人民财讯12月23日电，在今日由证券时报举办的"攻守之道：新消费'高波动'背后的定价逻辑重构"沙龙 上，长城基金国际业务部副总经理曲少杰表示，Z世代正引领新消费浪潮。当前，我国消费市场正 从"大众消费"向"个性与理性消费"转型，年轻人口基数庞大，叠加国内完整的产业链优势，催生出规模 可观的消费市场，消费分层也呈现出更为多元的特征。其中，新兴消费领域增长动能强劲，宠物经济、 潮玩、现制饮品、健康消费、智能穿戴及智能驾驶汽车六大细分领域表现尤为亮眼。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commercialization process of L4-level autonomous driving is significantly accelerating, driven by policies, technology, and application scenarios, marking the beginning of the "Universal Smart Driving" era by 2025 with an expected vehicle ownership exceeding 100,000 in five cities and a related industry scale surpassing 20 billion yuan [2][3]. Policy Perspective - National-level planning and pilot projects in five cities clarify accident liability, removing institutional barriers [2]. - The release of policy dividends, core technological advancements, and the expansion of application scenarios are collectively fostering the growth of L4 autonomous driving [2]. Technological Development - Continuous reduction in system costs and enhanced vehicle-road-cloud collaboration capabilities are improving reliability in complex environments [2]. - The standardization of "vehicle-cloud" and "vehicle-road-cloud" collaboration is becoming essential, with a rise in patents related to perception, decision-making, and control [3]. Application Scenarios - L4 autonomous driving is currently in the commercial model exploration and full-scale application phase for low-speed semi-open and closed scenarios, while mid-to-high-speed open scenarios are still in early stages [6]. - Various application scenarios include Robotaxi, unmanned delivery, and trunk logistics, transitioning from low-speed closed to mid-speed open environments [2][3]. Business Models - The main business models currently include product sales and operational agency, with product sales being the primary focus [8]. - In industrial parks, L4 autonomous vehicles can save approximately 180,000 yuan annually per intelligent heavy forklift, while smart patrol vehicles in commercial parks can save around 70,000 yuan annually [11]. Cost Savings - In urban sanitation scenarios, L4 autonomous vehicles can save 11% in costs compared to manual cleaning, while electric autonomous sanitation vehicles can save 21% compared to traditional diesel vehicles [15]. - The expected annual cost savings for logistics operations using L4 technology can reach 170,000 yuan compared to traditional vehicles after large-scale operations [29]. Future Trends - L4 autonomous driving is transitioning from the technology validation phase to the commercialization phase, facing challenges such as technical bottlenecks, regulatory gaps, and ethical data issues [45]. - By 2035, the market size for L4 and above autonomous driving in China is projected to exceed 45 trillion yuan, with a penetration rate of over 13% [45].

12月3日，第十届智通财经资本市场年会在深圳南山召开。摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席会议，分享了对 2026- 2027 年全球经济资本市场及中国宏观经济的展望。 他表示，尽管短期宏观挑战仍存，但凭借完整的 AI 产业链优势，中国已成为全球资本多元化配置的必然选择。展望未来两 年，中国将在 "科技为纲、兼顾消费" 的框架下，通过 "按揭贴息" 等政策推动房地产止跌企稳，同步启动税制优化、社保投 入等财税改革，以释放内需、促进消费。 以下为邢自强先生演讲实录： 非常荣幸参加智通财经第十周年年会。今天，我愿简要分享我们新近完成的 2026-2027 年全球经济资本市场及中国宏观经济 展望，抛砖引玉，供各位参考。 Part.01 市场回暖的核心逻辑：三大关键转变 过去一年半，中国资本市场呈现新气象、迈上新台阶。这一变化的核心，源于 2024 年 9 月 24 日以来中国实现的三大转变 —— 政策之变、企业之变与资金之变。 过去五年，中国企业界经历了"严寒大考"：国内房地产调整导致传统需求疲软，海外地缘政治变化与中美关系博弈带来外部 压力。但在这一轮 "严寒大考" 中，多数企业并未停滞退缩，而是厚积薄发、坚韧不 ...

来源：中国新闻网 编辑：张澍楠 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 邢自强说，其一，政策适时调整，让市场信心更足。中国通过扩大财政赤字、加大消费支持力度、发放 补贴等刺激国内需求。 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 其二，中国产业竞争力、科技创新能力上了一个台阶。以DeepSeek(深度求索)为代表的人工智能、正在 崛起的人形机器人、走向全球市场的智能驾驶汽车，以及下一代电池和生物制药等，邢自强说，这些都 是投资者能够在中国找到的投资亮点。 在邢自强看来，投资者对美国的移民政策、关税政策、美联储独立性等因素的担忧加深，这会促使他们 在全球更多元化地配置资产，对中国资产的需求有所提升。摩根士丹利判断，2026年，外资对中国股票 资产会逐渐表现出总体稳健加仓的趋势。(完) 摩根士丹利：外资对中国资产兴趣提升 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新网北京12月3日电 (陶思阅)摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强日前接受中新网采访时表示，中国 经济有两大亮点吸引外资关注。 ...

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's automobile exports increased from less than 2 million to nearly 6 million, achieving a leap in both quantity and quality through collaborative industry chain development [1] - The global smart driving conference highlighted new opportunities and challenges for China's automotive intelligence development, emphasizing the need for a robust export strategy [3] Group 1: Opportunities in Smart Automotive Export - The transition to smart connected vehicles is a global consensus, with significant advancements in China's smart connected vehicle industry, evidenced by a 62.6% penetration rate of L2 passenger cars and a 60.5% 4G/5G installation rate [4] - China's automotive intelligence export is shifting from "single entity export" to a "system export," encompassing smart vehicles, supply chains, and digital services [4][5] - Chinese automotive hardware and software are superior, leading to better user experiences, with L2+ driving assistance penetration reaching 20% [5] Group 2: Challenges in Smart Automotive Export - The export of smart vehicles faces challenges such as complex regulations, consumer awareness of innovative technologies, and limited brand influence [7] - Key deficiencies in China's smart connected vehicle development include unrecognized product safety, suboptimal business models, and a lack of influential enterprises [7][8] - The automotive industry must address localization issues, data security compliance, and cultural adaptation to succeed in international markets [8][9] Group 3: Collaborative Strategies for Export - Industry collaboration is essential for exploring innovative paths for vehicle and supply chain exports, transitioning from competition to cooperation [10] - Establishing a global unified platform for hardware and algorithms, along with enhancing international talent decision-making, is crucial for building a supportive global environment [10] - The launch of the "Smart Connected Vehicle Special Export Action Initiative" aims to create an open and collaborative service ecosystem for high-quality exports [12]

Core Insights - The competition in the intelligent driving market is intensifying, with significant investments and strategic partnerships emerging [1][4][10] - Mercedes-Benz has acquired a stake in Qianli Technology, indicating a strong interest in the Chinese smart driving sector [3][4] - Qianli Technology, formerly known as Lifan Technology, is transitioning towards intelligent driving solutions, but faces challenges in converting this potential into actual profits [2][10] Investment and Strategic Moves - Lifan Holdings plans to transfer 136 million shares of Qianli Technology to Mercedes-Benz Digital Technology at a price of 9.87 yuan per share, totaling approximately 1.342 billion yuan [1][3] - Following this transaction, Mercedes-Benz Digital Technology will become the fifth-largest shareholder of Qianli Technology, holding a 3% stake [3] - Mercedes-Benz has invested over 10.5 billion yuan in R&D in China over the past five years and plans to increase this investment by an additional 14 billion yuan in 2024 [4] Financial Performance - Qianli Technology reported a net profit of -1.35 billion yuan, -0.68 billion yuan, and -1.34 billion yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively, indicating ongoing financial losses [2][12] - The company's revenue from automotive sales was 42.17 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for approximately 59.95% of total revenue [11] - In the first half of 2025, Qianli Technology's automotive sales revenue was 26.73 billion yuan, representing 63.89% of total revenue [11] Market Performance - Qianli Technology's stock price has increased by 71.90% in 2024, reaching 13.15 yuan per share, which has resulted in a paper profit of 446 million yuan for Mercedes-Benz [1][9] - The company's market capitalization is approaching 60 billion yuan, with a significant increase in stock price over the past year [9] Challenges Ahead - Despite the market interest, Qianli Technology's ability to convert its intelligent driving concept into tangible results remains uncertain [10] - The company has been heavily reliant on government subsidies, which accounted for 1.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [13] - Qianli Technology's financial pressure is increasing, with a rising debt ratio and declining liquidity ratios noted in recent financial reports [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment recommendation for companies with full-stack self-research capabilities, such as Li Auto, Xpeng Motors, and Xiaomi Group, as well as those with a combination of self-research and third-party collaboration like BYD, Geely, and Great Wall Motors [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that intelligent driving has evolved from a technical highlight to a critical factor for product differentiation among automakers and a core support for the commercialization of mobility services [1][11]. - The competition in the intelligent driving sector is intensifying, driven by advancements in AI models and the need for enhanced computational power in both vehicle and cloud environments [2][3][57]. - The commercialization process of intelligent driving is accelerating, with increased regional pilot programs and favorable policies driving the adoption of L3 intelligent driving technologies [4][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of intelligent driving technology architecture, focusing on algorithm development trends and the current state of computational power and data layout [11]. 2. AI Model Restructuring Competition - The VLA (Vision-Language-Action) technology is highlighted as a core focus in current intelligent driving solutions, integrating perception, cognition, and action [12]. - The demand for computational power is surging, with the need for real-time decision-making capabilities in dynamic environments [57][58]. - Major automakers are racing to enhance their computational capabilities, with Tesla leading through its integrated technology stack and data feedback loops [3][13]. 3. Core Self-Research Automakers - Tesla's end-to-end architecture and high-efficiency data loops have established its leading position in the intelligent driving industry [3][14]. - Domestic automakers are accelerating their technological advancements but still face generational gaps in data feedback capabilities and algorithm integration [3][14]. 4. Acceleration of Commercialization - The report notes that the "intelligent driving equity" trend is expected to drive the adoption of advanced driving features in lower price segments, enhancing consumer sensitivity to intelligent driving technologies [4][15]. - The Robotaxi market is projected to reach several hundred billion by 2030, with significant potential for growth [4][15]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the establishment of a clear responsibility system under top-level policies will facilitate the maturation of intelligent driving technologies, with L3 standards becoming increasingly reliable [4]. - Companies with differentiated advantages in algorithms, computational power, and data are expected to reshape brand value and gain competitive advantages in the intelligent driving market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The development of intelligent driving technology has become a significant indicator of automotive companies' capabilities, but it has also led to industry chaos and safety incidents, prompting regulatory bodies to enhance safety standards [2][3] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The industry faces three main bottlenecks: technical issues, testing and inspection challenges, and ecosystem deficiencies [3] - Technical challenges include the ongoing debate between vision-based and LiDAR-based solutions, which distracts companies and affects performance in complex scenarios [3] - The lack of clear standards for assisted driving levels leads to marketing exaggerations, causing misuse by consumers [3] - Testing resources are fragmented, with companies duplicating efforts in building testing facilities, leading to inefficiencies [4] - The traditional testing methods are inadequate for the needs of intelligent connected vehicles, necessitating the development of new technologies [4] Group 2: Regional Development and Investment - The East China region, as a major automotive cluster, accounts for over 35% of the national automotive industry, with cities like Shanghai and Suzhou at its core [5] - China Automotive Research Institute (CARI) is investing over 2.3 billion yuan to establish a headquarters in Suzhou, aiming to support the automotive industry's high-end, intelligent, and green upgrades [5][6] - The headquarters will feature over 1,000 advanced R&D and testing facilities, providing comprehensive support across the automotive supply chain [6] Group 3: Collaborative Ecosystem - CARI's headquarters aims to create a collaborative ecosystem involving local governments, testing institutions, and enterprises to enhance the automotive industry's development [7][8] - The establishment of the "Suzhou New Energy Vehicle Public Service Platform" will provide integrated testing and certification services, promoting high-quality development in the intelligent connected vehicle sector [8] - Collaboration with universities and technology companies is emphasized to accelerate research and innovation in key areas such as vehicle-grade chips and intelligent driving systems [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience rapid sales growth driven by its leading AI smart driving capabilities, enhanced marketing systems, and a strong new car cycle, with multiple new models anticipated to launch in 2025 [3][8]. - The company is positioned to benefit from significant earnings elasticity due to scale improvements, cost reductions from platform and technology advancements, and the expansion of software profitability models alongside international growth [3][8]. Summary by Sections Historical Review of New Energy Vehicles and Smart Driving Trends - The transition from policy-driven to consumer-driven demand for new energy vehicles has been marked by significant technological advancements and cost reductions, leading to a rapid increase in market penetration rates [5][16]. - The report outlines three phases of development: policy-driven (pre-2019), product introduction (2020-2021), and hybrid power advancements (post-2022) [16][17]. Smart Driving Advantages and Organizational Reforms - The company is embracing AI smart driving through self-developed Turing chips and a comprehensive software ecosystem, aiming to create a robust competitive moat [6]. - Organizational reforms are being implemented to enhance management efficiency, with a focus on optimizing marketing and supply chain strategies [6]. New Car Cycle and Sales Expectations - The company is entering a new car cycle with a strategic product rollout planned for the next three years, including several key models set to launch in 2024 and 2025 [7][8]. - The anticipated new models are expected to significantly boost sales, leveraging the company's advanced smart driving technology [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts the company's revenue to reach CNY 99.1 billion in 2025, corresponding to a price-to-sales ratio of 1.4x, supported by ongoing advancements in AI smart driving and a strong new car cycle [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [12] Core Views - The company is expected to experience rapid sales growth driven by its leading AI smart driving capabilities, enhanced marketing systems, and a strong new car cycle, with multiple new models anticipated to launch in 2025 [4][10] - The company is positioned to benefit from significant earnings elasticity due to scale improvements, cost reductions from platform and technology, and the expansion of software profitability models alongside continued growth in international markets [4][10] Summary by Sections Historical Review of New Energy Vehicles - The transition from policy-driven to consumer-driven demand for new energy vehicles has been marked by significant technological advancements and cost reductions, leading to a rapid increase in market penetration rates [20][21] - The report identifies three phases in the development of new energy vehicles: policy-driven (before 2019), product introduction (2020-2021), and hybrid power surge (post-2022) [20][21] Technological Advancements and Cost Reduction - The report highlights the continuous improvement in battery costs, which are projected to decrease significantly, enhancing the competitiveness of new energy vehicles [32][33] - The integration of advanced technologies in hybrid vehicles has led to improved fuel efficiency and reduced costs, making them more appealing to consumers [30][36] Smart Driving Capabilities - The company is leveraging its proprietary AI technology and cloud-based model training to enhance its smart driving features, which are expected to see significant advancements in the coming years [8][45] - The report emphasizes the importance of algorithms, computing power, and data in driving the evolution of smart driving technologies, positioning the company as a leader in this space [45][48] New Product Cycle - The company is set to launch a series of new models starting in Q3 2024, including the M03 and P7+, with additional strategic models planned for 2025, which will contribute to sustained sales growth [9][10] - The anticipated new product cycle is expected to significantly expand the company's market presence and sales volume [9][10] Investment Recommendations - The report projects the company's revenue to reach 99.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a price-to-sales ratio of 1.4x, reinforcing the investment thesis based on the company's strong positioning in the AI-driven automotive market [10]