中国 量化与衍生品策略 2025 年 9 月 16 日 中国 A 股股票策略 中国"十五五"规划的潜在上行机会：反内卷与服务消 费 A 股市场很快就会进入政策密集的 4 季度，10 月的四中全会将讨论"十五五" （2026-2030 年）规划纲要。虽然年初迄今已被充分捕捉的主题可能聚焦于 供给侧，如人工智能、机器人和先进制造，但我们要强调的是反内卷和服务 消费机遇是额外的主题选择。就反内卷而言，它可能成为推动更多行业周期 性好转以及 2025 年下半年和 2026 年沪深 300 指数实现整体每股收益目标的 关键。可关注的主要催化剂：削减产能/产量的速度以及相关行业的价格回 升。我们按市值筛选出了部分反内卷措施涉及行业的主要个股（图 1）。在 服务消费方面，这个领域有望受益于中国政府此前提出的新五年计划期间提 高居民收入的目标。可关注的主要催化剂：具体数字指标，例如服务消费对 中国经济增长的贡献（如有）。医疗保健、金融服务和文教娱乐含有相关投 资标的，按市值、日均成交额、每股收益和净资产收益率筛选出的股票如图 2 所示。整体而言，我们仍看好沪深 300 指数截至 2026 年底的表现，原因是 居民资产配置向股 ...

Group 1: Recent IPOs on Hong Kong Stock Exchange - Two companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange from August 25 to August 31 [2] - Shuangdeng Group Co., Ltd. (6960.HK) listed on August 26, focusing on energy storage batteries, with a first-day increase of 31.29% and a market cap of approximately HKD 73 billion [3] - Jiaxin International Resources Investment Co., Ltd. (3858.HK) listed on August 28, specializing in tungsten mining, with a first-day increase of 177.84% and a market cap of approximately HKD 148 billion [3] Group 2: New Stock Offerings - One company completed its new stock offering during the week of August 25 to August 31 [4] - Aux Electric, a global provider of high-quality air conditioning solutions, went through the listing hearing [5] Group 3: Companies Submitting Listing Applications - A total of 22 companies submitted main board listing applications and one company submitted a GEM listing application from August 25 to August 31 [7] - Notable companies include: - Nazhen Technology, a global provider of optical communication solutions, submitted its application on August 25 [8] - Chengdu Guoxing Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd., a participant in China's commercial aerospace industry, submitted its application on August 25 [9] - InxMed Limited-B, a biotech company focused on cancer treatment, submitted its application on August 25 [9] Group 4: Financial Performance and Projections - Nazhen Technology projected revenues of CNY 5.043 billion, CNY 4.239 billion, and CNY 5.087 billion from 2022 to 2024, with profits of CNY 429 million, CNY 216 million, and CNY 89 million respectively [18] - Guoxing Aerospace projected revenues of CNY 177 million, CNY 508 million, and CNY 553 million from 2022 to 2024, with losses of CNY 91 million, CNY 139 million, and CNY 177 million respectively [20] - InxMed Limited-B reported no commercial sales revenue for 2023 and 2024, with losses of CNY 209 million and CNY 185 million respectively [23] Group 5: Industry Insights - The energy storage battery market is growing, with Shuangdeng Group focusing on applications in communication base stations and data centers [3] - The tungsten mining sector is highlighted by Jiaxin International, which is developing the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan [3] - The optical communication sector is represented by Nazhen Technology, which ranks fifth globally in optical module revenue [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a 10-year high, closing at 3825.76 points on August 22, raising concerns about market overheating and sustainability of the rally [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The insurance capital has been actively increasing its stake in the market, with nearly 30 instances of stake increases recorded in 2025, the highest in four years [1] - The focus of these investments is primarily on low-valuation, high-dividend sectors such as banking, public utilities, and energy [1] - The ongoing low interest rate environment and "asset shortage" are driving funds towards high-dividend stocks, particularly in the banking sector [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended for ordinary investors, balancing low-volatility, high-dividend sectors with high-growth technology sectors [2] - The Huian Zhongzheng Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index Fund is being launched, which tracks a diversified index focused on low volatility and high dividend yield [2] - The index includes stocks from 23 primary industries, mainly concentrated in banking, transportation, and coal, providing a solid equity base for investors [2] Group 3: Fund Performance - Huian Fund offers several high-performing products to help investors capitalize on market trends, including funds focused on AI and technology micro-cap stocks [3] - The Huian Growth Preferred Mixed Fund has received five-star ratings from both China Merchants Securities and Guotai Junan Securities, focusing on AI-related assets [4] - The Huian Multi-Factor Mixed Fund utilizes a quantitative investment approach combined with active equity research to adapt to current market styles and future industry trends [4]

Group 1 - A total of 170 listed companies were investigated by institutions from August 18 to August 22 [1] - Desay SV Automotive received the most attention with 228 participating institutions [1] - Crystal Optoelectronics was investigated by 226 institutions [1] Group 2 - Other companies such as Kaili Medical, Yuntianhua, and Ruoyu Chen were investigated by over 160 institutions [1] - Ice Wheel Environment was investigated 5 times, Youfa Group 4 times, and Hewei Co., Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, Jiemai Technology, and Meiyingsen 3 times each [1] - Institutions continue to focus on sectors such as industrial machinery, electronic components, and electrical parts and equipment [1]

Core Insights - Insurance capital (including insurance companies and asset management companies) conducted a total of 9,335 A-share company research visits in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 22% [1] - The sectors receiving significant attention from insurance capital include green energy, digital economy, and high-end manufacturing, aligning with national long-term development strategies and demonstrating high growth potential [1][2] Insurance Companies - Insurance companies conducted a total of 4,233 research visits in the first half of the year, with pension insurance companies showing particularly high engagement [1] - The top five pension insurance companies by research visits were Ping An Pension Insurance (319 visits), Changjiang Pension Insurance (275 visits), China Life Pension Insurance (256 visits), Taiping Pension Insurance (243 visits), and China People's Pension Insurance (175 visits) [1] Asset Management Companies - Insurance asset management institutions conducted a total of 5,102 research visits, with Taikang Asset Management leading with 557 visits, followed by Huatai Asset Management, Dajia Asset Management, China Re Asset Management, and Xinhua Asset Management, each exceeding 300 visits [2] Focused Companies - Over 80% of the 32 companies most focused on by insurance capital belong to the new productive forces sector, including high-end manufacturing, green energy, biomedicine, and digital economy [2] Industry Focus - The industries with the highest number of research visits from insurance capital in the first half of the year included industrial machinery, electronic components, electrical components and equipment, integrated circuits, and automotive parts and equipment [2][3] Investment Strategy - Insurance capital is expected to adopt a more diversified investment strategy to reduce risk exposure in a complex market environment, potentially increasing investments in emerging technologies and strategic emerging industries while also raising the proportion of investments in high-dividend, low-volatility blue-chip stocks [3]

Group 1 - Insurance capital (including insurance companies and asset management companies) conducted a total of 9,335 A-share company research visits in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 22% [1] - The sectors that received significant attention from insurance capital include green energy, digital economy, and high-end manufacturing, aligning with national long-term development strategies and showing high growth potential [1][2] - Among the insurance companies, pension insurance companies showed notable research activity, with Ping An Pension Insurance leading with 319 visits, followed by Changjiang Pension Insurance with 275 visits [1] Group 2 - The strong research activity of pension insurance companies is driven by three factors: the need for long-term value preservation, the pursuit of absolute returns and relative rankings, and the low interest rate environment pushing for equity investments [2] - Insurance asset management institutions conducted a total of 5,102 research visits, with Taikang Asset Management leading at 557 visits, and several others exceeding 300 visits [2] - Over 80% of the 32 most-researched companies by insurance capital belong to the new productive forces sector, including high-end manufacturing, green energy, biomedicine, and digital economy [2] Group 3 - The industries most focused on by insurance capital include industrial machinery, electronic components, electrical parts and equipment, integrated circuits, and automotive parts and equipment, all of which are technology-intensive and have high growth potential [3] - Insurance capital is an important institutional investor in A-shares, with a focus on supporting technological innovation and benefiting from economic transformation [3] - In the future, insurance capital is expected to adopt a more diversified investment strategy to reduce risk exposure, increasing investments in emerging technologies and strategic emerging industries while also considering high-dividend, low-volatility blue-chip stocks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company Jiao Da Tie Fa (920027.BJ) is set to be listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, focusing on the research, production, and sales of intelligent products and equipment for rail transit, along with providing specialized technical services [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jiao Da Tie Fa specializes in rail transit intelligent products and equipment, including safety monitoring products, railway information systems, new materials, intelligent equipment, surveying services, and operation and maintenance services [1]. - The company has participated in the development of the "High-speed Railway Earthquake Early Warning System" in collaboration with the China Earthquake Administration and is one of the three certified suppliers for this product [4]. - Jiao Da Tie Fa's products are widely used in various rail systems, including high-speed railways and urban transit systems, with major clients being state-owned enterprises related to railways [4]. Group 2: Financial Information - The initial offering price for Jiao Da Tie Fa is set at 8.81 yuan per share, with an issuance price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.94, significantly lower than the industry average P/E ratio of 34.96 [2]. - The company plans to allocate raised funds for several projects, including 0.60 billion yuan (35.39%) for a new production project, 0.51 billion yuan (30.21%) for a research center, 0.25 billion yuan (14.79%) for marketing and after-sales service network construction, and 0.33 billion yuan (19.60%) for working capital [2]. Group 3: Management and Control - The actual controller of Jiao Da Tie Fa is Wang Pengxiang, who holds 13.99% of the shares directly and controls a total of 41.05% of the voting rights through various agreements [5]. - Wang Pengxiang has extensive experience within the Southwest Jiaotong University system and has transitioned to full-time work at the company after obtaining leave for entrepreneurship [5]. Group 4: Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to enhance its operational strength and pursue a national development strategy as a key future goal [6]. - The median TTM P/E ratio of comparable companies is noted to be 37.7X, indicating a potential investment interest in Jiao Da Tie Fa [6].

Core Viewpoint - Hongfa Technology Co., Ltd. maintains a stable credit rating due to its strong market position and operational performance, despite facing challenges such as intense competition and funding pressures [1][3][4]. Company Overview - Hongfa Technology is the largest relay manufacturer in China, holding the top global market share in relay products, with a revenue of 127.01 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.96% increase year-on-year [8][13]. - The company operates multiple production bases domestically and has established factories in Indonesia and Germany, with ongoing construction projects requiring significant investment [11][12]. Financial Performance - The company's EBITDA for 2024 reached 36.07 billion yuan, a 9.98% increase from the previous year, indicating strong profitability [13]. - The total assets as of the end of 2024 were 60.39 billion yuan, with total liabilities of 22.81 billion yuan, resulting in an asset-liability ratio of approximately 37.8% [3][4]. Market Position - The company’s relay products account for about 90% of its total revenue, with significant demand driven by the recovery in the market and the growth of the new energy sector [8][9]. - The global market share for the company's relay products is 23.10%, with specific segments like power relays and automotive relays holding shares of 31.70% and 23.00%, respectively [12]. Operational Efficiency - The company has a production capacity of 39.74 billion relays per year, with a production output of 32.44 billion relays in 2024, achieving a capacity utilization rate of 81.63% [10][11]. - The average inventory turnover period is extended due to high overseas sales and shipping delays, with a cash conversion cycle of approximately 204.93 days [15][16]. Industry Context - The electrical equipment industry is experiencing robust growth driven by investments in clean energy and infrastructure, with significant government spending on grid upgrades and new energy projects [5][7]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly in traditional electrical equipment sectors, while leading companies are focusing on technological upgrades and product diversification to maintain market share [7][8].

Group 1 - A-shares showed mixed performance on May 22, with growth sectors like semiconductors, communications, and charging piles leading the gains [1] - The A500 Index ETF (159351) saw active trading, with a transaction amount exceeding 500 million yuan and a turnover rate over 3.5% [1] - The A500 Index ETF recorded a net inflow of over 23 million yuan on May 21, bringing its latest scale to 14.379 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Insurance funds have conducted a total of 7,677 surveys on A-share listed companies as of May 21, focusing on high-dividend and technology growth sectors [2] - Experts indicate that insurance capital is likely to continue optimizing a "barbell" asset allocation strategy, seeking long-term sustainable investment opportunities [2] - Financial analysts suggest maintaining a balanced allocation strategy, with a focus on export industry chains, self-sufficiency, and high-dividend sectors in the current market environment [2]

Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital is focusing on high dividend and technology growth sectors, with a total of 7,677 research activities conducted on A-share listed companies as of May 21 this year, indicating a strategic shift towards stable cash flow and growth potential [1][2]. Group 1: Research Activities - A total of 180 insurance institutions conducted 7,677 research activities on 1,292 A-share listed companies, showing a decrease in frequency compared to the same period last year [2]. - Among insurance asset management institutions, Taikang Asset Management and Huatai Asset Management led with 428 and 317 research activities, respectively [2]. - Pension insurance companies were the most active in research, with the top five being Ping An Pension Insurance, Changjiang Pension Insurance, China Life Pension Insurance, Taiping Pension Insurance, and China People's Pension Insurance [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Decrease in Research Frequency - The decline in research frequency is attributed to three main factors: focus on high dividend stocks in a low-interest environment, more precise investment strategies due to regulatory clarity, and established market consensus on certain technology growth sectors [3]. - Despite the decrease in research frequency, the allocation of stocks by insurance companies has increased, with the proportion of funds allocated to stocks rising to 7.56% for property insurance companies and 8.43% for life insurance companies, up by 1.2 and 1.65 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [3]. Group 3: Investment Focus - The primary focus of insurance capital research includes high dividend sectors and technology growth sectors, such as electronic components, industrial machinery, electrical components and equipment, integrated circuits, medical equipment, and regional banks [4]. - Over 500 of the researched companies are listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board or the Growth Enterprise Market, accounting for nearly 40% of the total [4]. - The core characteristics of the sectors being focused on are the stable cash flow from high dividend assets and the growth potential of high-tech assets, which are supported by government policies [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Insurance capital is expected to continue optimizing a "barbell" asset allocation strategy, balancing high dividend assets for stable returns with investments in technology innovation, green low-carbon initiatives, and health care sectors [5]. - The use of innovative tools such as long-term equity investments and REITs will be emphasized to enhance portfolio structure while strengthening ESG risk management [5]. - The industry is encouraged to maintain a long-term investment philosophy and actively seek sustainable investment opportunities [5].