| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年11月21日 | | | 周敏波 | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | Wite | 削值 | 不跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | 160 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | 170 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3290 | 3300 | -10 | 240 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 309d | 3116 | -17 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3143 | 3162 | -19 | 67 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3050 | 3070 | -20 | 160 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 3280 | -10 | 3 | 元/中 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | -51 | | | ...

| 矿石产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 务资格:证监许可 【2011 1292号 2025年11月20日 | | | | 徐乙丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 813.2 | 813.2 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 843.6 | 843.6 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 855.6 | 855.6 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 840.3 | 840.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 01合约基差:卡粉 | 21.7 | 21.2 | 0.5 | 2.4% | | | 01合约基差:PB粉 | 52.1 | 51.6 | 0.5 | 1.0% | 元/吨 | | 01合约基差:巴混粉 | 64.1 | 63.6 | 0.5 | 0.8% | | | 01合约基差:金布巴粉 | 48.8 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are influenced by weak demand and expected contraction in coal supply. In the short - term, prices are expected to rise due to the impact of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking. Consider short - term long positions, with resistance levels at 3350 yuan for rebar and 3500 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is in a tight - balanced state. Unilateral trading should be viewed with a bullish bias, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract and short on hot - rolled coils in arbitrage [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at a reference range of 1650 - 1800 and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at a reference range of 1070 - 1300 and also conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [6] Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China increased by 30 yuan, 20 yuan, and 40 yuan respectively [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased by 20 yuan, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 23 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 9 yuan, 9 yuan, and 19 yuan respectively [1] Mills - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decline of 0.4% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, a rise of 0.9%. The rebar inventory increased by 13.9 to 653.9, a rise of 2.2% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.1 to 11.8, a rise of 1.0%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 843.3, a rise of 1.9% [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of various iron ore types in Rizhao Port increased slightly. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 10 yuan to 916 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore types decreased significantly [4] Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 816.9 to 3573.1, a rise of 29.6%, while the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3, a decline of 3.5% [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 337.3, a rise of 4.2% [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41, a decline of 0.3%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1, a rise of 0.6% [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 2.8% and 2.5% respectively. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [6] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 4.5% and 3.5% respectively. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 12, a decline of 2.9% [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 43.8 to 861.1, a rise of 5.4% [6] Demand - The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8% [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, a rise of 1.2%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 793.7, a decline of 0.3% [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased by 2.4 to - 3.1, a decline of 75.4% [6]

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Current building materials are reducing production and inventory, while plates are reducing production and increasing inventory. The demand for plates is showing a clear downward trend, and the difference lies in the decline range of demand. - With the suspension of domestic subsidies and the reduction of internal competition in the auto industry, the later - stage demand expectation remains weak. - This month, iron ore shipments are surging, and iron ore inventory is approaching the inflection point of inventory accumulation, which is unfavorable for the rebound of ferrous metals. - Considering the weakening expectation of actual demand, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds, and hold short positions for now [1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, there is obvious pressure on the upside of iron ore prices, mainly due to the high - level decline of hot metal, supply increase, and administrative reduction expectations, but the short - term decline of hot metal is limited. - In the medium - to - long term, the bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. With the risk of weakening demand in the off - season, the iron ore price range may move down, with the reference range of 720 - 670 [4]. Coke - The spot fundamentals of coke are still relatively loose, and the expectation of a bottom - up rebound is difficult to be verified in the short term. The spot price has no rebound drive, and the futures price has fallen again. - There is an expectation of 1 - 2 more rounds of price cuts in the future. It is recommended to adopt a short - term high - selling strategy for the 2509 contract, and pay attention to risks due to increased volatility later [6]. Coking Coal - The expectation of a bottom - up rebound may be disproven, and the spot fundamentals lack a rebound drive. After the basis is repaired, the futures market will face hedging pressure again. - It is recommended to adopt a short - term high - selling strategy for the 2509 contract, and pay attention to risks due to increased volatility later [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has begun to increase recently. The cost side should pay attention to the change of coal prices, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. Ferromanganese - The supply pressure of ferromanganese still exists. The cost side should pay attention to the change of coke prices, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Most steel prices, including those of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, have decreased. For example, the rebar spot price in East China decreased from 3110 to 3090 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 2890 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The profits of most steel products have increased, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 13 to 160 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal output remained unchanged at 241.8. The output of five major steel products decreased by 21.5 to 858.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.4%. The rebar output decreased by 10.9 to 207.6 million tons, a decrease of 5.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 9.2 to 1354.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The rebar inventory decreased by 12.4 to 558.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%, while the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.8 to 345.4 million tons, an increase of 1.4% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.5 to 8.9, a decrease of 14.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.1 to 868.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc., have decreased. The basis of the 09 contract for different varieties has also decreased significantly, for example, the 09 contract basis of PB fines decreased from 112.6 to 59.4 [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 72.8 to 2609.3 million tons, an increase of 2.9%. The global shipment volume increased by 79.4 to 3510.4 million tons, an increase of 2.3%. The national monthly import volume increased by 917.5 to 10313.8 million tons, an increase of 9.8% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume decreased by 12.7 to 314.0 million tons, a decrease of 3.9%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 271.1 to 7258.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.6%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 682.2 to 8601.9 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 20.3 to 13846.94 million tons, an increase of 0.1%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke remained unchanged. The 09 and 01 contracts of coke decreased by 28 and 26 respectively, with a decline of 2.0% and 1.9% respectively [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5 to 65.0 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.14% [6]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 million tons [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 15.3 to 971.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.6%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased to varying degrees [6]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal warehouse - receipts remained unchanged. The 09 and 01 contracts of coking coal decreased by 17 and 14 respectively, with a decline of 2.2% and 1.8% respectively [6]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 6.7 to 866.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The cleaned coal output decreased by 4.3 to 440.7 million tons, a decrease of 1.0% [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5 to 65.0 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1% [6]. Inventory - The cleaned coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 12.5 to 284.0 million tons, an increase of 4.64%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 20.8 to 798.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.1 to 774.0 million tons, an increase of 0.4% [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions and contracts have decreased. For example, the 72% FeSi ferrosilicon spot price in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5100 to 5050 yuan/ton [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions have changed slightly. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased from - 53.0 to - 426.5 [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased by 1.4 to 32.8, a decrease of 4.4%. The ferromanganese weekly output increased by 0.2 to 17.3 million tons, an increase of 0.9% [7]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 million tons, a decrease of 3.5%. The ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.4 to 12.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.9% [7]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.2 to 7.0 million tons, an increase of 3.3%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese increased by 0.9 to 19 million tons, an increase of 5.0% [7].