证券研究报告 小商品城 (600415 CH) H1 净利同增 17%，创新业务+AI 赋能驱动 华泰研究 中报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 2025 年 8 月 18 日│中国内地 零售 | 目标价(人民币): | 26.64 | | --- | --- | | 樊俊豪 | 研究员 | SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 石狄 研究员 shidi@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 杨耀* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070059 yangyao@htsc.com 基本数据 | 目标价 (人民币) | 26.64 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 8 月 15 日) | 19.07 | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 104,573 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 1,024 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 7.77-22.02 | | BVPS (人民币) | 3.72 | 股价走势图 (6) 47 100 153 206 Aug-24 Dec-24 Apr-25 Aug-25 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is focused on enhancing its position as a leading global trade service provider, aiming for sustainable growth and maximizing shareholder value through strategic talent acquisition and operational improvements [3][4][7]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Talent Acquisition - The company has successfully onboarded high-end talent from international banks and leading institutions to support its strategic goals, particularly in the overseas and payment sectors [2]. - A talent cultivation strategy is in place, involving internal development, external recruitment, and partnerships with educational institutions to ensure a robust talent pipeline for future growth [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 3.161 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 803 million, up 12.66% [7]. - The company aims to enhance its return on equity (ROE) and shareholder returns through a "Quality Improvement and Efficiency Enhancement" action plan, focusing on operational excellence and market competitiveness [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Expansion Plans - The export data from Yiwu for the first half of the year indicates strong growth, reflecting the resilience of the supply chain and the demand for essential goods [4]. - The company is planning to open the first three floors of its global digital trade center in October, indicating a proactive approach to market expansion [6]. - The establishment of a research and development center in Hangzhou is underway, aimed at supporting payment services and enhancing operational capabilities [7]. Group 4: Institutional Ratings and Predictions - Over the past 90 days, 12 institutions have rated the stock, with 10 recommending a buy and 2 suggesting an increase, indicating positive market sentiment [8]. - The average target price set by institutions is 22.81, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current status and potential of stablecoin usage in Yiwu, China, highlighting the gap between market expectations and actual merchant adoption [1][9]. Group 1: Stablecoin Usage in Yiwu - Yiwu has become a focal point for stablecoin applications in cross-border payments, with estimates suggesting over $10 billion in stablecoin transactions in 2023 [1][9]. - Despite claims of over 3,000 merchants using stablecoins like USDT, many merchants are unaware of stablecoins and express concerns about compliance and costs [1][2][8]. - A small number of merchants show interest in stablecoins, but most still rely on traditional payment methods [7][9]. Group 2: Yiwu International Trade City - Yiwu International Trade City is the largest small commodity distribution center globally, with over 6.4 million square meters of operating space and 75,000 business units [3]. - The city attracts over 560,000 foreign buyers annually, with products exported to 233 countries and regions [3]. Group 3: Advantages and Challenges of Stablecoins - Stablecoins offer advantages such as reduced transaction times (from days to minutes) and lower costs compared to traditional cross-border payment methods [12]. - However, the widespread adoption of stablecoins faces challenges, including the potential loss of export tax rebates and the need for traditional banking data for loans [13][14]. - Merchants are also concerned about the risks associated with stablecoin transactions, such as money laundering and account freezes [14]. Group 4: Regulatory Considerations - Yiwu Small Commodity City is monitoring the regulatory framework for stablecoins in Hong Kong and may apply for a stablecoin license through its cross-border payment platform, Yiwu Pay [16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has a strong foundation in the Yiwu market, evolving from a street market to the largest global small commodity distribution center, with significant growth in revenue and profit margins [6][9]. - The company benefits from policy advantages and a robust supply chain, particularly through the "1039 model" which simplifies trade for small and micro enterprises [6][30]. - The company is entering a performance acceleration phase, with import business expected to become a new growth driver [6][36]. - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow significantly over the next few years, with a forecast of CNY 197 billion in revenue and CNY 40.31 billion in net profit by 2025 [6][83]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1982, the company has undergone multiple transformations, now operating a market with over 75,000 shops and serving over 1.15 million market entities globally [6][9]. - The company is primarily state-owned, with significant shares held by the Yiwu State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Office [12]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of 28% from 2018 to 2024, and a significant recovery in 2023 after a challenging period due to real estate and pandemic impacts [15]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected at CNY 15.737 billion, with a net profit of CNY 3.074 billion, reflecting a strong recovery trajectory [7]. Business Model and Operations - The company operates multiple business segments, with market operations contributing the majority of revenue, and a notable increase in online business through platforms like Chinagoods [19][56]. - The "1039 model" allows for tax exemptions and simplified customs procedures, enhancing the competitiveness of Yiwu's market [30]. Growth Drivers - The upcoming Global Digital Trade Center is expected to significantly boost the company's market operations, with a planned opening in October 2025 [6][51]. - The company is also enhancing its digital capabilities through AI and the YiwuPay platform, which supports cross-border trade [60][66]. Market Position - Yiwu's export trade has been robust, with a significant portion of exports facilitated through the market procurement trade model, which accounted for 80.1% of total exports in 2024 [32]. - The company is positioned to leverage its strengths in both import and export markets, aiming to achieve a comprehensive trade ecosystem [36][80].

Core Viewpoint - The company expresses its intention to apply for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong, highlighting the potential of innovative payment tools to provide efficient and low-cost cross-border payment solutions for global customers, especially small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The company operates the world's largest small commodity trading market, which naturally possesses a vast and high-frequency cross-border trade settlement scenario [1] - The company's cross-border payment platform, "Yiwu Pay," will continue to monitor the regulatory progress related to stablecoins [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The company welcomes and supports the positive developments in Hong Kong's stablecoin regulatory framework [1] - The company plans to actively evaluate and submit relevant applications once regulations are clarified and pathways are established [1]