| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年11月21日 | | | 周敏波 | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | Wite | 削值 | 不跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | 160 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | 170 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3290 | 3300 | -10 | 240 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 309d | 3116 | -17 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3143 | 3162 | -19 | 67 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3050 | 3070 | -20 | 160 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 3280 | -10 | 3 | 元/中 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | -51 | | | ...

Report on the Steel Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market shows a weakening trend with falling prices and mixed production and inventory changes. The iron ore supply chain has a negative feedback basis, and it is not recommended to go long. For steel, with the decline in apparent demand and unsold inventory, a short - side attempt can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - **Threaded Steel**: Spot prices in different regions (East, North, South) are between 3220 - 3300 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0 - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Futures contract prices also decreased, with the 05 contract down 23 yuan, the 10 contract down 18 yuan, and the 01 contract down 20 yuan [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Spot prices in different regions are between 3220 - 3300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 - 10 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices decreased, with the 05 contract down 14 yuan, the 10 contract down 16 yuan, and the 01 contract down 9 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: Steel billet price is 2970 yuan/ton (unchanged), and slab price is 3730 yuan/ton (unchanged). The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel is 3254 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the cost of Jiangsu converter threaded steel is 3189 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. - **Profit**: East China hot - rolled coil profit is - 77 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 147 yuan/ton (unchanged); East China threaded steel profit is - 127 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; South China threaded steel profit is 43 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. Production - **Daily Average Hot - Metal Output**: It is 236.8 tons, up 2.6 tons or 1.1% [1]. - **Output of Five Major Steel Products**: It is 834.4 tons, down 22.4 tons or - 2.6%. Threaded steel output is 200.0 tons, down 8.5 tons or - 4.1%, including a 1.2 - ton or - 4.0% decrease in electric - furnace output and a 7.4 - ton or - 4.1% decrease in converter output. Hot - rolled coil output is 313.7 tons, down 4.5 tons or - 1.4% [1]. Inventory - **Inventory of Five Major Steel Products**: It is 1477.4 tons, down 26.2 tons or - 1.7%. Threaded steel inventory is 576.2 tons, down 16.4 tons or - 2.8%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 410.5 tons, with a negligible change [1]. Transaction and Demand - **Building Materials Transaction Volume**: It is 9.2 tons, down 0.4 tons or - 4.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 860.6 tons, down 6.3 tons or - 0.7%. The apparent demand for threaded steel is 216.4 tons, down 2.2 tons or - 1.0%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil is 313.6 tons, down 0.7 tons or - 0.2% [1]. Report on the Ore Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures oscillated. Although the hot - metal output rebounded this week, there is limited room for further increase. With the current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills, it is not enough to trigger a negative feedback. It is expected that iron ore will show a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders (Carol, PB, Brazilian Blend, Jinbuba) remained unchanged [5]. - **01 Contract Basis**: The basis of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with the basis of Carol powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.4%, PB powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 1.0%, Brazilian Blend powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 0.8%, and Jinbuba powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 1.0% [5]. - **Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread is 25.0 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan or 6.4%; the 9 - 1 spread is - 61.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan or - 6.0%; the 1 - 5 spread is 36.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan or 5.8% [5]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - **Spot Prices at Rizhao Port**: The spot prices of various iron ore powders (Carol, PB, Brazilian Blend, Jinbuba) remained unchanged. The price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 104.5 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars or - 0.1%, and the Platts 62% Fe is 105.2 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars or - 0.1% [5]. Supply - **Arrival Volume at 45 Ports (Weekly)**: It is 2268.9 tons, down 472.3 tons or - 17.2%. - **Global Shipment Volume (Weekly)**: It is 3516.4 tons, up 447.4 tons or 14.6%. - **National Monthly Import Volume**: It is 11632.6 tons, up 1111.6 tons or 10.6% [5]. Demand - **Daily Average Hot - Metal of 247 Steel Mills (Weekly)**: It is 236.9 tons, up 2.7 tons or 1.1%. - **Daily Average Out - Port Volume at 45 Ports (Weekly)**: It is 327.0 tons, up 6.0 tons or 1.9%. - **National Monthly Pig Iron Output**: It is 6554.9 tons, down 49.7 tons or - 0.8%. - **National Monthly Crude Steel Output**: It is 7199.7 tons, down 149.3 tons or - 2.0% [5]. Inventory Change - **Inventory at 45 Ports (Weekly)**: It is 15114.45 tons, down 15.3 tons or - 0.1%. - **Imported Ore Inventory of 247 Steel Mills (Weekly)**: It is 9076.0 tons, up 66.1 tons or 0.7%. - **Inventory Availability Days of 64 Steel Mills (Weekly)**: It is 21.0 days, unchanged [5]. Report on the Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Coke futures continued to decline, and the fourth round of price increases by mainstream coking enterprises has been fully implemented. Coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. For both coke and coking coal, a short - side oscillation is expected, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - **Coke Spot and Futures**: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipts) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract is 1639 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or - 0.6%, and the 05 contract is 1796 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.0% [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 01 basis is 7 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread is - 157 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [8]. - **Coking Profit**: The coking profit of the Steel Union (weekly) is - 54 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [8]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - **Coking Coal Spot and Futures**: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) is 1264 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or - 2.1%. The coking coal 01 contract is 1140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 1.7%, and the 05 contract is 1211 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or - 1.7% [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 01 basis is 125 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread is - 71 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [8]. - **Sample Coal Mine Profit**: The sample coal mine profit (weekly) is 569 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 4.2% [8]. Supply - **Coke Production (Weekly)**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.0 tons, down 0.6 tons or - 0.9%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.2 tons, up 0.1 tons or 0.2% [8]. - **Coking Coal Production (Weekly)**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines is 853.8 tons, up 5.4 tons or 0.6%, and the clean coal output is 435.7 tons, up 2.7 tons or 0.6% [8]. Demand - **Hot - Metal Production (Weekly)**: The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 236.9 tons, up 2.7 tons or 1.1%. - **Coke Demand (Weekly)**: Reflected in the coke production requirements, with the change of coking plant and steel mill production [8]. Inventory Change - **Coke Inventory (Weekly)**: The total coke inventory is 879.4 tons, down 7.7 tons or - 0.9%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased [8]. - **Coking Coal Inventory (Weekly)**: The clean coal inventory of some coal mines is 87.6 tons, up 7.2 tons or 9.0%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports has different changes, with an overall median increase [8]. Supply - Demand Gap - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap (Weekly)**: It is - 5.5 tons, down 1.8 tons or - 32.5% [8].

Core Insights - The A-share market is witnessing a significant number of companies announcing positive earnings forecasts for the first three quarters of 2025, with many companies expecting substantial profit increases compared to the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Company Earnings Forecasts - Xinda Co. expects a net profit of 180 million to 205 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing an increase of 2807.87% to 3211.74% compared to 6.19 million yuan in the same period last year, driven by rising product prices and operational reforms [3]. - Jiantou Energy anticipates a net profit of approximately 1.583 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 231.75%, attributed to lower coal prices and improved profitability from its power generation subsidiaries [3]. - Xianggang Technology forecasts a net profit of 94 million to 100 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 182% to 200% compared to the previous year, due to market expansion and improved operational efficiency [4]. - Zijang Enterprises expects a net profit of 897 million to 1 billion yuan, an increase of 70% to 90%, driven by innovation, green transformation, and improved production efficiency [5]. - Suihengyun A predicts a net profit of 345 million to 515 million yuan, representing a growth of 87.83% to 180.38%, influenced by the launch of solar projects and rising electricity prices [6]. Group 2: Stock Market Reactions - Several companies with positive earnings forecasts have seen significant stock price increases, such as Chuanjiang New Materials, which reported a net profit of 350 million to 380 million yuan, a growth of 2057.62% to 2242.56%, leading to a strong stock performance [8]. - Yuegui Co. also experienced a stock surge, with an expected net profit of 420 million to 470 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 86.87% to 109.11%, driven by cost reduction and rising product prices [9]. - Chenguang Biological reported a net profit of 278 million to 314 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 344.05% to 401.55%, resulting in a notable rise in its stock price [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows a situation of poor credit data and a month - on - month increase in steel inventory. The iron ore market has a falling market sentiment and is oscillating. The coking coal and coke market has the sixth round of coke price increase implemented and is also oscillating. The thermal coal market has high daily consumption and rising coal prices [1][3][5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures contracts declined slightly, and the spot market had average transactions with 91,282 tons of building materials sold nationwide. July's financial data showed negative private - sector credit growth and government financing boosting social financing. Steel inventory increased and production and sales declined according to Ganggu data [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials production and sales are in the off - season with a slight increase in inventory. Plate is affected by Tangshan's production restrictions with marginal improvement in sentiment. Before the parade, production restrictions on steel mills are frequent, and there is a possibility of marginal improvement in the fundamentals. However, it's difficult for steel mills to cut production autonomously due to good profits. Raw material prices are firm, and the steel fundamentals have few contradictions with strong support on the futures market. Future focus is on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated, and the prices of mainstream spot varieties rose slightly. Traders' quotation enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 842,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71%. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.57 million tons (8 transactions), a month - on - month increase of 383.08% (with 1.38 million tons from mines) [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments declined seasonally in July, but with rising prices, supply has strong support. Pig iron production remains high, steel profits are strong, and steel mills' production enthusiasm is high. There are no large - scale overhauls in the short term, so iron ore consumption and demand are resilient. In the long run, the iron ore supply - demand is still slightly loose. Future focus is on pig iron production and floating cargo changes [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The prices of black building materials commodities on the futures market declined collectively, and the main contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated downward. The exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal. For imported Mongolian coal, customs clearance restrictions remain in place, and port traders are reluctant to sell due to high - level fluctuations in the futures market. The sixth round of coke price increase was implemented, 523 sample mines had a slight increase in clean coal inventory, and raw coal inventory reduction slowed down with a slight decline in production [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic mine supply recovery is slow, and imported coal customs clearance is restricted, so the overall supply is tight. Downstream coking enterprises have slowed down their procurement and mainly purchase for rigid demand. For coke, affected by rising coking coal prices, some coking enterprises are showing signs of losses. Coupled with Shandong's environmental protection production restrictions on September 3, coke supply is tightening. Although steel mills' profits have narrowed and pig iron production has declined, it is still at a high level in the same period, supporting demand. In the short term, coking coal and coke futures are restricted by the supply side. Future focus is on supply recovery progress, subsequent coke price increases, and the sustainability of high - level pig iron production [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The coking coal strategy is to oscillate, the coke strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the main production areas continued to be strong. Some open - pit mines have not resumed production, and after rainfall, some chemical plants and surrounding power plants are actively replenishing stocks. Large - scale purchasers at stations have increased their demand, and pit - mouth coal prices remain firm. At ports, the inventory at northern ports continues to decline, shipping is seriously inverted, high - quality resources are relatively scarce, and traders are strongly holding prices with quotes more likely to rise than fall. For imported coal, with rising temperatures, the port arrival cost has increased, and imported coal quotes continue to rise [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Safety inspections in production areas are stricter, some over - producing mines are shut down for rectification, and some previously shut - down mines are under re - inspection. The overall supply is still tight. Coal daily consumption remains high, inventory continues to decline, and the coal fundamentals are good. Coal prices are expected to be strong in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy content provided.