晨会 证券研究报告 投资要点： | 市场数据 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4,122.68 | -1.43% | 2.47% | | 创业板指 | 3,209.48 | -2.57% | -2.58% | | 沪深 300 | 4,655.90 | -1.54% | -1.31% | | 中证 1000 | 8,142.45 | -3.95% | 5.01% | | 科创 50 | 1,388.41 | -5.21% | -1.07% | | 北证 50 | 1,415.14 | -4.11% | -3.50% | 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年03月03日 华源晨会精粹 20260303 机械/建材建筑 开复工逐步改善，关注资源属性重估的央国企——建筑装饰行业周 报：春季开复工数据同比改善，区域与项目结构分化延续。据百年建筑调研，截至 2 月 25 日（农历正月初九），全国 10692 个工地春季开复工呈现同比改善态势：开复 工率 8.9%、劳务上工率 15.5%、资金到位率 29%，三项指标农历同 ...

证券研究报告 汽车 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 02 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 李泽 SAC：S1350525030001 lize@huayuanstock.com 陈佳敏 SAC：S1350525110001 chenjiamin@huayuanstock.com ——汽车行业周报（20260224-20260301） 证券分析师 投资要点： 投资分析意见：我们认为随着全球 AI 资本开支扩张，柴发环节有望直接受益 AIDC 建设需求提升，国产供应链在柴发供不应求的背景下有望实现量价齐升，建议关注： 1）OEM：潍柴重机、苏美达、科泰电源、泰豪科技等；2）发动机：潍柴动力、玉 柴国际、动力新科等；3）核心零部件：银轮股份、天润工业、长源东谷、中原内配、 威孚高科、渤海汽车、三联锻造、艾可蓝等。 风险提示：1）AI 行业进展低于预期；2）技术迭代风险；3）行业竞争加剧；4）市 场需求测算偏差风险等。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 柴油发电机组是数据中心关键电源之一。数据中心供电系统通常由"电网+UPS+ 柴油发电机组"组成，柴发用作后备电源，一旦市电失电 ...

潍柴动力:主业企稳，AIDC带动新业务快速增长 分析师: 董晓彬 (S0190520080001) 王凯丽 (S0190522070001) 报告日期: 2026年2月26日 投资要点 KEY POINTS 潍柴动力股份有限公司以柴油发动机起家，不断通过收购兼并相关领域的龙头企业拓展自身业务范围， 搭建多元化产业链。2009年以购法国博社安资破高 端技术壁垒，2012 年并购凯傲25%股权与林德液压70%股权切入金球高端液压领域。2018 年投资 Cares Power 布局氢能，2021 年重组雷沃重工进军农机, 2023 年发布全球首款大功率 SOFC 加速氢能商业化，2025 年签署 SOFC 制造许可协议推进规模化生产，逐步成长为覆盖动力系统、新能源等多 元业务的全 球高端装备集团。公司发动机主业包含重卡天然气及柴油发动机、工程机械发动机等产品。新业务方面，伴随AIDC发电需求增长、公司大缸径发动机产品销 量不断提升，贡献边际利润增量。公司现金分红比例长期维持在较高水平，2023年、2024年分别达 50%、55%、高分红格局有望延续， 发动机主业有望企稳，电动重卡边际负面冲击有限。展望2026年、考 ...

福达股份（603166.SH）2月26日在投资者互动平台表示，尊敬的投资者您好！公司曲轴产品为康明斯 和玉柴配套，用于柴油、天然气发动机及柴油发电机组。2025年度，公司（含全资子公司）荣获东风康 明斯发动机有限公司颁发的"最佳质量奖""年度最佳供应商奖""优秀政府采购供应商奖"，以及玉柴股 份、玉柴专卖颁发的"2025年度卓越供应商""2025年度优秀供应商"等多项荣誉。 （记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：您好，请问公司的曲轴有没有配套康明斯和玉柴的柴 油发动机啊？ ...

会议助理: 本会议信息仅供参考，不代表任何投资建议。 王风涤 中泰证券机械分析师: 到 30 年，目前这个需求，会超过 200 GW。其实概括为一句话，就是北美缺电的这么一 个情况。它其实就是 AI 的电力需求突增，对应了以及对应着这个北美本地这个电网基建 老化之间的一种矛盾。这也就导致了为什么这个，目前这个功能技术的路径出现了微调。 什么叫微调？就是阶段内这个燃气轮机仍然是主力，但是基于产能、交期以及区域的工序 不平衡等等因素吧，这个行业它处在一个多技术路线动态微调的阶段这个多技术并行，其 实我个人认为有一点像 20 年前后的光伏的 P 型和 N 型的那个时间点，就是它还没有到抉 择的时刻，因为北美目前的这个缺电缺口，我们刚才介绍过。 它其实是大于目前任何单一技术的产能的。即使从这个发电效率、碳排放、什么成本、度 电成本等等等方面。这个，尤其是重燃，它的这个综合表现是最优的。但是，它这个实际 的装机的交付周期，尤其是这个大型的交付周期。已经从 24 年那一段时间的 2.5 年到 3 年拉长到了现在最长的 7 年。这个也是向大家排期到 2029 年的原因。这个供应链受限， 使得大量的增量需求外溢到了目前的其他 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The global AIDC generator market is experiencing strong demand, particularly in the U.S., with an expected annual growth rate of 30% over the next five years. The Chinese market is projected to grow from 3,000 units in 2024 to 5,000 units in 2025, but at a slower pace than the U.S. [1][2] - Diesel generators are increasingly used as primary power sources due to severe electricity shortages overseas and insufficient gas turbine capacity. The demand for medium-speed gas units is also rising, indicating sustained demand for diesel generators in the next two to three years [3][4] Company Insights Weichai Power - Weichai Power is producing AIDC generators through Weichai Heavy Machinery and has close collaborations with major telecom operators and Huawei. The company plans to launch new 2-3 MW gas valve equipment and is developing medium-speed gas turbines and solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), which have high unit prices and profit margins [1][5][6] - Traditional business segments, including heavy trucks and logistics, are expected to contribute approximately 1 billion RMB in profits, with an overall profit target of 14 billion RMB for 2026 deemed achievable. The growth in the heavy truck sector is primarily driven by overseas markets, and the high growth potential in the power generation business may lead to a revaluation of the company [7] Dongfeng Motor Corporation - Dongfeng is expected to launch a 1.5 MW gas valve product in 2026, with a combined production capacity of 5,000 units from its subsidiaries [8] Wuxi Zhenhua and Weifu High-Tech - Wuxi Zhenhua is involved in producing engine bases for diesel engines, with a low valuation that may lead to a valuation recovery. Weifu High-Tech provides fuel injection systems and turbochargers for AIDC, with an average selling price (ASP) of 80,000 to 100,000 RMB for fuel injection systems and 5,000 RMB for turbochargers [9][10] Zhongyuan Nepe - Zhongyuan Nepe is entering the AI-related power generation equipment supply chain, with significant increases in the value of its cylinder sleeves and pistons. The company anticipates revenues of over 200 million RMB from large-diameter steel sleeves in 2025, with Caterpillar as a major client. Recent acquisitions are expected to enhance profit margins [14][15][16] Silver Wheel Co. - Silver Wheel has secured a key order for gas engine radiators from Caterpillar, with expected annual sales of over 6,000 units due to increased demand from North America. The company is also expanding into data center liquid cooling solutions, which will contribute additional revenue [11][12][13] Market Dynamics - The domestic market share of Chinese companies in the AIDC generator sector is approximately 40%, with significant room for growth. Weichai leads in the North American market, while joint ventures and partnerships with established brands are helping to secure market positions abroad [4][5] Future Outlook - The overall market for AIDC generators is expected to grow significantly, with the U.S. market projected to increase from 3.1 billion USD in 2021 to 12.5 billion USD in 2025, representing a growth of over four times. The global market is anticipated to grow at a rate of 20% to 30% [2][3] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, highlighting the competitive landscape, company strategies, and market trends within the AIDC generator industry.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the North American electricity shortage, driven by the non-linear growth of AI power demand and aging power grid infrastructure [1] - The demand side sees a surge in AIDC projects in the U.S., leading to a significant increase in electricity demand [1] - On the supply side, while total supply is expected to meet short-term demand by 2025, long-term challenges include a decline in stable supply and regional electricity shortages [1] Key Points Supply Challenges - **Decline in Stable Supply**: The aging power grid leads to frequent outages, failing to meet AIDC's requirement for 100% reliable power. The upcoming retirement peak of coal power plants and the instability of wind and solar energy further exacerbate the situation. Only natural gas can currently fill the gap [1][2] - **Regional Electricity Shortages**: By 2024, over 50% of data centers are expected to be located in Texas, California, and Virginia, putting significant pressure on regional power supplies. The fragmented nature of the U.S. power grid and poor interconnections have led to emergency controls due to power imbalances [1] Future Projections - NERC forecasts an average peak gap of over 20 GW in the U.S. from 2027 to 2030, with Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, and California facing significant risks. The DOE predicts an average peak gap of 20-40 GW by 2030 [1] Technology Solutions - **Gas Turbines**: Considered the optimal solution for AIDC self-built power, with efficiency exceeding 60% and the lowest cost per kWh. The global installation of gas turbines is accelerating, with major manufacturers like GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries having orders scheduled until 2029 [2] - **Gas Internal Combustion Engines**: Slightly lower efficiency than gas turbines but offer rapid deployment. Leading company Wärtsilä saw a 111% year-on-year increase in new orders for Q1-Q3 2025, with deliveries extending to 2028 [2] - **Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC)**: High efficiency but currently in early commercialization stages, making it less viable in the short term due to cost and capacity constraints [2] - **Diesel Generators**: Optimal for backup power due to quick start-up capabilities, with Cummins reporting a revenue growth of approximately 20% year-on-year for related products in Q1-Q3 2025 [2] Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are expanding from gas turbines to gas internal combustion engines and SOFCs, as the current electricity shortage in North America exceeds the total production capacity of various technologies [3] - **Gas Turbines**: Recommended companies include Jerry Holdings, Yingliu Co., Dongfang Electric, Linde Co., and Haomai Technology [3] - **Gas Internal Combustion Engines**: Focus on Linde Co., with additional attention to Weichai Power and Eagle Precision [3] - **SOFC**: Suggested to monitor Weichai Power [3] - **Diesel Generators**: Recommended companies include Linde Co., with additional focus on KOTAI Power, Weichai Power, and Eagle Precision [3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include lower-than-expected investment in AI data centers, international trade tensions, and slower-than-anticipated capacity ramp-up [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights significant regional power supply pressures in the U.S. due to the increasing establishment of data centers, particularly in Texas, California, and Virginia, with projections indicating a substantial power gap by 2030 [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Over 50% of data centers are projected to be built in Texas, California, and Virginia by 2024, leading to considerable regional power supply stress [1][2]. - The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) anticipates an average peak power gap of over 20 GW from 2027 to 2030, with Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, and California facing significant risks [1][2]. - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts an average peak power gap of 20-40 GW by 2030 [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Challenges - The U.S. power supply is facing long-term challenges, including a decline in stable supply due to aging infrastructure and frequent outages, which cannot meet the 100% reliability demands of AI data centers [2]. - The upcoming retirement of coal power plants and the instability of wind and solar energy further exacerbate the supply issues, necessitating reliance on natural gas for current gaps [2]. Group 3: Technology Solutions - Gas turbines are identified as the optimal solution for self-built power generation in AIDC, with combined cycle gas turbines achieving over 60% efficiency and the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour [3]. - Gas internal combustion engines, while slightly less efficient, offer rapid deployment capabilities, with a significant increase in orders reported by leading companies [3]. - Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) have high efficiency but are still in early commercialization stages, making them less viable in the short term [3]. - Diesel generators are noted for their quick start-up advantages, serving as optimal backup power solutions [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are shifting from gas turbines to gas internal combustion engines and SOFCs, as the current power deficit in North America exceeds the total production capacity of various technologies [4]. - Recommended companies for gas turbines include Jerry Holdings, Yingliu Co., Dongfang Electric, Linde Co., and Haomai Technology [4]. - For gas internal combustion engines, Linde Co. is recommended, with additional attention to Weichai Power and Weichai Heavy Machinery [4]. - SOFC investments should focus on Weichai Power, while diesel generator investments recommend Linde Co. and other related companies [4].

Core Insights - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights the contradiction between the non-linear growth of AI electricity demand and the aging infrastructure of the power grid in North America [2] Demand Side - The surge in AIDC projects in the U.S. has led to a non-linear increase in electricity demand [2] - By 2025, total supply is expected to meet short-term demand, but long-term projections indicate a decline in stable supply and regional electricity shortages [2] Supply Side - The decline in stable supply is attributed to aging power grids, frequent outages, and the upcoming retirement peak of coal power plants [2] - Renewable energy sources like wind and solar are unstable, while nuclear and geothermal projects have long construction cycles, necessitating reliance on natural gas for current gaps [2] - Regional electricity shortages are exacerbated by over 50% of data centers being built in Texas, California, and Virginia, leading to significant supply pressure in these areas [2] - The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) projects an average peak gap of over 20 GW from 2027 to 2030, with Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, and California facing high risks [2] - The Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts an average peak gap of 20-40 GW by 2030 [2] Investment Opportunities - Considering cost, construction time, and environmental factors, gas turbines are identified as the optimal solution for AIDC self-built power [2] - Gas turbines can achieve over 60% efficiency, with the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour, and are seeing accelerated installation trends [2] - The global new installation scale of gas turbines is expected to approach the previous cycle's peak by 2025, with leading manufacturers like GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries having orders scheduled until 2029 [2] - Gas internal combustion engines, while slightly less efficient, offer rapid delivery and deployment, with Wärtsilä's new equipment orders increasing by 111% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2025 [2] - Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) have high efficiency but are still in early stages of commercialization and cost control, making them less viable in the short term [2] - Diesel generators provide quick start-stop advantages and are optimal for backup power, with Cummins reporting a revenue growth of about 20% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the North American electricity sector, particularly focusing on gas turbines and related technologies due to the ongoing electricity shortage driven by AI data center demands [2][6][30]. Core Insights - The North American electricity shortage is characterized by a contradiction between the non-linear growth of AI electricity demand and the aging infrastructure of the power grid. The demand side sees a surge in AIDC projects, while the supply side faces challenges with declining stable supply and regional electricity shortages [2][6][24]. - The report highlights that gas turbines are currently the optimal solution for AIDC self-built power generation, with gas internal combustion engines, SOFC, and diesel generation serving as effective supplements [2][37]. - The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) predicts an average peak electricity gap of over 20GW from 2027 to 2030, with significant risks in Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, and California [2][32]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Electricity Shortage in North America - The electricity shortage is driven by the non-linear growth of AI demand and the aging power grid infrastructure. The electricity consumption in the U.S. is expected to reach historical highs in 2025-2026, with data centers' planned installed capacity increasing from 5GW in early 2023 to over 245GW by October 2025 [6][19]. - The average lifespan of power infrastructure in the U.S. is around 35-40 years, leading to frequent outages and an inability to meet the reliability demands of AIDC [15][19]. Section 2: Power Source Selection - Gas turbines are identified as the primary power source, with gas internal combustion engines, SOFC, and diesel generation as supplementary options. The report emphasizes the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of gas turbines, which can achieve over 60% efficiency and have the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour [2][37]. - The report also discusses the expected increase in gas turbine installations, with global new installations projected to approach previous cycle peaks by 2025, driven by the surge in AIDC electricity demand [48][52]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on various technologies due to the ongoing electricity shortage, suggesting investments in gas turbines, gas internal combustion engines, SOFC, and diesel generation. Specific companies are highlighted for potential investment opportunities, including Jerry Holdings, Yingliu Co., Dongfang Electric, and others [2][37][39].