Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K for June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised +144K for May [1][2] - The Unemployment Rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, totaling an additional +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The Government sector contributed +73K jobs, while the Federal Government saw a loss of -7K jobs [4] - The Healthcare sector added +39K jobs, and Social Assistance added +19K jobs, while traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Interest Rate Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market narrative [7] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, an improvement from the March record low of -$138 billion, with April's deficit revised to -$60.3 billion [9] Market Expectations - Analysts anticipate a rebound in Factory Orders for May and mixed results for Services PMI, with both metrics expected to remain above the growth threshold of 50 [10][11]

Group 1 - The ADP private-sector payrolls for June reported a decline of -33K, marking the first negative reading since March 2023, significantly below the expected +100K and the previously revised +29K [1][3] - The decline in jobs was primarily driven by the services sector, which lost -66K jobs, including significant losses in Professional/Business Services (-56K) and Education/Healthcare (-52K) [2][3] - Large companies (more than 500 employees) saw a slight gain of +30K jobs, while small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) experienced a loss of -47K jobs [3] Group 2 - The current estimate for nonfarm payrolls in the upcoming Employment Situation report is +110K, but this may be revised downward following the negative ADP report [3] - The last negative ADP report in March 2023 occurred under different economic conditions, with the Federal Reserve having raised interest rates to over +5% and inflation being addressed [4] - The current job losses are predominantly in white-collar positions, which may be unexpected, and are not directly linked to the White House's deportation campaign [5] Group 3 - The upcoming expiration of reciprocal tariff initiatives could impact future private-sector payrolls, with potential for recovery depending on new trade deals or tariff pauses [6] - The trailing four-month average for private-sector job growth is only +51K, insufficient to cover new retirees, contrasting sharply with the previous eight-month average of +162K [7]

美国劳工统计局公布的五月非农就业报告显示，尽管市场对经济放缓的预期较为强烈，但实际结果出乎意料，非农就业人口增幅虽有所放缓，但仍高于市场 预期。根据调整后的数据，五月美国非农就业人口增加了十三点九万人，创下自二月以来的新低，尽管如此，这一增幅仍高于市场预期的十三万人。 与此同时，失业率保持在百分之四点二的水平，连续三个月未发生变化，这也消除了市场对劳动力市场大幅放缓的担忧。尽管新增就业的增幅低于前几个月 的表现，但整体失业率的稳定无疑为经济前景注入了一丝乐观的信号。 然而，值得注意的是，虽然五月的就业增长好于预期，但此前两个月的就业数据被 大幅下修，合计修正幅度达到九点五万人。这意味着，虽然五月的表现稍显强劲，但前两个月的调整削弱了这一点。 薪资增长方面，五月的平均时薪环比 上升百分之零点四，高于预期的百分之零点三和前值的零点二。同比增幅则为百分之三点九，超出了百分之三点七的预期。这一数据虽未引发过度担忧，但 工资的温和上升仍为美联储未来政策决策提供了参考依据。分析人士指出，尽管薪资增速上升，但当前水平尚不足以促使美联储立刻采取行动干预。 行业方面，美国医疗领域继续引领就业增长，新增就业岗位达到六点二万个，表 ...