请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 12 月 05 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场震荡持平，TMT 板块收涨，消费板块回调。Wind 全 A 收涨 | | | | 0.01%，成交额 1.56 万亿元，中证 1000 指数上涨 0.01%，中证 500 指数上涨 | | | | 0.24%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.34%，上证 50 指数上涨 0.38%。随着 6 月以来的 | | | | 流动性行情告一段落，市场重新聚焦基本面逻辑，目前以 AI 为首的新质生 | | | | 产力题材普遍对未来三年的增长水平存在乐观预期，尤其是科技领域的上游 | | | | 硬件制造环节，供需错配下涨价预期明显，中期盈利能力可观。但是，对应 | | | 股指 | 题材自 6 月以来涨幅均较大，临近年底缺乏进一步事件性催化，自 11 月逐 | 震荡 | | | 渐进入震荡行情。另一方面，以消费和周期题材为首的传统经济领域仍然处 | | | | 在震荡复苏的过程中 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 12 月 04 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场震荡回调，TMT 和房地产板块跌幅居前。Wind 全 A 下跌 | | | | 0.72%，成交额 1.68 万亿元，中证 1000 指数下跌 0.89%，中证 500 指数下跌 | | | | 0.62%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.51%，上证 50 指数下跌 0.52%。随着 6 月以来的 | | | | 流动性行情告一段落，市场重新聚焦基本面逻辑，目前以 AI 为首的新质生 | | | | 产力题材普遍对未来三年的增长水平存在乐观预期，尤其是科技领域的上游 | | | | 硬件制造环节，供需错配下涨价预期明显，中期盈利能力可观。但是，对应 | | | 股指 | 题材自 6 月以来涨幅均较大，临近年底缺乏进一步事件性催化，自 11 月逐 | 震荡 | | | 渐进入震荡行情。另一方面，以消费和周期题材为首的传统经济领域仍然处 | | | | 在震荡复苏的过程中，尽管存在一些补涨的逻辑，但短期很难进入基本面牛 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Index: Volatile [1] - Treasury Bonds: Relatively Strong [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: After the liquidity-driven market since June ended, the market refocused on fundamental logic. New productive forces represented by AI in the technology upstream hardware manufacturing have significant price increase expectations due to supply-demand mismatch, with considerable medium-term profitability. However, related themes have risen significantly since June, lacking further event catalysts near the end of the year, and entered a volatile market in November. Traditional economic sectors like consumption and cyclical themes are still recovering, and it's difficult to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Market trading volume, volatility, and risk appetite are decreasing, and the index is expected to be volatile in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also have divergent expectations, with the actual profitability of AI being questioned, the U.S. government shutdown causing an economic data vacuum, and the Fed's hawkish stance on a December rate cut leading to a correction in U.S. tech stocks last week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board yesterday. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on November 26, with a net withdrawal of funds. The liquidity is reasonably abundant under the central bank's continuous support, but the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is low, and the expectation of a central bank rate cut is weak. The bond market lacks upward momentum. In the short term, there is a brief domestic economic data vacuum period in late November, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On November 26, 2025, IH rose 0.18% to 2,964.6, IF rose 0.45% to 4,493.0, IC rose 0.14% to 6,909.4, and IM rose 0.06% to 7,176.2 compared with the previous day [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: On November 26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.12% to 2,971.8, the CSI 300 rose 0.61% to 4,517.6, the CSI 500 rose 0.15% to 6,965.0, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.02% to 7,248.4 compared with the previous day [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On November 26, 2025, TS fell 0.05% to 102.37, TF fell 0.23% to 105.74, T fell 0.34% to 107.85, and TL fell 0.76% to 114.29 compared with the previous day [3]. 3.2 Market News - At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs today, regarding Japan's cabinet resolution on November 25 on the so - called "Taiwan issue," the spokesperson Mao Ning stated that Japan's prime minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan seriously violate the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan, damage the political foundation of bilateral relations, and challenge the post - war international order. China firmly opposes this. Japan's so - called "consistent position" is far from enough [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, their monthly basis trends, etc. [5][6][7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, and cross - period spreads of different maturities, as well as cross - variety spreads and capital interest rates [12][13][19] - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [21][22][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The A - share market closed lower with volatility yesterday. The liquidity rally since June is over, and the market focuses on fundamentals. New - quality productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the technology sector, but they lack event catalysts and are in a volatile phase. Traditional economic sectors are in a volatile recovery, and it's hard to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. The market volume, volatility, and risk appetite are decreasing, and the index is expected to be volatile in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expected divergence, and US tech stocks pulled back last week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed lower yesterday. The central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, achieving a net injection of 115 billion yuan. The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading strengthens the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is beneficial to the bond market. The economic outlook for the fourth quarter is stable, the short - term necessity of central bank interest rate cuts is low, and the "stock - bond seesaw" effect disturbs bond market sentiment. The bond market is expected to continue the volatile pattern [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: Yesterday, the A - share market was volatile and closed down. The Wind All - A index fell 0.3% with a trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes declined by 0.82% and 0.4% respectively, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes rose by 0.58% and 0.44% respectively. The new - quality productivity themes led by AI have good mid - term profitability expectations but lack short - term catalysts. Traditional economic sectors are in a volatile recovery, and the index is expected to be volatile in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also faced setbacks last week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Yesterday, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts fell by 0.40%, 0.06%, 0.03%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. After the expiration of 195.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, a net injection of 115 billion yuan was achieved. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 declined. The central bank's actions strengthen the expectation of sufficient funds, but the "stock - bond seesaw" effect disturbs sentiment. The bond market is expected to be volatile [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The IH rose 0.45% from 2,997.6 to 3,011.0, the IF increased 0.22% from 4,555.0 to 4,565.2, the IC decreased 0.35% from 7,079.8 to 7,054.8, and the IM dropped 0.73% from 7,351.8 to 7,298.2 [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 rose 0.58% from 3,003.0 to 3,020.3, the CSI 300 increased 0.44% from 4,568.2 to 4,588.3, the CSI 500 decreased 0.40% from 7,151.0 to 7,122.7, and the CSI 1000 dropped 0.82% from 7,448.1 to 7,387.2 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS fell 0.03% from 102.49 to 102.46, the TF decreased 0.04% from 105.92 to 105.88, the T dropped 0.07% from 108.50 to 108.43, and the TL declined 0.38% from 116.53 to 116.09 [3]. 3.3 Market News - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised and released the "Guidelines for the Application of Self - regulatory Rules for Funds of the Shanghai Stock Exchange No. 1 - Index Funds (Revised in November 2025)", which came into effect on November 19, 2025. For index funds with non - broad - based stock indexes as underlying indexes, several requirements need to be met, such as the number of constituent securities being no less than 30, the single - constituent security weight not exceeding 15% and the total weight of the top 5 constituent securities not exceeding 60%, etc. [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends [6][7][9]. 3.4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Charts include the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, and the basis and inter - period spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, as well as cross - variety spreads and capital interest rates [13][14][19]. 3.4.3 Exchange Rates - Charts show the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [22][23][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "sideways", and for government bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market oscillated and closed lower yesterday, with TMT performing well and coal and power equipment sectors correcting. The overall market is expected to be range - bound in the short term as the liquidity-driven market since June ended and the focus returns to fundamentals. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery, and overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. - Government bond futures closed higher yesterday. The central bank's actions and economic expectations have a positive impact on the bond market, but the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances. The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market closed down with Wind All - A dropping 0.93% and a trading volume of 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices all declined. New - quality productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the tech sector, but they lack catalysts and have entered a sideways trend since November. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery and are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. Government Bond Futures - Yesterday, government bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising. The central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 37 billion yuan. DR001 rose 2BP to 1.53%, and DR007 remained flat at 1.52%. The central bank's actions strengthen the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is positive for the bond market. However, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances, and the bond market is expected to oscillate [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - On November 18, 2025, IH dropped 0.39% to 2,997.6, IF dropped 0.58% to 4,555.0, IC dropped 0.89% to 7,079.8, and IM dropped 0.58% to 7,351.8 compared to November 17 [3]. Stock Indices - The SSE 50 dropped 0.30% to 3,003.0, the CSI 300 dropped 0.65% to 4,568.2, the CSI 500 dropped 1.17% to 7,151.0, and the CSI 1000 dropped 1.00% to 7,448.1 on November 18, 2025, compared to November 17 [3]. Government Bond Futures - On November 18, 2025, TS rose 0.01% to 102.49, TF rose 0.01% to 105.92, T rose 0.01% to 108.50, and TL rose 0.07% to 116.53 compared to November 17 [3] 3. Market News - As of the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims was 1,957,000, up from 1,947,000 the previous week. The US Federal government shutdown led to a lack of regular weekly data [4]. - China's Foreign Ministry held consultations with Japan's officials. China sternly protested against Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on China, urging Japan to retract the remarks and stop causing trouble on China - related issues [4] 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective basis trends [6][7][9] Government Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of government bond futures main contracts, bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund rates [13][14][19] Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [22][23][26]