奇点就在2026。 作者 / 新智元 编辑 / 桃子 好困 来源 / 新智元 （ID：AI_era） 起因竟是，Mi d j o u r n e y创始人公开称，圣诞假期自己敲的代码，比过去十年加起来还 要多，简直太疯狂。 「虽然能感到局限，但我知道一切都不再一样了」。 同一天，马斯克不止一次，直接宣称「2 0 2 6年就是奇点之年」。 这几天，Cl a u d e Co d e在全网掀起的阵仗可真不小。 一睁眼，地球首富马斯克重磅宣告：我们已进入奇点！ 这个点评同样是对Cl a u d e Co d e的高度赞扬。 如 今 ， 包 括 An t h r o p i c 之 父 、 前 De e pMi n d /Op e nAI 研 究 员 、 谷 歌 首 席 工 程 师 等 大 佬 在 内，都为其感到震惊。 马斯克：2026，奇点降临 一直以来，奇点这一概念就像科幻词一般的存在。 雷·库兹维尔曾在2 0 0 5年《奇点临近》一书中，预测道技术奇点大约发生在2 0 4 5年。 而在最新出版的《奇点更近》著作中，他再次重申奇点时间：仍是2 0 4 5年。 谁曾想，这个看似还很遥远的时刻，一下子被拉到了现在—— ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 2026 的市场共识与风险 20260104 摘要 2025 年美国经济可能出现哪些情形?这些情形下股票、债券及美元会有何影 响？ Q&A 2026 年华尔街的市场共识和可能存在的风险是什么？ 2026 年华尔街的市场共识呈现出相对乐观的态势。根据彭博社统计,华尔街主 要卖方策略师对 2026 年底标普 500 指数点位的预测最低为 7,000 点,最高为 2024 年底标普 500 指数收盘低于市场预期,引发对未来经济走向的关注。 市场普遍预期 2025年美国经济将保持稳健增长,受益于 AI 发展、减税政 策和美联储降息的合力推动。 美国经济存在三种潜在情形:周期再平衡、生产力提升和滞胀风险。周期 ● 再平衡情景下,经济稳健增长,股市看涨;生产力提升情景下,AI 技术 带来生产率实质性提升,股市将表现非常强劲;滞胀风险情景下,经济结 构分化加剧,股市波动加剧且表现疲软。 委内瑞拉石油增产面临基础设施落后和政治局势复杂等多重挑战,短期内 . 难以解决石油供应问题,反而可能增加地缘政治风险和资本市场的不确定 性。 n7.6 当前宏观经济环境下,△需关性供 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 增长的盛夏，就业的寒冬（国金宏观钟天） 来源：雪涛宏观笔记 美国经济的深秋，正在经历"增长的盛夏"和"就业的寒冬"。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 美国第三季度GDP在延迟了近两个月后终于公布，环比折年率录得4.3%（预期3.3%）；同比增速虽进 一步回升至2.3%，但较去年同期的2.8%仍有显著差距。 但值得关注的是，在7-9月经济数据几乎明牌的情况下，这份GDP报告超出了所有市场参与者以及联储 的预期（例如基于联储的SEP——2025年1.7%的增速，第四季度GDP环比持平即可）；除了其中结构的 差异外，宏观和微观的差异也正在变大——美国经济的深秋正在经历"增长的盛夏"和"就业的寒冬"，分 化也还将延续。 从结构来看，在4.3%的环比折年增速中，居民消费和净出口成为两大支柱，分别贡献2.4和1.6个百分 点。然而，消费本身存在分化和"高估"，净出口的增长实际上延续着"抢进口"的余波影响，看似放缓的 投资增速中AI与非AI的分化仍在拉大。 结合近期公布的数据，我们重点关注三组对比： （1）非顺周期部分增长强劲，顺周期部门疲软加剧。 ...

文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 美国第三季度GDP在延迟了近两个月后终于公布，环比折年率录得4.3%（预期3.3%）；同比增速虽 进一步回升至2.3%，但较去年同期的2.8%仍有显著差距。 但值得关注的是，在7-9月经济数据几乎明牌的情况下，这份GDP报告超出了所有市场参与者以及联 储的预期（例如基于联储的SEP——2025年1.7%的增速，第四季度GDP环比持平即可）；除了其中 结构的差异外，宏观和微观的差异也正在变大——美国经济的深秋正在经历"增长的盛夏"和"就业的寒 冬"，分化也还将延续。 美国经济的深秋，正在经历"增长的盛夏"和"就业的寒冬"。 从结构来看，在4.3%的环比折年增速中，居民消费和净出口成为两大支柱，分别贡献2.4和1.6个百分 点。然而，消费本身存在分化和"高估"，净出口的增长实际上延续着"抢进口"的余波影响，看似放缓 的投资增速中AI与非AI的分化仍在拉大。 结合近期公布的数据，我们重点关注三组对比： （1）非顺周期部分增长强劲，顺周期部门疲软加剧。 上半年增长强劲的AI相关投资，其环比增速在第三季度有所下降，但依然是投资类别中增长最快的分 项。此前呈现的投资强于消费情况被进一步修正 ...

世界银行、国际货币基金组织、亚洲开发银行相继把对中国明年经济的增长预测往上调。幅度不算夸张，但方向一致：世行上 调 0.4 个百分点、IMF 上调 0.2 个百分点、亚开行上调 0.1 个百分点。对国际机构来说，预测值的每一位小幅调整，都代表判 断逻辑的更新。 从今年的运行情况看，中国经济的韧性确实比很多人年初时的预期更强。财政端持续加力、货币政策保持宽松，让消费和投资 在压力下仍保持活力；出口市场逐步多元化，也给外需带来了更稳定的支撑。今年的整体表现，让国际机构有足够理由把来年 的增长预期重新梳理。 更值得注意的是，这些机构并没有只谈短期。世行中国区首席经济学家米丽莎认为，中国的长期增长潜力依然可观，而关键仍 在于科技创新和生产力提升；资源配置效率的继续改善，意味着潜在增速并没有外界担心的那样迅速下滑。 IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃则把目光放在"内需"这一核心变量上。她提到，中国正在通过更精准的政策组合来增强消费的稳定性： 完善社保体系、提高养老支持、发放育儿补贴，整治资源浪费型的竞争环境……这些举措，会影响中期的增长质量，让经济结 构更健康，也让信心更稳定。 从吉融的角度看，这类判断并不只是宏观层面的好消息，更 ...

Group 1: AI Bubble Discussion - The consensus among experts is that AI represents a significant bubble, with comparisons made to the 2000 internet bubble, suggesting that the current situation may be even worse [4][10][83] - Despite the recognition of the AI bubble, investment in AI is deemed necessary due to its high market concentration, particularly in the U.S. stock market [24][74][84] - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of AI investments, likening them to past infrastructure investments in China that did not yield sufficient cash flow returns [15][81][82] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - There is a strong recommendation for investing in commodities and mining stocks, which have outperformed AI stocks this year, with gold and silver prices rising approximately 60% and 80% respectively [30][31][95] - The focus is also on non-U.S. value stocks and dividend-paying stocks, which have shown resilience and better returns compared to tech stocks [30][31][41] - The concept of "flowers blooming in winter" is introduced, highlighting companies that maintain profitability even in downturns, suggesting they are good investment opportunities [34][70][89] Group 3: Gold and Precious Metals - Gold has been highlighted as a crucial part of investment portfolios, with a significant increase in its price reflecting concerns over fiat currency, particularly the U.S. dollar [48][95][102] - Recent actions by central banks, such as Russia selling gold, are seen as warning signs for the gold market, indicating potential overvaluation [52][63][100] - The long-term narrative for gold remains strong, but caution is advised regarding current price levels, as they may not be sustainable [50][56][102] Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategies - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, balancing investments between dividend-paying stocks (beta assets) and productivity-related assets (alpha assets) [37][66][92] - Investors are encouraged to focus on low PE and PB stocks that exhibit defensive characteristics and potential for growth during economic downturns [32][70][89] - The importance of diversifying investments to avoid the risks associated with concentrated positions in high-flying sectors like AI is emphasized [71][74][96]

OpenAI 的前景紧密绑定其投资方与 AI 产业链。微软与亚马逊既是合作伙伴也是投资者，甲骨文、英 伟达与 AMD 亦会因其兴衰而受影响。但风险同样明显：商业模式是否可持续、订阅市场是否会饱和、 监管是否会加码、资本需求是否过大，都未有定论。 汇丰指出，公司或可继续举债，然而当前市场条件下难度极高。甲骨文与 Meta 近期为 AI 资本开支举 债规模巨大，引发市场对 AI 融资可持续性的担忧，甲骨文信用违约掉期的明显上升更令分析师示警。 汇丰银行一方面仍坚持 AI 是一条长期增长主线，也认为 OpenAI 在收入上将维持领先；另一方面的计 算表明，若 OpenAI 想兑现目标，未来十年将面临极端沉重的资金压力。 汇丰预计到 2030 年，OpenAI 的用户规模将覆盖全球成年人的 44%，但仍无法盈利。此外，为维持增 长计划，公司至少还需新增 2070 亿美元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 1.47 万亿元人民币）算力投入。高昂 的基础设施成本、加剧的竞争与资本密集程度前所未有的 AI 市场，共同构成这一判断的背景。 汇丰团队在更新模型时，将 OpenAI 与微软 2500 亿美元、与亚马逊 380 亿美元的长期 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba and Ant Group have launched AI assistants that have rapidly gained user traction, with Alibaba's "Qianwen" app surpassing 10 million downloads within a week and Ant Group's "Lingguang" achieving 2 million downloads in just 6 days, indicating a significant shift in the competitive landscape of AI applications in China [1][5][15] User Demand Shift - The competition in AI to C products has evolved from mere conversational capabilities to practical utility, with users now seeking tools that solve real-life problems rather than just providing information [6][8] - Lingguang's ability to generate interactive applications in 30 seconds has sparked a trend where users create personalized tools, reflecting a shift towards a "practical necessity" phase in AI applications [8][13] Competitive Landscape - The emergence of a "North Byte, South Alibaba" dynamic highlights the contrasting strategies of the two companies, with Alibaba focusing on practical applications and user needs, while ByteDance emphasizes content and engagement [5][10][12] - Lingguang's success is attributed to its focus on delivering tools rather than just information, marking a generational leap in AI capabilities [10][14] Market Implications - The rapid growth of Lingguang and Qianwen signifies a new phase in the AI market, where the emphasis is on creating value through user-driven applications rather than just attracting traffic [9][15] - The differentiation in the underlying ecosystem logic between Alibaba and ByteDance suggests that future competitive barriers will be built on the reliability of tool generation and deep integration with complex service scenarios [11][14] Future Outlook - The potential for Lingguang lies in its ability to integrate with various services, creating a closed loop of tool generation, service invocation, and payment, which could enhance its user retention and ecosystem value [14][15] - The competition in the AI to C market is expected to intensify as both companies strive to establish sustainable value creation mechanisms, with the initial success of Lingguang being just the beginning of a longer journey [15]

Group 1 - The core view of Morgan Stanley's 2026 outlook is that an AI-driven capital expenditure wave of nearly $3 trillion will propel the market higher, with the S&P 500 index expected to reach 7800 points [1][2][8] - The report highlights that the shift in U.S. policy towards industrial policy and strategic investments is driving a significant rebound in corporate capital expenditures [3][4] - Morgan Stanley predicts that global AI-related capital expenditures will approach $3 trillion, with approximately $1.5 trillion needing to be financed through public and private credit markets, contributing 0.4 percentage points to the projected 1.8% GDP growth in the U.S. by 2026 [5][6] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are expected to be broad-based across various industries, not limited to a few leading AI companies, with industrial firms, tech component suppliers, and financial institutions likely to benefit [8] - In the credit market, high-yield bonds are forecasted to outperform investment-grade bonds due to increased issuance pressures on investment-grade bonds, while high-yield bonds are expected to provide around 6-7% total returns [8] - Despite the positive outlook for 2026, there are warnings about potential cyclical pressures from trade policies and interest rate fluctuations, with the Fed possibly starting to cut rates in early 2026 [9] Group 3 - The main risk identified is the potential failure of the AI capital expenditure wave to translate into substantial productivity gains, which could lead to rising corporate leverage outpacing output growth and causing credit market concerns [10] - However, the likelihood of this risk materializing in 2026 is considered low, as corporate fundamentals remain strong with healthy balance sheets and low leverage [10] - It is crucial for investors to monitor key indicators such as corporate leverage, market valuations, and the conversion of investment waves into actual output starting in 2026 [10]

一场由AI驱动的资本开支热潮正在形成，但这背后也潜藏着重大风险。 近日，摩根士丹利在其2026年展望报告中描绘了一幅整体积极的图景，认为由AI驱动的资本支出热潮将成为市场的主要推动力。 然而，该行也发出了一个关键的长期警告：如果这场耗资数万亿美元的投资未能及时转化为实质性的生产力增长，那么由此引发的杠杆率上升和 信贷担忧可能成为市场面临的主要风险。 AI引领的3万亿美元资本开支浪潮 策略师Michael Zezas在报告中表示，世界正在对美国政策的转变做出反应。美国政策已从过去的自由贸易转向以产业政策、贸易壁垒和战略投资 为核心的新共识，这种转变为企业资本支出的大幅回升提供了动力。 报告指出，在企业资产负债表现金充裕、经济环境有利以及AI技术前景的共同推动下，一场资本支出的浪潮正在形成。 摩根士丹利预计，全球与AI相关的资本支出将接近3万亿美元，其中约1.5万亿美元需要通过公共和私人信贷市场进行融资。 这一投资热潮预计将对实体经济产生直接影响，成为未来几年经济增长的重要引擎。该行经济团队预测，仅AI相关的资本支出就将为2026年美国 1.8%的GDP增长预估值贡献0.4个百分点。 投资机遇：从信贷到股市的广泛 ...