今日早参 2026 年 3 月 03 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：开年出行活跃、地产成交环比改善 春节假期居民消费、出行需求旺盛，个性化、体验性需求快速释放；节后复 工复产情况好于去年同期，上海发布楼市新政"沪七条"、率先拉开节后地 产政策调整序幕，地产成交（尤其是二手房）初现边际企稳迹象；外需方 面，1-2 月港口高频指标显示出口同比或较 12 月继续上行。出行及消费方 面，春运前 27 天（2 月 2-28 日）全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长 5.9%， 其中铁路/公路/水路/民航发送人员同比增长 7.4%/5.7%/19.7%/6.3%；春节 假期国内居民旅游人次/收入同比增长 19%/18.7%，商务部数据显示智能眼 镜、具身智能机器人销售额同比分别增长 47.3%、32.7%，入境游产品订单 同比增长 18.4%。出口方面，高频指标显示偏高基数下 1-2 月出口同比增速 或较 12 月回升至 12%。节后复工复产进度好于同期：农历春节对齐后，百 年建筑网全国工地复工率/劳务上工率分别高于去 ...

Group 1: Petrochemical Industry - The PTA industry in China is showing signs of a turning point as the expansion cycle ends, with production capacity increasing by 80% since 2020 and maintaining a healthy operating rate due to growing demand in textiles and consumer goods [2] - The industry has faced low profitability for 13 years, primarily due to the promotion of new technologies leading to increased competition since 2018 [2] - By 2025, the CR5 of the PTA industry in China is expected to reach 70%, with leading companies having a high proportion of new technology capacity, and no new capacity expected to be added in 2026-2027, indicating potential for industry optimization [2] Group 2: Nonferrous Metals - The Grasberg copper mine, the second largest globally, has ceased operations due to an accident, which is projected to reduce copper output by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 270,000 tons in 2026 [3] - Additionally, the Kamoa-Kakula mine's shutdown may also impact copper production in 2026, leading to a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance for copper in Q4 2025 and 2026 [3] - As a result, copper prices are expected to strengthen [3] Group 3: Construction Materials - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China has issued a plan for stable growth in the construction materials industry for 2025-2026, emphasizing the resolution of structural contradictions rather than specific growth targets [3] - The plan includes detailed measures for capacity regulation and management across different sub-industries, with increasing demands for digitalization and greening in the industry [3] - The report remains optimistic about breakthroughs in the cement industry and recommends companies such as Huaxin Cement A, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement A [3] Group 4: Key Companies - Micron Technology reported FY25Q4 revenue of $11.3 billion, a 46% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations, with adjusted net profit of $3.47 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.03 [4] - The company anticipates FY26Q1 revenue between $12.2 billion and $12.8 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 50.5%-52.5% [4] - Despite the positive earnings report, concerns about increased competition in HBM technology may pressure Micron's market position [4] Group 5: Other Companies - Nine Dragons Paper achieved FY2025 revenue of 63.24 billion yuan, a 6.3% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 1.77 billion yuan, reflecting a 135.4% increase due to its integrated pulp and paper layout [5] - The company is expected to continue solidifying its cost advantages as it advances its integrated pulp and paper strategy [5] - Wanhua Chemical anticipates a net profit of 340-420 million yuan for the first three quarters, representing a 70%-110% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for PVA optical films and automotive-grade PVB films [5]