基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2026 年 2 月 11 日 强于大市 染料价格上行，一体化企业 有望受益 1 月中旬以来，还原物等染料中间体价格连续上涨，推动染料价格上行。染料 行业供给集中，高安全、环保监管推动行业格局持续优化，当前价格处于历 史较低水平，成本压力有望进一步向下游传导，份额稳定、拥有相关中间体 配套的企业有望充分受益。维持行业强于大市评级。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 ◼ 染料价格处于底部区间，成本端变化、严监管等外部因素或促进行业景气 度改善。行业集中度较高，且安全监管、环保政策等因素或对已有产能形 成制约，份额稳定、安全环保投入较高、产业链配套齐全的龙头企业有望 受益。推荐：浙江龙盛，建议关注：闰土股份。 评级面临的主要风险 ◼ 下游需求不及预期；环保与安全生产风险；行业竞争加剧。 相关研究报告 《化工行业 2026 年度策略》20260128 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 证券分析师：赵 ...

石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.02%，石油石化行业占比为32.43%，能够分享下游化工品的利润修 复。伴随行业格局优化和供需结构调整，行业中长期叙事改善。 截至2月10日14:24，石化ETF（159731）跌0.29%，持仓股圣泉集团、广东宏大、扬农化工涨幅居前。 从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计14.63亿元。石化ETF最新份 额达17.63亿份，最新规模18亿元，均创成立以来新高。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 2026年开年以来，国内PC市场呈现显著的价格上行态势，打破了此前长达近4年的震荡探底格局。据隆 众资讯，截至1月底，华东地区PC国产料注塑级主流商谈价格区间11400元/吨～12850元/吨，较12月底 上涨500元/吨～1000元/吨不等，涨价幅度超出市场预期，而当月行业生产毛利同步推升至1095元/吨， 环比涨幅48.58%。其中，国产PC正牌料整体涨幅更大，且基本回升至2025年以来最高水平。中邮证券 认为，这场涨价行情的核心驱动力， ...

Core Viewpoint - The leading companies in the refrigerant industry are experiencing positive forecasts due to rising prices and demand for refrigerants, with significant profit growth expected for 2025 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Dongyue Group's stock has risen over 4%, currently trading at 12.47 HKD with a transaction volume of 89.72 million HKD [1] - Other companies in the refrigerant sector, including Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co., anticipate net profit growth exceeding 100% by 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in refrigerant prices is attributed to a recovery in fluorinated refrigerant prices and stable product sales volumes [1] - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the issuance of HFC quotas for 2026, combined with strict global supply constraints, is expected to optimize the industry landscape and enhance downstream demand, leading to a long-term upward trend in refrigerant prices and margins [1] Group 3: Industry Characteristics - Refrigerants are increasingly being recognized as essential consumer products with a "functional" nature, and the industry is developing characteristics of "essential consumer goods" and "franchise" business models [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the petrochemical ETF (159731), which has seen a decline of 1.88%, while its constituent stocks such as Guangdong Hongda, Sanmei Co., and Juhua Co. have shown positive growth [1] - The petrochemical ETF has recorded a total net inflow of 1.43 billion yuan over the past 20 trading days, with the latest share count reaching 1.692 billion and a total scale of 1.706 billion yuan [1] - The average price of the third-generation mainstream refrigerant R32 has stabilized at 63,000 yuan/ton since January 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 45%, while R134a has seen a 32% increase [1] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF and its linked funds closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.02% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.43%, indicating potential profit recovery from downstream chemical products [2] - The overall industry narrative is improving due to optimization of industry structure and supply-demand adjustments, suggesting a positive long-term outlook [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in both revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by increased sales of core products and an improved product mix [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1.321 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.88% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 283 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.38% [2] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to three main factors: 1. Increased sales volume and improved product structure, particularly in concentrated juice sales, which significantly boosted revenue [2] 2. The accelerated release of industry pattern dividends, with a competitive landscape dominated by two major players, leading to market share consolidation towards leading companies [2] 3. Advantages in production capacity and channel layout, with the company completing a capacity layout across 7 provinces and 10 factories, and experiencing significant order growth from emerging markets along the "Belt and Road" initiative [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10.64 CNY, based on a projected 19x PE for comparable companies in 2026 [3][7]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates resilient performance despite industry challenges, with a projected net profit of 1.944 billion CNY for 2025, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [3]. - The report highlights an improving industry landscape for spandex, with the company positioned to benefit from both volume and price elasticity as supply constraints tighten and demand for elastic fabrics grows [11]. - The adipic acid sector is expected to recover from its current low profitability, with the company being a leading player in the market, benefiting from industry consolidation and demand recovery [11]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 26.298 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected decline to 25.75 billion CNY in 2025, followed by growth in subsequent years [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease to 1.944 billion CNY in 2025, with a recovery expected in 2026 and 2027 [4]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 12.7% in 2025 but is projected to improve to 15.4% and 16.8% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit due to continued weak downstream demand and tightened credit policies. The gross margin has improved slightly due to stable raw material prices and ongoing optimization of product and channel structures [7] - The company has proactively adjusted product prices in response to market conditions, indicating a potential recovery in profitability as the competitive landscape improves. This includes price increases of 3%-13% for certain waterproof coatings and 3%-7% for waterproof membranes [7] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 shows a recovery trend, with expected net profits of 0.42 million, 1.28 million, and 2.09 million respectively, reflecting growth rates of -5.81%, 207.23%, and 64.19% [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.703 billion, a decrease of 8.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.20 billion, down 84.08% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 1.483 billion, down 10.93% year-on-year, with a net profit of -0.27 billion [7] - The company's gross margin for Q3 was 23.56%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 0.824 billion, which improved by 0.680 billion year-on-year [7][8] - The financial forecasts indicate a revenue decline in 2024 and 2025, with expected revenues of 6.829 billion and 6.327 billion respectively, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 [6][8]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials sector, highlighting a shift in capital towards domestic demand-driven segments due to ongoing U.S.-China tariff tensions and a focus on defensive investments [4] - The competitive landscape within the consumer building materials sector is improving, with leading companies expected to gain market share as smaller firms exit the market due to financial strain [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for a recovery cycle in profitability for leading companies in the building materials sector, particularly in coatings and waterproofing segments, as price stabilization is observed [4] Market Performance - The building materials sector has shown a performance of -9% over the last 12 months, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's -3% and the CSI 300's 4% [2][4] Recommendations - The report recommends prioritizing investments in leading companies within the building materials sector, specifically mentioning Sanke Tree, Oriental Yuhong, Rabbit Baby, and Keshun Co., as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing market consolidation [4] - For the cement sector, the report suggests a wait-and-see approach until supply-side improvements materialize, with a focus on Huaxin Cement and a watch on Shangfeng Cement and Tapai Group [4]

Group 1: Petrochemical Industry - The PTA industry in China is showing signs of a turning point as the expansion cycle ends, with production capacity increasing by 80% since 2020 and maintaining a healthy operating rate due to growing demand in textiles and consumer goods [2] - The industry has faced low profitability for 13 years, primarily due to the promotion of new technologies leading to increased competition since 2018 [2] - By 2025, the CR5 of the PTA industry in China is expected to reach 70%, with leading companies having a high proportion of new technology capacity, and no new capacity expected to be added in 2026-2027, indicating potential for industry optimization [2] Group 2: Nonferrous Metals - The Grasberg copper mine, the second largest globally, has ceased operations due to an accident, which is projected to reduce copper output by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 270,000 tons in 2026 [3] - Additionally, the Kamoa-Kakula mine's shutdown may also impact copper production in 2026, leading to a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance for copper in Q4 2025 and 2026 [3] - As a result, copper prices are expected to strengthen [3] Group 3: Construction Materials - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China has issued a plan for stable growth in the construction materials industry for 2025-2026, emphasizing the resolution of structural contradictions rather than specific growth targets [3] - The plan includes detailed measures for capacity regulation and management across different sub-industries, with increasing demands for digitalization and greening in the industry [3] - The report remains optimistic about breakthroughs in the cement industry and recommends companies such as Huaxin Cement A, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement A [3] Group 4: Key Companies - Micron Technology reported FY25Q4 revenue of $11.3 billion, a 46% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations, with adjusted net profit of $3.47 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.03 [4] - The company anticipates FY26Q1 revenue between $12.2 billion and $12.8 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 50.5%-52.5% [4] - Despite the positive earnings report, concerns about increased competition in HBM technology may pressure Micron's market position [4] Group 5: Other Companies - Nine Dragons Paper achieved FY2025 revenue of 63.24 billion yuan, a 6.3% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 1.77 billion yuan, reflecting a 135.4% increase due to its integrated pulp and paper layout [5] - The company is expected to continue solidifying its cost advantages as it advances its integrated pulp and paper strategy [5] - Wanhua Chemical anticipates a net profit of 340-420 million yuan for the first three quarters, representing a 70%-110% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for PVA optical films and automotive-grade PVB films [5]

Group 1: Cement Industry - The average national cement shipment rate in August 2025 was 45.2%, down from 48.8% in the same period last year, with a year-on-year decrease in cement production of 6.2% to 148 million tons [1][2] - The average price of cement from July to September 2025 was 338 yuan/ton, showing a slight rebound from the low point in August, with a month-on-month increase of 2 yuan/ton [2] - Companies to watch include Conch Cement (600585), Shangfeng Cement (000672), and China Resources Cement Technology (01313) due to potential marginal improvements in demand as the peak season approaches [2] Group 2: Glass Industry - From January to August 2025, the area of completed housing decreased by 17% year-on-year to 27.7 million square meters, indicating significant pressure on glass demand due to ongoing real estate downturn [3] - The daily melting capacity of float glass was 15.9 million tons as of September 2025, remaining stable compared to the end of last year, with high inventory levels of 55 million boxes [3] - Companies to focus on include Xinyi Glass (00868) and Qibin Group (601636) as the industry may see improvements in structure due to supply contraction [3] Group 3: Steel Industry - In August, both supply and demand in the steel sector weakened, with crude steel production at 77.37 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%, and apparent domestic consumption at 68.39 million tons, down 0.8% year-on-year [4] - Anticipated production adjustments in the fourth quarter may improve industry supply and demand dynamics, leading to a potential recovery in the profitability cycle [4] - Key companies to monitor include Hualing Steel (000932) as the industry’s core assets are currently undervalued [4]