丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 0821 A 股日评：上证指数横盘震荡，行业轮动 趋势延续 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今日 A 股市场早盘高开后窄幅震荡，整体量能小幅微缩，三大指数涨跌互现，农产品、油气石 化、公用事业等板块领涨。从指数表现来看，上证指数上涨 0.13%，深证成指下跌 0.06%，创 业板指下跌 0.47%，上证 50 上涨 0.53%，沪深 300 上涨 0.39%，科创 50 上涨 0.09%，中证 1000 下跌 0.71%，市场成交额约 2.46 万亿元。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 0821 A 股日评：上证指数横盘震荡，行业轮动 2] 趋势延续 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 •《0820 港股日评：三大股指低开高走，港股通轻 工制造领涨》2025-08-20 •《0819 港股日评：恒生指数高开低走，港股通纺 织服装 ...

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Group 1 - The market experienced a fluctuation around the 3400-point mark, with a decline of 0.27% for the week, while only the ChiNext index saw an increase. The leading sectors included pharmaceuticals and cyclical industries, while technology and consumer sectors lagged behind [10][14]. - The stock-bond yield spread decreased to 1.3%, which is below the +1 standard deviation threshold, indicating a decline in valuation dispersion [23]. - Market sentiment improved, with the market sentiment index rising by 15.3% to 72.1, reflecting a stronger industry rotation intensity [25]. Group 2 - The upcoming summer movie season is expected to feature a diverse supply of films, with over 60 domestic and foreign films scheduled for release, potentially boosting consumer interest [44]. - The SNEC conference highlighted the industry's consensus on "anti-involution," emphasizing the need for supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector [45]. - Several major automotive companies have committed to reducing payment terms to suppliers to no more than 60 days, which is anticipated to enhance cash flow within the supply chain [46]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes a return to AI as a main investment theme, alongside opportunities in satellite connectivity and long-term gold investments due to de-dollarization trends. The demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, with significant developments in large model iterations and application expectations [49][50]. - The report notes that the average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect increased by 209.29 billion yuan compared to the previous week, indicating a positive trend in market liquidity [35].

Market Review - The A-share and Hong Kong stock indices experienced fluctuations this week, with a general decline on Friday due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to capital outflows from risk assets. The A-share market saw increased trading volume, with most major indices closing lower, except for the ChiNext and micro-cap indices which rose. The North China 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices were the biggest losers. In terms of sectors, A-shares in non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and agriculture led the gains, while food and beverage, home appliances, and building materials lagged. Notably, rare earth permanent magnets and oil and gas extraction sectors strengthened due to external disturbances. In commodities, risk aversion drove oil prices and gold to rise significantly, with WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude futures increasing by over 13%, and COMEX gold rising by 3.3%. The US dollar index fell below 98, while the RMB exchange rate fluctuated [1][2]. Market Outlook - The upcoming 6.18 Lujiazui Forum is anticipated to be a significant event for the A-share market, with expectations of new financial policies being announced. Recent negotiations between China and the US in London have met market expectations, but geopolitical issues in the Middle East have caused short-term fluctuations in global risk appetite. The core factors affecting the A-share market remain structural issues rather than external geopolitical events. The risk premium for the CSI 300 index has dropped to its lowest level since April, indicating a need for sustained economic fundamentals or incremental policies to boost risk appetite. The forum is expected to provide insights into major financial policies that could support market sentiment and contribute to a stable upward trend in A-shares [2][3]. Economic Fundamentals - The economic fundamentals indicate persistent challenges, including insufficient domestic demand and low prices, which continue to constrain corporate profitability. In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than market expectations, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, marking an expansion in the decline for the 32nd consecutive month. The low PPI is attributed to both external factors like falling oil prices and internal issues such as insufficient effective demand and overcapacity in certain industries. To boost prices, it is essential to expand effective demand and streamline supply-demand cycles, requiring coordinated efforts across fiscal, monetary, industrial, employment, and social security policies. Historical data shows a positive correlation between PPI and the profit growth of non-financial A-share companies, suggesting that a return to rising price levels will depend on the effective implementation of policies [3]. Policy Expectations - The 6.18 Lujiazui Forum, scheduled for June 18-19, is expected to unveil several significant financial policies, with the market showing anticipation for these new regulations. The forum will feature key officials from the central bank and financial regulatory bodies, and it has historically served as a platform for announcing major policies and signaling important developments in financial regulation. This year's forum will focus on topics such as financial openness, global economic changes, and the sustainable development of capital markets, which are likely to support investor sentiment and risk appetite [2][3]. Sector Allocation - In terms of sector allocation, a balanced approach is recommended, with a focus on non-ferrous metals, military industry, AI applications (both software and hardware), and innovative pharmaceuticals. Thematic investments should also consider areas such as self-sufficiency and mergers and acquisitions [3].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a majority of indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.75% to close at 3477.00 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 1.10% to 10122.11 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 146.72 billion yuan, an increase of 19.54 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, only the oil and petrochemical, national defense and military industry, and public utilities sectors experienced gains, while the remaining sectors all declined, with beauty care, media, food and beverage, light industry manufacturing, pharmaceutical biology, and automotive sectors leading the losses [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included oil and gas extraction, natural gas, shipping selection, military information technology, aircraft carriers, gold and jewelry, deep-sea technology, commercial aerospace, military-civilian integration, large aircraft, general aviation, and diamond cultivation [1]

Group 1 - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) has seen an increase of 0.43% as of May 28, 2025, with notable gains from companies such as Zhuoran Co. (688121) up 4.25% and Lansi Heavy Industry (603169) up 3.81% [1] - The oil and gas ETF (159697) rose by 0.31%, with the latest price reported at 0.97 yuan [2] - The development project of the Kenli 10-2 oilfield group, which is the largest lithologic oilfield discovered offshore China with proven geological reserves exceeding 100 million tons, has entered the offshore operation phase [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index account for 66.65% of the index, including major companies like China National Petroleum (601857) and Sinopec (600028) [3] - Short-term pressures on international oil prices are expected due to tariff policies and OPEC+ production increases, but geopolitical risk premiums and global demand resilience may support oil price stability [2] - The oil and gas upstream capital expenditure is increasing, leading to a recovery in the oil service industry and enhanced competitiveness driven by technological advancements [2]