丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 盈利质量交易活跃度有所回暖——W122 市场 观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周市场继续放量，上证指数点位触及 3800，成长板块表现活跃，一级行业中电子拥挤度分位 显著提升，微盘指数拥挤度继续回落；基金重仓 50 领涨机构重仓系列；行业板块内 TMT 强势 反弹，板块内龙头涨势优于红利。风格跟踪，成长风格优势持续，"成长+"均表现不俗。主题 行情中，专精特新精选领涨，央国企高质量发展周度表现亦较佳。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 盈利质量交易活跃度有所回暖 2] ——W122 市场 观察 [Table_Summary2] 度量市场情绪：电子拥挤度分位显著抬升，微盘拥挤度继续回落 机构赚钱效应：基金重仓 50 领涨机构重仓 行业板块：TMT 反弹持续，板块内龙头涨势优于红利 风格跟踪：成长风格优势持续，"成长+"均表现不 ...

Group 1 - The long-term investment returns in the stock market are influenced by three factors: corporate earnings, valuation changes, and dividend yields [4][6][10] - Corporate earnings growth and the digestion of early high valuations are crucial for the long-term investment returns of the A-share market, closely linked to the economic development stage [4][10][14] - The A-share market is expected to see systematic increases in long-term investment returns due to improving company quality, increasing dividends and buybacks, and the inflow of patient capital [4][16][22] Group 2 - The annualized total return performance of major global indices from 2011 to 2024 shows that the S&P 500, Nikkei 225, and NIFTY 50 indices have outperformed others, with annualized returns of 13.8%, 12.4%, and 11.5% respectively [5][7] - The A-share market, represented by the CSI 300 index, has a relatively low annualized return of 3.9%, indicating a need for improvement in corporate earnings growth [5][7][14] - The contribution of corporate earnings growth to total returns in major capital markets is significant, with the S&P 500's earnings growth contributing 7.6% to its total return [7][8][14] Group 3 - Valuation changes have had a negative impact on the returns of several capital markets, including the CSI 300, which has seen a valuation change contributing -1.2% to its annualized return [8][15] - Dividend yields have been a consistent source of returns across various markets, with the A-share market's dividend yield at around 2%, which is moderate compared to other major markets [8][18][19] - The increasing focus on dividends and buybacks among A-share companies is expected to enhance investor returns significantly [18][19][20] Group 4 - The relationship between stock market returns and economic development stages shows a "U" shaped trend, where corporate earnings and valuations initially decline before rising again as economies mature [10][11][12] - The ongoing transition of the Chinese economy towards high-quality development is anticipated to improve the overall profitability and valuation of listed companies [14][22] - The growth of patient capital in the Chinese market, including insurance and pension funds, is expected to support the long-term health of the capital market [20][21]