Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariffs' impact on US inflation has partially emerged, with varying effects on different commodities, and further inflation effects will depend on the domestic production process [3][12] - The US still needs restrictive monetary policy to curb inflation from the demand side, and the relatively normal wage growth helps suppress inflation [3][15] - Replacing the Fed Chair alone may not change the policy direction and could damage monetary policy credibility. The Fed's rate - cut rhythm depends on tariffs' impact on inflation, and currently, a rate cut restart in October is expected [3][16] - If the Fed "changes leadership" soon, it may benefit the precious metals market and steepen the US Treasury yield curve [3][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - Tariffs' impact on US inflation is partially reflected in terminal goods. Different products are affected differently, and the impact on inflation will further manifest with the domestic production process [3][12] - The US needs restrictive monetary policy to control inflation from the demand side. In June, the core commodity CPI expanded, and retail data showed resilience [3][15] - Replacing the Fed Chair may not change the overall FOMC attitude. The probability of Powell being replaced soon is low, and the Fed's rate - cut decision depends on tariff - inflation effects [3][16] - A list of high - frequency data's weekly环比 changes is provided, including data on food, other consumer goods, energy, metals, real estate, and shipping [19] High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trend Comparison - Multiple charts show the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators such as PPI, CPI, and export amounts [24][26][29] Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display US weekly economic indicators, employment data, sales data, financial conditions, and the implied interest - rate adjustment prospects of the Fed and ECB [84][86][91] Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - Charts present the seasonal trends of various high - frequency data, including production data, price indices, and real - estate - related data [95][99][109] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Charts show the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in these four cities [152][154]

Group 1 - The London gold market is currently experiencing a slight upward trend, with prices hovering around $3356.02 per ounce, marking a 0.01% increase from previous levels [1] - The highest price reached during the session was $3373.69 per ounce, while the lowest dipped to $3354.86 per ounce, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in gold prices [1] Group 2 - The upcoming release of the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a focal point for the market, with Barclays strategists noting that historical data shows this month typically has the highest deviation from expectations [2] - The interpretation of current data should consider the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies, which could significantly influence inflation readings and market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - Brandywine Global Investment Management highlights that future inflation reports will reflect the effects of the trade war, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may lack the impetus to cut rates in September due to resilient employment and asset valuation concerns [2]

Group 1 - The trend of "steepening" in the U.S. Treasury yield curve has become more pronounced, with the difference between the 30-year and 5-year Treasury yields exceeding 100 basis points, reaching 102 basis points, the highest level since 2021 [1] - The decline in short-term Treasury yields is occurring at a faster pace than that of long-term yields, reflecting increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and a shift of funds from short-term to long-term Treasuries [1][2] - The difference in yields between the 30-year and 5-year Treasuries has expanded significantly from around 40 basis points at the beginning of the year to over 100 basis points in recent weeks, indicating a notable change in market sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have increased, with the probability of a rate cut in July rising to 20.7% from 14.5% a week prior, and the probability for September rising to 90.2% from 69.6% [2] - There is a divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing of a rate cut, with some supporting a cut in July while others maintain a cautious stance [2][3] - Overall, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut by 2025 is increasing, with potential cuts expected in September or October [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. bond market is experiencing an unprecedented crisis of confidence, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%, nearing the highest level since the 2007 financial crisis [1] - Concerns about the long-term fiscal situation of the U.S. are deepening, as the total federal debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio over 124%, significantly above international warning levels [1] - Interest payments on the debt are projected to exceed $1 trillion in the fiscal year 2024, becoming the third-largest government expenditure, surpassing defense spending [1] Group 2 - Major Wall Street investment firms are shifting to risk-averse strategies, systematically avoiding 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds and reallocating funds to mid-term bonds (5 to 10 years) [3] - These mid-term bonds offer relatively attractive returns while effectively reducing interest rate risk exposure, as firms like Pacific Investment Management Company adopt similar defensive strategies [3] - This collective adjustment in investment portfolios has yielded positive risk control outcomes this year, with investors seeking higher risk compensation for long-term lending to the U.S. government in the current fiscal environment [3] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is exhibiting a rare steepening trend, with the 30-year yield rising significantly while short-term yields (2-year, 5-year) are declining [4] - The difference between the 30-year and 5-year yields has surpassed 100 basis points for the first time since 2021, indicating substantial selling pressure on long-term bonds [4] - Recent bond auctions from major economies, including the U.S. and Japan, have faced weak demand, raising concerns about the future demand for long-term government bonds [4]