Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar, Apple, Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of soft commodities shows mixed trends, with different products having their own supply - demand situations and price trends. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for most products [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Product Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures dropped significantly today, with short - term trends likely to be volatile. The overall domestic cotton market shows strong supply and demand, but short - term trading may slow down due to the approaching Spring Festival. As of January 22, cumulative processed lint cotton was 719.0 million tons, and cumulative sales were 463.1 million tons. In December, domestic cotton imports increased. Spinning mills still have demand for raw materials, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production is nearing the end, and the market focuses on the next season's production forecast. Rainfall in Brazil's central - southern region is a concern. The sugar - to - ethanol ratio is expected to decline, and Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season may decrease. In China, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded. Both production and sales progress are slow. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Apple futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. The Spring Festival stocking peak has arrived, and the sales pace has accelerated. However, the purchase of farmers' apples is less, and the supply of high - quality apples is limited. As of January 29, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 601.01 million tons, a 9% year - on - year decrease. This week's cold - storage destocking volume was 31.31 million tons, a 45.11% year - on - year decrease. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR first rose and then fell. Global natural rubber supply is entering the reduction period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate has dropped significantly. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate continues to rise. The domestic full - steel tire operating rate decreased slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increased slightly. Shandong tire enterprises' finished product inventory continues to increase. The overall rubber situation shows general demand, reduced supply, a slight decrease in natural rubber inventory, and an increase in synthetic rubber inventory. The cost support is strong, and geopolitical risks are rising. The strategy is to adjust in a volatile manner [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures dropped significantly. Pulp is restricted by weak downstream demand, and its short - term fundamentals remain weak. As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 216.9 million tons, a 4.9% month - on - month increase. Downstream paper mills are cautious about high - priced raw material procurement. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support near the previous low [6] Logs - Log futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. The external market quotation was lowered, and the domestic spot price remained weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease. As of January 23, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 6.18 million cubic meters, a 194.29% year - on - year increase. The national port log inventory was 249 million cubic meters, an 11.7% year - on - year decrease. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

商品氛围好转， PVC跟随反弹 PVC周报 2026/01/24 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 从业资格号：F03136381 徐绍祖（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 表1：PVC月度平衡表（万吨） 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2500元/吨，周同比上涨100元；山东电石价格报2855元/吨，周同比上涨50元；兰炭陕西中料820元/吨，周同比 持平。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润再度下降到低位，乙烯制利润上升，目前估值中性偏低。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率78.7%，环比下降0.9%；其中电石法80%，环比持平；乙烯法75.7%，环比下降3.1%。上周供应端负荷下滑，主因福建万 华、山东恒通、陕西金泰负荷下降，下周预期负荷进一步下降。1月整体负荷预期仍然在高位，减产幅度偏小，供应压力较大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面目前处于出口淡季，但出口退税政策计划4月1日取消，短期进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The global sugar market remains in a state of oversupply, with India and Thailand experiencing a sugar surplus. In the domestic market, there are concerns about a decline in sugar production in Guangxi, leading to a slight recovery in domestic sugar prices. The SR2605 contract's support level is around 5000 - 5030, and the pressure level is around 5300 - 5330 [2]. - **Pulp**: Terminal users have accepted the price increases led by suppliers, causing both softwood and hardwood pulp prices to rise. The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the cost of new warehouse receipts is increasing, which may drive up the bottom of the market. However, the global market for bleached softwood kraft pulp is not tight, and the inventory of domestic and European ports is relatively high. The profitability of paper mills is low, and their ability to absorb high - priced pulp may be limited. In the short term, prices will operate in a high - range [2]. - **Double - offset Paper**: After the New Year's Day holiday, the spot market for double - offset paper remained stable. The paper mill's inventory is at a high level, and the improvement in demand alone is not enough to significantly change the supply - demand situation. The futures price may follow the basis, and the upward space may be limited [6]. - **Cotton**: The external market has limited drivers, and the futures price is in the process of bottom - building. In the domestic market, there is an expectation of tight supply at the end of the year, a potential reduction in Xinjiang's cotton production, and support from related substitutes. The 05 contract is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long term [9]. - **Apples**: The apple 2605 contract is supported by low cold - storage inventory, an unsatisfactory high - quality fruit rate, and rising acquisition prices. However, it also faces the contradiction between supply decline and the off - season of consumption, and is expected to remain in a high - range [10]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube market has shifted from a state of high premium to a state of discount relative to the spot market, and the contradiction between futures and spot prices has been alleviated. The supply is gradually becoming more abundant, and the expectation of a production reduction has decreased [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For the apple 2605 contract, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 10000 - 10200. For the jujube 2605 contract, it is recommended to buy on dips, with a support range of 8900 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For the sugar 2605 contract, it is recommended to hold short - term long positions lightly, with a support range of 5180 - 5200 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5400. For the pulp 2605 contract, it is recommended to take a long - biased approach within the range, with a support range of 5300 - 5400 and a pressure range of 5600 - 5800. For the double - offset paper 2605 contract, it is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 3900 - 4000 and a pressure range of 4200 - 4300. For the cotton 2605 contract, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 702,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 857,800 tons. The prices in the Shandong and Shaanxi production areas remained stable, and the shipment in the sales areas was stable [21][22][23]. - **Jujube Market**: As of the week before New Year's Day, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,898 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 37.17%. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market supply is gradually increasing. The overall sales in the sales areas are stable [24]. - **Sugar Market**: As of December 31, 2025, Indian sugar mills had crushed 133.921 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 24%. The sugar production reached 11.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase. In Thailand, from the 2025/26 sugar - making season to December 27, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 14.0733 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.71%. In China, as of January 7, 2026, 41 sugar mills in Yunnan had started crushing, 3 more than the same period last year. All 19 sugar mills in Guangdong had started crushing [27][28]. - **Pulp Market**: In December, the global pulp shipment volume continued to decline year - on - year and month - on - month, and the shipment volume to China decreased more than the global average. The supply pressure of pulp is gradually alleviating. Suzano, APRIL, and Eldorado have raised the prices of BHK pulp [31]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared to last Thursday, and the growth rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand is still weak, and the overall inventory pressure has increased. The operating rate is 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points [32]. - **Cotton Market**: In November 2025, Turkey imported 57,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 32.2% and a year - on - year increase of 23.6%. As of January 3, 2026, the cotton planting in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 31.2% completed. As of January 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.6675 million tons, accounting for 85.8% of the annual estimated output [33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract was 9583, a daily decrease of 31 or 0.32%. The closing price of the jujube 2605 contract was 9150, a daily increase of 175 or 1.95%. The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5281, a daily increase of 22 or 0.42%. The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5596, a daily decrease of 16 or 0.29%. The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15035, a daily increase of 180 or 1.21% [34]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan per catty, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. The spot price of sugar was 5350 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 670 yuan. The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5580 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 950 yuan. The spot price of double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 500 yuan. The spot price of cotton was 15784 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 73 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1154 yuan [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant figures are mentioned [50]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - The 5 - 10 spread of apples is 1109, with a month - on - month increase of 26 and a year - on - year increase of 1487. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips. - The 9 - 1 spread of jujubes is 90, with a month - on - month increase of 25 and a year - on - year decrease of 630. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see. - The 1 - 5 spread of sugar is 26, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 48. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. - The 5 - 9 spread of cotton is - 190, a month - on - month decrease of 5 and a year - on - year decrease of 40. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [58]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant figures are mentioned [63]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 2263, a month - on - month increase of 158 and a year - on - year decrease of 258. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 6005, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 8358. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 135506, a month - on - month increase of 4452 and a year - on - year decrease of 203230. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton is 7049, a month - on - month increase of 225 and a year - on - year increase of 2971 [87]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data analysis provided, only relevant figures are mentioned [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, last week there were more changes in PTA plants, but the downstream polyester load also decreased. The supply - demand pattern of PTA itself changed little. The futures market followed the cost side to rise significantly. The spot basis loosened. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and the changes of upstream and downstream plants [6]. - For MEG, last week the entry of ethylene glycol ships into tanks was smooth. It is expected that the visible inventory will still increase at the beginning of next week. Fundamentally, ethylene glycol has been accumulating inventory in the near - term, but the supply - demand structure will improve from March. This week, polyester plants implemented moderate production cuts, and the monthly average load was revised down. The overseas supply of ethylene glycol will be further squeezed, and it will gradually be reflected in the import volume from February. In reality, the high port inventory and the continuous accumulation situation will restrict the rebound height of ethylene glycol. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will be range - bound in the near future, and there is certain buying support at low levels [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Hints - **PTA**: - On Friday, the mainstream of December goods was traded at a discount of 65 to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5100 - 5250. January goods were traded at a discount of 60 to the 05 contract, and February goods at a discount of 50. December warehouse receipts were traded at around 05 - 73. The mainstream spot basis on that day was 05 - 65. The spot price was 5170, and the 05 contract basis was - 110, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The PTA factory inventory was 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract increased [6][7]. - **MEG**: - On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was widely adjusted, and the market negotiation was average. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened higher and then weakened, with weak buying sentiment. In the morning, the ethylene glycol market was narrowly sorted at a low level, and the spot was negotiated at a discount of 160 - 152 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. In the afternoon, the market fluctuated upward, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. At the end of the session, next - week's spot was negotiated at a discount of 146 - 148 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market fluctuated upward. In the morning, the recent shipments were negotiated at around 440 - 442 US dollars/ton, and the buyers in the market were cautious. In the afternoon, the negotiation of January shipments rebounded to around 448 - 450 US dollars/ton, and the trading was stalemate. The domestic and foreign market transaction negotiation ranges were 3632 - 3700 yuan/ton and 440 - 448 US dollars/ton respectively. The spot price was 3670, and the 05 contract basis was - 176, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The total inventory in the East China region was 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract decreased [8][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Device Changes**: - A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has stopped for maintenance as planned recently and is expected to restart around the end of January. - The 1.1 - million - ton Ineos and 2.2 - million - ton Yisheng Ningbo plants have restarted. - A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has restarted after heating up. It was shut down for maintenance at the end of November. - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Ningbo is expected to resume operation on the 24th. It was shut down for maintenance in November [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as EG production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory [14]. - **Price and Profit Data**: - It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers from December 25 to December 26, 2025, as well as the profit data of different production methods of PTA and MEG and polyester products [15]. - **Historical Data Charts**: There are multiple historical data charts, including the price, production profit, start - up rate, inventory, and spread data of PTA, MEG, PET bottle chips, polyester fibers, etc., covering the time range from 2020 to 2025 [18][21][24][27][28][32][35][39][42][45][47][50][52][54][57][59][61][62][63][66][68][70][71][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Fed cut rates as expected, gold price regained strength, recommended to go long; silver overseas market was tight, but domestic inventory had accumulated for days, recommended to take profit on long positions temporarily [1] - Base Metals: - Copper: Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] - Aluminum: Expected to fluctuate due to overseas supply disruptions, warm macro - environment and low inventory [2] - Alumina: Faced downward pressure, follow the impact of Guinea's election on the ore end [2][3] - Zinc: Go long at low prices and be cautious about chasing highs [3] - Lead: Operate in a range, buy low and sell high [3] - Industrial Silicon: Observe as the market was in a weak oscillation with no clear direction [3] - Lithium Carbonate: Observe in the short - term, pay attention to the resumption of production rhythm and year - end energy storage policy guidance [3][4] - Polysilicon: Expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 50,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton [4] - Tin: Wait for low - buying opportunities [4] - Black Industry: - Rebar: Mainly observe, try to short the RB05 contract [5] - Iron Ore: Mainly observe [5][6] - Coking Coal: Mainly observe [6] - Agricultural Products: - Soybean Meal: US soybeans were weak, domestic market was near - strong and far - weak [6] - Corn: Spot price was expected to weaken, futures price to oscillate and fall [6] - Edible Oils: Oscillate weakly and show variety differentiation [6] - Cotton: Buy low with a price reference range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [6] - Eggs: Futures price was expected to oscillate [7] - Pigs: Futures price was expected to oscillate [7] - Energy and Chemicals: - LLDPE: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8] - PVC: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [8] - Glass: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [8][9] - PP: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [9] - Crude Oil: Be used as a short - position configuration, short at high prices after geopolitical premiums [9] - Styrene: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on styrene or conduct pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long styrene profit in the medium - long term [9] - Soda Ash: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold) - Market Performance: Gold price oscillated, international gold price basically closed flat [1] - Fundamentals: US November non - farm data was good, but unemployment rate soared; Fed had internal differences; domestic gold ETF had a small inflow, and inventories in different places changed [1] - Trading Strategy: Go long [1] Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper price oscillated weakly [2] - Fundamentals: US non - farm data and unemployment rate affected the dollar index; supply was tight, demand had price differences, and the London structure changed [2] - Trading Strategy: Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.34% [2] - Fundamentals: High - load production on the supply side, slightly decreased weekly aluminum product start - up rate on the demand side [2] - Trading Strategy: Expected to oscillate [2] Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.16% [2] - Fundamentals: Stable production capacity on the supply side, high - load production of electrolytic aluminum plants on the demand side [2] - Trading Strategy: Faced downward pressure, follow Guinea's election impact [2][3] Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the SHFE zinc 2601 contract decreased by 1.71% [3] - Fundamentals: Macro - warming and supply tightening; overseas and domestic supply issues; demand was differentiated; import window was closed [3] - Trading Strategy: Go long at low prices, be cautious about chasing highs [3] Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the SHFE lead 2601 contract decreased by 1.09% [3] - Fundamentals: Mild supply - demand, slightly decreased smelter start - up rate, slightly increased battery start - up rate, possible inventory accumulation [3] - Trading Strategy: Operate in a range [3] Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract increased by 0.18% [3] - Fundamentals: Increased furnace - opening quantity on the supply side, social inventory accumulated; demand in different industries had different trends [3] - Trading Strategy: Observe as the market was in a weak oscillation [3] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 decreased by 0.46% [3] - Fundamentals: Increased lithium concentrate price, increased production, decreased demand in some materials; expected to maintain destocking [3][4] - Trading Strategy: Observe in the short - term [3][4] Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract increased by 0.18% [4] - Fundamentals: Stable production on the supply side, decreased demand in related industries; expected inventory accumulation [4] - Trading Strategy: Expected to fluctuate widely [4] Tin - Market Performance: Tin price oscillated weakly [4] - Fundamentals: Tight supply, increased supply from Myanmar; demand had delivery and premium situations [4] - Trading Strategy: Wait for low - buying opportunities [4] Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 7 yuan/ton [5] - Fundamentals: Decreased inventory, weak supply - demand, structural differentiation; high - loss of steel mills, possible production reduction [5] - Trading Strategy: Observe, try to short the RB05 contract [5] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 8.5 yuan/ton [5] - Fundamentals: Increased shipment, decreased port inventory; weak supply - demand, decreased iron - water production; marginal weakening of supply - demand [5][6] - Trading Strategy: Observe [5][6] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 4 yuan/ton [6] - Fundamentals: Decreased iron - water production, deteriorated steel mill profits; first - round coke price cut implemented, second - round proposed; inventory was at a neutral level [6] - Trading Strategy: Observe [6] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans continued to decline [6] - Fundamentals: Slight reduction in the near - term supply, large supply in the far - term in South America; strong US soybean crushing and slow export [6] - Trading Strategy: US soybeans were weak, domestic market was near - strong and far - weak [6] Corn - Market Performance: Futures price oscillated narrowly, spot price slightly decreased [6] - Fundamentals: Low channel inventory, short - term supply shortage, but downstream losses and reduced procurement enthusiasm [6] - Trading Strategy: Spot price to weaken, futures price to oscillate and fall [6] Edible Oils - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil continued to fall [6] - Fundamentals: Seasonal production reduction but year - on - year increase on the supply side; weak export on the demand side; near - term inventory accumulation [6] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly and show variety differentiation [6] Cotton - Market Performance: US cotton futures price started to fall, Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rise [6] - Fundamentals: Slightly bearish US cotton export data, Brazilian cotton export increased; strong buying support for Zhengzhou cotton but weak yarn price increase [6] - Trading Strategy: Buy low in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [6] Eggs - Market Performance: Futures price was weak, spot price increased [7] - Fundamentals: Decreased laying - hen inventory, slowed de - capacity; low price could drive demand, but high price reduced downstream purchasing willingness [7] - Trading Strategy: Futures price to oscillate [7] Pigs - Market Performance: Futures price oscillated, spot price slightly decreased [7] - Fundamentals: Sufficient supply, seasonal increase in demand; increased southern curing demand, expected increase in slaughter volume [7] - Trading Strategy: Futures price to oscillate [7] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [8] - Fundamentals: New device production and some device shutdowns on the supply side, reduced import expected; off - season for downstream demand [8] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8] PVC - Market Performance: V05 increased by 1.9% [8] - Fundamentals: Boosted by macro - sentiment, increased supply, decreased downstream start - up rate, high social inventory [8] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [8] Glass - Market Performance: FG05 decreased by 0.2% [8] - Fundamentals: Decreased price, increased production reduction, seasonal inventory decline, weak supply - demand, low valuation [8][9] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [8][9] PP - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [9] - Fundamentals: New device production and some device shutdowns on the supply side, opened export window; decreased downstream start - up rate [9] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [9] Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil price continuously fell to a five - year low [9] - Fundamentals: Supply was affected by sanctions and production increases; demand was in the off - season; inventory was above the five - year average [9] - Trading Strategy: Be used as a short - position configuration, short at high prices after geopolitical premiums [9] Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [9] - Fundamentals: High pure benzene and styrene inventories; decreased downstream demand [9] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on styrene or conduct pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long styrene profit in the medium - long term [9] Soda Ash - Market Performance: sa05 increased by 1.4% [10] - Fundamentals: New device production, price decline, high inventory, weak downstream demand [10] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The gold market has strong performance, with prices hitting new highs, and the silver increase is greater than that of gold. The market focuses on the US government shutdown risk and Trump's tariff risk. The short - term gold price is expected to run at a high level with increased volatility [3][14]. - The treasury bond futures are in the stage of shock bottom - building. After adjustment, the bond market valuation is gradually reasonable. The bond market will gradually desensitize to negative factors and return to fundamental trading [16]. - The demand for动力煤is weak, and the price is expected to remain near the long - term agreement price. Attention should be paid to coal supply policies [4][19]. - The iron ore price is expected to continue the box - type shock, and the trend market needs to wait. Attention should be paid to the demand for finished products after the National Day and the changes in coal supply policies [22]. - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decline in September, and the inventory - building pressure will slow down significantly. It is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [23][24]. - The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and there may be a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [29]. - The external cotton market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the domestic new cotton harvest will face challenges in downstream demand. The market pressure in the fourth quarter is large [33]. - The coking coal and coke market shows different trends between spot and futures before the festival. The spot price rises due to pre - festival stockpiling, while the futures are worried about post - festival demand and show a shock trend [34]. - The supply and demand of豆粕is weak, and the future price is mainly driven by policies. Attention should be paid to the USDA quarterly inventory report, South American weather and Sino - US relations [38]. - The steel price has limited upward space and needs to pay attention to the callback risk. It is recommended to take a light - position shock approach before the festival [40][41]. - The starch price difference may be undervalued, and there may be a safety margin for widening at low prices [43]. - The medium - term view of玉米is bearish, and the 11 - contract may decline more than the 01 - contract after the National Day [44]. - The red date futures price has risen sharply, and it is recommended to operate short - term. Attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and downstream consumption [47]. - The lithium carbonate price may decline in the long - term under the pressure of inventory - building at the end of the year, but the decline space is limited in the peak season before the actual resumption of production [50]. - The lead price is expected to remain in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [52]. - The zinc price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [54]. - The PX price will be in shock adjustment in the short - term [56]. - The PTA price is in a shock trend, and it is recommended to adopt a band strategy [59]. - The downward space of the caustic soda futures price is limited [62]. - The paper pulp market is expected to be in a weak shock [64]. - The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [65]. - The fundamentals of苯乙烯are weak in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to whether the sentiment can be boosted [67]. - The soda ash price is recommended to be shorted at high prices, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [68]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting on soda ash 2601 [70]. - The container freight index fluctuates greatly before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [72][73]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin is cautious about the prospect of interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman believes that decisive action is needed to cut interest rates. The US 8 - month core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [12][13][14]. - The gold price fluctuated and closed higher on Friday, hitting a new high. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals were strong, and silver rose more than gold. The market focuses on the US government shutdown risk and Trump's tariff risk. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out 165.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 411.5 billion yuan on the same day [16]. - Some institutions may choose to hold cash for the holiday due to concerns about the new regulations on public bond funds. However, the impact is limited. The treasury bond futures are in the stage of shock bottom - building, and it is recommended to take a shock approach in the short - term [16][17]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (动力煤) - Some coal mines stopped or reduced production at the end of the month, and the supply decreased slightly. The downstream only maintained rigid demand procurement, and the port coal price stagnated and declined this week [18]. - The demand is weak, and the price is expected to remain near the long - term agreement price. Attention should be paid to coal supply policies [19]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The construction of the Simandou project has made breakthroughs, and the equipment production and shipment are advancing simultaneously [20]. - The iron ore price is in a shock market, and it is expected to continue the box - type shock. Attention should be paid to the demand for finished products after the National Day and the changes in coal supply policies [22]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From September 1 to 25, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 4.14% month - on - month [23]. - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decline in September, and the inventory - building pressure will slow down significantly. It is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [23][24]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the week of September 24, the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.1039 million tons, a decrease of 5.44% from the previous week [25]. - In the 25/26 sugar - making season, 3 sugar mills in Xinjiang have started operation. The sugar production in Xinjiang is expected to be about 700,000 tons [26]. - The market expects that the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil will increase by 15% year - on - year in the first half of September. The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and there may be a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [28][29]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The CCI in India may purchase cotton without limit due to the low cotton price. The new cotton in India has been on the market, and the cotton price in the northern region has dropped by about 5 - 6% in the past two weeks [30]. - The export signing volume of US cotton decreased in the week of September 12 - 18, and the shipment volume increased. The external cotton market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the domestic new cotton harvest will face challenges in downstream demand. The market pressure in the fourth quarter is large [32][33]. 2.6 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. Before the festival, the coking coal market showed different trends between spot and futures. The spot price rose due to pre - festival stockpiling, while the futures were worried about post - festival demand and showed a shock trend [34]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (豆粕) - It is estimated that the soybean crushing volume in China will be 9.42 million tons in October, and the arrival volume of imported soybeans is expected to be 9.49 million tons, 8.5 million tons, and 8 million tons from October to December respectively [35][36]. - The supply and demand of豆粕is weak, and the future price is mainly driven by policies. Attention should be paid to the USDA quarterly inventory report, South American weather and Sino - US relations [38]. 2.8 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased to 2.42 million tons. The inventory of five major varieties decreased slightly this week, and the demand for building materials increased seasonally, but the demand elasticity is not optimistic. The steel price has limited upward space and needs to pay attention to the callback risk. It is recommended to take a light - position shock approach before the festival [39][40][41]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on September 22 were - 55 yuan/ton, - 179 yuan/ton, 7 yuan/ton, and - 82 yuan/ton respectively [42]. - The starch price difference may be undervalued, and there may be a safety margin for widening at low prices [43]. 2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of September 25, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 26.01 days, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous week [44]. - The medium - term view of玉米is bearish, and the 11 - contract may decline more than the 01 - contract after the National Day [44]. 2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market fluctuated slightly. The futures price of red dates rose sharply, and it is recommended to operate short - term. Attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and downstream consumption [45][47]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Longpan Times stopped production on September 25 and is expected to resume production in November. Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integration project started trial production, and Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project was officially put into operation [48][49][50]. - The lithium carbonate price may decline in the long - term under the pressure of inventory - building at the end of the year, but the decline space is limited in the peak season before the actual resumption of production [50]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On September 26, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.63/ton. The lead price is expected to remain in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [51][52]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On September 26, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $39.84/ton. The zinc price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [53][54]. 2.15 Energy Chemical Industry (PX) - A refinery in the northeast plans to shut down its reforming unit for about 10 days starting from September 27. The PX price will be in shock adjustment in the short - term [55][56]. 2.16 Energy Chemical Industry (PTA) - The negotiation in the PTA spot market weakened, and the basis loosened. The PTA price is in a shock trend, and it is recommended to adopt a band strategy [57][59]. 2.17 Energy Chemical Industry (Caustic Soda) - On September 26, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally. The downward space of the caustic soda futures price is limited [60][62]. 2.18 Energy Chemical Industry (Paper Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mainly stable. The paper pulp market is expected to be in a weak shock [63][64]. 2.19 Energy Chemical Industry (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market was weakly sorted. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [65]. 2.20 Energy Chemical Industry (Styrene) - The weekly consumption of styrene's main downstream products decreased by 4.46% from the previous week. The fundamentals of苯乙烯are weak in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to whether the sentiment can be boosted [66][67]. 2.21 Energy Chemical Industry (Soda Ash) - On September 26, the price of soda ash in the South China market remained stable. The soda ash price is recommended to be shorted at high prices, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [67][68]. 2.22 Energy Chemical Industry (Float Glass) - On September 26, the price of float glass in the Shahe market increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting on soda ash 2601 [69][70]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight) - The EU's shipping fuel regulations have "killed" the demand for methanol - powered ships. Before the festival, the container freight index fluctuated greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [71][72][73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity prices rebounded due to positive progress in tariff negotiations, but there is still supply pressure on oil prices, and caution is needed for oil price rebounds [1]. - For fuel oil, in the short - term, the absolute prices of FU and LU may remain stable, and one can consider a strategy to shrink the LU - FU spread later [2]. - The absolute price of asphalt may remain stable in the short - term, but its upward space may be limited [2]. - The polyester market is expected to be relatively strong, with PTA following the cost side and showing a strong - side shock, and ethylene glycol expected to see significant inventory reduction in May [2][3]. - The rubber market is in a state of shock, affected by the development of the automotive industry and tariff negotiations [3]. - The methanol market is in a state of shock, and prices may recover due to the results of Sino - US trade negotiations [5]. - The polyolefin market is expected to be relatively strong, and short - term prices will recover due to Sino - US negotiations and reduced tariffs [5]. - The PVC market is in a state of shock and is expected to perform weakly in the energy - chemical sector [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI June contract rose $0.93 to $61.95 per barrel, a 1.52% increase; Brent July contract rose $1.05 to $64.96 per barrel, a 1.64% increase; SC2506 closed at 482 yuan per barrel, up 7.6 yuan per barrel, a 1.6% increase. Sino - US tariff negotiations made progress, and Iraq plans to reduce exports in May and June. The market is in a state of shock [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, FU2507 rose 2.5% to 2996 yuan per ton, and LU2506 rose 1.56% to 3518 yuan per ton. Sino - US trade negotiations improved market sentiment. The market is in a state of shock [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, BU2506 rose 1.55% to 3481 yuan per ton. Sino - US trade negotiations improved market sentiment. Supply is expected to increase, and demand in the north will increase slightly while that in the south is affected by rain. The market is in a state of shock [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 rose 2.79% to 4710 yuan per ton, EG2509 rose 1.99% to 4302 yuan per ton, and PX futures rose 2.81% to 6654 yuan per ton. The market is expected to be relatively strong [2]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, RU2509 rose 405 yuan per ton to 15025 yuan per ton, NR rose 405 yuan per ton to 12820 yuan per ton, and BR rose 370 yuan per ton to 11820 yuan per ton. The market is in a state of shock [3]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2422 yuan per ton. Supply is high, and demand has some uncertainties. The market is in a state of shock [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 7150 - 7300 yuan per ton. Refinery maintenance is increasing, and the market may have an intention to rush exports. The market is expected to be relatively strong [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the price in the East China market declined slightly. Supply is high, and demand is relatively stable but will enter the off - season. The market is in a state of shock [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on May 12 and May 9, 2025 [7]. Market News - Sino - US reached an agreement in Switzerland last weekend to reduce current high tariffs by 115%. The tariff reduction will last for 90 days, and further negotiations are expected [9]. - Preliminary surveys show that US crude oil and gasoline inventories may decline last week, while distillate inventories are expected to increase. As of May 9, US crude oil inventories are expected to decline by about 2 million barrels [9]. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [11][12][13] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis trends of main contracts for various energy - chemical products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [26][28][32] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread trends of different contracts for various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [43][45][48] 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio trends between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [59][61][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit trends of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][69][72] Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has in - depth research on the energy industry and has won many industry awards [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won some industry awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC. With a background in engineering and finance, he has experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [77].