社服行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251230 摘要 国家政策支持内需扩张，老龄化和 Z 世代崛起驱动体验式、个性化消费， 康养旅游和新消费成投资重点。 旅游出行行业持续复苏，各地促销活动显著推动，景区产业资源整合加 速，行业向高质量发展。 OTA 平台占据旅游产业链重要地位，美团、携程等通过差异化竞争提升 盈利能力并巩固核心竞争力。 酒店行业与经济状况密切相关，需求分化下供给降速，头部企业具备溢 价能力，建议关注首旅锦江、华住及亚朵等龙头企业。 免税行业关注度提升，低基数效应下数据转正，高货值商品比例提升客 单价，海南封关及新政带来增长空间，关注中免、王府井及珠海免税。 本地生活领域竞争激烈，美团面临京东、阿里等竞争对手，长期价值回 归存在分歧，但仍是值得关注的重要标的。 K12 教育领域政策逐步稳定和市场复苏，龙头企业如好未来、新东方等 受益于品牌力、教学质量和扩张能力。 Q&A 2026 年服务业消费的投资机会有哪些？ 旅游出行行业在 2026 年的发展趋势如何？ 随着全球重新开放及复苏，旅游出行行业将继续回暖。无论是出境游还是国内 游，都处于持续复苏状态。各地文旅部门和 OTA 平台（如美团、携程 ...

Core Insights - The performance divergence among the three major public examination training companies is becoming increasingly evident, with Huatu Shandeng showing significant growth while others like Zhonggong Education are experiencing declines [2][4] Financial Performance - Huatu Shandeng reported a revenue of 2.464 billion yuan for the first three quarters, an increase of 15.65%, and a net profit of 249 million yuan, up 92.48%. After excluding employee stock ownership plan factors, the operating net profit reached 294 million yuan, growing by 127.9% [2] - In contrast, Zhonggong Education's revenue for the same period was 1.657 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.09%, with a net profit of 91.97 million yuan, down 45.31% [2] Market Dynamics - Huatu's growth is attributed to its scale and market leadership, with 1,016 branches as of June 2025, 57.5% more than Zhonggong Education, and a workforce exceeding 10,000, about 32% more than its competitors [2] - The overall industry is under pressure due to oversupply and intense competition from numerous small institutions that are aggressively targeting lower-tier markets [2][6] Strategic Initiatives - Huatu is implementing a "product + delivery" dual-driven strategy, focusing on high-standard delivery base construction and significant investments in AI technology [3][9] - The company plans to establish multiple large-scale training bases by mid-2025, aiming to maintain a competitive edge in service delivery [6][8] Competitive Landscape - The competition for public service examination positions is intensifying, with the average competition ratio increasing from 39:1 in 2021 to 98:1 by 2026 [4] - The shift in student preferences towards returning home for exam preparation has led to a focus on establishing high-standard delivery bases in lower-tier cities [5][7] AI Integration - AI technology is becoming a key driver for sustainable development in the education and training sector, helping to resolve the challenges of large-scale, high-quality, and personalized education [9] - Huatu's R&D expenses surged by 160.41% to 145 million yuan in the first three quarters, with a focus on developing a comprehensive suite of 20 AI products covering all learning scenarios [10] - The company has successfully integrated AI into various aspects of its training, significantly reducing costs and enhancing service delivery, with AI-generated exam questions costing only 42% of traditional methods [11]