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能源政策发不停,储能锂电爆价又爆量,是景气大周期的模样 | 投研报告
Core Viewpoint - The energy sector is experiencing significant policy support, with recent guidelines from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aimed at promoting high-quality development in the renewable energy industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. This is expected to create abundant investment opportunities in clean energy sources and new grid construction over the next 3-5 years, driven by global electricity shortages and carbon reduction demands [2]. Energy Storage - The guidelines emphasize the necessity of a capacity electricity price mechanism. Inner Mongolia has set an independent energy storage discharge compensation standard of 0.28 yuan/kWh for 2026, which is better than expected. Haibo has signed a three-year long-term contract for 200GWh with Ningde, indicating strong demand for energy storage and optimistic expectations for battery supply tightness [2][5]. Lithium Battery - According to Xinluo Lithium Battery, global energy storage battery shipments reached 428GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 90.7%. In November, there is a significant supply shortage of VC, leading to a sharp price increase. Leading electrolyte companies have only 10-15 days of VC inventory, which is far below the safety stock level. The high production enthusiasm and price increase expectations continue to support a positive outlook for the entire lithium battery industry chain [1][2]. Wind Power - Inner Mongolia plans to add 150GW of new energy installations over the next five years and has initiated a competitive bidding process for 15GW of wind power in 2025. There is optimism for sustained high levels of wind power bidding in the short term and strong demand in the medium to long term. The pricing policies for offshore wind in Zhejiang and Jiangsu show clear policy support, suggesting that domestic offshore wind is likely to see significant growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3]. Photovoltaics - Perovskite technology is receiving policy support and industrial progress, with ongoing recommendations to focus on equipment and core materials. CSIQ (the parent company of Aters) has released a strong guidance for 2026 energy storage shipment volumes. There is a continued recommendation for bottom-fishing in the photovoltaic sector, including leaders in energy storage, glass, low-cost silicon materials, high-efficiency batteries/modules, and new technologies like perovskite and tandem cells [3]. Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cells - The national level has continuously issued strategic policy documents to promote the maturity of the green hydrogen and ammonia industry from multiple dimensions, including system positioning and development pathways. The demand for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) is strongly determined, and the industry development trend is clear, showing resilience against short-term fluctuations [3]. Electric Grid - The State Grid has opened bidding for three batches of metering equipment, with new standards leading to price increases of over 30% for A-D grade meters, which is expected to significantly enhance profit margins for leading companies. The sixth round of bidding for transmission and transformation projects by the State Grid in 2025 maintains a high volume [4]. New Energy Vehicles - The automotive market entered a negative growth phase in October due to the continuous decline of local subsidies and high base figures from the same period last year. The penetration rate continues to rise, validating the impact of the reduction in purchase tax exemptions. It is expected that Q4 market sales will remain flat year-on-year, with the penetration rate continuing to break new highs, but closer observation of demand in Q1 2026 is necessary [4]. Important Industry Events - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has included perovskite in the "Frontier Materials Pilot Platform." Inner Mongolia has clarified the independent energy storage compensation standard for 2026 at 0.28 yuan/kWh. The region has also initiated competitive bidding for 15GW of wind power projects in 2025. Longi Green Energy has acquired Suzhou Jingkong Energy to enter the energy storage industry, and Goldwind Technology has opened a solution factory in South Africa. The State Grid has opened bidding for metering equipment and announced the sixth round of bidding for transmission and transformation projects [5].
算力与降碳合力驱动,全球电力源网共振,电新景气开新篇 | 投研报告
Core Viewpoint - The urgent demand for AI computing power, combined with the global push for carbon emission reduction, will drive a major cycle in clean energy and new grid construction over the next 3-5 years [2][3] Energy Storage - The electricity shortage narrative continues in North America, with a resonance between the Chinese and American markets; the white paper on "China's Actions for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" further establishes the critical role of energy storage [2][3] Lithium Battery - The price of lithium iron phosphate continues to rise, with a significant increase in demand for power battery cells; the average price of lithium iron phosphate power batteries rose by 4.19% compared to the previous week [2][3] - Graphitization of negative electrodes is under pressure from demand growth and cost, leading to a strong desire for price increases among graphitization companies [2] Wind Power - Wind turbine prices and quantities continue to exceed expectations, with a positive outlook on the extent and duration of profit recovery; Jiangsu's plan for 35.8GW of wind power, with over 90% from offshore wind, is expected to boost the offshore wind sector [2][3] Photovoltaics - As the year-end approaches, the production schedule in the photovoltaic industry is seasonally weakening, but the decline in production is less than previously predicted; a total of 51GW of modules are expected to be produced, with a 4% decrease [3] - The ongoing electricity shortage and strengthened domestic carbon reduction goals may gradually trigger a recovery in market expectations for photovoltaic demand [3] Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cells - The demand for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) is exceeding expectations, with new supply chain opportunities emerging; the position of hydrogen energy as a new growth pole in the "14th Five-Year Plan" is established [3][6] Industry Events - The State Council's white paper on carbon peak and carbon neutrality was released, and the National Energy Administration issued guidelines for the integration of coal and new energy [6] - The approval of the Panshi ultra-high voltage AC project, with a total investment of 23.2 billion, is expected to start construction in the first half of 2026 [6]
【报名进行中】 2025势银氢燃年会(1月6-8日,宁波)
势银能链· 2025-09-25 03:56
Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Trend Bank Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry Annual Conference will be held from January 6-8, 2026, in Ningbo, focusing on insights into new policies and strategies to overcome industry challenges, aiming to build a new future for the hydrogen energy industry [3]. Group 1: Conference Details - The conference will feature multiple special sessions and unique segments, including discussions on key industry topics and the "Trend Bank Future Award" ceremony [3]. - Registration for the event requires the use of a personal mobile number for successful check-in, which will allow access to the agenda, public presentations, and post-event reports [5]. - The event will include sponsorship from various companies, with SANY Hydrogen Energy as the main sponsor and several supporting sponsors [5]. Group 2: Conference Agenda - The agenda includes discussions on hydrogen vehicle policy, new pilot policies from the National Energy Administration, annual industry summaries, and the release of the Trend Bank Annual Blue Book [6]. - Specialized forums will cover topics such as fuel cell supply chains, hydrogen storage and transportation, and the latest research reports from Trend Bank [6]. - Unique segments will include an innovation square, investment consulting areas, government investment promotion, and strategic dialogues among industry leaders [6]. Group 3: Awards and Rankings - The conference will announce the "Top 20 Hydrogen Energy City Competitiveness Rankings" and the "Top 10 Hydrogen Financial Institutions Rankings," along with the Trend Bank Future Award [6]. - The Future Award will recognize achievements in the hydrogen industry across various categories, including market strength, product strength, and technological strength [6][7].
22万公里衰减率仅3.8%!云韬氢能以耐久性破局,登顶燃电配套第一
势银能链· 2025-09-24 03:31
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise of Guangdong Yuntao Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (Yuntao Hydrogen) as a leader in the hydrogen fuel cell market, achieving the highest fuel cell system matching volume in China from January to August 2025, with a remarkable durability record of only 3.8% degradation after 220,000 kilometers of operation [2][4][11]. Group 1: Technological Breakthroughs - Yuntao Hydrogen has achieved a breakthrough in fuel cell durability, addressing a critical challenge in the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles, particularly for heavy-duty trucks [4][6]. - The company focuses on three key areas to enhance durability: quality management, development of highly durable materials, and innovative control and management technologies [6][7]. - The fuel cell system demonstrates significant advantages over traditional diesel systems, including zero carbon emissions, lower operational noise, and reduced lifecycle costs, with hydrogen consumption averaging 8 kg per 100 km, leading to a 5-10% cost reduction compared to diesel vehicles [7][8]. Group 2: Market Validation and Customer Feedback - Customer feedback indicates that Yuntao Hydrogen's systems have alleviated concerns regarding the lifespan of hydrogen vehicles, with high operational efficiency and low energy consumption [10][11]. - The company has successfully delivered 476 fuel cell vehicles in the first eight months of 2025, outperforming traditional competitors and establishing itself as a market leader [11]. - Yuntao Hydrogen's strategic infrastructure investments, including the establishment of multiple hydrogen refueling stations, support its competitive edge and operational capabilities [11][12]. Group 3: Economic Advantages and Future Prospects - The company has built a robust hydrogen supply chain, ensuring high-quality hydrogen production and cost savings for customers, potentially saving hundreds of thousands of yuan annually in fuel costs [14]. - Yuntao Hydrogen's comprehensive approach, from hydrogen sourcing to vehicle operation, establishes a solid foundation for market competitiveness and positions it as a benchmark in the high-tech manufacturing sector [14][15].
8月氢车上牌数据:广东城市群持续发力,云韬氢能配套占比高达64%位列第一
势银能链· 2025-09-23 03:12
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the fuel cell vehicle (FCEV) market in 2025, highlighting significant declines in both vehicle registrations and installed capacity compared to the previous year [3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January to August 2025, a total of 2,531 FCEVs were registered, representing a year-on-year decrease of 45% [3]. - The cumulative installed capacity for fuel cells during the same period was 323.69 MW, down 38.4% year-on-year [3]. - In August 2025, the installed capacity of fuel cells was 24.78 MW, which is a dramatic decrease of 81.4% year-on-year and a 40.3% decline compared to the previous month [6]. Group 2: Company Contributions - In August 2025, 213 FCEVs were registered, marking an 82.7% decrease year-on-year and a 39.3% decline month-on-month [6]. - Among the companies contributing to the FCEV registrations, YunTao Hydrogen Energy led with 137 vehicles, accounting for 64% of the total [7]. - From January to August 2025, YunTao Hydrogen Energy supplied a total of 476 vehicles, emerging as the top player in the industry and achieving a remarkable "two consecutive months" of leading supply [7].
势银研究 | 孝义氢车破局方案:唯一一个购置+运营双赢场景
势银能链· 2025-09-22 06:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the promotion and implementation of fuel cell vehicles in Xiaoyi City, highlighting key signals and developments in the hydrogen energy sector, particularly focusing on the economic viability and environmental benefits of hydrogen fuel cell trucks. Group 1: Policy and Implementation - The demonstration period for fuel cell vehicles has been extended to mid-2026, allowing for continued subsidy reviews and support for the promotion of hydrogen vehicles in Xiaoyi City [3]. - The city plans to add 1,000 hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks within the year, with significant allocations across various industries, totaling over 1 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Economic Viability - Subsidies for fuel cell trucks can reach up to 756,000 yuan, making the purchase cost lower than that of diesel trucks, with the effective cost for a 31-ton heavy truck dropping to 250,000-350,000 yuan after subsidies [5]. - The total cost of ownership (TCO) for hydrogen fuel cell trucks is projected to be 196.6 million yuan, which is 64.8% of the TCO for diesel trucks, indicating a significant cost advantage when subsidies are applied [9]. Group 3: Environmental Impact - The use of gray hydrogen as fuel can theoretically reduce carbon emissions by 21% compared to diesel trucks, with a single truck potentially reducing emissions by 518.4 tons annually [11]. - The projected annual carbon reduction from the deployment of hydrogen trucks in Xiaoyi could reach 69,900 tons, equivalent to the carbon absorption of approximately 3.882 million trees [11]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Support - Local hydrogen production capacity exceeds 400,000 tons, with production costs for high-purity hydrogen ranging from 8 to 10 yuan per kilogram, ensuring profitability for hydrogen refueling stations [10]. - The exemption of highway tolls for hydrogen fuel cell trucks can significantly offset operational costs, enhancing the economic attractiveness of these vehicles [7].
政策与订单催化全球氢能板块共振,同时继续推荐风电&固态 | 投研报告
风光储:荷兰、德国海风招标相关政策积极转向;隆基与晶科就专利纠纷达成和解;新 版多晶硅能耗标准征求意见。 AIDC:Boyd宣布已向超大规模企业交付500万套冷板;台媒报英伟达要求供应商开发微 通道水冷板技术;华为全联接大会分享昇腾芯片后续规划;英伟达与英特尔宣布建立合作关 系;微软宣布再投资超70亿美元数据中心。 锂电:固态电池产业化持续推进。松下能源宣布将致力于生产全固态电池,将在截至 2027年3月的财年内推出其首批新型固态电池样品,旨在开拓机器人及其他设备领域的下一 代电池市场;蜂巢能源开发360Wh/kg半固态电池,搭载低空飞行器,自研工艺突破半固态 量产瓶颈,蜂巢能源成本最优兼容现产线;SK On于近日宣布,已成功建成全固态电池试点 工厂,此举旨在攻克下一代电池核心关键技术,力争在2029年实现商用。我们看好全固态电 池产业化前景,建议关注产业链投资机会。 电网:1)首条多端柔直特高压藏东南-粤港澳开工,总投资532亿元,重申看好Q4特高 压招标提速;2)国网输变电设备四批招标141亿元,同比+16%,前四批累计招标682亿元, 同比+23%,主网建设稳步推进;3)国网计量设备2批招标47亿元,上 ...
国证国际港股晨报-20250919
Guosen International· 2025-09-19 07:54
Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a collective decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.35%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 1.46%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 0.99% [2] - The report highlights a significant interest in the collaboration between Nvidia and Intel, which is expected to impact the semiconductor sector positively [6] Company Overview - Chery Automobile is a leading passenger car manufacturer in China, established in 1997, with five major brands catering to diverse customer needs [8] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 926.2 billion, 1,632.1 billion, and 2,699.0 billion CNY from 2022 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70.7% [8] Industry Status and Outlook - The global passenger car industry is entering a mature phase, with total sales expected to reach 74.3 million units in 2024 and a CAGR of 3.5% from 2025 to 2030 [9] - The Chinese passenger car market is robust, with sales projected to reach 22.7 million units in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 1.9% from 2019 to 2024 [9] Advantages and Opportunities - Chery Automobile boasts a diverse brand matrix and strong R&D capabilities, positioning it well for future technological advancements [10] - The company is recognized as a leading Chinese passenger car enterprise with significant global expansion potential [10] Investment Recommendations - The IPO of Chery Automobile is supported by a strong lineup of cornerstone investors, with the offering price set between 27.75 and 30.75 HKD, leading to a post-IPO market capitalization of approximately 160.04 to 177.34 billion HKD [12] - The report suggests that Chery is comparable to other leading domestic brands like Great Wall Motors and Geely, with a lower valuation relative to Geely [12]
【报名进行中】 2025势银氢燃年会(1月6-8日,宁波)
势银能链· 2025-09-19 03:32
Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Trend Bank Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry Annual Conference will be held from January 6-8, 2026, in Ningbo, focusing on insights into new policies and strategies to overcome industry challenges, aiming to build a new future for the hydrogen energy industry [3]. Group 1: Conference Details - The conference will feature multiple specialized sessions and unique segments, including discussions on key industry topics and the "Trend Bank Future Award" ceremony [3]. - Registration for the event requires the use of a personal mobile number for successful check-in, which will allow access to the agenda, public presentations, and post-event reports [5]. - The conference will include various sponsorships, with notable sponsors such as Tianrong Technology and Zhongji Hydrogen Energy [5]. Group 2: Conference Agenda - The agenda includes discussions on hydrogen vehicle policy, new pilot policies from the National Energy Administration, and an annual industry summary [6]. - Specialized forums will cover topics such as fuel cell supply chains, hydrogen storage and transportation, and the latest research reports from Trend Bank [6]. - Unique segments will include an innovation square, investment consulting areas, and strategic dialogues on key issues in hydrogen energy development [6]. Group 3: Awards and Rankings - The conference will announce the "Top 20 Hydrogen Energy City Competitiveness Rankings" and the "Top 10 Hydrogen Energy Financial Institutions Rankings" [6]. - The Trend Bank Future Award will recognize achievements in the hydrogen industry, including categories for market strength, product strength, and technological strength [6][7].
【报名进行中】 2025势银氢燃年会(1月6-8日,宁波)
势银能链· 2025-09-12 03:06
Core Insights - The 2025 Trend Bank Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry Annual Conference is scheduled for January 6-8, 2026, in Ningbo, focusing on the theme "Insight into New Policies, Breaking the Industry Winter - Building a New Future for the Hydrogen Industry" [2] - The conference will feature various special sessions and unique activities, including the "Trend Bank Future Award Ceremony" and the "First Hydrogen Circle Friendship Game" [2] Group 1: Conference Details - The conference is organized by Ningbo Membrane Intelligence Information Technology Co., Ltd., which serves as the sole registered entity and payment account for Trend Bank [1] - Registration for the event requires the use of a personal mobile number to ensure successful check-in and access to agenda, public presentations, and post-event reports [5] - Sponsorship is supported by several companies, including Jichong Hydrogen Energy, Kunhua Technology, and others [5] Group 2: Awards and Rankings - The conference will announce the "Top 20 Hydrogen Energy City Competitiveness Rankings" and the "Top 10 Hydrogen Financial Institutions Rankings" [8] - The Trend Bank Future Award will include categories such as Annual Market Power Award, Annual Product Power Award, Annual Technology Power Award, and Industry Achievement Award [8]