今日早参 2026 年 3 月 03 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：开年出行活跃、地产成交环比改善 春节假期居民消费、出行需求旺盛，个性化、体验性需求快速释放；节后复 工复产情况好于去年同期，上海发布楼市新政"沪七条"、率先拉开节后地 产政策调整序幕，地产成交（尤其是二手房）初现边际企稳迹象；外需方 面，1-2 月港口高频指标显示出口同比或较 12 月继续上行。出行及消费方 面，春运前 27 天（2 月 2-28 日）全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长 5.9%， 其中铁路/公路/水路/民航发送人员同比增长 7.4%/5.7%/19.7%/6.3%；春节 假期国内居民旅游人次/收入同比增长 19%/18.7%，商务部数据显示智能眼 镜、具身智能机器人销售额同比分别增长 47.3%、32.7%，入境游产品订单 同比增长 18.4%。出口方面，高频指标显示偏高基数下 1-2 月出口同比增速 或较 12 月回升至 12%。节后复工复产进度好于同期：农历春节对齐后，百 年建筑网全国工地复工率/劳务上工率分别高于去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights significant stock movements and financial forecasts for several companies, indicating both strong performance in some cases and anticipated losses in others. Group 1: Stock Performance and Announcements - Zhite New Materials announced that its stock will resume trading on January 16 after a suspension for verification, stating that its business does not involve AI applications or related fields, and it has not generated related revenue. The stock has seen a cumulative increase of 198.6% this year, with all six trading days resulting in 20% daily limits [1][6]. - *ST Chengchang reported that its stock experienced severe trading fluctuations, with a closing price of 122.84 yuan per share and a rolling P/E ratio of 278.93, significantly higher than the industry average of 54.31 [2][7]. - Liou Co., a company in the AIGC sector, announced a stock suspension due to a 96.77% price deviation over ten trading days, with minimal impact from its AI-related business on overall performance [3][8]. Group 2: Earnings Forecasts and Losses - Multiple companies, including Kunlun Wanwei, Shanghai Hanxun, Kosen Technology, Aerospace Information, and Hainan Development, have projected losses for 2025 [4][9]. - Kunlun Wanwei and Shanghai Hanxun both expect negative net profits for 2025, indicating a downturn in their financial performance [10]. - Kosen Technology anticipates a net loss of 245 million to 330 million yuan for 2025, attributing this to market demand fluctuations and strategic adjustments [10]. - Aerospace Information forecasts a net loss of 700 million to 980 million yuan for 2025, citing intensified competition and declining business scale [10]. - Hainan Development expects a net loss of 440 million to 565 million yuan for 2025, with significant impacts from its subsidiary's financial difficulties and a planned bankruptcy [11].

Economic Growth - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and regulate "involution" competition among enterprises[3] - President Xi Jinping highlighted the importance of guiding enterprises to improve product quality and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity[3] - The State Council issued a notice to enhance employment support policies, including expanding special loans and increasing unemployment insurance return ratios[3] Infrastructure and Industry Policies - The China Cement Association released guidelines to promote "anti-involution" and "stable growth" in the cement industry, with many industries issuing production reduction notices[4] - A collective production cut of 30% was announced by leading photovoltaic glass companies to alleviate "involution" competition[4] - Some steel mills have received notices for production reduction and emission limits[4] Consumer Policies - Shanghai optimized the environment for outbound tax refunds, and Taobao launched a 50 billion RMB subsidy for consumer vouchers to stimulate consumption[4][16] - The initiative by Taobao is expected to benefit more small and medium-sized businesses and stimulate greater consumption[16] Financial Regulation - Recent financial regulatory policies focus on optimizing capital market mechanisms and exploring the development of RMB stablecoins in Shanghai and Hong Kong[19] - The government aims to guide insurance companies towards long-term stable investments[19] Trade Policies - The U.S. has lifted certain trade restrictions on China, including the requirement for government licenses for major chip design software suppliers[5][22] - The U.S. plans to implement new tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% on countries without trade agreements starting August 1[6][25] Overseas Macro Policies - The U.S. Federal Reserve members largely expect another interest rate cut later this year, with the "Big Beautiful Act" extending tax cuts set to expire in 2025, potentially increasing the fiscal deficit by 3 to 4 trillion USD over the next decade[6][25] - The U.S. Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves significantly, from approximately 313 billion USD to 500 billion USD by the end of July[27]