如何从宏观视角解读本轮美伊冲突升级的成因，并判断其对全球通胀与资产定 价的潜在影响？ 美伊冲突具有长期历史背景，但本轮升级的直接特征是美国发起军事行动、伊 朗采取反制，实际冲突强度高于部分地缘专家此前"伊朗未必强硬"的预期。 从成因侧看，今年（2026 年）美国政策重心更偏"对内"，核心变量是中期 选举压力：去年（2025 年）美国在关税议题上强势施压以强化存在感，但今 年（2026 年）总体趋于偃旗息鼓、重心对内；同时开年以来连续出现黑天鹅 事件（包括围绕格陵兰、委内瑞拉以及此次伊朗），不排除存在转移国内中期 选举压力的动机。当前美国经济修复力度略不及预期，叠加对美联储施压降息 以缓和内部经济矛盾的背景，使得外部冲突升级更可能被用于缓释国内政治经 济压力。 从大类资产与通胀路径看，基准判断仍是继续看好大宗商品，但需要 重点把握商品内部的轮动结构与输入性通胀风险的边际上升。2026 年美国宏 美伊冲突强化了"地缘政治冲突与逆全球化推动金属定价发生根本性转 变"的主线逻辑，黄金与白银受益最为确定，战略金属定价"易涨难 跌"的趋势可能进一步被夯实。 外煤供给扰动叠加印尼煤炭供给政策转向，煤炭进入价值重估阶段，油 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a continuation of the risk appetite recovery observed before the Spring Festival, characterized by "increased volume and structural differentiation" in the first trading week after the holiday [1][3]. Market Performance - The overall market trend is influenced by rising overseas uncertainties, with geopolitical and tariff narratives resurfacing, leading to a pullback in the Hong Kong stock market while energy and resource sectors perform relatively well [1][3]. - A-shares exhibit a stronger internal momentum, maintaining high trading volumes with total turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan [1][3]. Market Structure - The market style has shifted from a focus on "pure software/AI applications" to "hard technology + cyclical stocks" [1][3]. - The cyclical sector has shown a phase of strength, driven by geopolitical risk premiums pushing up energy prices and uncertainties around tariffs leading to "re-inflation trades" [1][3]. - The hard technology sector is characterized by a "discerning" approach, with funds favoring companies with verifiable orders and performance in the computing hardware chain (e.g., optical communication, PCB, liquid cooling), while being sensitive to AI software themes lacking performance validation [1][3]. Investment Strategy - The first week after the holiday has reinforced market risk appetite, but variables such as overseas geopolitical issues, tariffs, and interest rate expectations may amplify volatility [4]. - The current investment focus is clear, transitioning from narrative-driven to performance-driven, with attention on the following areas: - Emphasis on "performance verification" and "domestic substitution," particularly in AI computing hardware chains, semiconductor equipment, and materials, while avoiding high-volatility stocks without performance support [4]. - Focus on cyclical and resource sectors, leveraging the "hedging attributes" of geopolitical premiums and re-inflation, with potential value in energy, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals, while also considering traditional industries benefiting from "anti-involution" [4]. - Defensive and thematic directions, suggesting high-dividend sectors may offer some "anti-volatility" value amid increased fluctuations, with recommendations to base themes on policy documents and industry progress, avoiding purely conceptual extrapolations [4].

马年首个交易日即将到来，新的一年该布局哪些板块，如何做好资产配置才能稳健获利？国投期货首席 宏观分析师李而实结合过去几年市场的行情脉络，针对马年资产配置逻辑、潜力板块及操作逻辑给出了 建议。 国内市场进入再通胀交易阶段 李而实表示，2024年以来，国内市场进入了再通胀交易阶段。 "去年国内宏观政策发力叠加美联储货币政策转向，使市场重估大中华区大类资产的价值。对大类资产 而言，必然是一个国债交易难度增加、股票市场表现强势、商品再通胀交易逻辑扩散的过程。"在李而 实看来，过去几年商品市场各板块表现分化，并未出现普涨行情。在宏观流动性充裕的背景下，商品市 场上金属板块表现强势，股票市场上科技板块领涨。 李而实认为，进入马年之后，市场有两个方向相对比较明确：一是随着人民币升值趋势确立，国内资产 偏积极的环境仍然存在；二是随着金融属性偏强的品种价格大幅上涨，市场结构大概率会进入一个再平 衡的过程，即"盈利交易兴起，再通胀交易扩散"。 "从股票市场来看，在科技板块和以有色金属为代表的周期板块大幅上涨之后，一些下游的大市值消费 类板块的配置价值慢慢凸显；商品市场上，在金属板块连续几年保持强势后，其他与经济内循环相关的 板块 ...

编者按 辞蛇岁，迎马年。在2026年新春佳节之际，期货日报邀请各大机构相关专家，盘点当前大类资产市场态 势，掘金新一年核心配置机会与优质投资赛道。 马年首个交易日即将到来，新的一年该布局哪些板块，如何做好资产配置才能稳健获利？国投期货首席 宏观分析师李而实结合过去几年市场的行情脉络，针对马年资产配置逻辑、潜力板块及操作逻辑给出了 建议。 国内市场进入再通胀交易阶段 李而实表示，2024年以来，国内市场进入了再通胀交易阶段。 "去年国内宏观政策发力叠加美联储货币政策转向，使市场重估大中华区大类资产的价值。对大类资产 而言，必然是一个国债交易难度增加、股票市场表现强势、商品再通胀交易逻辑扩散的过程。"在李而 实看来，过去几年商品市场各板块表现分化，并未出现普涨行情。在宏观流动性充裕的背景下，商品市 场上金属板块表现强势，股票市场上科技板块领涨。 李而实认为，进入马年之后，市场有两个方向相对比较明确：一是随着人民币升值趋势确立，国内资产 偏积极的环境仍然存在；二是随着金融属性偏强的品种价格大幅上涨，市场结构大概率会进入一个再平 衡的过程，即"盈利交易兴起，再通胀交易扩散"。 "从股票市场来看，在科技板块和以有色金属 ...

Group 1 - The current global market is experiencing a rare "high noise, high velocity" period, making it difficult for even seasoned traders to navigate. Goldman Sachs' hedge fund business head, Tony Pasquariello, noted that this level of unpredictability is reminiscent of major trauma periods like the global financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - The core anxiety in the market stems from two opposing narratives regarding AI: one that sees AI as a disruptive risk leading to sell-offs in "victim" sectors, and another that questions the return on investment from AI capital expenditures. This tension is causing significant volatility, with aggressive sell-offs occurring whenever marginal AI risks are perceived [1][4] - The S&P 500 index has stalled around the 7000-point mark this year, failing to break through, while beneath the surface, there are turbulent undercurrents. Goldman Sachs' "AI leaders vs. laggards" pair trade recently achieved its largest single-day gain, primarily driven by shorting "laggards" [1][4] Group 2 - Global capital allocation is subtly shifting due to crowded U.S. markets and valuation pressures, with incremental funds increasingly flowing overseas. The South Korean and Japanese stock markets have recently shown strong performance, particularly the KOSPI index, which has doubled since the end of 2024 and achieved its best weekly performance in five years [3][8] - The current market environment is filled with contradictory signals, making investment challenging. There is a rare phenomenon of simultaneous buying in both cyclical assets (like industrial stocks and raw materials) and defensive assets (like consumer staples and utilities) [4] - The debate surrounding AI's fundamental impact is intensifying, focusing on who the beneficiaries and victims are, and whether AI leads to value creation or destruction. This debate has resulted in increased volatility for related stocks and thematic baskets, particularly in the software sector [6] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market has seen a stagnation in the wake of non-farm payroll and CPI data releases, while overseas markets have experienced a surge. According to Goldman Sachs strategist Ryan Hammond, non-U.S. equity funds have seen an inflow of $89 billion this year, compared to only $16 billion for U.S. equity funds [8] - The South Korean stock market is leading this trend, with the MSCI Korea index rising 28% year-to-date in U.S. dollar terms. Goldman Sachs' chief equity strategist for Asia Pacific, Tim Moe, maintains an overweight rating and has raised the KOSPI index target to 6400 points, citing impressive earnings growth and attractive valuations [10] - The Japanese market has also performed well, with the Nikkei index recently rising by 5%. Notably, the correlation between the Japanese stock market and the currency has seemingly reversed, indicating a shift from "currency depreciation trades" to healthier "reflation trades" [12] Group 4 - Despite the uncertain macro environment, hedge funds have shown remarkable resilience. Tony Pasquariello observed that macro discretionary funds accumulated significant profit buffers in January, while long-short equity strategies have generally avoided risks [14] - Looking ahead, market trends appear to favor active management over passive investment, and liquidity is becoming more favorable for liquid assets rather than illiquid ones. Strategies that can adapt to narrative changes in this noisy and fast-paced market seem to be gaining an advantage [14]

(原油) 隔夜夜盘铜价震荡调整，但美盘铜尾盘随贵金属收回跌势。昨日美伦价差盘中反转，LME现货贴水扩 至93美元。贵金属短线波动大，市场焦点转向地缘、美国政府月底"停摆"、甚至美国内部冲突风 险。关注短期均线位置强弱,延续铜价高位震荡且倾向调整的看法。 【铝】 夜盘油价大幅反弹，Brent原油涨至接近67美元/桶，NTI接近63美元/桶。冬季风暴天气导致美国能 源基础设施和电网承压，石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的 15%。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前恢复不到一半的正常产量，该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始 终不及预期。API库存数据显示原油去库,数据偏利多。美元指数连续走弱亦提振油价表现。意外天 气导致原油供应受限的因素迅速得到计价，然目前三大机构平衡表显示202601全球原油市场库存压 力显著，市场谨慎对待天气和地缘因素带来的短期供应犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油价上行空间的 长期因素。 【责金属】 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金逻辑稳固，银铂兜波动风险较高。特朗 普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second week of January, food price declines narrowed, while industrial product spot and futures prices rose. After the holiday, the resumption of work was relatively fast, and production generally improved compared to pre - holiday levels [37]. - For the bond market, January is an important window for the economy to achieve a "good start". Benefiting from the early release of "two new" policies and the expansion of the early batch of "two major" policies, the post - holiday resumption of work was fast, and production improved. The manufacturing PMI in December exceeded expectations in terms of production and orders. With more working days in January this year compared to last year and the impact of pre - Spring Festival stockpiling and rush work, the prosperity in production and exports is expected to continue, and the PMI at the end of the month may still be strong. Macro front - loaded efforts and the promotion of the "anti - involution" concept may boost short - term re - inflation trading expectations. The suppression of the bond market sentiment by the equity and commodity markets may still occur repeatedly, so high - frequency verification is needed, especially the slope and persistence of price index recovery [37]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Inflation - related: Food Price Declines Narrowed - Pork price increases expanded, and the food price index showed a mild decline. From January 5th to January 9th, the average wholesale price of pork in the country increased by 1.45% week - on - week, and the decline of vegetable prices narrowed to - 0.9%. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively week - on - week, with the declines narrowing [10]. 3.2 Import and Export - related: Container Shipping Demand was Stable, and Freight Rate Indices were Divergent - Container shipping demand was basically stable, and route freight rates were divergent. This week, the CCFI index increased by 4.2% week - on - week, while the SCFI decreased by 0.5% week - on - week. The export container shipping market was generally stable. The demand and freight rates of European and North American routes were stable and rising, while the freight rates of routes such as Australia - New Zealand and South America declined significantly, dragging down the SCFI [15]. - In terms of port throughput, from December 29th to January 4th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 6.3% and decreased by 0.7% respectively compared to the pre - holiday week. The post - holiday resumption of work was fast, and there was a month - on - month improvement [15]. - The BDI and CDFI indices continued to weaken. Affected by the Christmas and New Year holidays, the international dry bulk shipping market entered the traditional off - season, with limited market trading activity. The BDI and CDFI decreased by 5.8% and 3.2% respectively, with the declines expanding [15]. 3.3 Industry - related: Industrial Production Rhythm Accelerated after the Festival - There was an expectation of tightened coal supply, and coal prices rose. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.8% week - on - week, compared with a 1.4% decline in the previous week. Before the New Year's Day, the heating load did not meet expectations, the demand for household electricity was weak, and the daily consumption of power plants decreased slightly. After the festival, the temperature dropped in the central and eastern regions, and the daily consumption of power plants increased. However, coal inventories were still relatively high compared to the same period. End - users mainly consumed inventories and ensured long - term contract shipments, with limited incremental demand. Before the Spring Festival, some coal mines completed their annual production and sales tasks and successively stopped production for maintenance, resulting in a phased tightening of pit - mouth supply and an obvious reduction in port inventories, which boosted coal prices [19][20]. - The decline of rebar prices expanded. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreased by 0.36% week - on - week, compared with a 0.02% decline in the previous week. Before the festival, the profitability of steel mills stabilized at a low level, and some blast furnaces resumed production after maintenance. After the holiday, more production resumed, the rebar output continued to rise, and the inventories in factories and society ended the destocking trend and turned to inventory accumulation [20]. - The asphalt start - up rate was at a low level compared to the same period at the beginning of the year. This week, the start - up rate of asphalt plants decreased by 6.8 percentage points to 25.4% week - on - week, and was 1.6 percentage points lower year - on - year, still at a seasonal low. The road construction demand in the north basically stagnated, while the demand in South China and Southwest China was okay, but mainly focused on digesting existing inventories, with limited boost to production increments [20]. - Copper prices continued to rise. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 2.8% and 4.8% respectively week - on - week, maintaining a strong trend. On the one hand, there was still an expectation of tightened supply. On the other hand, the good performance of China's manufacturing PMI and the early implementation of macro - policies such as the "two new" policies boosted confidence and supported copper prices [24]. - Glass futures turned from decline to rise, and the production and sales improved significantly after the festival. The futures market was mainly driven by the general rise of commodities. In the spot market, the trading was good this week, and the price trend increased. Before the New Year's Day holiday, the trading performance was weak. After the festival, boosted by macro - policies and the re - inflation trading in the futures market, the production and sales performance in many places improved significantly, and the industry's inventory pressure was relieved [24]. 3.4 Investment - related: At the Beginning of the Month, it was the Off - season, and Real Estate Sales Declined Slightly - Cement prices continued to decline. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week, and the decline continued to expand. The performance varied by region. In East China, the demand declined slightly due to the holiday and cooling, while in Central and South China and Northwest China, the construction demand of construction sites was released, and the increase in the concrete shipping volume boosted the cement price to maintain a slight increase [26]. - New home sales decreased month - on - month. From January 2nd to January 8th, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 1.032 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 67% compared with the previous week (December 26th - January 1st). The decline slope was similar to that in the same period in 2025, and the year - on - year decrease for the single week was 3%. The transactions during the New Year's Day holiday maintained the characteristics of the traditional off - season [30]. - Second - hand home sales continued to decline. From last Friday to this Thursday, the transaction area of second - hand homes decreased by 7.7% month - on - month, and it decreased by 7.3% month - on - month last week (December 26th - January 1st), indicating a continuous cooling of transactions [30]. 3.5 Consumption: Passenger Car Retail Sales in December Decreased by 13% Year - on - year - In December, passenger car retail sales decreased by 13% year - on - year and increased by 3% month - on - month. According to the Passenger Car Association, the total retail sales of the passenger car market in December were 2.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. Among them, the retail sales in the week from December 29th to 31st were 123,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, highlighting the year - end sprint effect [31]. - The impact of geopolitics escalated, and crude oil prices rose more significantly. As of January 9th, compared with January 2nd, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 4.2% and 3.1% respectively week - on - week, continuing to strengthen. The increasing uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation and the US military strike on Venezuela boosted oil prices [31].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the gold market witnessed a historic rally due to multiple structural factors, with international gold prices hitting record highs and cumulative gains exceeding 70%. The driving logic shifted from the traditional "real - interest - rate negative correlation" to the dual drivers of "sovereign credit risk premium" and "global monetary system fragmentation" [2]. - In 2026, the structural bull market for gold remains solid. Despite short - term callback pressure, the long - term allocation value of gold is prominent. Gold prices are likely to remain high and volatile, with higher volatility than in 2025. Opportunities for professional investors lie in cross - market arbitrage and volatility trading [3]. - The gold market's pricing paradigm is undergoing a profound transformation, from being dominated by real interest rates to being driven by fiscal sustainability, dollar - credit premium, and global monetary system reconstruction [61]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. 2025 Gold Market Panorama Review International Market Performance - The international gold price in 2025 went through three stages: "expectation correction, main - uptrend acceleration, and high - level consolidation". The core driving force shifted from traditional interest - rate games to the re - evaluation of the global credit system and strategic asset allocation [5]. - In Q1, gold played the role of a "stabilizer" in the portfolio. Despite geopolitical risks, strong US economic data led to doubts about the Fed's rate - cut timing and amplitude, causing gold price fluctuations. Gold prices rose nearly 25% in the first half of 2025 [6]. - From late April to Q3, the driving logic switched. The Fed's dovish signals and rate cuts, explosive growth in investment demand (global gold investment demand in Q3 reached 537 tons, a 47% year - on - year increase), and deepening geopolitical and credit concerns drove the main uptrend [7]. - In Q4, gold price volatility increased. Profit - taking, short - term liquidity changes, central - bank gold purchases, new market forces, and the FOMO sentiment in the precious - metal sector all contributed to the high - level fluctuations [8][9]. Domestic Market Performance - The domestic gold market in 2025 showed a pattern of "new price highs, hot investment but cold consumption, and a more in - depth market". Domestic gold prices were highly synchronized with international prices [10][11]. - In terms of structured demand, high gold prices led to a significant difference between investment and consumption demand. Gold jewelry consumption declined, while investment in gold bars, coins, and ETFs showed different trends [13][14]. - Market activity increased significantly in 2025. The trading volume of the domestic gold spot and futures markets soared, and the internationalization of the domestic gold market advanced. The Shanghai Gold Exchange launched an international - board contract in Hong Kong [16]. - The RMB exchange rate in 2025 provided a buffer for domestic gold prices. Exchange - rate fluctuations affected the performance of RMB - denominated gold and created differences between domestic and international gold price trends [17]. - The spread between domestic and international gold prices fluctuated in 2025, providing arbitrage opportunities but also increasing risks. The spread was driven by short - term supply - demand imbalances, exchange - rate expectations, capital flows, market sentiment, and policy events [20][21]. - In 2025, a new gold - tax policy was implemented, which had a profound impact on the Chinese gold market. It differentiated the VAT treatment of investment and non - investment gold, guiding the market towards a more standardized and transparent stage [23][25][26]. 2. 2025 Core Driving Factor Analysis Macro Level - The Fed's "preventative cuts" in 2025 led to a "rate - logic failure" phenomenon, indicating a fundamental shift in the core driving logic of gold prices [29]. - The market's focus shifted from interest - rate levels to the deteriorating US fiscal sustainability, leading to a "credit - anchor migration" and a change in the gold - price driving logic from "against high interest rates" to "against credit dilution" [31]. Risk Premium Level - Geopolitical events in 2025 had a complex impact on gold prices. While single events might have a short - term and pulsed impact, they also raised the gold - pricing center as a long - term "background noise" and a structural call option [34][37]. - In 2025, the gold - silver ratio decreased significantly, and the gold - copper ratio reached a historical high. These changes reflected complex macro - narratives and market - structure changes, such as inflation expectations and differences in the driving logic of different commodities [39][42]. Structural Supply - Demand Level - Global central banks became important buyers in the gold market in 2025. Their gold - buying behavior was strategic, and the future potential for central - bank gold allocation in China is large [44]. - In 2025, there was a large - scale cross - ocean flow of physical gold between the New York (COMEX) and London (LME) markets. This flow was driven by arbitrage and policy - risk avoidance. It affected the inventory distribution, liquidity structure, and price - discovery mechanism of the gold market [47][48][55]. 3. 2026 Outlook Key Time Nodes and Event Deduction in 2026 - In Q1 2026, the US debt - ceiling negotiation may cause short - term market volatility and trigger a re - evaluation of the dollar's credit. The outcome of the negotiation will affect the gold - price trend [57]. - In Q2 2026, the Fed's mid - term inflation assessment will determine the market's trading narrative. Different inflation scenarios will have different impacts on gold prices [57]. - In Q3 2026, the BRICS summit may promote the internationalization of the gold monetary role. Positive signals from the summit will provide long - term support for gold prices [59]. - In Q4 2026, the US mid - term elections will affect future fiscal policies. Different policy expectations will have different impacts on gold prices [59]. Short - Term Volatility Risks - Uncertainty in the Fed's policy pace may suppress gold prices in the short term if inflation is反复 [63]. - Crowded trading structures and changes in market sentiment may lead to a 10% - 15% technical correction in gold prices [63][64]. 4. Investment Strategy Recommendations - For most investors, it is recommended to establish a core position with physical gold or gold - related financial products through a regular - investment approach to achieve long - term asset allocation [65]. - For professional and qualified investors, futures contracts can be used as tactical tools for enhanced strategies, risk management, and capturing structural opportunities such as cross - period and cross - market arbitrage [65][66].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global asset classes in 2025, highlighting significant trends and shifts in investment dynamics, particularly focusing on the impact of geopolitical events, monetary policy changes, and emerging market conditions. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In 2025, global asset performance ranked as follows: global stocks (21.20%) > global bonds (8.17%) > RMB (4.44%) > 0% > commodities (-0.20%) > USD (-9.37%) [2] - Precious metals experienced a historic bull market, with gold and silver prices increasing by 64.58% and 147.95% respectively, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over USD credit [4][12] - The MSCI Emerging Markets index outperformed the MSCI Developed Markets index by 6.2 percentage points, indicating a favorable environment for emerging markets amid a weaker USD [6][50] Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market showed resilience, with the S&P 500 index rising over 16% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit returns [6][48] - Concerns over an "AI technology bubble" led to significant volatility among major U.S. tech stocks, with a 27.37% drop in their price-to-earnings ratios early in the year [5][21] - Fund managers expressed expectations of rising interest rates and favored high-quality earnings, with 75% anticipating a steepening yield curve in the next 12 months [4][41] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration led to market volatility, with gold prices surging by 14.8% in two weeks, contributing to the decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative [4][17] - Japan's stock index and long-term bond yields reached historical highs, with the Nikkei 225 index increasing by over 25% due to a combination of wage-inflation spirals and monetary policy normalization [7][53] - The oil market remained weak, with WTI crude oil prices fluctuating between $55 and $80 per barrel, reflecting cautious global demand and supply pressures [8][64] Group 4: Currency and Crypto Trends - The offshore RMB exchange rate fell below 7.0 against the USD, with a 9.4% decline in the USD index throughout the year, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the RMB [8][66] - The "Genius Act" led to extreme volatility in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin's price soaring from approximately $80,000 to $158,000 before experiencing a significant drop, ending the year down 6.5% [8][60]

年度报告-黄金/白银 黄金：骐骥千里，行而不辍 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | 黄金：强烈看涨 | | --- | --- | | | 白银：看涨 | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 12 月 26 日 | [★Ta2b0l2e5_S年um黄m金a强ry]势上涨气势如虹 2025 年黄金全年涨幅约 70%，国际金价从 2600 美元/盎司上涨 至最高 4500 美元/盎司以上，国内黄金价格从 630 元/克上涨至 最高 1000 元/克以上。市场交易的长线逻辑仍然是美国和全球主 要经济体的财政和货币政策处于宽松周期，对等关税则强化去 美元化叙事，黄金的投资配置需求持续增长。 ★2026 年黄金牛市周期延续 贵 金 属 目前美国经济周期逆风风险尚未消退，关税的影响不容忽视， 就业市场尚未企稳，基准情况下预计美国通胀温和回升，油价 或为通胀增添不确定性。美联储仍处于降息周期，但鹰派和鸽 派分歧空前加大，降息空间和节奏博弈增加，美联储重启 RMPs 呵护流动性，但尚未开启大规模扩表。 中期选举政绩优先，特朗普政府需要延续财政扩张以维持经济 增长和股市靓丽，减税将成为关税后的重要推进事项。美国政 府债务 ...