上证10年新高，全A历史新高，成交量有点回落。港股近期没涨，资金驱动的A股牛市还能走多远不好说。随着券商自营及 债基久期快速降久期，后续股市对债市的影响预计明显减弱，终将回归基本面。我们持续看下半年10Y国债1.6-1.8，当前全 力看多，因1）央行宽松，正carry；2）调整后对银行有配置价值；3）经济下行压力上升。要珍惜收益率2%以上的5Y资本 债及30Y国债。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 本周继续关注本轮债市调整以来平安公司债ETF（511030）回撤控制排名第一，净值相对稳健且回撤可控，可参考下表 （本轮债市调整自2025年2月10日起算）： 机构认为，盯着股市做债，导致债市阶段性受股市的影响很大。资金驱动的股票牛市没有债熊，经济复苏驱动的股票牛市 才会带来债熊。2014年四季度股债双牛，当时债基规模非常小，债券投资主要靠银行自营及理财。 | 代码 | 簡易 | 易内简称 | 托管人 | 规模(亿) | 近1周豢 | 近1周均贴 | 近1周涨跌 | 貞押宰 | 本轮词整 | 近1年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

近日，7000亿公募巨头华安基金迎来重要人事变动： 原党委书记、董事长朱学华卸任党委书记职务，由原招商基金总经理徐勇接任，预计未来将出任董事 长。 作为已经掌管华安基金11年的核心人物，朱学华的重要性不言而喻。数据统计，朱学华治理下的华安基 金，在规模上实现了跨越式增长——从接手时的600亿元出头一路飙升至2025年超过7000亿，11年时间 规模增长超过6400亿元。 朱学华的离开，让华安基金的未来充满了不确定性。据侃见财经观察，作为"老五家"的华安基金在历史 上有过多次换帅，但每一次换帅之后公司都会进入"动荡期"，尤其是2007年到2013年期间，华安基金曾 两度换帅，期间公司遭遇了核心管理层出走、投研与营销体系等困境，一直到2014年朱学华临危受命出 任董事后，华安基金才开始重新平稳发展。 当下，正值华安基金关键时刻：此前华安基金母公司国泰海通证券才刚刚完成合并，其也面临着与海富 通基金的合并问题。 虽然在规模上拥有明显优势，但鉴于海富通拥有社保基金、企业年金、养老保险基金管理人三张牌照， 其中社保牌照尤为稀缺，且牌照主体名称不得变更，这意味着"海富通"名称保留概率更大，而华安基金 则面临着被吞并的风险 ...

Group 1 - Several small and medium-sized banks in regions like Zhejiang, Guizhou, and Jilin have announced a reduction in deposit rates by 10-20 basis points, primarily to manage the pressure on net interest margins [1] - The QDII funds have become the "performance king" of the market, with the highest returns exceeding 150%, significantly outperforming A-share funds, and the total scale of public QDII funds reached approximately 680 billion yuan, a historical high [2] - Over 140 A-share companies have announced mid-term dividend plans, with total proposed dividends exceeding 100 billion yuan, indicating a trend towards cash dividends [3] Group 2 - The LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% for the one-year rate and 3.5% for the five-year rate, with experts suggesting there is still room for future downward adjustments [3] - The public REITs market has seen a decline, with the index dropping nearly 4% since August 20, and a wave of product unlocks is expected from September to December [2] - The stock ETF market has seen significant inflows, with nearly 60% of stock ETFs increasing in scale over a two-day period, totaling an increase of approximately 33.6 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - Three cosmetics companies were found to have serious defects in their production quality management systems and have been ordered to suspend production and rectify issues [5] - OpenAI reported a monthly revenue exceeding 1 billion USD for the first time in July, driven by the launch of new subscription services and the upcoming GPT-5 release, highlighting a need for increased computational power [6] - Alibaba plans to spin off its subsidiary, Zhibo Network, for an independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, retaining over 30% ownership post-split [7] Group 4 - Dalian Friendship's controlling shareholder received a warning letter from the Dalian Securities Regulatory Bureau for failing to disclose information regarding a strategic cooperation agreement, violating disclosure regulations [8] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq down 0.67% and the Dow Jones up 0.04%, amid fluctuations in tech stocks and reactions to the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes [9]

证券之星消息，8月21日大成基金管理有限公司发布《关于大成颐享稳健养老目标一年持有期混合型发 起式基金中基金(FOF)暂停申购（含定期定额申购）业务的公告》。公告中提示，为保护基金份额持有 人利益，自2025年8月21日起大成颐享稳健养老目标一年持有期混合型发起式基金中基金(FOF)暂停申购 （含定期定额申购）业务，下属分级基金调整明细如下： | 分级基金筒称 | 代码 | 是否暂停（大额）申购 | 申购限额 转入限额 完投限额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (转入转出、赎回、定投) | (元) (元) (元) | | 大成颐享稳健养老目标—年持 有混合发起式(FOF) A | 016197 | 를 | | | 大成颐享稳健养老目标—年持 有混合发起式(FOF) Y | 019795 | 를 | | 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 ...

证券之星消息，8月21日发布《工银瑞信开元利率债债券型证券投资基金2025年第二次分红公告》。本 次分红为本基金第九次分红，2025年第二次分红。公告显示，本次分红的收益分配基准日为8月8日，详 细分红方案如下： | 分级基金简称 | 代码 | 基准日基金净值 | | 分红方案 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (元) | | (元/10份) | | 工银开元利率债债券A 008539 | | | 1.09 | 0.20 | | 工银开元利率债债券C 008540 | | | 1.08 | 0.20 | | 工银开元利率债债券F 017777 | | | | | 本次分红对象为权益登记日在注册登记机构登记在册的本基金全体基金份额持有人。，权益登记日为8 月25日，现金红利发放日为8月26日。选择红利再投资的投资者，其现金红利将按2025年8月25日除息后 的基金份额净值转换为基金份额。根据财政部、国家税务总局相关规定，基金向投资者分配的基金收 益，暂免征收所得税。1、本基金本次分红免收分红手续费。 2、选择红利再投资方式的投资者其红利 所转换的基金份额免收申购费用 ...

证券之星消息，8月21日汇添富基金管理股份有限公司发布《关于汇添富鑫荣纯债债券型证券投资基金 暂停大额申购、转换转入业务的公告》。公告中提示，为保护基金份额持有人的利益，保障基金平稳运 作，根据《汇添富鑫荣纯债债券型证券投资基金基金合同》的有关规定，自2025年8月22日起汇添富鑫 荣纯债债券型证券投资基金暂停大额申购、转换转入业务，下属分级基金调整明细如下： | 分级基金简称 | 代码 | 是否暂停（大额）申购 | 申购限额 转入限额 定投限额 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (转入转出、赎回、定投) | (元) (元) | (元) | | 汇添量葵手纯信A 018487 | | 분 | 1000.00万 1000.00万 | | | 汇添量整车纯信C 018488 | | 루 | 1000.00万 1000.00万 | | 注:1、自2025年08月22日起（含2025年08月22日），汇添富鑫荣纯债A暂停大额申购、大额转换转入业 务，单日单个基金账户单笔或多笔累计申购、转换转入的金额不应超过10000000人民币元（含10000000 人民币元）。当单 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The bond market is affected by the stock market, but the adjustment space is limited. Attention should be paid to stock market changes and fund duration to select the timing for increasing bond allocation [59] - Overall, during stock market rallies, government bond yields tend to move in sync with funds. If funds are generally loose, government bond yields show a long - term downward trend, with the term spread widening and the credit spread narrowing. In terms of fund diversion, household deposits often decrease year - on - year, bond fund shares may decline periodically but will recover in the later stage of the stock market growth. The scale of wealth management transferred to the stock market may be relatively limited, and the scale and proportion of insurance bond investment are expected to rise [4][58] Summary by Different Stock Market Rally Periods 2006 - 2007 Stock Market Rally - **Bond Market Performance**: Government bond yields rose significantly, fund prices increased, the term spread first narrowed, then widened, and then narrowed again, and the credit spread first narrowed and then widened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 1181 points at the beginning of 2006 to 6092 points in mid - October 2007. The 10 - year government bond yield rose from 3.1% to 4.5%, an increase of 139bps. R007 rose from 1.5% to a maximum of 7.1%. The government bond term spread first dropped from 140bp to 85bp in November 2006, then rose to 180bp at the end of June 2007, and then dropped to 122bp in mid - October 2007. The 1 - year medium - term note credit spread dropped from 138bp at the end of 2006 to 59bp in mid - August 2007 and then rose to 118bp in mid - October 2007 [1][8] - **Fund Diversion**: Household deposits decreased year - on - year, the shares of both stock - type and bond - type funds increased, and the balance of insurance bond investment rose. From the second quarter of 2006 to the third quarter of 2007, household deposits decreased by a cumulative 12857 billion yuan year - on - year. Stock - type fund shares increased from 1279 billion shares in January 2006 to 10112 billion shares in October 2007, an increase of 8833 billion shares. Bond - type fund shares increased by a cumulative 187 billion shares from 243 billion shares. The balance of insurance bond investment increased from 6600 billion yuan in December 2005 to 10420 billion yuan in June 2007, an increase of 3820 billion yuan [2][14][18] 2014 - 2015 Stock Market Rally - **Bond Market Performance**: Government bond yields decreased significantly, funds were generally loose, the term spread first narrowed and then widened, and the credit spread narrowed after fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2024 points in mid - June 2014 to 5166 points in mid - June 2015. The 10 - year government bond yield dropped from 4.0% to about 3.6%, a decrease of 42bps. R007 first rose from 3.2% to 6.4% in late December 2014 and then dropped to 2.1%. The government bond term spread first narrowed from 63bp to 19bp in mid - October 2014 and then widened to 194bp in mid - June 2015. The 3 - year medium - term note credit spread narrowed from 136bp to 116bp overall [2][25] - **Fund Diversion**: Household deposits decreased year - on - year, the shares of stock - type and bond - type funds changed in opposite directions, the balance and proportion of insurance bond investment decreased, and the scale of wealth management increased. From July 2014 to June 2015, household deposits decreased by a cumulative 22655 billion yuan year - on - year. Bond - type fund shares increased by a cumulative 456 billion shares, while stock - type fund shares increased by a cumulative 1605 billion shares. The balance of insurance bond investment decreased from 35636 billion yuan in June 2014 to 35532 billion yuan in June 2015, and the proportion of bond investment dropped from 41.48% to 34.27%. The scale of bank wealth management products increased from 12.65 trillion yuan in June 2014 to 18.52 trillion yuan in June 2015 [2][33] 2024 - 2025 Stock Market Rally - **Bond Market Performance**: Government bond yields rose, funds were generally loose, and both the term spread and credit spread widened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2863 points on September 24, 2024, to 3490 points on October 8, 2024, and then continued to fluctuate. From July 2025 to August 18, 2025, it rose from 3458 points to 3728 points. The 10 - year government bond yield first rose from 2.07% to 2.25%, then dropped rapidly to 1.60%, and since July 2025, it has been rising. R007 dropped from 2.03% on September 24, 2024, to 1.50% on August 18, 2025. During the two stock market rallies, the term spread widened by 16.5bp and 9.5bp respectively, and the 3 - year medium - term note credit spread widened by 21.5bp and 6.7bp respectively [2][42] - **Fund Diversion**: Household deposits decreased year - on - year, bond - type fund shares decreased, stock - type fund shares increased, the balance and proportion of insurance bond investment rose, and the balance of wealth management bond investment increased. In September 2024, household deposits decreased by 3257 billion yuan year - on - year, and in July 2025, they decreased by 7818 billion yuan year - on - year. Bond - type fund shares decreased by 7002 billion shares in October 2024, while stock - type fund shares increased by a cumulative 1319 billion shares in September and October 2024. The balance of life insurance company bond investment increased from 14.23 trillion yuan in September 2024 to 16.92 trillion yuan in June 2025, and the proportion increased from 49.18% to 51.90%. The balance of bank wealth management increased from 28.52 trillion yuan in June 2024 to 30.67 trillion yuan in June 2025, and the bond investment scale increased from 16.98 trillion yuan to 18.33 trillion yuan [3][50]

在A股市场沪指强势创出十年新高的背景下，权益类基金本被寄予为投资者捕捉经济增长红利的厚望。 然而Wind数据显示，过去十年间，全市场仍有154只基金收益为负，其中权益类产品达91只。这些产品 历经多轮市场周期仍未能修复净值，部分甚至仍处于深跌状态，与市场整体走势形成强烈反差。从单只 产品看，太平灵活配置基金以近十年-54.05%的回报率，在权益类基金跌幅榜中位列第二，自2015年2月 成立以来总回报为-56.90%，意味着初始投资者至今亏损过半。 极不稳定的投研团队是长期颓势的核心症结。该基金成立十年间，先后更换了8位基金经理，人均任职 年限2.41年。除了徐磊在2019年至2020年约一年半的任期内取得26.77%的正回报和显著超额收益外，其 余绝大多数基金经理任职回报均为深度负数。首任基金经理赵梓峰任职回报为-29%，常璐任职回报 为-30.37%，杨行远任职回报为-26.90%，现任基金经理肖婵自2024年1月任职以来回报为-13.63%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Sanwei Chemical (002469.SZ) has reported significant institutional investment, with 15 institutional investors holding a total of 236 million shares, representing 36.41% of the company's total equity as of August 20, 2025 [1] - The top ten institutional investors collectively hold 36.37% of the shares, with an increase of 2.05 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, one public fund, the Chuangjin Hexin CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index A, has reduced its holdings, while seven new public funds have been disclosed, including E Fund CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF and others [2] - The National Social Security Fund 503 Combination has increased its holdings by 0.77%, and a new social security fund, the Huaxia Fund Management Co., Ltd. - Social Security Fund 422 Combination, has been disclosed [2] - In the insurance sector, the Qianhai Life Insurance Co., Ltd. - Dividend Insurance Product has increased its holdings by 0.4% [2]

申银万国期货分析指出，美联储7月利率会议继续按兵不动，但美联储内部观点呈现分裂，特朗普通过 人事任命影响市场对美联储的预期。贸易谈判呈现多方进展，但整体贸易环境仍在恶化。大而美法案落 地继续推升美国财政赤字预期，中国央行持续增持黄金，黄金方面长期驱动仍然提供支撑，当下价位较 高黄金上行迟疑，金银整体或在降息预期升温下呈现震荡走势。 消息面上，今日凌晨，美联储公布的7月会议纪要显示，7月会上，几乎全体决策者支持暂不降息，只有 两人反对。纪要体现了，对通胀和就业的风险以及关税对通胀的影响，联储官员均存在分歧，不过多数 还是认为，通胀上升的风险比就业下行的风险高。多人认为，关税的影响需要一些时间才会全面显现。 8月20日，受美股回落，美元走弱和美债收益率下滑支撑，市场避险需求上升，金价大幅反弹，截至收 盘，COMEX黄金期货涨1.00%报3392.20美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌0.3%，黄 金股ETF(159562)涨1.39%。 ...