证 券 研 究 报 告 科顺股份（300737）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 单季盈利能力持续承压，毛利率改善 目标价：6.10 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年第三季度报告，前三季度实现营业收入 47.03 亿元，同比下 降 8.43%；归母 净利 润/ 扣非归 母净利 润 2009/-5774 万元，同 比下 降 84.08%/1623.35%。其中第三季度实现营业收入 14.83 亿元，同比下降 10.93%； 归母净利润/扣非归母净利润-2687/-4409 万元，同比下降 183.10%/16.79%。 评论： ❖ 风险提示：原材料价格大幅波动、地产超预期下行，应收账款恶化。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 6,829 | 6,229 | 6,008 | 6,107 | | 同比增速(%) | -14.0% | -8.8% | -3.5% | 1.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 44 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 15.45 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 12.28 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.319 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.25%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 30.44% to 629 million CNY, primarily due to gains from the fair value changes of its investment in Hanhai Group [2][3]. - The company experienced a significant improvement in operating cash flow, with a net inflow of 473 million CNY for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.67% [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.684 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.03%. The net profit for the same quarter was 361 million CNY, up 51.67% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit dropped by 50.61% to 94.92 million CNY [1][2]. Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 17.60%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 9.96%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, although the non-recurring net profit margin decreased to 5.27%, down 1.33 percentage points [3]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in rural areas and furniture factories, enhancing its channel operations. It aims to upgrade traditional retail channels and strengthen partnerships with local custom furniture manufacturers [4][9]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 9.283 billion CNY, 10.056 billion CNY, and 10.913 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 772 million CNY, 857 million CNY, and 1.034 billion CNY [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in revenue due to downward demand and intense market price competition, with a year-on-year revenue decrease of 5.06% in the first three quarters of 2025. However, Q3 showed a positive revenue growth of 8.51% compared to the same quarter last year, attributed to a low base effect from the previous year [2][4]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 36.61% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a narrowing decline in Q3 to 26.58%. This decline is primarily due to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in impairment losses [2][4]. - The company has effectively controlled its expense ratio, resulting in a significant improvement in operating cash flow, which increased by 184.56% year-on-year to 416 million yuan [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 20.601 billion yuan, with quarterly revenues showing a trend of -16.71% in Q1, -5.64% in Q2, and +8.51% in Q3 [2][4]. - The gross margin for the period was 25.19%, a decrease of 3.94 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to intense market competition [3]. Profitability - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 810 million yuan, with a quarterly decline of -44.68% in Q1, -37.52% in Q2, and -26.58% in Q3, indicating a narrowing decline trend [2][4]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 3.82%, down 1.99 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Cash Flow and Expenses - The operating cash flow for the period was a net inflow of 416 million yuan, significantly improved due to enhanced collection efforts and reduced cash payments for goods and services [3]. - The company maintained a total expense ratio of 16.61%, down 1.95 percentage points year-on-year, with reductions in sales, management, financial, and R&D expense ratios [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 25.436 billion yuan, 26.554 billion yuan, and 27.833 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The net profit is forecasted to rebound significantly in 2025, reaching 1.227 billion yuan, with substantial growth rates in subsequent years [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 12.32 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 10.31 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.367 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.76%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 540 million CNY, down 13.52% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit decreased by 19.94% [1][9]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a downturn in industry demand and intensified competition, with retail and engineering businesses facing pressure. However, the revenue decline in Q3 showed signs of narrowing compared to previous quarters [1][3]. - Investment income increased by 56 million CNY year-on-year, contributing positively to the non-recurring gains [1]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 41.47%, down 1.02 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by declining demand and competitive pressures. The net profit margin was 16.02%, a decrease of 0.78 percentage points [2]. - Operating cash flow showed a positive trend with a net inflow of 948 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.66% [2]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is a leading player in the PPR pipe market, focusing on product and service innovation. It is accelerating the expansion of its "Concentric Circle" business and the implementation of the "Weixing Whole House Water Ecology" initiative [3]. - The engineering business is concentrating on core regions and high-quality clients, while the international business is leveraging the "Belt and Road" initiative to enhance market presence [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.699 billion CNY, 6.048 billion CNY, and 6.389 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -9.05%, 6.12%, and 5.64% [9][10]. - The net profit forecasts for the same years are 824 million CNY, 886 million CNY, and 951 million CNY, with corresponding growth rates of -13.48%, 7.50%, and 7.32% [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 29.54 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 23.65 CNY as of October 27, 2025 [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 19.905 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.25%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.586 billion CNY, down 17.77% year-on-year. The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to a decrease in demand in the gypsum board, waterproofing, and coating sectors [1][2]. - The company is actively pursuing overseas expansion, including a potential acquisition of a foreign building materials company, which aligns with its strategic focus on Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Mediterranean region [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.347 billion CNY, a decline of 6.20% year-on-year, and a net profit of 657 million CNY, down 29.47% year-on-year. The revenue growth rates for Q1, Q2, and Q3 were 5.09%, -4.46%, and -6.20%, respectively [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 29.53%, a decrease of 1.12 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intense market competition and rising costs [2]. - The operating cash flow for the period was a net inflow of 1.539 billion CNY, a decrease of 43.13% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced cash receipts from sales compared to the previous year [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on international expansion, with a strategic plan to enhance its presence in various global markets. The Thai gypsum board production line has entered trial production, and the project in Bosnia is progressing smoothly [3]. - The company aims to leverage its strong acquisition and integration capabilities as a state-owned enterprise to enhance its international brand influence and open up growth opportunities abroad [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to generate revenues of 25.922 billion CNY, 27.810 billion CNY, and 29.709 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.39%, 7.29%, and 6.83%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 3.208 billion CNY, 3.588 billion CNY, and 3.961 billion CNY for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of -12.04%, 11.84%, and 10.40% [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][15]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.569 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 10.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 564 million yuan, down 40.16% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights an increase in the proportion of revenue from channel sales and a significant push in overseas expansion [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand perception among end consumers through the launch of a new service brand targeting the C-end market [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Net Profit: The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 28.056 billion yuan in 2024 to 35.858 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.3% [4]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS is expected to increase from 0.05 yuan in 2024 to 0.89 yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery after a projected drop in 2025 [4]. - Profitability Ratios: The gross margin is expected to improve from 25.8% in 2024 to 28.6% in 2027, indicating better cost management and pricing strategies [9]. Revenue Breakdown - Sales Channels: In the first half of 2025, retail and engineering channels contributed 51 billion yuan and 63 billion yuan to revenue, respectively, with channel sales accounting for 84.06% of total revenue [2]. - Product Categories: Revenue from waterproof membranes, coatings, and mortar products showed declines, but new product categories demonstrated resilience with a 46.97% increase in revenue from engineering construction [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Global Expansion: The company is accelerating its overseas supply chain and channel development, with significant operations established in the US, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Canada [2]. - New Service Brand: The launch of the "Yuhong" brand aims to enhance consumer engagement and drive collaboration with manufacturers [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report projects EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.58, 0.70, and 0.89 yuan per share, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19x, 16x, and 13x [2][4]. - A target price of 14.5 yuan per share is set based on a 25x PE for 2025, reflecting the company's potential for recovery and growth despite current market challenges [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 30.42 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 26.68 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company's revenue and performance are under pressure, primarily due to a decline in the gypsum board and keel business, while the paint business has shown significant growth [2][3]. - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 13.558 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.29% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.930 billion CNY, down 12.85% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its two wings of business, with waterproofing materials and paint showing positive revenue growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 135.58 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 0.29%. The revenue drop is mainly attributed to the decline in gypsum board and keel business [2]. - The revenue breakdown for H1 2025 includes: gypsum board at 66.77 billion CNY (down 8.57% YoY), keel at 11.37 billion CNY (down 10.72% YoY), waterproofing materials at 17.20 billion CNY (up 0.63% YoY), and paint at 25.11 billion CNY (up 40.82% YoY) [2]. Profitability - The company's gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 30.35%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in gross margin is attributed to decreased demand and intense market competition [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 improved to 31.55%, an increase of 2.61 percentage points from Q1, mainly due to a price increase for gypsum board products implemented on March 5 [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its position as a leader in the gypsum board industry while actively expanding its waterproofing and paint businesses, which are experiencing rapid revenue growth [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 27.609 billion CNY, 30.037 billion CNY, and 32.422 billion CNY, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 6.93%, 8.79%, and 7.94% [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for the company [5] Core Views - The company continues to face revenue and profit declines due to weak downstream demand and intensified industry competition, with a year-on-year revenue decrease of 11.33% in the first half of 2025 [2][3] - Despite the pressure on profitability, the company's operating cash flow has significantly increased by 99.10% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced raw material purchases [3] - The company is focusing on its core business in retail, enhancing product iteration and service innovation, while also expanding its "One Circle" business and "Weixing Whole House Water Ecology" initiatives [4][8] Revenue and Profit Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.078 billion yuan, down 11.33% year-on-year, with quarterly revenue declines of 10.20% and 12.17% in Q1 and Q2 respectively [2] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 271 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.25%, with the decline in net profit outpacing revenue due to decreased gross margins and increased expense ratios [2][3] Margin and Cash Flow Analysis - The gross margin for the main business in the first half of 2025 was 40.80%, a decrease of 1.70 percentage points year-on-year, with varying margins across product lines [3] - The company reported a net inflow of operating cash flow of 581 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a significant increase due to lower raw material expenditures [3] Business Strategy and Outlook - The company is enhancing its competitive edge in the retail sector as a leading PPR enterprise, while also optimizing its engineering business and expanding international operations [4][8] - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 5.699 billion yuan, 6.048 billion yuan, and 6.389 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -9.05%, 6.12%, and 5.64% respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 13.2 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 11.72 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 was 6.267 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 1.75%, with a net profit of 953 million CNY, down 33.49% year-over-year. The decline in net profit was greater than the revenue decline due to multiple factors including decreased gross margin, increased expense ratio, reduced investment income, and increased impairment [2][3]. - The "Same Circle" business segment maintained growth, with revenue from waterproof and other products increasing by 12.94% year-over-year, while the engineering business experienced a decline, significantly impacting overall revenue [2][4]. - The company proposed a cash dividend of 5.00 CNY per 10 shares, significantly increasing the dividend payout ratio, which reflects a commitment to returning value to shareholders [4][8]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's sales gross margin was 41.72%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to intensified market competition and the lower margin of acquired companies. The gross margin for Q4 was 40.56%, down 4.32 percentage points year-over-year [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow decreased by 16.49% year-over-year, amounting to 1.147 billion CNY [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.581 billion CNY, 7.124 billion CNY, and 7.708 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-over-year growth rates of 5.02%, 8.24%, and 8.20%. The net profit forecasts for the same years are 1.051 billion CNY, 1.196 billion CNY, and 1.344 billion CNY, with respective growth rates of 10.29%, 13.83%, and 12.40% [8][10].