns of 40% to 60%, although operational challenges remain [3] - The AI computing power industry chain is anticipated to face supply shortages in various segments, particularly in storage and optical components [4][27] - The rapid growth in token consumption is expected to drive demand for computing cards by 3 to 5 times [2][19] Investment Opportunities and Risks - The scaling law remains effective, with North American cloud vendors expected to reach a peak in capital expenditure in 2025 and 2026, while China will follow a year later [1][18] - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion RMB in computing power over the next three years, potentially increasing investment to ensure sustained growth [1][18] - The enterprise-level AI deployment is rapidly advancing, with significant cost reductions in private deployments [1][16] Emerging Technologies and Innovations - The development of domestic chips is progressing, with new generations supporting FP8 precision, marking a significant year for domestic computing cards in large model inference [4][20] - The AI programming landscape is seeing AI-generated code accounting for 30% to 40% of total code volume, impacting the IT industry significantly [15] - Liquid cooling technology is at a pivotal point, with expectations for market share growth and improved profitability for companies involved [36] Future Outlook - The AI computing power industry is expected to remain in a high-growth phase, with demand outpacing supply in 2026, particularly in optical components [27] - The integration of AI technologies into various sectors is anticipated to drive significant changes and create new investment opportunities [24] - The IDC industry is facing challenges due to pricing pressures from excess supply but is seeing strong demand growth, particularly in the domestic market [37] Conclusion - The computer and AI sectors are poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements and market dynamics, with investment opportunities emerging in various segments, particularly in enterprise applications and computing power infrastructure [1][24][27]

Core Insights - The report introduces a new two-dimensional framework for analyzing industry prosperity, focusing on diffusion and dispersion metrics to provide a fresh perspective on investment strategies [1][2]. - It emphasizes the importance of absolute high prosperity over marginal high prosperity, indicating that long-term perspectives yield higher returns on earnings per share (EPS) [2][16]. - The report constructs a prosperity investment effectiveness index based on quarterly year-over-year (Q-YOY) data, which shows better performance than cumulative year-over-year (C-YOY) data [2][23]. Traditional One-Dimensional Prosperity Comparison - The report critiques the traditional one-dimensional approach that uses a single profitability growth rate for each industry, which simplifies market narratives to "who is accelerating and who is declining" [2][12]. - It raises questions about the importance of single-quarter versus cumulative profitability data, concluding that single-quarter data yields better investment outcomes [2][12][16]. - The report highlights that absolute high prosperity is more significant than marginal high prosperity, as evidenced by better net value performance in absolute high prosperity groups [2][16]. Two-Dimensional Prosperity Measurement - The report proposes measuring structural prosperity through two indicators: diffusion (measuring breadth) and dispersion (measuring structural strength) [2][2]. - It notes that the diffusion index influences "positioning," while the dispersion index affects "industry allocation bias" [2][2]. - The report suggests that the dispersion index is highly correlated with China's Producer Price Index (PPI), indicating that higher dispersion often coincides with rising PPI phases [2][14]. Application of the Two-Dimensional Framework - The report discusses the strategic value of diffusion and dispersion, asserting that they can better reflect the current market state than traditional methods [2][2]. - It emphasizes the need to analyze the composition of dispersion values to understand structural market trends, particularly in technology sectors [2][21]. - The report concludes that differentiation is the foundation of effective prosperity investment, with expectations for continued upward trends in diffusion and dispersion indices [2][24]. Conclusion and Outlook - The report anticipates that both diffusion and dispersion will likely trend upward, supporting the market's beta value [2][24]. - It recommends focusing on technology sectors such as computers, communications, and advanced manufacturing, as well as cyclical resource sectors like steel and chemicals [2][24].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3870.28 points, up 1.19%, with a trading volume of 766.8 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13224.51 points, up 2.4%, with a trading volume of 1044.325 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3175.91 points, up 3.39%, with a trading volume of 495.114 billion yuan [1] - The STAR Market 50 Index closed at 1325.33 points, up 2.47%, with a trading volume of 50.2 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of both markets reached 1811.125 billion yuan, an increase of 86.946 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in sectors such as telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, insurance, precious metals, electronics, chemicals, power equipment, and media [2] - Concepts like CPO, lithium mining, optical communication modules, liquid cooling, copper cable high-speed connections, fluorine chemicals, PCB, and composite current collectors showed active trends [2] - The agriculture, defense, and liquor sectors experienced declines, with weaker trends in concepts like space stations, satellite internet, duty-free, rental sales, and grain [2] Fund Flow - The net outflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 6.73 billion yuan [3] - The ChiNext saw a net outflow of 4.067 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index experienced a net outflow of 5.145 billion yuan [4] - The telecommunications sector had the highest net inflow of main funds, amounting to 4.529 billion yuan, followed by non-ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment [4] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 2117 stocks saw net inflows of main funds, with 93 stocks receiving over 100 million yuan in net inflows [5] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Zhongji Xuchuang, with 1.426 billion yuan, followed by Xinyi Sheng, Shenghong Technology, Tianfu Communication, and others [6] - Conversely, 3043 stocks experienced net outflows, with 75 stocks seeing over 100 million yuan in net outflows [7] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Pingtan Development, with 1.459 billion yuan, followed by Yonghui Supermarket, Aerospace Development, and others [8] Institutional Activity - Institutional seats had a net buy of approximately 471 million yuan, with 16 stocks being net bought and 11 stocks being net sold [9] - The stock with the highest net buy from institutions was Juguang Technology, with about 291 million yuan [10] - The stock with the highest net sell was Yingweike, with approximately 22 million yuan, followed by Xue Ren Group, Guangxun Technology, and others [11]

厦门优迅芯片股份有限公司 首次公开发行股票科创板 上市公告书提示性公告 保荐人（主承销商）：中信证券股份有限公司 扫描二维码查阅公告全文 本公司及全体董事、高级管理人员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整、 及时，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 经上海证券交易所审核同意，厦门优迅芯片股份有限公司（以下简称"优迅 股份"、"公司"、"本公司"或"发行人"）发行的人民币普通股股票将于 2025 年 12 月 19 日在上海证券交易所科创板上市，上市公告书全文和首次公开发行股 票的招股说明书在上海证券交易所网站（http://www.sse.com.cn）和符合中国证 监会规定条件网站（上海证券报：https://www.cnstock.com；中国证券报： https://www.cs.com.cn/ ； 证 券 日 报 ： http://www.zqrb.cn ； 证 券 时 报 ： https://www.stcn.com ； 经 济 参 考 网 ： http://www.jjckb.cn ； 中 国 日 报 网 ： https://cn.chinadaily.com.cn；中国金融新闻网：www.fin ...