数据显示，圣地亚哥县现有独栋住宅的销售量在7月比6月增长了3.8%。这一增长与加州全州的情况形成鲜明对比——全州7月的房屋销量比6月下 降了1%，与去年同期相比更是下跌了4.1%。 尽管加州全州的房市表现疲软，但圣地亚哥县的房地产市场却呈现出逆势增长的态势。根据加州房地产经纪人协会（California Association of Realtors）的最新数据，圣地亚哥的房价和销量在7月份双双上涨，成为全州房产市场中的一抹亮色。 加州房地产经纪人协会主席希瑟·奥祖尔（Heather Ozur）表示，7月份全州房地产市场的放缓，是因为一些买家在观望，等待市场和宏观经济出现 更多确定性。 然而，她也指出一个积极信号：抵押贷款利率最近已降至去年10月以来的最低水平，这已经促使购房申请有所增加。如果这一趋势持续，预计未 来几个月将有更强的买家活动和需求。 更引人注目的是房价。7月份，圣地亚哥县独栋住宅的销售价格中位数达到104万美元，比6月的102.5万美元上涨了1.5万美元，也高于2024年7月的 102万美元。这表明，在全州房价中位数微跌（7月全州中位价为884,050美元，环比下跌1.7%）的情况下，圣地亚哥 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the primary risks facing the U.S. market and economy are shifting from private sector financial excesses to escalating public sector debt issues and high asset valuations [1][2]. Fiscal Sustainability - The report highlights that the greatest long-term risk for the U.S. is fiscal sustainability, with concerns that rising national debt and interest payments could necessitate sustained large fiscal surpluses, which are politically challenging [2]. - Any resulting upward pressure on interest rates could tighten the broader financial environment and hinder economic growth, especially given the already high asset valuations [2]. Asset Valuation Concerns - Despite high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties, U.S. stock market valuations remain at their highest levels since the late 1990s, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.4, significantly above the historical average of 15.9 since 1990 [2]. - The speculative trading index from Goldman Sachs indicates heightened market risk, with phenomena like "Meme stocks" reflecting increased market risk appetite [2]. Real Estate Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs expresses limited concern regarding high real estate prices, attributing them to a persistent supply-demand imbalance rather than loose lending standards or speculative buying [3][4]. - The shortage of single-family homes is expected to continue, limiting the risk of significant price declines [4]. Household Debt Insights - The report addresses two main concerns regarding household debt: low savings rates are fundamentally linked to household wealth levels, and rising consumer credit default rates reflect past risky lending practices rather than a general deterioration in household financial health [5]. - Current default rates are stabilizing, indicating manageable household debt levels [5]. Corporate Debt Overview - Although corporate interest expenses have risen significantly in recent years, the consequences appear limited at this time [6]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that refinancing maturing debt will only increase interest expenses by 3% over the next two years, a significant decrease from the previously estimated 7% for 2023, due to much of the debt being refinanced in a higher interest rate environment [7].

Core Insights - The Australian housing market is expected to continue rising due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the central bank and tight housing supply [1][5] - In April, the national home value index increased by 0.3%, marking the third consecutive month of growth, with the median house value rising approximately AUD 2,720 [3][4] Housing Price Trends - The current national median house price stands at AUD 825,349, with Sydney having the highest median at AUD 1,194,709 and Darwin the lowest at AUD 526,410 [3][4] - All capital cities experienced price increases in April, with Darwin showing the largest growth at 1.1% [3][4] - Over the past year, all states except Melbourne and Canberra saw price increases, with Melbourne experiencing a decline of 2.2% and Canberra a slight drop of 0.6% [4] Regional Performance - Perth recorded the highest annual price increase at 10%, while Brisbane and Adelaide also showed significant growth at 7.8% and 9.8% respectively [5] - Detached houses continue to outperform apartments in value growth, with a 1.1% increase in the last three months compared to 0.5% for apartments [5] Rental Market Insights - The national rental index rose by 0.6% in the quarter, with a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.4% in April, indicating a slowdown compared to previous years [6][7] - Despite high rental prices, the growth rate has significantly decreased from the 8% to 10% increases seen in 2021, 2022, and 2023 [6][7]