量化大势研判 202603 3 月核心推荐预期成长风格 glmszqdatemark 执业证书： S0590525110059 邮箱： yeerle@glms.com.cn 相关研究 2026 年 03 月 04 日 [Table_Author] 分析师 叶尔乐 为了解决风格系统化轮动难题，我们开启了自下而上的量化大势研判探究。所谓 风格是资产本身的内在属性，内嵌于其产业生命周期的变化中，存在五种风格阶 段：外延成长、质量成长、质量红利、价值红利、破产价值。全局比较下来的优 势资产其特征属性，即为未来市场的主流风格。可通过 g>ROE>D 的基本优先级 进行考察，分析"有没有（好资产）"和"（好资产）贵不贵"进行优势资产的比 较判断，最后聚焦当下最具有优势的细分板块。 预期增速资产优势差继续回升，实际增速资产优势差变化不大，继续核心推荐预 期成长风格，景气类成长有待财报验证。△gf 继续保持扩张，其主要来自 Top 组 的上升，高预期增速板块依然有表现机会；△g 同样扩张但变化不大，景气类策略 虽缺乏基本面动量优势，看后续财报披露下是否会再次开启上升趋势。 ROE 的优势差回升但幅度走弱，拥挤度较低下，可挑选 ...

- The report introduces a quantitative model framework for market trend analysis, focusing on five asset style stages: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value. The model evaluates assets based on their intrinsic attributes and prioritizes them using the sequence of g > ROE > D, analyzing whether there are "good assets" and whether they are "expensive" [5][8][9] - The model incorporates key factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), high dividend (D), and bankruptcy value (B/P). Each factor is associated with specific market phases, e.g., expected growth is relevant across all phases, while profitability is emphasized during maturity phases [9][12] - The quantitative model has demonstrated strong historical performance, achieving an annualized return of 27.67% since 2009. It has shown consistent excess returns in most years, particularly post-2017, with limited effectiveness in years like 2011, 2012, and 2016 [19][22] - The model's backtesting results for specific years include notable excess returns, such as 51% in 2009, 36% in 2013, and 62% in 2022. However, it also recorded underperformance in years like 2011 (-11%) and 2014 (-4%) [22] - The report details six specific strategies derived from the model, each focusing on different factors: - **Expected Growth Strategy**: Selects industries with the highest analyst-forecasted growth rates. Recent recommendations include sectors like automotive sales, lithium equipment, and tungsten [38][39] - **Actual Growth Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the highest unexpected growth (△g). Current recommendations include photovoltaic equipment, insurance, and coal chemical sectors [40][41] - **Profitability Strategy**: Targets high-ROE industries with low valuations under the PB-ROE framework. Recommended sectors include copper, liquor, and non-dairy beverages [43][44] - **Quality Dividend Strategy**: Utilizes a DP+ROE scoring system to identify industries. Current recommendations include forestry, lithium equipment, and fiberglass [46][47] - **Value Dividend Strategy**: Employs a DP+BP scoring system. Recommended sectors include security, daily chemicals, and buses [49][50] - **Bankruptcy Value Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores. Current recommendations include automotive sales, ceramics, and cotton textiles [53][54]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the competitive landscape and investment development in China's special vehicle industry from 2026 to 2032 [1] Export Performance - In November 2025, China's special vehicle exports reached 5,386 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.1% [1] - The export value for the same period was $37.9 million, which represents a year-on-year growth of 23.5% [1] Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1] - The firm emphasizes its commitment to providing comprehensive industry solutions to empower investment decisions through professional insights and market acumen [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the competitive landscape and investment development in China's specialized vehicle industry from 2026 to 2032 [1] Export Data Summary - In October 2025, China exported 4,992 specialized vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 9% [1] - The export value for the same period was $36.3 million, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% [1] Company Profile - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, with over a decade of experience in industry research [1] - The company offers comprehensive industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services, focusing on providing complete industry solutions to empower investment decisions [1]

Core Insights - The specialized vehicle industry is crucial for rural revitalization, national economic construction, and public safety, undergoing significant transformations in product management, industry structure, and market environment [1] - The 2025 Specialized Vehicle Industry Development Forum highlighted the themes of "collaboration, reshaping, and win-win" for the industry [1] Group 1: Trends in the Industry - The industry is experiencing three major trends: electrification, intelligence, and internationalization, with a focus on long-term governance, standard revisions, and access regulations [3][4] - By 2024, China's sales of new energy specialized vehicles are expected to exceed 300,000 units, with a penetration rate of nearly 30%, and projections indicate that by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, some public sectors may exceed a 70% penetration rate for electric vehicles [4] - In terms of internationalization, China's specialized vehicle exports are projected to reach 52,100 units in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 44.6%, with a shift from low-value to high-value products [4] Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities - The specialized vehicle industry faces challenges such as intensified competition and the need for transformation, requiring a shift from "scale cost" to "value innovation" and from "selling products" to "providing services" [7] - The market demand for specialized vehicles is stabilizing at a low level after years of rapid growth, with a shift from "scale construction" to "refined operation" in urban development [7] - The industry is expected to integrate deeply into the "smart city" development strategy, focusing on data interaction, intelligent decision-making, and unmanned operations [7] Group 3: Future Directions - Companies are encouraged to transition products towards cleanliness, intelligence, and platformization, evolving specialized vehicles from mere tools to mobile service platforms [7] - The industry must collectively promote innovation-driven growth, moving from price competition to value creation, and achieving an upgrade from "many weak" to "few strong" players [7][8] - The automation application in the specialized vehicle industry faces challenges due to diverse market demands, necessitating solutions for efficient production line adjustments [10]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the competitive landscape and investment development in China's specialized vehicle industry from 2026 to 2032 [1] Export Performance - In September 2025, China's specialized vehicle exports reached 5,355 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.9% [1] - The export value for the same period was $37.5 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.6% [1] Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1] - The firm emphasizes its professional approach, quality services, and keen market insights to provide comprehensive industry solutions that empower investment decisions [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the competitive landscape and investment development in China's specialized vehicle industry from 2026 to 2032 [1] Export Performance - In August 2025, China's specialized vehicle exports reached 5,111 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.8% [1] - The export value for the same period was $378 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.8% [1] Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, with over a decade of experience in industry research [1] - The firm provides comprehensive industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services, focusing on delivering complete industry solutions to empower investment decisions [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights significant changes in China's specialized vehicle import and export market for April 2025, indicating a sharp decline in imports and a modest increase in exports [1] Import Data - In April 2025, China imported only 1 specialized vehicle, representing a year-on-year decrease of 88.9% [1] - The import value for the same month was $0 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 95.6% [1] Export Data - In contrast, China exported 5,401 specialized vehicles in April 2025, which is an increase of 11.5% compared to the previous year [1] - The export value reached $39.2 million, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.7% [1] Industry Overview - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services for investment decisions [1]

Core Insights - Weihai City has established a clear economic development direction, enhancing the quality and efficiency of the service industry through planning, policy support, and cultivation of service platforms [1][2][3] Planning and Development - The city has implemented the "14th Five-Year" planning framework, focusing on consumption enhancement, openness, and optimization of the business environment, leading to a steady growth in service industry value added, averaging a 5.5% annual increase since the start of the plan [1] - In the first half of this year, the service industry value added grew by 7.4%, ranking first in the province [1] Enterprise Support - A comprehensive service network has been established to support enterprises, addressing challenges faced by key businesses in retail, accommodation, and service sectors [2] - Over 300 enterprises have received funding support from the development and reform sector, stimulating business vitality [2] Industry Integration - The city promotes the integration of advanced manufacturing and modern services, encouraging manufacturing firms to extend into service-oriented manufacturing, achieving differentiated competition [2] - Weihai has created 15 provincial-level integration pilot units, maintaining the top position in the province for six consecutive years [2] Industrial Clusters - The city focuses on spatial concentration and resource integration to develop clusters in modern commerce, cross-border e-commerce, and cultural tourism, resulting in the establishment of nine provincial modern service industry clusters [3] - A total of 14,000 enterprises have settled in these clusters, creating 262,000 jobs and becoming significant growth drivers for the regional service industry [3] Project Development - The city prioritizes project development, with over 271 service industry projects planned, totaling an investment of 152.41 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing industrial growth [3] - Key projects include the Hai Port City Complex and the digital platform for Disang Textile and Apparel, which are expected to inject strong momentum into the industry [3] Future Directions - The Weihai Development and Reform Commission plans to continue enhancing collaboration among departments and districts, focusing on policy implementation, project construction, and maintaining the leading position of the service industry in the province [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "Shengcheng Invitation: Confucian Businessmen Return Home" investment and economic cooperation exchange meeting was held in Jining, highlighting the region's economic growth and investment opportunities, particularly in advanced manufacturing and green development [1][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance - Shandong Province's GDP grew by 5.6% in the first half of the year, surpassing the national average by 0.3 percentage points [4]. - From January to August, industrial output, consumption, and imports/exports increased by 7.8%, 5.7%, and 5.8% respectively, all above the national averages [4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Jining is recognized as a national advanced manufacturing city with 58 Fortune 500 companies investing in the region, establishing multiple national-level industrial bases [6]. - The city is currently focusing on green, low-carbon, and high-quality development, with significant projects like the 116 billion yuan investment by Changcheng Heavy Industry for a new energy machinery production base [12]. Group 3: Cultural and Historical Significance - Jining, known as the birthplace of Confucius, embodies a rich cultural heritage that influences its business environment, promoting values such as integrity and social responsibility [10][14]. - The "Confucian Business Spirit" emphasizes the integration of moral values with economic pursuits, advocating for ethical business practices and social responsibility [14]. Group 4: Key Projects and Collaborations - The meeting included a signing ceremony for key projects, injecting new momentum into Jining's industrial development [18]. - Notable companies like China National Building Material and Shun Cheng Group are among those that signed agreements to invest in Jining [18].