本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【英国政府预计11月秋季预算中提高税收】9月19日消息，因8月公共部门借款数据比预期糟糕，英国政 府预计在11月26日秋季预算中提高税收。8月公共部门借款达180亿英镑，高于预算责任办公室预测的 125亿英镑，也高于专家普遍预测的135亿英镑。鉴于财政缺口不断扩大，增税幅度目前尚不确定。 ...

Revenue and Fiscal Performance - In June, general public budget revenue was 1.89 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.3%, marking a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Non-tax revenue in June fell by 3.7% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.5 percentage points compared to May, primarily due to a high base from the previous year[3] - Tax revenue in June showed a slight year-on-year increase of 1.0%, recovering by 0.4 percentage points from May but still below April levels[3] Expenditure and Budget Deficit - June fiscal expenditure grew by only 0.4% year-on-year, a significant drop of 2.2 percentage points from May, continuing a downward trend for the second consecutive month[4] - Cumulative fiscal expenditure for the first half of the year increased by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing revenue growth by 3.7 percentage points, indicating stable support for total consumption and investment demand[4] - The budget deficit for the first half of the year reached 2.57 trillion, an increase of 0.5 trillion year-on-year, raising the need for government bond financing[4] Government Fund and Debt Issuance - Government fund budget revenue in June rebounded sharply by 28.9% year-on-year, with land transfer fees contributing significantly to this increase, rising by 36.5 percentage points from May[5] - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June, driven by accelerated issuance of special government bonds, with total expenditure growth for the first half of the year reaching 30%[5] - The overall budget deficit for government funds in the first half of the year reached 2.68 trillion, a substantial increase of 1.1 trillion year-on-year[5] Future Outlook and Risks - The fiscal revenue shortfall is expected to widen further, potentially triggering the issuance of special government bonds if three conditions are met, including low inflation and continued pressure on tax revenue[6] - The financing progress for government bonds has already reached 55.2% of the annual plan, significantly higher than the same period in 2024 and 2023[6] - Risks include the possibility of fiscal expansion being lower than expected, which could impact the effectiveness of consumption and investment stimulus measures[6]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that UK Chancellor Reeves faces significant challenges in advancing government policy while adhering to self-imposed fiscal rules [1] Group 1: IMF Recommendations - IMF urges Reeves to "optimize" the budget framework to enhance fiscal flexibility [1] - The IMF's annual economic report highlights that while the government's proposed reforms are on the right track, fiscal maneuverability is limited [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The impact of the Trump trade war is noted as a factor that complicates the implementation of proposed reforms [1] - As of March, the estimated fiscal space under the main fiscal rules was £9.9 billion, but weak economic growth has forced Reeves to adjust planned public spending cuts [1] Group 3: Fiscal Challenges - Some economists predict that by the autumn budget, Reeves may face a fiscal gap exceeding £20 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK may address its fiscal deficit by increasing tax rates and cutting government spending, as indicated by analysts from TD Securities [1] Group 1: Fiscal Situation - The UK's public finances remain fragile due to the impact of global tariffs [1] - The Labour Party's decision to cancel spending cuts on welfare legislation adds pressure to the already strained fiscal situation [1] Group 2: Budget Considerations - An additional fiscal space of £10 billion to £20 billion may be required for the upcoming autumn budget [1] - The exact figures for the fiscal space will depend on monthly tax revenues and expenditures leading up to the autumn budget [1]

Group 1 - The Labour Party in the UK is experiencing internal divisions and criticism of Prime Minister Starmer's leadership, with calls for stronger performance in the upcoming local elections [1] - Chancellor Rachel Reeves' emotional moment during a parliamentary session has intensified doubts about the government's capability [1] - Starmer and Reeves presented a 10-year plan for the National Health Service, attempting to showcase political unity amid challenges [1] Group 2 - Starmer's economic goals for "national revival" are progressing slowly, with Labour's support dropping from 34% to 24% since July last year, trailing behind the Reform Party [2] - The political turmoil is causing voters to overlook potential improvements in their lives, complicating the implementation and expected economic impact of policies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, stated that the permanent retention of tax provisions in the Republican bill will provide certainty, aiming for approximately a 3% fiscal gap by 2028 [1] Group 1 - The Republican bill includes tax provisions that, if made permanent, will enhance fiscal predictability [1] - The target is to achieve a fiscal gap of around 3% by the year 2028 [1]