AIDC 自备电源调研 20251211 摘要 美国大缸径柴油发动机产能紧张，主要受限于生产制造能力、测试能力 和关键零部件供应链。博世作为主要燃油系统供应商，因能源转型投资 意愿较弱，加剧了零部件供应瓶颈，且国产替代难度大。 中国数据中心建设增速放缓，受 H20 事件和政策监管影响，2025 年建 设规模或难显著增长。成本敏感性提升，国产替代需求增加，但外资机 组在技术层面仍有优势，需调整商务策略应对。 数据中心备用电源与其功率成线性比例，通常配备 10-40 台柴油发电机， 主力功率段在 1.6-2.4 兆瓦之间。备用电源成本占比约为 25%，成本控 制影响业主对国内外机组的选择。 国产替代面临挑战，高技术含量零部件如博世油泵、电控系统和 ABB 涡 轮增压器难以替代，因技术难度高、缺乏规模效应且投资回报周期长。 基础金属加工件国产化程度较高。 美国数据中心需求旺盛，但本土制造业疲软，次一级零部件难以替换， 康明斯和卡特彼勒扩产意愿不强，通过维持后端需求饥饿状态保持竞争 优势，导致供应链持续紧张。 Q&A 近期美国数据中心业务需求旺盛，导致柴油发动机（柴发）在该领域的出货量 大幅增长。请问目前行业内部的情 ...

Summary of AIDC Diesel Power Generation Industry Update Industry Overview - The global computing power investment is expected to continue growing, with short-term growth around 40%, then tapering to below 20% [1][2] - New computing power is projected to reach 50 billion Flops in 2025 and may reach 100 billion Flops by 2028, driving demand for diesel engines [1][2] Market Size Estimation - The global demand for diesel generator sets is estimated at approximately 15,000 units in 2025, increasing to 27,000-30,000 units by 2028 [1][4] - Research institutions estimate an annual increase of about 38 GW in power, corresponding to approximately 24,400 units, with a market size of around 36.6 billion RMB [1][4] - The long-term market size could reach 50 billion RMB [1][4] Key Players in the Industry - Major global diesel engine manufacturers include Cummins, Caterpillar, MTU, Weichai, Yuchai, and Shanghai Liyuan, which hold significant market shares [1][5] - These companies' capacity expansion rates have not kept pace with the 40% demand growth, leading to ongoing supply-demand tension [1][6][7] Company-Specific Insights Weichai Power - Weichai Power is expected to ship over 1,000 units of AIDC diesel engines in 2025, a significant increase from 380 units in 2024 [1][8] - The company benefits from Baudouin technology and support from PSI, enhancing its performance in the heavy-duty truck sector [1][8] Yuchai International - Yuchai International, in partnership with MTU, has shown strong performance in high-end data center applications and has gained qualifications for AI DC diesel power supply from leading domestic internet companies [1][9] - The company is expected to have a favorable trend in domestic substitution [1][9] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of diesel engines is currently very tight, particularly due to the rapid investment in global data centers [2][10] - The demand for AIDC diesel power generation is expected to grow by about 40% in 2025, but supply growth remains inconsistent, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [10] Financial Performance - Cummins reported a 19% year-over-year revenue growth in its Power Generation segment, with EBITDA as a percentage of revenue rising from 18% to 23.6% [3][11] - This growth is attributed to increased demand for data center power generation, better pricing, and internal operational improvements [11] Domestic Substitution Opportunities - Chinese companies like Weichai Power and Yuchai International have significant potential for domestic substitution, supported by technology and market positioning [1][12] - Weichai Power's capabilities in natural gas engines and Yuchai's strong performance in high-end applications position them well for growth in the global AI DC market [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful IPO of Zhongce Rubber, marking it as the largest IPO in A-shares this year, with a market valuation reaching nearly 500 billion yuan at one point, reflecting the resurgence of manufacturing in Hangzhou [1][11]. Company Overview - Zhongce Rubber, established from the Hangzhou Haichao Rubber Factory founded in 1958, has become a leading tire manufacturer in China, selling 200 million tires annually and generating over 39 billion yuan in sales [1][4]. - The company is known for its well-recognized tire brands such as "Zhaoyang," "Weishi," and "Westlake," with a significant portion of its sales coming from international markets, accounting for approximately 46.91% to 48.32% of total sales from 2022 to 2024 [6][7]. Financial Performance - The projected revenue for Zhongce Rubber from 2022 to 2024 is approximately 31.89 billion yuan, 35.25 billion yuan, and 39.25 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to rise from 1.22 billion yuan to 3.79 billion yuan during the same period [6][7]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach approximately 44.82 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 66.55% [7]. Ownership and Management - The actual controllers of Zhongce Rubber are Qiu Jianping and his daughter, holding a combined 46.95% stake, while state-owned enterprises in Hangzhou hold 25% and 15% stakes [8][10]. - Qiu Jianping, a prominent figure in mergers and acquisitions, has successfully expanded his business portfolio to include four publicly listed companies, with a total market value of around 100 billion yuan [14]. Industry Context - The article emphasizes the broader trend of manufacturing resurgence in Hangzhou, which is diversifying beyond its digital economy roots, with significant investments in new manufacturing sectors [16][17]. - The city has initiated plans to enhance its manufacturing competitiveness by integrating digital technologies and focusing on high-growth industries such as biomedicine, integrated circuits, and new materials [17][18].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Weichai Power Co., Ltd. (维柴) - **Industry**: Diesel engine manufacturing and AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) related sectors Key Points and Arguments 1. **Growth in AIDC and Diesel Engine Business**: Weichai's growth business includes AIDC-related diesel engines and large rigid engines, which are expected to contribute significantly to the company's performance. The profit for Weichai is estimated to reach approximately 13 billion in 2023 and exceed 14 billion in 2024, with a current valuation around 10.5 times earnings, projected to drop below 10 times next year. The company has strong pricing power and cash flow, along with a high dividend yield, leading to continued recommendations for investment in Weichai [1][11] 2. **Recovery in Heavy Truck Industry**: The heavy truck industry is showing signs of recovery, with domestic heavy truck sales around 600,000 units in 2023, slightly down year-on-year. However, there has been a notable increase in retail sales in February, with wholesale figures around 80,000 units and retail between 40,000 to 50,000 units, indicating a positive trend in the market [2][3] 3. **Price Stability and Market Dynamics**: There is a structural price increase in the heavy truck market due to a reduction in discounts and a low willingness to lower prices among manufacturers. This is leading to a volume and price increase in the heavy truck chain, which is expected to benefit the entire industry [3][4] 4. **Replacement Cycle for Heavy Trucks**: The industry is approaching a replacement cycle as older models are nearing their end of life. The transition from older emission standards (e.g., from National V to National VI) is expected to drive sales, particularly as the oldest National V trucks are now around seven years old [5][6] 5. **Natural Gas Heavy Trucks**: The penetration of natural gas heavy trucks is expected to continue to rise, benefiting companies like Weichai that focus on natural gas engine production. The overall heavy truck market is anticipated to recover steadily, with natural gas trucks playing a significant role [6][7] 6. **AIDC Diesel Generator Market Growth**: The AIDC sector is experiencing rapid growth due to the increasing demand for computing power in AI applications. The global market for diesel generators is projected to grow from approximately $6 billion in 2023 to $12 billion by 2030, with Weichai's segment expected to capture a significant share of this growth [7][8] 7. **Barriers to Entry in Engine Manufacturing**: The engine manufacturing industry has high entry barriers, making it difficult for new players to enter. The complexity of the supply chain and the need for extensive collaboration among thousands of components contribute to this challenge [8][9] 8. **Limited Competition from Foreign Firms**: The market for large diesel engines is relatively tight, with limited foreign competition. Major foreign players include Cummins and MTU, but their manufacturing resources in China are minimal, providing a growth opportunity for domestic companies like Weichai [9][10] 9. **Positive Industry Outlook**: The overall industry is expected to maintain a favorable structure, reducing the likelihood of price wars. Weichai, as a leading domestic and global player in diesel engine manufacturing, is well-positioned to leverage advanced technologies and achieve growth in the AI-related market [10][11] Additional Important Insights - **Risks**: Potential risks include economic performance falling short of expectations and significant increases in raw material prices [11]