Carter's (NYSE:CRI) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 27, 2026 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsDouglas C. Palladini - Director, President and CEOJay Sole - Managing DirectorJonathan Keypour - VP of Equity ResearchPaul Lejuez - Managing Director and Head of Consumer Discretionary ResearchRichard F. Westenberger - CFO and COOSean McHugh - VP and TreasurerConference Call ParticipantsChristopher Nardone - VP and Equity Research AnalystIke Boruchow - Managing Director and Senior Equity Consumer AnalystJim Chartier ...

Core Argument - The article discusses the profound impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the job market, suggesting that the U.S. is unprepared for the potential disruptions it may cause to employment and economic stability [1]. Group 1: Historical Context and Current Trends - The establishment of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) aimed to measure labor conditions and create fair outcomes amidst industrial changes, highlighting the importance of data in understanding economic realities [5][6]. - The BLS has documented significant job growth in various sectors, such as a 907% increase in mobile food service jobs since 2000, indicating a dynamic labor market [6]. - However, the BLS is limited in its predictive capabilities, particularly regarding the impact of emerging technologies like AI on the workforce [7]. Group 2: AI's Impact on Employment - AI is rapidly transforming job functions, enabling tasks to be completed more efficiently than ever before, which raises concerns about job displacement [8][9]. - Predictions from industry leaders suggest that AI could lead to a 10% to 20% increase in unemployment rates and potentially eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs within the next decade [10]. - A Reuters/Ipsos survey indicates that 71% of Americans fear AI will lead to permanent job losses, reflecting widespread anxiety about the future of work [9]. Group 3: Economic Resilience and Job Creation - Economists argue that capitalism has a strong resilience, often leading to job creation following technological advancements, as seen with ATMs and software like Excel [8]. - The BLS forecasts a 3.1% employment growth rate over the next decade, which, while lower than previous years, still represents the addition of 5 million jobs [8]. Group 4: The Role of Policy and Corporate Responsibility - There is a growing concern that corporate leaders are prioritizing automation and efficiency over employee welfare, leading to potential mass layoffs [22][23]. - The article suggests that CEOs are under pressure to demonstrate the benefits of AI quickly, often resulting in job cuts rather than exploring ways to integrate AI while supporting their workforce [22][23]. - Proposals for policies such as retraining programs and a robot tax to support displaced workers are discussed, but there is skepticism about their implementation [33][28]. Group 5: Political and Social Implications - The political landscape is characterized by a lack of proactive measures to address the challenges posed by AI, with many lawmakers adopting a hands-off approach [26][27]. - The article emphasizes the need for a coordinated response to the potential upheaval caused by AI, suggesting that without intervention, the consequences could be severe for both the economy and society [30][31].

钛媒体App 2月12日消息，美联储官员施密德表示，人工智能与近期生产力提升之间的联系尚不明确； 进一步降息可能导致高通胀持续存在。（广角观察） ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent events surrounding Ball Corporation is based on its fiscal year 2025 performance meeting and strategic planning [1] Group 2 - The company plans to achieve its $500 million productivity enhancement goal by the end of 2026, ahead of the original target of the end of 2027, with good progress reported [2] Group 3 - Annual capital expenditures are maintained at approximately $600 million, primarily directed towards regional capacity expansion projects with long-term purchase agreements, such as new capacity in the North American market [3] Group 4 - Management has provided growth guidance for 2026 across various regions: North America is expected to grow by 1-3%, Europe by 3-5%, and South America by 4-6%, considering regional volatility [4] Group 5 - The company reaffirms its financial targets for 2030, which include earnings per share (EPS) reaching $5.80 and free cash flow increasing to $10-13 billion, while continuously optimizing costs through operational excellence programs [5] Group 6 - The company is implementing the Ball Business System across its 66 global factories to enhance operational stability through standardized production and daily handover mechanisms, addressing market fluctuations [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported full year organic sales growth of 2%, operating EBITDA growth of 6%, and adjusted EPS of $1.68 per share, up 16% year-over-year [5][6][12] - Free cash flow generation was strong, with expectations for 2026 to exceed 90% conversion [12][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Healthcare and water technologies saw fourth quarter net sales of $821 million, up 4% year-over-year, driven by 3% organic growth [17] - Diversified industrials reported fourth quarter net sales of $872 million, a 3% decrease year-over-year, with a 4% organic decline [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic growth in Europe was up 2% year-over-year, while Asia-Pacific was down 2% [16] - The automotive market is expected to remain flat in 2026, with electric vehicle builds anticipated to outpace overall builds [12][71] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive above-market organic growth and deploy a balanced capital allocation model while enhancing core values and operational excellence [8][11] - The strategic priorities for 2026 include launching over 125 new products, which generated more than $2 billion in sales [8][57] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a mixed macro environment, with healthcare and water technologies expected to grow mid-single digits, while automotive demand is flat [12][13] - The company is optimistic about order trends in industrial technologies, indicating a stabilization and recovery in those markets [14] Other Important Information - The company completed the separation of QUNITY Electronics and is focused on operational and portfolio transformation [6][7] - A $2 billion share repurchase authorization was announced, with $500 million executed in the fourth quarter of 2025 [11][49] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on industrial production trends - Management indicated that industrial orders are picking up, particularly in aerospace, with low double-digit improvements noted [31] Question: Pricing and inflation outlook - The company expects no significant headwinds from inflation and anticipates improvements in gross margins due to productivity initiatives [32] Question: Shelter business outlook - The shelter business is expected to start slightly down but improve throughout the year, aiming for flat performance overall [39] Question: Vitality Index context - The Vitality Index of 30% reflects a mix of replacement and growth, with efforts to shift towards more growth-oriented products [41][43] Question: Margin improvements in diversified industrials - Margin expansion was driven by favorable mix and productivity, with benefits from ongoing initiatives expected in the future [55] Question: M&A opportunities - The company is actively scouting M&A opportunities, particularly in healthcare, to enhance its portfolio [50][105] Question: Water business growth in China - Slower growth in China is attributed to reduced industrial production, but the company expects to ramp up in the latter half of the year [66] Question: Overall cash management and capital allocation - The company aims to maintain around $1 billion in cash and will deploy capital based on shareholder value, balancing M&A and share repurchases [89]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, reported sales increased by 14% to $963 million, up from $848 million in the prior year, while core sales grew by 5% [3][4] - Full-year reported sales rose by 5% to $3.8 billion, compared to $3.6 billion in the previous year, with core sales up by 2% [6][25] - Reported net income increased by 5% to $393 million, and reported earnings per share grew by 7% to $5.89 [6][25] - Adjusted earnings per share were $5.74, a slight decline of 1% compared to the prior year [7][25] - Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased to 19.8% from 23% in the prior year due to higher production costs and unfavorable product mix [17][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Pharma segment core sales increased by 4%, with prescription core sales up by 1% and injectables core sales rising by 24% [17][18] - Beauty segment core sales grew by 10%, driven by strong demand in fragrance and personal care [20][21] - Closures segment core sales increased by 1%, with beverage core sales up by 7% while food core sales decreased by 1% [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong demand was noted in the pharma market, particularly for systemic nasal drug delivery and injectables [4][18] - The beauty market showed double-digit growth, especially in fragrance and skincare categories, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [20][21] - The closures market experienced mixed results, with beverage sales increasing while food sales declined [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on cost reduction initiatives and productivity measures to enhance operational efficiency [4][30] - Continued investment in innovation and technology is emphasized, particularly in the pharma segment with a strong pipeline of drug delivery systems [8][9] - The company aims to maintain a disciplined approach to capital allocation while returning capital to shareholders [7][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates continued strong growth in the pharma segment, excluding emergency medicine, which is expected to face headwinds [28][32] - The beauty segment is showing signs of recovery, particularly in prestige fragrance, while closures are expected to perform steadily [32] - Management remains confident in achieving long-term growth targets despite short-term challenges [28][32] Other Important Information - The company returned $486 million to shareholders in 2025 through share repurchases and dividends, marking its 32nd consecutive year of increasing dividends [7][26] - A new share repurchase authorization of up to $600 million was announced, replacing all existing authorizations [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is there any deceleration in GLP-1 demand in elastomers in 2026? - Management expects injectables to grow in the high single digits to low double digits, with GLP-1 being an important but not sole driver of growth [35][39] Question: What is the expectation for EBITDA margin trends throughout the year? - Margins are expected to improve significantly in the second half of the year, driven by productivity measures and reduced impact from emergency medicine declines [40][41] Question: Can you provide specifics on margin performance in beauty and closures? - Management acknowledged operational issues in beauty and closures but expects steady improvements in margins as these issues are resolved [50][51] Question: What is the outlook for emergency medicine sales? - A revenue headwind of approximately $65 million is anticipated for 2026, primarily affecting the first half of the year [28][66] Question: How does the company view growth in the Narcan business? - Management anticipates low to mid-single-digit growth from the new baseline for Narcan, with potential for geographic expansion [74] Question: What are the expectations for cough and cold product demand? - Management expects to provide updates on the strength of the cough and cold season by Q1 or Q2, with indications of a strong season this year [76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales for the quarter were $386 million, down 5% year-over-year, with the Avoca divestiture accounting for approximately $10 million or about 2% of the decline [10] - Adjusted EBITDA was $58 million, down 5% year-over-year, including a $1 million impact from the Avoca divestiture [11] - Adjusted EPS, excluding intangible amortization, was $0.26, down 7% from the prior year [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Life Sciences sales were $139 million, up 4% from the prior year, driven by resilient pharma demand and strength in high-value cellulosic excipients [14] - Personal Care sales were $123 million, down 8% year-over-year, primarily due to the Evoca divestiture, with organic sales declining 1% [18] - Specialty Additives sales were $102 million, down 11% year-over-year, with coatings and construction driving the decline [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Coatings demand was particularly weak in China and select export markets, while construction softness reflected broader market conditions [5] - Life Sciences continued to grow, supported by steady demand and ongoing innovation momentum [10] - Specialty Additives faced muted demand, particularly in coatings and construction [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its strategic priorities, including innovation and globalized initiatives, to drive growth and improve margins [4] - The total cost savings target of approximately $30 million for fiscal 2026 remains on track, with ongoing efforts in network optimization and productivity improvements [25] - The company aims to deliver structural cost improvements and enhance systems and processes to strengthen performance [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted ongoing demand softness in coatings and construction but expressed optimism about improving momentum in Life Sciences and Personal Care [4] - The outlook for fiscal 2026 has been narrowed to an adjusted EBITDA range of $400 million to $420 million, reflecting a prudent view of market conditions [28] - Temporary impacts from operational challenges, including delays in the Calvert City unit startup and weather-related disruptions, are expected to affect the second quarter [30] Other Important Information - The company reported strong cash generation with $125 million from operating activities and $26 million of ongoing free cash flow [12] - Total liquidity at the end of the quarter was approximately $900 million, with net debt at $1.1 billion and net leverage at 2.7x [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the customer outage impacting demand in Personal Care? - Management confirmed that the outages were on the customer side and not related to supply issues from the company. Most outages have been resolved, and recovery is expected in Q2 [43][44] Question: Should we see volumes start to turn the corner in Personal Care? - Management indicated that with the Evoca divestiture now lapped, they expect to see positive volume growth as the year progresses, with most customers indicating flat to low single-digit growth [48] Question: On the China coatings demand, is there a line of sight to the bottom? - Management noted that while the market has been challenging, they expect to see easing in the second half of the year, with efforts focused on commercial discipline, productivity, and innovation [61][62]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, with a growth forecast of 2% for 2025 and 2.9% for 2026, indicating a potential upward revision compared to market consensus [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the market consensus may underestimate the growth potential of the U.S. economy, with actual conditions possibly presenting upward risks [1][4]. - It emphasizes that the negative impact of tariffs is expected to diminish, with effective tariff rates slightly decreasing, and anticipates that the White House will not significantly raise tariffs ahead of the midterm elections [1][5]. - The Federal Reserve is projected to delay interest rate cuts until June, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points, bringing the final rate to between 3% and 3.25% [1][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Forecast - The report predicts a quarterly growth of 2.5% in Q4 2026 and an annual growth of 2.9%, which is approximately 0.5 percentage points higher than market consensus [2]. - The growth outlook for 2025 is characterized as a "tariff drag" year, while 2026 is expected to be a "tax cut stimulus" year [2]. Labor Market Trends - Current job creation is insufficient, with a need for approximately 60,000 to 70,000 new jobs monthly to stabilize the labor market [1][8]. - Despite discussions of layoffs and AI deployment, initial unemployment claims remain low, indicating that while risks exist, they do not warrant excessive concern [9]. Inflation and Consumer Spending - The report anticipates that core PCE inflation will decrease to 2.1% by December, with core CPI expected to reach 2% [3][10]. - Consumer spending is projected to maintain a growth rate of around 2%, supported by real wage growth and tax cuts [10].

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 证券研究报告 | 分析师： [Tabl | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003674 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 美联储 2026 年 1 月 27-28 日举行议息会议1，FOMC 官员投票保持联邦基金利率在 3.5%-3.75%，这是自 2025 年 9 月重启降息后的第一次暂停。理事沃勒和米兰投反对票，倾向于在此次会议上降息 25 个基点。本次议息 会议决议在市场预期之内，相对更为重要的信息是：（1）美联储 ...

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 正文 美联储 2026 年 1 月 27-28 日举行议息会议 ， FOMC 官员投票保持联邦基金利率在 3.5%-3.75% ，这 是自 2025 年 9 月重启降息后的第一次暂停。理事沃勒和米兰投反对票，倾向于在此次会议上降息 25 个基 点。本次议息会议决议在市场预期之内，相对更为重要的信息是：（ 1 ）美联储对后续货币政策路径的表 态；（ 2 ）美联储对就业市场和通胀的评估。 2022 年 3 月、 5 月、 6 月、 7 月、 9 月、 11 月、 12 月以及 2023 年 2 月、 3 月、 5 月、 7 月美 联储先后十一次上调基准利率。其中 2022 年 3 月加息幅度为 25bp ， 5 月为 50bp ， 6 月 -11 月每次 加息 75bp ， 12 月为 50bp ， 2023 年 2 月、 3 月、 5 月、 7 月为 25bp ； 6 月为首次暂停加息， 9 月为第二次暂停， 11 月为第三次暂停， 12 月为第四次暂停， 2024 年 1 月为第五次暂停， 3 月为第六 次暂停， 5 ...