Core Viewpoint - The demand continues to decline and is still searching for a bottom, with various economic indicators showing signs of weakness in August [4][10]. Demand Analysis - In August, the total retail sales (社零) grew by 3.4% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.3 percentage points compared to July, marking the third consecutive month of decline [4][10]. - The structure of retail sales reflects a continued slowdown, particularly in the "old-for-new" category, which saw a decrease from 5.0% to 4.4% in growth [4][10]. - High-frequency data indicates that retail sales of home appliances and passenger vehicles have shown negative year-on-year growth since September, suggesting significant pressure on retail growth for the remainder of the year [4][10]. Fixed Asset Investment - Cumulative fixed asset investment growth fell to 0.5% year-on-year in the first eight months, down from 1.6% in July, with a month-on-month seasonally adjusted decline of 0.2% [5][6]. - The construction and installation sector remains a major drag, contributing a 1.6 percentage point decline to fixed asset investment, which has widened by 1.0 percentage points compared to the first seven months [5][6]. - Investment in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing showed year-on-year declines of -12.9%, +5.4%, and +5.1%, respectively, with all sectors experiencing a decrease compared to the previous month [5][6]. Real Estate Market - The sales area of newly built commercial housing in August saw a year-on-year decline of -10.6%, worsening from -7.8% in July, while the sales amount remained stable at -14.0% [28][29]. - The funding situation for real estate companies improved slightly, with the year-on-year decline in funds received narrowing to -11.9% from -15.8% in July, but new construction and project areas continue to show significant declines [29][30]. - The overall real estate sales volume and price improvement is contingent upon effective policies that enhance supply and demand dynamics [29][30]. Production Sector - The industrial value-added and service production indices in August were 5.2% and 5.6% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a continued decline in production growth [8][10]. - The export delivery value turned negative in August, with a year-on-year decline of -0.4%, reflecting weak domestic demand and certain industry pressures [8][10]. Market Performance - Despite the weak economic data, the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have shown strong performance, reaching new highs for the year, driven by emotional and liquidity factors [10][11]. - The market's short-term volatility is expected to increase, but the underlying bullish trend remains intact, supported by structural improvements in key industries [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - North Huajin Chemical Industries Co., Ltd. reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to weak global economic growth, fluctuating international oil prices, and increased domestic production capacity [1][2]. Company Overview and Key Financial Indicators - The company is primarily engaged in the production and sale of petrochemicals and chemical fertilizers, with major products including diesel, polypropylene, polyethylene, and various chemical fertilizers [2][3]. - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately CNY 20.10 billion, a decrease of 5.01% compared to CNY 21.16 billion in the same period last year [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of CNY 989.14 million, worsening from a loss of CNY 742.89 million year-on-year, representing a 33.15% decline [3][4]. - The company reported a basic earnings per share of -0.6184, down 33.13% from -0.4645 in the previous year [3][4]. Main Business Analysis - The petrochemical sector accounted for 86.47% of total revenue, while the chemical fertilizer sector contributed 4.47% [6][7]. - The sales revenue from the petrochemical sector was CNY 17.38 billion, down 5.73% from the previous year, while the chemical fertilizer sector saw a 17.75% decline in revenue [6][7]. - The company has implemented various strategies to optimize production and enhance operational efficiency, including the use of advanced management systems and collaboration with major oil companies [2][3]. Financial Performance and Cost Management - Operating costs decreased by 5.30% to CNY 17.91 billion, reflecting efforts to control expenses amid declining revenues [4][5]. - The company has focused on cost control measures, including reducing unnecessary expenditures and optimizing procurement strategies to mitigate the impact of fluctuating raw material prices [2][3]. - Cash flow from operating activities was reported at -CNY 3.04 billion, showing a slight improvement of 0.32% compared to the previous year [4][5]. Asset and Liability Status - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were approximately CNY 27.37 billion, down 2.50% from the previous year [8]. - The company's net assets attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.75% to CNY 10.48 billion [8]. Investment and Financing Activities - The company reported a significant increase in financing activities, with net cash flow from financing activities reaching CNY 1.70 billion, a 548.43% increase compared to the previous year [4][5]. - The company has utilized part of its idle funds to supplement working capital, with a temporary use of CNY 300 million approved by shareholders [10][11]. Future Development and Strategic Focus - The company aims to enhance its competitive edge by focusing on high-value product development and optimizing its industrial chain [2][3]. - Plans include strengthening communication with key stakeholders and improving operational efficiency to adapt to market changes [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The policy signal of supply - side optimization brings positive long - term expectations for the supply - demand contradiction of PVC, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction remains prominent. The export volume may decline in the third quarter, and the anti - dumping tax decision in mid - July will affect future exports. The PVC inventory is lower than the same period in 23 - 24, and the pressure is limited. The short - term disk is strong, but the upward space should be viewed with caution [6]. - For caustic soda, the supply - side optimization expectation boosts market sentiment, and the price rebounds. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, but high profits stimulate high production. The downstream non - aluminum market is in the off - season, and the alumina purchase price adjustment has limited support for the caustic soda price. After the stimulus news, there is low - price speculative demand. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Methanol The port's inventory accumulation, Iranian device restart, and MTO device shutdown increase the port's inventory pressure and weaken the basis. The inland market is weak due to high production and the off - season of demand, but the increase in maintenance plans in July eases the supply pressure. Overall, the upward and downward space of methanol is limited, and interval operation is recommended [10]. LLDPE and PP PP and PE are in a state of supply contraction, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations, driving inventory reduction. The weighted valuation has been repaired, and the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, but there is still overall pressure. In the short - term, attention can be paid to the support brought by de - stocking. For PP, it is recommended to short when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [13]. Urea The urea disk is mainly driven by macro - policies. The anti - involution policy stimulates the commodity market, and the export collection and device maintenance support the price. However, weak industrial demand and unclear export quotas limit the upward space. It is necessary to track policy details, agricultural demand progress, and device maintenance dynamics. The disk needs export and downstream demand support to continue to rise [19]. Crude Oil Oil prices are oscillating weakly due to concerns about trade negotiations and OPEC+ supply decisions. The increase in US crude oil inventory further exacerbates supply pressure. The future trend depends on the OPEC+ meeting and trade negotiation results. It is recommended to wait and see, with resistance levels for WTI at [66, 67], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [510, 520] [77]. Styrene The pure benzene market rebounds weakly, supported by crude oil and affected by the possible resumption of US ethane exports to China. High imports and production suppress the pure benzene price. The styrene market in East China is stable, with a strong basis before the end - of - month paper delivery. High - price transactions are limited. In the medium - term, high profits may lead to over - supply, and attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities [73]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply - demand is tight in the short - term, but with the PXN repair, some device maintenance may be postponed. The PX drive is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, with the PX09 oscillating in the 6600 - 6900 range [81]. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to weaken in July, and the basis has weakened. The absolute price is under pressure but supported by raw materials. It is recommended to short at the upper limit of the 4600 - 4900 range and conduct a rolling reverse spread for TA9 - 1 [81]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply is increasing, and the supply - demand is turning to be loose. The short - term price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread for EG9 - 1 at high prices [81]. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand is weak. The absolute price is supported by raw materials, and the processing fee has been repaired to a limited extent. PF should be operated similarly to PTA, and the processing fee can be expanded at a low level [81]. - Bottle - chip: The supply - demand is expected to improve. The processing fee is bottoming out, and the absolute price follows the cost. It is recommended to operate PR similarly to PTA, conduct a positive spread for PR8 - 9 at low prices, and expand the processing fee at the lower limit of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [81]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.4% on July 3 compared to July 2, while the price of East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged. The export profit of PVC increased by 147.2% from June 19 to June 26. The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 2.4% from June 19 to June 26, but the export profit increased by 61.3% [2][3]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.2% from June 20 to June 27, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 0.1%. The profit of externally purchased calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 2.2%, while the northwest integrated profit decreased by 20.5% [4]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the alumina industry increased by 0.5% from June 20 to June 27, while the operating rates of the viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries decreased [5]. The operating rates of PVC downstream products such as pipes and profiles decreased, and the pre - sales volume decreased by 2.9% [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong decreased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.6%, and the total social inventory increased by 1.9% [6]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased on July 3 compared to July 2, with increases of 0.66% and 0.42% respectively. The MA91 spread decreased by 20.00%, and the Taicang basis decreased by 32.79% [10]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased, with increases of 3.14%, 0.47%, and 1.37% respectively [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 3.19%, the downstream external - purchase MTO device operating rate increased by 1.28%, and the formaldehyde operating rate decreased by 1.95% [10]. LLDPE and PP - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601 remained unchanged, L2509 decreased by 0.05%, PP2601 increased by 0.18%, and PP2509 increased by 0.03% on July 3 compared to July 2. The L2509 - 2601 spread decreased by 15.38%, and the PP2509 - 2601 spread decreased by 25.00% [13]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.19%, the social inventory increased by 9.12%, the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.55%, and the PP trader inventory increased by 10.81% [13]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate increased by 3.95%, the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.24%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 0.4%, and the PP powder operating rate decreased by 1.3% [13]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts showed different changes on July 3 compared to July 2. The 01 - 05 contract spread decreased by 16.67%, the 05 - 09 contract spread increased by 17.24%, and the 09 - 01 contract spread decreased by 7.32% [15][16]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 7.06%, and the port inventory increased by 14.70% on a weekly basis [19]. - **Production**: The domestic urea daily production remained unchanged, and the weekly production remained unchanged. The device maintenance loss increased by 12.53% on a weekly basis [19]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On July 4, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.45%, WTI increased by 0.19%, and SC increased by 0.66%. The Brent - WTI spread decreased by 7.22%, and the EFS decreased by 1.46% [77]. - **Product Price and Spread**: The prices of NYM RBOB and ICE Gasoil changed slightly, and the spreads of different contracts also showed different changes [77]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of various refined oils decreased to different degrees on July 4 compared to July 3 [77]. Styrene - **Upstream Price**: On July 3, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.4%, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.9%, and the prices of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR Korea pure benzene increased slightly [71]. - **Spot and Futures Price**: The East China spot price of styrene decreased by 0.1%, EB2508 increased by 0.5%, and EB2509 increased by 0.4%. The basis decreased by 14.4%, and the monthly spread increased by 6.2% [71]. - **Overseas Price and Import Profit**: The CFR China price of styrene increased by 0.7%, and the import profit decreased by 96.3% [72]. - **Operating Rate and Profit**: The domestic pure benzene comprehensive operating rate decreased by 2.9%, the styrene operating rate increased by 1.4%, and the profits of different products showed different changes [73]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene, styrene, PS, EPS, and ABS all increased to different degrees [73]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: On July 3, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.4%, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.9%, and the prices of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR China PX changed slightly [81]. - **Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of various polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY decreased to different degrees, and the cash flows also changed [81]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products all decreased to different degrees [81]. - **Inventory and Arrival Expectation**: The MEG port inventory decreased by 12.4%, and the arrival expectation increased by 141.9% [81].