各位老铁，我是20年财经老司机帮主郑重。今天这市场可真是"屋漏偏逢连夜雨"——以色列和伊朗周末互炸不停，直接把布伦特原油轰到75美元/桶，黄 金也跟着窜到3444美元/盎司，这架势简直像在看《速度与激情》的原油版！作为中长线玩家，咱们得把显微镜和望远镜都用上，既要盯紧当下的避险机 会，又得看清长期的战略布局。 不过咱们也别光顾着避险，政策面的暖风还在吹。央行上周又撒了5000亿逆回购，市场流动性像"活水"一样。科技自主这条主线可不能丢，工信部的《算 力互联互通计划》正在推进，光模块龙头中际旭创、服务器巨头浪潮信息，短期被错杀反而是捡便宜的机会。消费板块也有惊喜，618大促数据超预期， 美妆龙头珀莱雅、家电巨头美的集团，业绩确定性比黄金还稳。 技术面上，原油下方72美元是强支撑，这是OPEC+减产协议的成本线，跌破的概率不大。黄金3400美元是关键心理关口，只要站稳，下一个目标就是 3750美元的历史新高。操作上别太激进，5-6成仓位拿着，30%能源军工，30%科技成长，20%消费，剩下20%现金机动。早盘要是量能破了3000亿，该加 仓就加仓；要是跌破原油72美元或者黄金3400美元，就切换到高股息模式，银行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a range-bound fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing signs of a potential rebound after a recent pullback, supported by upcoming significant events and financial policies [1][2][3]. Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index has been in a rebound cycle for 46 trading days since hitting a low on April 7, indicating a potential for further upward movement [2][5]. - Historical patterns suggest that the index may follow a "pullback before breakthrough" strategy, as seen in previous instances [2][4]. Upcoming Events - The Lujiazui Forum on June 18-19 is expected to be a key event where central financial authorities will announce several financial policies, potentially providing upward momentum for the market [2][3]. - A global central bank week from June 17-19 will see major banks, including the Federal Reserve, announce interest rate decisions, which could impact market sentiment [4]. Sector Focus - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, is anticipated to create short-term investment opportunities in sectors such as oil and gas equipment, transportation, and precious metals [6][8]. - Historical context from the Russia-Ukraine conflict suggests that supply chain concerns may arise, particularly in key industrial products, leading to potential price increases in related sectors [6][7]. Market Sentiment - Despite a recent cooling in market sentiment, the overall rebound cycle for the market remains intact, with a focus on sector-specific opportunities rather than broad index movements [8].

长期以来，国内油气领域主要由"三桶油"通过上中下游一体化经营形成垄断格局。2017年5月，国家 油气体制改革方案提出中游干线管网独立，同时开放上下游的改革目标。2019年12月，国家管网正 式挂牌成立，接管了"三桶油"等公司的干线天然气管网资产，标志着中游管网独立，形成油气市场体 系从"3+X"向"X+1+X"的变革，其目的是实现油气运输向第三方公平开放，最终降低国内整体用能成 本。 2025.05. 20 本文字数：1254，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 郭霁莹 "参加本次展会，最希望向行业展示成立这五年来我们在理念上给社会带来的变化，让更多客户信 任、使用国家管网，撬动更多能源进入中国，让全社会享受到更清洁、低成本的能源。" 在5月19日至23日举办的第29届世界燃气大会（WGC2025）上，国家石油天然气管网集团有限公司 （简称"国家管网"）市场部副总经理杨安接受第一财经采访时表示，在天然气"全国一张网"推进方 面，国内10万多公里天然气管线，国家管网运营约59%，集团通过省网融入、新建管道、合资合作 等方式丰富全国一张网，同时通过交易平台让更多用户使用集团的管输服务。 第一财经记者注意到，在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the National Oil and Gas Pipeline Group aims to achieve fair and open oil and gas transportation for third parties, ultimately reducing the overall energy costs in China [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - The National Oil and Gas Pipeline Group operates approximately 59% of the 100,000 kilometers of natural gas pipelines in China, promoting a "national unified network" through various methods such as provincial network integration and new pipeline construction [1][4]. - The company has developed a trading platform that allows for efficient resource allocation by enabling a "demand release - path intelligent matching" process, significantly improving the efficiency of resource distribution [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - The trading platform simplifies the logistics process for customers, allowing them to transport gas from regions like Xinjiang to Shanghai with a single ticket, thereby reducing energy usage costs [4]. - The company has saved approximately 12 billion yuan annually in energy costs by optimizing transportation paths and reducing pipeline transportation fees [5]. Group 3: Industry Context - The oil and gas sector in China has historically been dominated by the "three major oil companies," leading to a monopolistic structure. The establishment of the National Pipeline Group marks a shift towards a more competitive market by separating midstream pipeline operations from upstream and downstream activities [4][5]. - The company has facilitated the direct procurement of international resources for domestic small and medium enterprises by opening up eight LNG receiving stations, enhancing competition and resource availability [5]. Group 4: Future Prospects - By the end of 2024, the company is expected to have received over 70 million tons of LNG from more than 50 shippers across 30 countries, representing a 30% increase in LNG receiving capacity compared to 2020 [5]. - The East Route of the China-Russia pipeline is projected to become the largest single pipeline in the world by delivery capacity, with an expected gas delivery volume of 38 billion cubic meters by the end of 2024 [5].