证券研究报告 | 2026年01月10日 12 月非农数据点评 就业中性偏弱，政策取向谨慎 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 1 月 9 日，美国劳工部（BLS）发布 2025 年 12 月非农就业报告。当月新增非农就业人数 5 万， 略低于预期的 6 万人，失业率下行至 4.4%。 评论： 图1：12 月非农数据总览 | 行业类别 | | 12月新增就业 | | 12月存量就业 | 12月平均薪资 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Employment Trends - In October, the U.S. added 105,000 non-farm jobs, a significant drop from September's 108,000, but rebounded to 64,000 in November, exceeding market expectations of 50,000[8] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in nearly four years, up from 4.44% in September[8] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits and continuing claims showed slight improvement, indicating resilience in the job market[2] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to see growth and unemployment rates stabilize by 2026, with inflation initially declining before rising again[2] - The Federal Reserve may consider a rate cut in June as a political gesture, with inflation potentially rebounding in the second half of the year[2] - The labor participation rate increased from 62.3% to 62.5%, with the broader U6 unemployment rate rising to 8.7%[8] Sector Performance - Job growth was primarily concentrated in construction, healthcare, and education services, while manufacturing jobs continued to decline for the seventh consecutive month[8] - Retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, maintained rapid growth in October, indicating consumer resilience[2] - The service sector's PMI employment index and job postings on Indeed showed a slow recovery, suggesting ongoing demand for labor[2]

Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K for June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised +144K for May [1][2] - The Unemployment Rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, totaling an additional +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The Government sector contributed +73K jobs, while the Federal Government saw a loss of -7K jobs [4] - The Healthcare sector added +39K jobs, and Social Assistance added +19K jobs, while traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Interest Rate Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market narrative [7] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, an improvement from the March record low of -$138 billion, with April's deficit revised to -$60.3 billion [9] Market Expectations - Analysts anticipate a rebound in Factory Orders for May and mixed results for Services PMI, with both metrics expected to remain above the growth threshold of 50 [10][11]

Group 1 - The ADP private-sector payrolls for June reported a decline of -33K, marking the first negative reading since March 2023, significantly below the expected +100K and the previously revised +29K [1][3] - The decline in jobs was primarily driven by the services sector, which lost -66K jobs, including significant losses in Professional/Business Services (-56K) and Education/Healthcare (-52K) [2][3] - Large companies (more than 500 employees) saw a slight gain of +30K jobs, while small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) experienced a loss of -47K jobs [3] Group 2 - The current estimate for nonfarm payrolls in the upcoming Employment Situation report is +110K, but this may be revised downward following the negative ADP report [3] - The last negative ADP report in March 2023 occurred under different economic conditions, with the Federal Reserve having raised interest rates to over +5% and inflation being addressed [4] - The current job losses are predominantly in white-collar positions, which may be unexpected, and are not directly linked to the White House's deportation campaign [5] Group 3 - The upcoming expiration of reciprocal tariff initiatives could impact future private-sector payrolls, with potential for recovery depending on new trade deals or tariff pauses [6] - The trailing four-month average for private-sector job growth is only +51K, insufficient to cover new retirees, contrasting sharply with the previous eight-month average of +162K [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed unexpected resilience in May, with non-farm employment increasing by 139,000, surpassing market expectations of 130,000 despite a slowdown from previous months [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for three consecutive months, alleviating concerns about a significant slowdown in the labor market [3] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, exceeding expectations, indicating moderate wage growth that may influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions [3] Group 2 - The healthcare sector led job growth with an addition of 62,000 jobs, significantly outperforming the 44,000 increase from the same period last year [5] - The leisure and hospitality industry contributed 48,000 new jobs, while the technology sector faced challenges, notably with DOGE laying off 22,000 employees, marking the most severe layoffs since 2020 [5] - Economic policies, particularly regarding tariffs, have created uncertainty for many businesses, leading to hesitance in future financial planning [5] Group 3 - The overall employment growth in the U.S. is characterized as a "moderate cooling," with both employees and employers awaiting clearer market signals for adjustments [7] - The May non-farm employment report, while exceeding expectations in some areas, did not present strong signals to alter Federal Reserve policy, reinforcing a cautious stance [7] - Experts believe that the continued employment growth and moderate wage increases are unlikely to trigger inflationary pressures, suggesting the Federal Reserve may remain cautious in its next steps [7]