Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the sugar market, the global supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season has been revised down due to potential production cuts in Brazil and India. However, Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and domestic sugar prices face pressure from new sugar supply. The short - term sentiment has improved, but the medium - to - long - term is still under supply surplus pressure [3]. - The pulp market is currently in a situation where the futures are strong, and the spot price has followed the increase. The cost of warehouse receipts has risen, but the supply pressure remains high, and the demand is supported by the high production of finished paper during the peak season [3]. - The double - offset paper market has limited improvement in demand during the peak season, and the supply is relatively abundant. Although the cost is supported by the increase in pulp prices, the upward driving force is weak [5]. - The cotton market is under pressure from increased production and weak consumption. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - The apple market is supported by the decline in new - season production and good fruit rate, and the inventory is decreasing year - on - year. The price of the 2605 contract is expected to remain strong [8]. - The jujube market has seen a decline in the futures price, and the market's expectation of production cuts has cooled. The inventory removal speed has slowed down, and the price is expected to be weak [9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The new - season production and good fruit rate decline year - on - year, and the inventory continues to decline year - on - year, supporting the valuation. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 9700 - 9800 [18]. - Jujube 2601: Exit short positions at low prices. The futures premium is high, and there is a pressure for the futures and spot prices to converge. The support range is 9400 - 9500, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11300 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2601: Short on rebounds. The global supply surplus pressure remains, and domestic new sugar supply increases. The support range is 5380 - 5400, and the pressure range is 5520 - 5550 [18]. - Pulp 2601: Wait and see. The cost of pulp warehouse receipts has increased, but the supply remains high, and the fundamentals have limited improvement. The support range is 4900 - 5000, and the pressure range is 5400 - 5500 [18]. - Double - offset Paper 2601: Wait and see. The cost is supported by the increase in pulp prices, but the supply is elastic, and the demand suppresses the price. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4400 - 4500 [18]. - Cotton 2601: Reduce short positions at low prices. The new - cotton production estimate is stable, and the consumption improvement is insufficient. The support range is 13200 - 13300, and the pressure range is 13700 - 13800 [18]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32%. As of November 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas decreased year - on - year [19]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In Shandong, the purchase price outside the warehouse was stable, and the price of medium - and small - sized apples in the cold - storage increased. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage transaction increased, and the price of the same - quality fruit in the cold - storage was higher than that outside the warehouse. In other producing areas, the situation varied. The arrival volume in the sales area decreased slightly, and the sales were stable [19][20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 2.06% month - on - month and 131.35% year - on - year. The futures price continued to fall, and the spot price followed. The market's expectation of production cuts cooled [9][22]. - **Sugar Market**: Datagro lowered the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season to 1 million tons. The Brazilian and Indian production estimates were reduced. The domestic new sugar supply increased, and the price faced pressure [3][24]. - **Pulp Market**: As of October 27, the weekly pulp inventory in sample areas decreased by 1.58% month - on - month. The domestic paper pulp import volume decreased in October, and the demand was supported by the high production of finished paper [3][26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: In October, the average theoretical gross profit margin of the double - offset paper industry was - 6.57%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points from the previous month. The cost decline was narrower than the revenue decline, and the profitability continued to decline [27]. - **Cotton Market**: The import volume of cotton in Japan and Thailand changed in September, and the export volume of Cote d'Ivoire increased in October. The national cotton production estimate in November was 741.8 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons from October [28]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2601 closed at 9504, up 297 or 3.23% [29]. - Jujube 2601 closed at 9195, down 170 or - 1.82% [29]. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5512, up 34 or 0.62% [29]. - Pulp 2511 closed at 4906, up 16 or 0.33% [29]. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13490, down 25 or - 0.18% [29]. - **Spot Market Review** - The spot price of apples was 4 yuan per catty, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.7 yuan [34]. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan [34]. - The spot price of sugar was 5760 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 560 yuan [34]. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5500 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 680 yuan [34]. - The spot price of double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 450 yuan [34]. - The spot price of cotton was 14819 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 32 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 585 yuan [34]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation - No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 1 - 5 spread is - 34, with a month - on - month increase of 26 and a year - on - year increase of 507. It is expected to fluctuate and decline, and the recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [51]. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is 390, with a month - on - month increase of 385 and a year - on - year increase of 275. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [51]. - Sugar 1 - 5 spread is 79, with a month - on - month increase of 12 and a year - on - year increase of 46. It is expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [51]. - Cotton 1 - 5 spread is - 5, with a month - on - month increase of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 60. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [51]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation - No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 7721, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 5419 [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 221861, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 154591 [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton is 4180, a month - on - month increase of 296 and a year - on - year increase of 1736 [78]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data - No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector: The international raw sugar market is under pressure and may continue to fluctuate within a range. The domestic sugar market has a supply - demand gap, and the spot price is firm. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Paper pulp fundamentals change little, but may be driven by market sentiment. The global cotton market has a slight inventory build - up, and the domestic cotton market is in a game between supply tightening expectations and weak downstream consumption. The price increase is expected to slow down [3][4][6]. - Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector: Apple futures prices continue to oscillate at a high level, supported by overall commodity sentiment, the influence of the jujube market, and its own fundamentals. Jujube futures prices are in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather during the fruit - setting period in the producing areas [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - Apple 2510: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The consumption is average, and the initial production estimate for the new season is better than before, putting pressure on the overall futures price. Support range is 7300 - 7350, and pressure range is 7900 - 8000 [17]. - Jujube 2601: Hold long positions. The overall commodity sentiment is strong, and in the third quarter, jujubes enter the production - forming period, and the price is likely to rise due to weather concerns. Support range is 10200 - 10400, and pressure range is 10500 - 11500 [17]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2509: Short - term band trading. Raw sugar has rebounded, the domestic spot price is firm, but import pressure restricts the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate. Support range is 5750 - 5770, and pressure range is 5850 - 5870 [17]. - Pulp 2507: Temporarily wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, the finished paper price is weak, overseas prices are lowered, and the domestic re - inflation trading expectation is positive for pulp. Support range is 5000 - 5100, and pressure range is 5300 - 5400 [17]. - Cotton 2509: Hold long positions cautiously. The previous negative factors have been digested, the spot supply is expected to tighten, and crude oil prices affect the market. Support range is 13200 - 13300, and pressure range is 14400 - 14500 [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamentals**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 3.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of July 16, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 80.60 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89 tons. As of July 17, it was 73.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.03 tons. The estimated national apple production is 3659.04 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.03%, but according to another estimate, the 2025 - 2026 production season shows a slight increase [18]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the mainstream transaction price is stable. In the northwest production area, early - maturing varieties are on the market, and the price is high [19]. - **Jujube Market**: As of July 18, the inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly. Affected by the rising futures price, the spot price in each sales area increased slightly. The market is in the off - season, and the terminal demand is limited. Attention should be paid to the new - season production in the producing areas [20]. - **Sugar Market**: Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks of July 2025 increased by 9.78% year - on - year. As of Tuesday morning, the spot price of Guangxi sugar - making enterprises decreased to 6010 - 6040 yuan/ton [22]. - **Pulp Market**: The demand is weak, the supplier's quotation is firm, the port inventory is high, and the downstream paper - making market is in the off - season. Arauco lowered the price of its Uruguayan factory's bleached broadleaf pulp by 10 dollars/ton to 490 dollars/ton [25]. - **Cotton Market**: In June 2025, Pakistan's textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year. China's cotton imports in June 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. As of July 15, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased [26][27]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: Apple 2510 closed at 7929, up 0.08%; Jujube 2509 closed at 9485, up 1.23%; Sugar 2509 closed at 5823, down 0.27%; Pulp 2509 closed at 5368, up 0.64%; Cotton 2509 closed at 14225, up 0.28% [27]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples was 3.90 yuan/jin, down 0.15 yuan month - on - month and 0.25 yuan year - on - year; jujubes were 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year; sugar was 6050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and 410 yuan year - on - year; pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 150 yuan year - on - year; cotton was 15549 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan month - on - month and 193 yuan year - on - year [30]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 10 - 1 spread is 126, unchanged month - on - month and up 41 year - on - year, expected to oscillate repeatedly, recommend waiting and seeing. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is - 1005, down 960 month - on - month and down 670 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, recommend waiting and seeing. - Sugar 9 - 1 spread is 170, up 1 month - on - month and down 83 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, recommend waiting and seeing [46]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Jujube: 8912 warehouse receipts, down 35 month - on - month and down 2808 year - on - year. - Sugar: 21359 warehouse receipts, down 78 month - on - month and up 5068 year - on - year. - Pulp: 255819 warehouse receipts, down 100 month - on - month and down 250723 year - on - year. - Cotton: 9436 warehouse receipts, down 65 month - on - month and down 2722 year - on - year [75]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references.