1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are mentioned in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The black metal market shows narrow - range fluctuations with low volatility. The short - term export expectation of steel is weak due to the US - Iran conflict, and the upcoming Two Sessions may affect the demand - side expectation. Although steel valuation is not high, the upward demand expectation is not strong. Pay attention to the support levels of 3020 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coil [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The short - term supply pressure still suppresses the iron ore price, and concerns about finished product exports may cause disturbances. The iron ore price may fluctuate widely in the range of 730 - 770. Pay attention to the recovery of terminal demand and the policies of the Two Sessions [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the short - term price is stable. The US - Iran conflict drives up energy commodities, leading to a rebound in coal - coke futures. It is recommended to view it with caution, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800. For coking coal, it is also recommended to view it as fluctuating upward with caution, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150 [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the short - term supply is tight. The price may face pressure when it rebounds to the export cost. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. For silicomanganese, the short - term price driver comes from manganese ore, and it is recommended to consider the 5 - 9 positive spread [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts show different changes. For example, the rebar 05 contract increased by 7 yuan/ton, while the hot - rolled coil 01 contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while the cost of some steel products increased, and the profit of some products decreased. For example, the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase), and the output of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8 (-1.0% decrease). The inventory of five major steel products increased by 134.3 to 1846.1 (7.8% increase) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8 to 5.2 (17.4% increase), and the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 29.0 to 564.7 (5.4% increase). However, the apparent demand of rebar decreased by 7.6 to 33.6 (-18.5% decrease) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, with a decline of about 0.1%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.5 (-2.4% decrease), and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.5 to 13.5 (12.5% increase) [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 19.8 to 3340.7 (0.6% increase) on a weekly basis, and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9 (-0.3% decrease). The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase), and the 45 - port daily average desilting volume decreased by 52.7 to 298.5 (-15.0% decrease) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96 (0.9% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1 (-15.1% decrease) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices increased, such as the coke 05 contract increasing by 42 to 1694 (2.5% increase). Coking coal futures prices also increased, like the coking coal 05 contract increasing by 33 to 1127 (3.0% increase) [7]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 64.3 (0.9% increase), and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase) [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 7.9 to 980.0 (-0.8% decrease), and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 80.2 to 1079.1 (-7.4% decrease) [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The ferrosilicon main - contract closing price increased by 22 to 5786 (0.44% increase), and the silicomanganese main - contract closing price increased. Some spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also changed slightly [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 17 to 6036.6 (0.3% increase), and the production profit of some regions changed. The manganese ore price showed different trends, with the South African semi - carbonate showing a relatively strong performance [8]. Supply and Demand - The weekly ferrosilicon output increased by 0.9 to 9.8 (0.6% increase), and the weekly silicomanganese product increased by 0.4 to 19.7 (1.8% increase). The iron ore demand increased with the increase in pig iron output [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.1 to 7.0 (-1.6% decrease), and the inventory of 63 sample silicomanganese enterprises increased by 0.4 to 39.8 (0.9% increase) [8].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The steel market shows a weak trend. The conflict between the US and Iran affects the passage of the Hormuz Strait, reducing the expected steel export volume and suppressing the market performance. The upcoming Two Sessions may also interfere with the demand - side expectations. Although the steel valuation is not high, the supply - demand outlook is not strong. Attention should be paid to the support levels of 3,020 yuan/ton for rebar and 3,200 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts show various changes. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,190 yuan/ton, 3,120 yuan/ton, and 3,240 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 10 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets remains unchanged at 2,910 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increases by 2 yuan/ton to 3,233 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increases by 10 yuan/ton to 33 yuan/ton [1]. - **Output**: The daily average pig iron output increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase). The output of five major steel products decreases by 8.0 to 796.8 (- 1.0% decrease), and the rebar output decreases by 5.3 to 165.1 (- 3.1% decrease) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increases by 134.3 to 1,846.1 (7.8% increase). The rebar inventory increases by 84.6 to 800.6 (11.8% increase), and the hot - rolled coil inventory increases by 18.3 to 452.2 (4.2% increase) [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreases by 0.6 to 2.2 (- 20.6% decrease), and the apparent demand for five major steel products increases by 29.0 to 564.7 (5.4% increase). The apparent rebar demand decreases by 7.6 to 33.6 (- 18.5% decrease), and the apparent hot - rolled coil demand increases by 21.6 to 268.4 (8.8% increase) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The iron ore market is under pressure in the short term, but there is also resistance to further price decline. The conflict between the US and Iran affects shipping and freight costs. The supply pressure persists, and the demand recovery needs to be verified. The inventory situation shows that the port inventory increases slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreases significantly. Short - term ore prices may fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to consider short - selling after a rebound [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost of various iron ore powders shows different changes. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of lower - grade powder increases by 6.5 to 854.4 (0.8% increase). The 05 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changes, with the 05 - contract basis of PB powder decreasing by 2.9 to 51.7 (- 5.3% decrease) [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume in the week decreases by 5.5 to 2,146.9 (- 0.3% decrease), and the national monthly import volume increases by 19.8 to 3,340.7 (0.6% increase) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills in the week increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase), and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume in the week decreases by 52.7 to 298.5 (- 15.0% decrease) [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increases by 145.6 to 17,091.96 (0.9% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills in the week decreases by 1,618.8 to 9,085.1 (- 15.1% decrease) [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Coke**: The coke futures rebounded slightly. The supply - side profit is restored to near the break - even point, and the production increases slightly. The demand - side replenishment demand is weak. The overall inventory is slightly decreased, and the supply - demand is basically balanced in the short term. It is advisable to view the market as oscillatory, with a reference range of 1,550 - 1,750 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures showed an oscillatory trend. The spot auction prices in Shanxi decreased. The supply - side production will gradually increase after the Spring Festival, and the import coal inventory accumulates. The demand - side production increases slightly, and the replenishment demand is limited after the Spring Festival. The overall inventory decreases seasonally. It is advisable to view the market as oscillatory, with a reference range of 1,000 - 1,150 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory Coke - **Coke - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remain unchanged. The coke 05 - contract price increases by 17 to 1,652 (1.0% increase) [7]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increases by 0.6 to 64.3 (0.9% increase), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreases by 0.1 to 47.1 (- 0.3% decrease) [7]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase) [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreases by 7.9 to 980.0 (- 0.8% decrease), the inventory of all - sample coking plants increases by 7.5 to 107.8 (7.5% increase), and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreases by 13.5 to 675.1 (- 2.0% decrease) [7]. - **Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap decreases by 0.9 to - 1.6 (- 59.4% decrease) [7]. Coking Coal - **Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains unchanged, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increases by 4 to 1,152 (0.3% increase). The coking coal 05 - contract price remains unchanged, and the 09 - contract price decreases by 6 to 1,189 (0.5% decrease) [7]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreases by 144.1 to 840.4 (- 17.1% decrease), and the clean coal output decreases by 74.4 to 423.9 (- 17.54% decrease) [7]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coke production. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increases by 0.6 to 63.7 (0.9% increase), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreases by 0.1 to 47.2 (- 0.34% decrease) [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreases by 3.1 to 124.1 (- 2.5% decrease), the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreases by 80.2 to 1,079.1 (- 7.4% decrease), and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreases by 27.9 to 792.5 (- 3.4% decrease) [7]. Group 4: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The supply increases slightly after the Spring Festival, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, and the total inventory is moderately low. The cost of blue charcoal decreases slightly, and the production profit in Ningxia is the best. The short - term supply - demand is tight, and the price may face pressure near the export cost. It is advisable to wait and see due to frequent overseas macro - changes and the approaching Two Sessions [8]. - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese futures continued to rise in a "V" - shaped trend. The supply increases slightly, and the production volume is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The demand is expected to improve marginally, and the inventory accumulates significantly last week. The cost of manganese ore is firm, and the supply - demand situation restricts the price increase space. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the cost pressure in Guizhou and the 5 - 9 spread [8]. Summary by Directory Ferrosilicon - **Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increases by 38 to 5,764. The spot - prices in different regions increase to varying degrees, such as the 72%FeSi spot price in Inner Mongolia increasing by 50 to 5,330 [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increases by 17.2 to 6,019.6 (0.3% increase), and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increases by 32.8 to - 269.6 (- 10.8% increase) [8]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferrosilicon production is 98 (unchanged), and the operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises decreases by 0.1% to 28.3 [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Mysteel) is 18 (unchanged), and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase) [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increases by 0.4 to 7.2 (0.94% increase), and the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory is 18.7 days [8]. Ferromanganese - **Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increases by 56 to 6,026. The spot - prices in different regions increase to varying degrees, such as the FeMn65Si17 spot price in Inner Mongolia increasing by 50 to 5,750 [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged at 5,500. The manganese ore supply shows that the weekly manganese ore shipping volume decreases by 22.8 to 77.8 (- 22.7% decrease) [8]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferromanganese production increases by 0.4 to 19.7 (1.8% increase) [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferromanganese demand (calculated by Mysteel) decreases by 0.1 to 11.0 (- 1.3% decrease) [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increases by 0.3 to 39.8 (0.94% increase), and the average available days of ferromanganese inventory is 2.0 days [8].

产业期现日报 厅 广发期货 投资次拍业名资格:证监许可 【2011】1202号 2026年1月27日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 420300 | 403250 | 17050 | 4.23% | | | SMM 1#锡开贴水 | -100 | 0 | -100 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 420800 | 403750 | 17050 | 4.22% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -245.00 | -189.00 | -56.00 | -29.63% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | 进口盈亏 | -6632.02 | -7675.70 | 1043.68 | 13.60% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.98 | 7.96 | - | - | | | 月间价差 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel supply and demand are both weak, with controllable real - inventory pressure and limited industrial contradictions. Prices follow raw material fluctuations, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore faces a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by steel mill restocking expectations and hot - metal复产 on the downside. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, some coke enterprises resist further cuts and initiate price increases, which are expected to be implemented. It is recommended to go long on the dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Driven by pre - Spring Festival restocking demand, it is recommended to go long on the dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - Short - term ferrosilicon supply - demand contradictions are limited, and there is a lack of upward drivers at the industrial level. After a pullback, one can try to go long on the dips, with a bottom support reference of around 5500 [7]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese is in a situation of weak supply and demand. High inventory suppresses prices in the short term, but manganese ore provides support. It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a local support reference of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have varying degrees of increase or decrease. The spread between the May contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened to 161 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remain unchanged. The costs of different types of steel production have different changes, and the profits of different regions and varieties also vary [1]. Supply - The daily average hot - metal output has decreased by 0.7%, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly by 0.1%. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has different trends [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products has decreased by 0.6%. The inventory of rebar remains unchanged, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 1.6% [1]. Demand - The demand has decreased month - on - month, mainly due to the seasonal weakening of rebar demand. The apparent demand for rebar remains low, while that for hot - rolled coils has recovered month - on - month, better than the seasonal average in previous years [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and 05 - contract basis of various iron ore varieties have slightly decreased. The 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread have changed to different extents [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume has increased by 5.9%, the global shipment volume has decreased by 1.0%, and the national monthly import volume has increased by 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.6%, the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume has decreased by 1.0%, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output have decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory has increased by 1.7%, the 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased by 3.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills have increased by 10.5% [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal spot and futures prices have decreased to different extents. The basis and spreads of different contracts have also changed [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants has decreased by 0.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.3% [6]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.6% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory has increased by 0.5%, and the coking coal inventory of different entities has different trends [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap has increased by 188.0% [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot prices have decreased. The spreads between different regions and contracts have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in different regions have slightly changed, and the production profits have decreased. The prices of manganese ore raw materials remain stable [7]. Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon has decreased slightly, and the production enterprises' operating rate has decreased by 1.4% [7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon has decreased, and the iron - making - related demand indicators have also decreased [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises has decreased by 7.5%, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon have decreased [7]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - Silicomanganese futures and spot prices have decreased, and the spreads between different regions and contracts have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of silicomanganese in different regions remain stable, and the manganese ore prices are strong [7]. Supply - The weekly output of silicomanganese remains unchanged, and the operating rate has decreased by 0.1% [7]. Demand - The demand for silicomanganese has decreased, and the iron - making - related demand indicators have also decreased [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample silicomanganese enterprises has decreased by 2.5%, and the average available days of silicomanganese inventory have decreased [7].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. For rebar, focus on the support at the 3000 level, and for hot - rolled coils, focus on the support at the 3240 level. Operate by closing short positions and temporarily holding a wait - and - see attitude on single - side trades [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and futures contract prices also declined. Rebar 01 contract decreased by 20 yuan, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 9 yuan [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 30 yuan, and the slab price remained unchanged. Profits in different regions of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 5 yuan [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The output of five major steel products increased by 15.5 tons to 849.9 tons, an increase of 1.9%. Rebar production increased by 8 tons to 208 tons, an increase of 4% [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 44.2 tons to 1433.1 tons, a decrease of 3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 22.8 tons to 553.3 tons, a decrease of 4% [1] - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 8.5, a decrease of 8.5%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 33.6 tons to 894.2 tons, an increase of 3.9%. The apparent demand of rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Iron ore is expected to show a high - level oscillation trend, and single - side trades should be on hold [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly, such as the PB powder warehouse - receipt cost decreasing by 3.3 yuan, a decrease of 0.4%. The 01 contract basis of some varieties also changed slightly [4] - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 472 tons to 2269 tons, a decrease of 17.2%, and the global shipping volume increased by 447.4 tons to 3516.4 tons, an increase of 14.6% [4] - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The daily average ore - removal volume at 45 ports increased by 2.9 tons to 329.9 tons, an increase of 0.9% [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 120.8 tons to 15054.65 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 75 tons to 9001 tons, a decrease of 0.8% [4] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - For coke, it is regarded as oscillating bearishly in the range of 1550 - 1700, and temporarily on hold. For coking coal, it is regarded as oscillating bearishly in the range of 1050 - 1200, and temporarily on hold [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs (Coke) - **Coke - related Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures prices decreased, such as the 01 contract decreasing by 6 yuan, a decrease of 0.3%. The fourth - round price increase of mainstream coke enterprises was fully implemented [6] - **Production**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 tons to 63 tons, a decrease of 0.5% [6] - **Demand**: The pig iron output decreased, and the demand for coke was suppressed to some extent [6] - **Inventory Changes**: Coking plants, ports, and steel mills all had a slight reduction in inventory, and the overall inventory was slightly lower in the middle level [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs (Coking Coal) - **Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads**: Coking coal futures prices decreased, such as the 01 contract decreasing by 26 yuan, a decrease of 2.3%. Some coking coal prices decreased, such as the Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) decreasing by 41 yuan, a decrease of 3.2% [6] - **Supply**: Some shut - down coal mines in Shanxi began to resume production, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance increased significantly in November [6] - **Demand**: The coking plant's production decreased slightly, and the replenishment demand weakened [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The overall inventory of coking coal was slightly lower in the middle level, with coal - washing plants, ports, and coking plants reducing inventory [6]

Report on the Steel Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market shows a weakening trend with falling prices and mixed production and inventory changes. The iron ore supply chain has a negative feedback basis, and it is not recommended to go long. For steel, with the decline in apparent demand and unsold inventory, a short - side attempt can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - **Threaded Steel**: Spot prices in different regions (East, North, South) are between 3220 - 3300 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0 - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Futures contract prices also decreased, with the 05 contract down 23 yuan, the 10 contract down 18 yuan, and the 01 contract down 20 yuan [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Spot prices in different regions are between 3220 - 3300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 - 10 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices decreased, with the 05 contract down 14 yuan, the 10 contract down 16 yuan, and the 01 contract down 9 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: Steel billet price is 2970 yuan/ton (unchanged), and slab price is 3730 yuan/ton (unchanged). The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel is 3254 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the cost of Jiangsu converter threaded steel is 3189 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. - **Profit**: East China hot - rolled coil profit is - 77 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 147 yuan/ton (unchanged); East China threaded steel profit is - 127 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; South China threaded steel profit is 43 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. Production - **Daily Average Hot - Metal Output**: It is 236.8 tons, up 2.6 tons or 1.1% [1]. - **Output of Five Major Steel Products**: It is 834.4 tons, down 22.4 tons or - 2.6%. Threaded steel output is 200.0 tons, down 8.5 tons or - 4.1%, including a 1.2 - ton or - 4.0% decrease in electric - furnace output and a 7.4 - ton or - 4.1% decrease in converter output. Hot - rolled coil output is 313.7 tons, down 4.5 tons or - 1.4% [1]. Inventory - **Inventory of Five Major Steel Products**: It is 1477.4 tons, down 26.2 tons or - 1.7%. Threaded steel inventory is 576.2 tons, down 16.4 tons or - 2.8%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 410.5 tons, with a negligible change [1]. Transaction and Demand - **Building Materials Transaction Volume**: It is 9.2 tons, down 0.4 tons or - 4.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 860.6 tons, down 6.3 tons or - 0.7%. The apparent demand for threaded steel is 216.4 tons, down 2.2 tons or - 1.0%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil is 313.6 tons, down 0.7 tons or - 0.2% [1]. Report on the Ore Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures oscillated. Although the hot - metal output rebounded this week, there is limited room for further increase. With the current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills, it is not enough to trigger a negative feedback. It is expected that iron ore will show a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders (Carol, PB, Brazilian Blend, Jinbuba) remained unchanged [5]. - **01 Contract Basis**: The basis of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with the basis of Carol powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.4%, PB powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 1.0%, Brazilian Blend powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 0.8%, and Jinbuba powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 1.0% [5]. - **Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread is 25.0 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan or 6.4%; the 9 - 1 spread is - 61.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan or - 6.0%; the 1 - 5 spread is 36.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan or 5.8% [5]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - **Spot Prices at Rizhao Port**: The spot prices of various iron ore powders (Carol, PB, Brazilian Blend, Jinbuba) remained unchanged. The price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 104.5 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars or - 0.1%, and the Platts 62% Fe is 105.2 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars or - 0.1% [5]. Supply - **Arrival Volume at 45 Ports (Weekly)**: It is 2268.9 tons, down 472.3 tons or - 17.2%. - **Global Shipment Volume (Weekly)**: It is 3516.4 tons, up 447.4 tons or 14.6%. - **National Monthly Import Volume**: It is 11632.6 tons, up 1111.6 tons or 10.6% [5]. Demand - **Daily Average Hot - Metal of 247 Steel Mills (Weekly)**: It is 236.9 tons, up 2.7 tons or 1.1%. - **Daily Average Out - Port Volume at 45 Ports (Weekly)**: It is 327.0 tons, up 6.0 tons or 1.9%. - **National Monthly Pig Iron Output**: It is 6554.9 tons, down 49.7 tons or - 0.8%. - **National Monthly Crude Steel Output**: It is 7199.7 tons, down 149.3 tons or - 2.0% [5]. Inventory Change - **Inventory at 45 Ports (Weekly)**: It is 15114.45 tons, down 15.3 tons or - 0.1%. - **Imported Ore Inventory of 247 Steel Mills (Weekly)**: It is 9076.0 tons, up 66.1 tons or 0.7%. - **Inventory Availability Days of 64 Steel Mills (Weekly)**: It is 21.0 days, unchanged [5]. Report on the Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Coke futures continued to decline, and the fourth round of price increases by mainstream coking enterprises has been fully implemented. Coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. For both coke and coking coal, a short - side oscillation is expected, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - **Coke Spot and Futures**: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipts) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract is 1639 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or - 0.6%, and the 05 contract is 1796 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.0% [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 01 basis is 7 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread is - 157 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [8]. - **Coking Profit**: The coking profit of the Steel Union (weekly) is - 54 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [8]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - **Coking Coal Spot and Futures**: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) is 1264 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or - 2.1%. The coking coal 01 contract is 1140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 1.7%, and the 05 contract is 1211 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or - 1.7% [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 01 basis is 125 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread is - 71 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [8]. - **Sample Coal Mine Profit**: The sample coal mine profit (weekly) is 569 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 4.2% [8]. Supply - **Coke Production (Weekly)**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.0 tons, down 0.6 tons or - 0.9%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.2 tons, up 0.1 tons or 0.2% [8]. - **Coking Coal Production (Weekly)**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines is 853.8 tons, up 5.4 tons or 0.6%, and the clean coal output is 435.7 tons, up 2.7 tons or 0.6% [8]. Demand - **Hot - Metal Production (Weekly)**: The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 236.9 tons, up 2.7 tons or 1.1%. - **Coke Demand (Weekly)**: Reflected in the coke production requirements, with the change of coking plant and steel mill production [8]. Inventory Change - **Coke Inventory (Weekly)**: The total coke inventory is 879.4 tons, down 7.7 tons or - 0.9%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased [8]. - **Coking Coal Inventory (Weekly)**: The clean coal inventory of some coal mines is 87.6 tons, up 7.2 tons or 9.0%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports has different changes, with an overall median increase [8]. Supply - Demand Gap - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap (Weekly)**: It is - 5.5 tons, down 1.8 tons or - 32.5% [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are influenced by weak demand and expected contraction in coal supply. In the short - term, prices are expected to rise due to the impact of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking. Consider short - term long positions, with resistance levels at 3350 yuan for rebar and 3500 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is in a tight - balanced state. Unilateral trading should be viewed with a bullish bias, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract and short on hot - rolled coils in arbitrage [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at a reference range of 1650 - 1800 and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at a reference range of 1070 - 1300 and also conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [6] Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China increased by 30 yuan, 20 yuan, and 40 yuan respectively [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased by 20 yuan, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 23 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 9 yuan, 9 yuan, and 19 yuan respectively [1] Mills - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decline of 0.4% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, a rise of 0.9%. The rebar inventory increased by 13.9 to 653.9, a rise of 2.2% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.1 to 11.8, a rise of 1.0%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 843.3, a rise of 1.9% [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of various iron ore types in Rizhao Port increased slightly. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 10 yuan to 916 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore types decreased significantly [4] Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 816.9 to 3573.1, a rise of 29.6%, while the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3, a decline of 3.5% [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 337.3, a rise of 4.2% [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41, a decline of 0.3%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1, a rise of 0.6% [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 2.8% and 2.5% respectively. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [6] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 4.5% and 3.5% respectively. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 12, a decline of 2.9% [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 43.8 to 861.1, a rise of 5.4% [6] Demand - The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8% [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, a rise of 1.2%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 793.7, a decline of 0.3% [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased by 2.4 to - 3.1, a decline of 75.4% [6]

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Current building materials are reducing production and inventory, while plates are reducing production and increasing inventory. The demand for plates is showing a clear downward trend, and the difference lies in the decline range of demand. - With the suspension of domestic subsidies and the reduction of internal competition in the auto industry, the later - stage demand expectation remains weak. - This month, iron ore shipments are surging, and iron ore inventory is approaching the inflection point of inventory accumulation, which is unfavorable for the rebound of ferrous metals. - Considering the weakening expectation of actual demand, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds, and hold short positions for now [1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, there is obvious pressure on the upside of iron ore prices, mainly due to the high - level decline of hot metal, supply increase, and administrative reduction expectations, but the short - term decline of hot metal is limited. - In the medium - to - long term, the bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. With the risk of weakening demand in the off - season, the iron ore price range may move down, with the reference range of 720 - 670 [4]. Coke - The spot fundamentals of coke are still relatively loose, and the expectation of a bottom - up rebound is difficult to be verified in the short term. The spot price has no rebound drive, and the futures price has fallen again. - There is an expectation of 1 - 2 more rounds of price cuts in the future. It is recommended to adopt a short - term high - selling strategy for the 2509 contract, and pay attention to risks due to increased volatility later [6]. Coking Coal - The expectation of a bottom - up rebound may be disproven, and the spot fundamentals lack a rebound drive. After the basis is repaired, the futures market will face hedging pressure again. - It is recommended to adopt a short - term high - selling strategy for the 2509 contract, and pay attention to risks due to increased volatility later [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has begun to increase recently. The cost side should pay attention to the change of coal prices, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. Ferromanganese - The supply pressure of ferromanganese still exists. The cost side should pay attention to the change of coke prices, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Most steel prices, including those of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, have decreased. For example, the rebar spot price in East China decreased from 3110 to 3090 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 2890 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The profits of most steel products have increased, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 13 to 160 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal output remained unchanged at 241.8. The output of five major steel products decreased by 21.5 to 858.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.4%. The rebar output decreased by 10.9 to 207.6 million tons, a decrease of 5.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 9.2 to 1354.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The rebar inventory decreased by 12.4 to 558.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%, while the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.8 to 345.4 million tons, an increase of 1.4% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.5 to 8.9, a decrease of 14.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.1 to 868.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc., have decreased. The basis of the 09 contract for different varieties has also decreased significantly, for example, the 09 contract basis of PB fines decreased from 112.6 to 59.4 [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 72.8 to 2609.3 million tons, an increase of 2.9%. The global shipment volume increased by 79.4 to 3510.4 million tons, an increase of 2.3%. The national monthly import volume increased by 917.5 to 10313.8 million tons, an increase of 9.8% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume decreased by 12.7 to 314.0 million tons, a decrease of 3.9%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 271.1 to 7258.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.6%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 682.2 to 8601.9 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 20.3 to 13846.94 million tons, an increase of 0.1%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke remained unchanged. The 09 and 01 contracts of coke decreased by 28 and 26 respectively, with a decline of 2.0% and 1.9% respectively [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5 to 65.0 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.14% [6]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 million tons [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 15.3 to 971.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.6%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased to varying degrees [6]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal warehouse - receipts remained unchanged. The 09 and 01 contracts of coking coal decreased by 17 and 14 respectively, with a decline of 2.2% and 1.8% respectively [6]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 6.7 to 866.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The cleaned coal output decreased by 4.3 to 440.7 million tons, a decrease of 1.0% [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5 to 65.0 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1% [6]. Inventory - The cleaned coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 12.5 to 284.0 million tons, an increase of 4.64%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 20.8 to 798.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.1 to 774.0 million tons, an increase of 0.4% [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions and contracts have decreased. For example, the 72% FeSi ferrosilicon spot price in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5100 to 5050 yuan/ton [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions have changed slightly. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased from - 53.0 to - 426.5 [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased by 1.4 to 32.8, a decrease of 4.4%. The ferromanganese weekly output increased by 0.2 to 17.3 million tons, an increase of 0.9% [7]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 million tons, a decrease of 3.5%. The ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.4 to 12.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.9% [7]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.2 to 7.0 million tons, an increase of 3.3%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese increased by 0.9 to 19 million tons, an increase of 5.0% [7].