3月25日，维信金科（2003.HK）公布2024年度业绩。 财报显示，过去一年，公司实现总收入39.30亿元人民币，同比增长10.1%；实现净利润4.78亿元，同比增长5.3%。 尽管外部经济环境复杂，消费信贷需求疲软，维信金科仍然取得了不错的增长成绩，展现出公司在复杂环境中的业务韧性和稳健发展能力。 从资本市场来看，自年初以来，公司股价持续攀升，年内涨幅达到80%。不难发现，一场"业绩与估值"双升的行情正在维信金科身上演绎，那么该如何看待 这一行情背后的持续性？ 1、技术+生态的双重壁垒 深入分析维信金科的增长驱动力，离不开其良好的经营布局和强运营能力。 一方面，通过技术赋能与生态协同，维信金科不断优化业务流程与客户服务，提升运营效率与用户体验，从而实现了现有用户价值的深度挖掘与复贷业务的 强劲增长。 数据显示，2024年，复贷借款人占贷款总量的85.9%，这一比例充分说明了用户对维信金科服务的认可与信赖，也为公司收入的稳定增长奠定了坚实基础。 另一方面，公司积极拓展优质获客渠道，与国内领先的金融科技平台签订合作协议，进一步扩大了其市场覆盖范围与用户群体规模。 截至2024年12月31日，内地业务全年贷款 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is leveraging technology to enhance elderly care services and protect the financial rights of senior citizens in the context of an aging society [1][5]. Group 1: Technology Empowerment in Elderly Care - The company has established a "Smart Elderly Care R&D Base" in collaboration with the Chongqing First Social Welfare Institute, marking a significant advancement in technology-enabled elderly services [2]. - A newly developed emotional support robot features five core functions: intelligent emotional companionship, digital literacy enhancement, health and safety monitoring, entertainment services, and life assistance management [2]. - The robot serves as a "24-hour online financial education volunteer," providing real-time fraud alerts and financial policy explanations to help seniors improve their risk awareness [2][4]. Group 2: Community Financial Education Initiatives - The company has launched community service activities that integrate financial education, focusing on the dissemination of knowledge about financial rights and fraud prevention [3]. - Volunteers use real-life case studies to simplify complex financial concepts, engaging seniors in interactive discussions [3]. - Additional community services, such as free haircuts and health monitoring, address the everyday needs of the elderly, enhancing the overall service experience [3]. Group 3: Holistic Service Network Development - The company employs a "soft and hard combination" strategy to create a comprehensive service network that addresses the pain points of elderly individuals regarding technology use and financial risk identification [4]. - The integration of AI technology in the emotional support robot and community activities fosters trust and participation among the elderly [4]. - This dual approach establishes a full-cycle protection chain for seniors, encompassing prevention, response, and support [4]. Group 4: Commitment to Dignity and Rights of the Elderly - The company demonstrates its technological innovation and social responsibility by providing both emotional support through robots and detailed community services [5]. - The initiatives aim to ensure that the elderly enjoy a safe, convenient, and dignified life in their later years [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on low-position themes with stable performance, such as low-position consumption, AI+ themes, and commercial aerospace, as high-position themes are expected to experience fluctuations [1][2][3]. Market Overview - Active capital positions are currently high, leading to market corrections and a shift in thematic styles, with previously popular themes declining [1]. - The past two weeks have seen rapid rotation in thematic markets lacking sustainability, with a decrease in market liquidity and activity [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting indicated a pause in interest rate adjustments, reducing concerns about a U.S. recession and inflation [3]. - European countries are increasing defense spending amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, with plans to invest €800 billion in defense upgrades [4][5]. Thematic Environment - The market is witnessing a decline in transaction volume, with a heightened focus on assets with high performance and low relative valuations [3]. - The A-share market has experienced significant pullbacks, with major indices declining and average daily trading volume dropping to around 1.5 trillion [5]. Catalytic Factors - Financial policies supporting consumption are being implemented, including increased loan limits for personal consumption [6]. - Internet companies are set to launch new AI platforms and products in March and April, which may stimulate interest in the AI+ application sector [6][7]. - The domestic large aircraft industry is entering a new phase of scale and industrialization, potentially increasing market share [7]. Key Focus Areas - The focus is on low-position consumption policies that may boost the low-position consumption sector, the large aircraft industry that is expected to grow, and the upcoming AI product launches that could drive the AI+ application sector [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the U.S. inflation has cooled down, reducing concerns about "stagflation," but there remains high uncertainty regarding Trump's policies and significant external volatility risks [3][7]. - In the domestic context, after the Two Sessions, policies are gradually being implemented, with recent notifications from the Financial Regulatory Bureau aimed at promoting consumer finance to boost consumption [3][7]. - The A-share market saw a slight decline in trading activity, with an average daily turnover of 16,557 billion yuan, down 452 billion yuan from the previous week, yet still at a high level for the year [4][8]. Group 2 - The report indicates a shift in market style, with growth and small-cap stocks transitioning towards financial, consumer, and large-cap sectors, while consumption and finance sectors are gaining strength [4][8]. - It is noted that the recent consumer policies may gradually favor the service sector and new consumption, limiting the benefits for traditional consumption sectors [4][8]. - The report suggests that the possibility of a structural bull market is higher than a comprehensive bull market, and after the recent policy implementations, the sustainability of consumption sectors remains uncertain [4][8]. Group 3 - The report recommends taking profits in financial and consumer sectors while looking for opportunities to accumulate technology growth stocks on dips [4][8]. - In the bond market, the central bank's recent adjustments to liquidity management have alleviated the risk of rising yields, but short-term expectations indicate a continued fluctuation in yields without significant downward space [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming macroeconomic data to assess whether there is an improvement in financing demand from residents and enterprises, which would indicate a gradual recovery in economic confidence [20].

Economic Overview - In 2024, China's economy is expected to show a steady but slowing trend, with final consumption's contribution to economic growth weakening marginally[4] - By the end of 2024, the narrow personal consumption loan balance is projected to reach CNY 21.01 trillion, reflecting a growth of 6.23% compared to the end of 2023[5] Policy Initiatives - The government has introduced multiple policies aimed at stimulating consumption and regulating the consumer finance market, focusing on consumer rights protection and risk management[12][14] - Key policies include promoting large-scale equipment updates and encouraging the recycling of consumer goods, which are expected to enhance consumption potential[15][17] ABS Issuance Trends - In 2024, the issuance of personal consumption loan ABS products totaled 17 transactions, with a cumulative issuance scale of CNY 243.23 billion, marking a significant decrease of 48.22% year-on-year[5][18] - The issuance rates for priority (AAAsf) securities ranged from 1.90% to 2.50%, indicating a narrowing compared to 2023[28] Market Performance - The secondary market for personal consumption loan ABS products saw a transaction volume of CNY 77.14 billion, down 45.79% from the previous year, with an average transaction amount of CNY 0.68 billion[30][32] - The cumulative default rates for ABS products initiated by commercial banks are generally lower than those initiated by consumer finance companies, reflecting stronger risk management practices[51][38] Asset Quality and Characteristics - The average loan amount in the asset pool for 2024 was CNY 6.93 million, with a high degree of asset pool dispersion[32][33] - The average weighted contract interest rate for the underlying assets was 16.35%, indicating a relatively high cost of borrowing[33] Future Outlook - The outlook for 2025 suggests that under the dual pressures of declining LPR rates and rising non-performing loan ratios, financial institutions will need to optimize their pricing strategies and risk management capabilities[51] - Continued monitoring of macroeconomic trends is essential, as they may impact the credit quality of personal consumption loan ABS products in the long term[51]